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THEORY & PRACTICE FOR FUND MANAGERS FALL 2015 Volume 24 Number 3
Option-Writing Strategies
in a Low-Volatility Framework
D ONALD X. HE, JASON C. HSU , AND NEIL R UE
O
DonalD X. H e ver the last decade, the invest- highly leveraged exposure to the upside of the
is a portfolio risk analyst ment community has witnessed underlying stocks with very modest commit-
for Allianz Global Inves-
a rapid rise in the number of ment of capital. They not only have a lottery-
tors in San Diego, CA.
donald.he@allianzgi.com assets invested in low-volatility like positive skew but can also be employed
strategies.1 The low-volatility anomaly refers by leverage-constrained investors as a tool
Jason C. Hsu to the empirical observation that portfolios for increasing risk-adjusted portfolio returns.
is a faculty member comprising low-beta stocks tend to substan- These characteristics suggest that call options
at UCLA Anderson tially outperform their higher-beta counter- may be systematically overpriced.2
School of Management
and cofounder and vice
parts. This is a paradoxical outcome from the Covered call writing, in which inves-
chairman of Research perspective of the capital asset pricing model tors sell call options against their stock hold-
Affiliates LLC in Newport (CAPM). Given the increasing popularity ings as a means of enhancing portfolio return
Beach, CA. of low-volatility strategies, the anomaly is of and reducing risk,3 is a common investment
hsu@rallc.com more than theoretical interest; it offers poten- strategy that has been employed since the
tially intriguing investment opportunities. establishment of the Chicago Board Options
neil Rue
is managing director at Several behavioral finance hypotheses Exchange (CBOE) in 1973. It is often referred
Pension Consulting Alli- have been proposed to explain the low- to as a buy–write strategy because investors
ance in Portland, OR. volatility anomaly. One of the most widely seek to outperform their benchmark indexes
neilrue@pensionconsulting.com cited explanations—investors’ preference for by writing index call options against equity
lotterylike gambles—contends that individ- shares that they have bought long. The CBOE
uals prefer to speculate in stocks with high introduced the Buy–Write Monthly Index
volatility, especially those with high positive (BXM) in 2002 as a benchmark for evalu-
skewness. Another explanation argues that ating buy–write investment strategies.4
borrowing-constrained investors may use Buy–write strategies tend to exhibit
high-beta stocks to increase portfolio risk risk–return profiles that are similar to those
and expected return. Both behaviors create of low-volatility equity portfolios. To date,
excess demand for high-beta stocks, which however, studies on low-volatility investing
drives their prices up and their returns down have not included buy–write strategies. The
relative to low-beta stocks. objective of our research is to determine
Although studies of the low-volatility whether buy–write strategies have risk char-
anomaly have focused almost exclusively on acteristics that are sufficiently different from
equities, industry practitioners have extended stock-only low-volatility strategies to pro-
their low-volatility offerings to include cov- vide diversification benefits to low-volatility
ered call option strategies. Call options provide investors.
Source: OptionMetrics.
eXHibit 2
Risk and Return Characteristics, February 1996–December 2012
a
In 72 of 203 months, S&P 500 had a monthly return greater than 2%; conditional returns show the average of the 72 monthly returns of the four
portfolios.
b
In 51 of 203 months, S&P 500 had a monthly return worse than –2%; conditional returns show the average of the 51 monthly returns of the four
portfolios.
Source: OptionMetrics.
eXHibit 3
Monthly Lognormal Return Distributions, February 1996–December 2012
Source: OptionMetrics.
eXHibit 4
Monthly Risk and Return Statistics, February 1996–December 2012
ITM = in the money; OTM = out of the money; PCA = principle component analysis.
Sources: Chow et al. [2014] and OptionMetrics.
recovered (particularly versus the 3mo-1mo buy–write) adjusted alpha reported in Exhibit 6. The premium from
during the subsequent bear market. selling positive skew also contributes to the factor-ad-
justed alpha.
Factor Analysis When BAB is specified as a factor, the low-volatility
equity strategies do not exhibit statistically significant
An augmented Fama–French–Carhart four-factor factor-adjusted alpha. Frazzini and Pedersen [2014] pro-
model (FFC-4) is useful for analyzing the compara- posed BAB to potentially capture the combined effect of
tive performance of the buy–write and low-volatility the preference for lottery and leverage aversion or con-
strategies in greater depth. Chow et al. [2014] found straints on the cross-section of equities. However, the
that, in addition to the standard FFC-4 factors, low- buy–write strategies do not load on BAB, indicating that
volatility strategies have exposure to BAB and duration. the two (behavioral) effects do not express themselves in
Exhibit 6 shows the factor regression results based on the equity market and the options market in a correlated
the corresponding six-factor model. way. Nor does the buy–write strategy load on the value
The market betas of the buy–write and low-vol- factor, which is the primary contributor to the return
atility equity portfolios alike are substantially below outperformance of low-volatility equity strategies. The
unity; indeed, the 3mo-1mo buy–write has a market existence of factor-adjusted alpha and the differences in
beta of 0.51, meaningfully below that of the low-vola- factor loading suggest that the buy–write strategy can be
tility equity strategies. However, it is important to note blended with a low-volatility equity strategy to create
that the beta for a buy–write strategy varies over time meaningful diversification.
in a mechanical way: When the market rallies, the buy–
write portfolio beta continues to decline toward zero. Sector Concentration
This negative convexity is known as negative gamma in
option pricing. The gamma effect cannot be measured A common complaint about simple low-volatility
by the linear factor models that are popular in standard equity strategies is their substantial concentrations in the
asset pricing, but insofar as this undesirable negative utility and financial sectors. This allocation exposes the
gamma produces a premium, it partially explains the portfolio to industry shocks, which are not known to pro-
economically large and statistically significant factor- vide a risk premium over the long horizon. In Exhibit 7,
eXHibit 7
RMSE of Rolling 36-Month Industry Betas Based on S&P 500 Benchmark, January 1999–December 2012
*Represents the portfolio with RMSE that is most statistically different from zero in each specific industry.
Sources: Chow et al. [2014] and OptionMetrics, and Kenneth French Data Library.
we computed the active industry risk compared with the the option into the P/L due to market movement (delta
S&P 500 using rolling 36-month regression with the 12 and gamma), implied volatility (vega), and time decay
industry portfolios as independent variables.14 We report (theta). To be specific, the daily P/L of the option in
the root-mean-square error (RMSE) between the time the three-month monthly rebalancing portfolio can be
series of measured industry betas of the selected strategy approximated using the following formula:
portfolio and that of the S&P 500.
As expected, the low-volatility strategies exhibit Option P/L on day t + 1
significantly larger variances in industry exposure than = C t +1 − C t ≈ ∆ * ( I t +1 − I t ) + ν * ( σ t +1 − σ t )
the S&P 500. This is especially true for the utility, finan-
+Θ * ( τt +1 − τt ) + 0.5 * Γ * (I t +1 − I t )2
cial, nondurable, and energy sectors, which are often
overweights, and for technology, which is usually a sig-
where
nificant underweight for low-volatility equity strate-
gies. These active sector risks were not present in the
∆, v, Θ, Γ represent Delta, Vega, Theta, and
buy–write strategy.
Gamma, respectively;
It = the underlying S&P 500 price on day t;
Option Attribution Analysis σt = the implied volatility of the option on day t;
τt = time to maturity on day t.
Although the factor analysis shows that the buy–
write portfolio has different risk factor exposures than the
Notice that the interest rate effect (called rho in
low-volatility equity strategies, the linear regression fails
the options literature) is not included here for the sake of
to capture higher moment features, such as the negative
simplicity, but the omission has little effect on the anal-
skewness of the buy–write strategy. To further investi-
ysis. This attribution based only on four Greeks accounts
gate the unexplained alphas in the factor regression, we
for 98% of the total option P/L. The daily portfolio
use the Greeks to decompose the profit and loss (P/L) of
Source: OptionMetrics.
on substantial negative skewness (–3.25) and positive Finally, the slightly negative return driven by the
kurtosis (16.23). In other words, the call option tends change of implied volatility is reasonable intuitively.
to be “overpriced” because option writers require an Writing an option is essentially shorting implied vola-
extra skew risk premium for accepting a potentially tility, a pricing input that is especially undesirable as it
unlimited loss, clearly suggesting that mean–variance rapidly increases in times of crisis. Nonetheless, over the
dominance15 is an inappropriate measure of perfor- course of the market meltdown, implied volatility as a
mance for portfolios that include options (Leland measure of market sentiment will reverse its uptrend
[1999]). and return to a normal level. The large negative return
eXHibit 9
Daily Implied Volatility of the Three-Month ATM Call Option, February 1996–December 2012
Source: OptionMetrics.
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Grube, R.C., D.B. Panton, and J.M. Terrell. “Risks and To order reprints of this article, please contact Dewey Palmieri
Rewards in Covered Call Positions.” The Journal of Portfolio at dpalmieri@ iijournals.com or 212-224-3675.
Management, Vol. 5, No. 2 (Winter 1979), pp. 64-68.
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