ESCENARIOS

ESCENARIO PESIMISTA PROBABLE OPTMISITA

Demanda Descenso del 10% Crecimiento del 10% Crecimiento del 10%
Precio Incremento del 2.5% Incremento del 3% Incremento del 3.5%

Materia prima
13 10.21 9.5
(quinua)

COK 5.6% 5.67% 5.7%

ESCENARIO PROBABLE

2018 2,019 2,020 2,021 2,022 2,023

S/. S/. S/. S/.
(+) Ventas S/. 3,088,086.00
1,339,364.00 1,599,480.00 2,438,654.40 2,759,199.20
Unidades Vendidas (unid.) 257570 296200 435474 475724 514681
Porcentaje 100%
Unidades Vendidas (unid.) 257570 296200 435474 475724 514681
Precio (S/.) S/. 5.20 S/. 5.40 S/. 5.60 S/. 5.80 S/. 6.00

S/. S/.
(-)
Costos Directos 338,965.29 S/. 366,921.39 S/. 475,887.10 505,188.31 S/. 533,672.82
S/. S/.
100% 338,965.29 S/. 366,921.39 S/. 475,887.10 505,188.31 S/. 533,672.82
S/. S/.
*Materiales 170,458.29 S/. 196,023.39 S/. 288,194.10 314,831.31 S/. 340,612.82
**Piña (KG.) S/. 1.18 S/. 57,124.13 S/. 65,691.53 S/. 96,579.86 S/. 105,506.54 S/. 114,146.47
**Almidon (KG.) S/. 5.60 S/. 7,514.86 S/. 8,641.93 S/. 12,705.39 S/. 13,879.72 S/. 15,016.33
S/.
**Harina Quinua (KG.) 10.21 S/. 10,282.48 S/. 11,824.63 S/. 17,384.60 S/. 18,991.43 S/. 20,546.63
**Azúcar(KG.) S/. 2.80 S/. 7,846.61 S/. 9,023.44 S/. 13,266.28 S/. 14,492.46 S/. 15,679.24
S/.
**Sorbato de potasio(KG.) 20.00 S/. 103.03 S/. 118.48 S/. 174.19 S/. 190.29 S/. 205.87
S/.
**Agua (KG.) 0.001 S/. 13.38 S/. 15.38 S/. 22.62 S/. 24.71 S/. 26.73
**Envases de vidrio (unid.) S/. 0.14 S/. 36,059.80 S/. 41,468.00 S/. 60,966.36 S/. 66,601.36 S/. 72,055.34
**Tapas (unid.) S/. 0.05 S/. 12,878.50 S/. 14,810.00 S/. 21,773.70 S/. 23,786.20 S/. 25,734.05
**Etiquetas (unid.) S/. 0.03 S/. 7,727.10 S/. 8,886.00 S/. 13,064.22 S/. 14,271.72 S/. 15,440.43
**Cajas (unid./24) S/. 0.12 S/. 30,908.40 S/. 35,544.00 S/. 52,256.88 S/. 57,086.88 S/. 61,761.72
 S/. S/.
*Mano de Obra 168,507.00 S/. 170,898.00 S/. 187,693.00 190,357.00 S/. 193,060.00
**Asistente de Calidad (1 op.) S/. 28,464.00 S/. 28,876.00 S/. 29,293.00 S/. 29,718.00 S/. 30,148.00
**Asistente de Almacén (2 op.) S/. 47,780.00 S/. 48,466.00 S/. 49,162.00 S/. 49,869.00 S/. 50,587.00
**Supervisor de Producción (1 op.) S/. 22,365.00 S/. 22,686.00 S/. 23,010.00 S/. 23,340.00 S/. 23,675.00
**Operarios (5 op.) S/. 69,898.00 S/. 70,870.00 S/. 86,228.00 S/. 87,430.00 S/. 88,650.00
*CIF
**Depreciación S/. 6,575.00 S/. 6,575.00 S/. 6,575.00 S/. 6,575.00 S/. 6,575.00
***Marmita S/. 864.00 S/. 864.00 S/. 864.00 S/. 864.00 S/. 864.00
***Pulpeadora S/. 686.00 S/. 686.00 S/. 686.00 S/. 686.00 S/. 686.00
***Escaldadora S/. 381.00 S/. 381.00 S/. 381.00 S/. 381.00 S/. 381.00
***Licuadora Industrial S/. 695.00 S/. 695.00 S/. 695.00 S/. 695.00 S/. 695.00
***Mezcladora Industrial S/. 424.00 S/. 424.00 S/. 424.00 S/. 424.00 S/. 424.00
***Lavadora de frutas por aspersión e
inmersión S/. 305.00 S/. 305.00 S/. 305.00 S/. 305.00 S/. 305.00
***Llenadora S/. 1,568.00 S/. 1,568.00 S/. 1,568.00 S/. 1,568.00 S/. 1,568.00
***Etiquetadora S/. 932.00 S/. 932.00 S/. 932.00 S/. 932.00 S/. 932.00
***Autoclave S/. 720.00 S/. 720.00 S/. 720.00 S/. 720.00 S/. 720.00
S/. S/.
**Mano de Obra Indirecta 319,675.00 S/. 319,675.00 S/. 319,675.00 319,675.00 S/. 319,675.00
*Gastos Administrativos y Ventas 609,545 666,432 918,822 993,176 1,087,968
100% 609,545 666,432 918,822 993,176 1,087,968
(-) Gastos de Operación 1,274,760 1,523,926 1,902,077 2,008,396 2,134,376
Utilidad Operativa 64,604 75,554 536,577 750,803 953,710
(-) Gastos Financieros 22,354 18,823 14,623 9,619 3,650
Utilidad Antes Impuesto 42,250 56,731 521,954 741,184 950,060
(-) Impuesto ala Renta 12,675 17,019 156,586 222,355 285,018
 Utilidad Despues Impuesto 29,575 39,711 365,368 518,829 665,042
(+) Gastos no Desembolsables 6,575 6,575 6,575 6,575 6,575
(-) Inversiones 439,543 91,750
(+) Valor Residual Neto 100% -439,543 188,955
Flujo de caja económico -439543 36,150 138,036 371,943 525,404 860,572
(+) Préstamo 140,000
(-) Amortización 19,460 22,991 27,191 32,195 38,163
(-) Intereses 22,354 18,823 14,623 9,619 3,650
(+) Escudo Fiscal 6,594 5,553 4,314 2,838 1,077
Flujo de caja financiero -299,543 930 101,775 334,443 486,428 819,836

COK= 5.67%
VAN= 1,108,308
TIR 47.37%
ESCENARIO PESIMISTA

2018 2,019 2,020 2,021 2,022 2,023

S/. S/. S/. S/.
(+) Ventas S/. 2,658,761.92
1,205,427.60 1,420,871.40 2,141,193.00 2,397,576.71
Unidades Vendidas (unid.) 231813 266580 391927 428152 463213
Porcentaje 90%
Unidades Vendidas (unid.) 257570 296200 435474 475724 514681
Precio (S/.) S/. 5.20 S/. 5.33 S/. 5.46 S/. 5.60 S/. 5.74
2.5% S/. 5.33 S/. 5.46 S/. 5.60 S/. 5.74
S/.
(-)
Costos Directos 324,448.29 S/. 350,227.15 S/. 451,343.17 S/. 478,375.84 S/. 504,664.68
S/.
100% 324,448.29 S/. 350,227.15 S/. 451,343.17 S/. 478,375.84 S/. 504,664.68
S/.
*Materiales 155,941.29 S/. 179,329.15 S/. 263,650.17 S/. 288,018.84 S/. 311,604.68
**Piña (KG.) S/. 1.18 S/. 51,411.72 S/. 59,122.38 S/. 86,921.87 S/. 94,955.89 S/. 102,731.82
**Almidon (KG.) S/. 5.60 S/. 6,763.38 S/. 7,777.74 S/. 11,434.85 S/. 12,491.75 S/. 13,514.70
**Harina Quinua (KG.) S/. 13.00 S/. 11,783.05 S/. 13,550.26 S/. 19,921.63 S/. 21,762.95 S/. 23,545.11
**Azúcar(KG.) S/. 2.80 S/. 7,061.95 S/. 8,121.09 S/. 11,939.65 S/. 13,043.21 S/. 14,111.32
**Sorbato de potasio(KG.) S/. 20.00 S/. 92.73 S/. 106.63 S/. 156.77 S/. 171.26 S/. 185.29
**Agua (KG.) S/. 0.001 S/. 12.04 S/. 13.84 S/. 20.35 S/. 22.24 S/. 24.06
**Envases de vidrio (unid.) S/. 0.14 S/. 32,453.82 S/. 37,321.20 S/. 54,869.72 S/. 59,941.22 S/. 64,849.81
**Tapas (unid.) S/. 0.05 S/. 11,590.65 S/. 13,329.00 S/. 19,596.33 S/. 21,407.58 S/. 23,160.65
**Etiquetas (unid.) S/. 0.03 S/. 6,954.39 S/. 7,997.40 S/. 11,757.80 S/. 12,844.55 S/. 13,896.39
**Cajas (unid./24) S/. 0.12 S/. 27,817.56 S/. 31,989.60 S/. 47,031.19 S/. 51,378.19 S/. 55,585.55
 S/.
*Mano de Obra 168,507.00 S/. 170,898.00 S/. 187,693.00 S/. 190,357.00 S/. 193,060.00
**Asistente de Calidad (1 op.) S/. 28,464.00 S/. 28,876.00 S/. 29,293.00 S/. 29,718.00 S/. 30,148.00
**Asistente de Almacén (2 op.) S/. 47,780.00 S/. 48,466.00 S/. 49,162.00 S/. 49,869.00 S/. 50,587.00
**Supervisor de Producción (1 op.) S/. 22,365.00 S/. 22,686.00 S/. 23,010.00 S/. 23,340.00 S/. 23,675.00
**Operarios (5 op.) S/. 69,898.00 S/. 70,870.00 S/. 86,228.00 S/. 87,430.00 S/. 88,650.00
*CIF
**Depreciación S/. 6,575.00 S/. 6,575.00 S/. 6,575.00 S/. 6,575.00 S/. 6,575.00
***Marmita S/. 864.00 S/. 864.00 S/. 864.00 S/. 864.00 S/. 864.00
***Pulpeadora S/. 686.00 S/. 686.00 S/. 686.00 S/. 686.00 S/. 686.00
***Escaldadora S/. 381.00 S/. 381.00 S/. 381.00 S/. 381.00 S/. 381.00
***Licuadora Industrial S/. 695.00 S/. 695.00 S/. 695.00 S/. 695.00 S/. 695.00
***Mezcladora Industrial S/. 424.00 S/. 424.00 S/. 424.00 S/. 424.00 S/. 424.00
***Lavadora de frutas por aspersión e
inmersión S/. 305.00 S/. 305.00 S/. 305.00 S/. 305.00 S/. 305.00
***Llenadora S/. 1,568.00 S/. 1,568.00 S/. 1,568.00 S/. 1,568.00 S/. 1,568.00
***Etiquetadora S/. 932.00 S/. 932.00 S/. 932.00 S/. 932.00 S/. 932.00
***Autoclave S/. 720.00 S/. 720.00 S/. 720.00 S/. 720.00 S/. 720.00
S/.
**Mano de Obra Indirecta 319,675.00 S/. 319,675.00 S/. 319,675.00 S/. 319,675.00 S/. 319,675.00
*Gastos Administrativos y Ventas 609,545 666,432 918,822 993,176 1,087,968
100% 609,545 666,432 918,822 993,176 1,087,968
(-) Gastos de Operación 1,260,243 1,507,232 1,877,533 1,981,584 2,105,368
Utilidad Operativa -54,816 -86,361 263,660 415,993 553,394
(-) Gastos Financieros 22,354 18,823 14,623 9,619 3,650
Utilidad Antes Impuesto -77,170 -105,184 249,037 406,374 549,744
(-) Impuesto ala Renta 0 0 74,711 121,912 164,923
 Utilidad Despues Impuesto -77,170 -105,184 174,326 284,462 384,821
(+) Gastos no Desembolsables 6,575 6,575 6,575 6,575 6,575
(-) Inversiones 439,543 91,750
(+) Valor Residual Neto 100% -439,543 188,955
Flujo de caja económico -439543 -70,595 -6,859 180,901 291,037 580,351
(+) Préstamo 140,000
(-) Amortización 19,460 22,991 27,191 32,195 38,163
(-) Intereses 22,354 18,823 14,623 9,619 3,650
(+) Escudo Fiscal 6,594 5,553 4,314 2,838 1,077
Flujo de caja financiero -299,543 -105,815 -43,120 143,401 252,061 539,615

COK= 5.60%
VAN= 317,065
TIR 18.54%
ESCENARIO OPTIMISTA

2018 2,019 2,020 2,021 2,022 2,023

S/. S/. S/. S/.
(+) Ventas S/. 3,378,279.39
1,473,300.40 1,753,563.24 2,668,326.44 3,016,977.98
Unidades Vendidas (unid.) 283327 325820 479021 523296 566149
Porcentaje 110%
Unidades Vendidas (unid.) 257570 296200 435474 475724 514681
Precio (S/.) S/. 5.20 S/. 5.38 S/. 5.57 S/. 5.77 S/. 5.97
3.5% S/. 5.38 S/. 5.57 S/. 5.77 S/. 5.97
S/. S/.
(-)
Costos Directos 355,224.57 S/. 385,619.22 S/. 503,376.69 535,218.71 S/. 566,162.41
S/. S/.
100% 355,224.57 S/. 385,619.22 S/. 503,376.69 535,218.71 S/. 566,162.41
S/. S/.
*Materiales 186,717.57 S/. 214,721.22 S/. 315,683.69 344,861.71 S/. 373,102.41
S/.
S/. 1.18
**Piña (KG.) S/. 62,836.55 S/. 72,260.69 S/. 106,237.85 116,057.20 S/. 125,561.11
**Almidon (KG.) S/. 5.60 S/. 8,266.35 S/. 9,506.12 S/. 13,975.93 S/. 15,267.70 S/. 16,517.97
**Harina Quinua (KG.) S/. 9.50 S/. 10,524.18 S/. 12,102.58 S/. 17,793.25 S/. 19,437.84 S/. 21,029.61
**Azúcar(KG.) S/. 2.80 S/. 8,631.27 S/. 9,925.78 S/. 14,592.91 S/. 15,941.70 S/. 17,247.17
**Sorbato de potasio(KG.) S/. 20.00 S/. 113.33 S/. 130.33 S/. 191.61 S/. 209.32 S/. 226.46
**Agua (KG.) S/. 0.001 S/. 14.71 S/. 16.92 S/. 24.88 S/. 27.18 S/. 29.40
**Envases de vidrio (unid.) S/. 0.14 S/. 39,665.78 S/. 45,614.80 S/. 67,063.00 S/. 73,261.50 S/. 79,260.87
**Tapas (unid.) S/. 0.05 S/. 14,166.35 S/. 16,291.00 S/. 23,951.07 S/. 26,164.82 S/. 28,307.46
**Etiquetas (unid.) S/. 0.03 S/. 8,499.81 S/. 9,774.60 S/. 14,370.64 S/. 15,698.89 S/. 16,984.47
**Cajas (unid./24) S/. 0.12 S/. 33,999.24 S/. 39,098.40 S/. 57,482.57 S/. 62,795.57 S/. 67,937.89
S/. S/.
*Mano de Obra 168,507.00 S/. 170,898.00 S/. 187,693.00 190,357.00 S/. 193,060.00
**Asistente de Calidad (1 op.) S/. 28,464.00 S/. 28,876.00 S/. 29,293.00 S/. 29,718.00 S/. 30,148.00
**Asistente de Almacén (2 op.) S/. 47,780.00 S/. 48,466.00 S/. 49,162.00 S/. 49,869.00 S/. 50,587.00
**Supervisor de Producción (1 op.) S/. 22,365.00 S/. 22,686.00 S/. 23,010.00 S/. 23,340.00 S/. 23,675.00
**Operarios (5 op.) S/. 69,898.00 S/. 70,870.00 S/. 86,228.00 S/. 87,430.00 S/. 88,650.00
*CIF
**Depreciación S/. 6,575.00 S/. 6,575.00 S/. 6,575.00 S/. 6,575.00 S/. 6,575.00
***Marmita S/. 864.00 S/. 864.00 S/. 864.00 S/. 864.00 S/. 864.00
***Pulpeadora S/. 686.00 S/. 686.00 S/. 686.00 S/. 686.00 S/. 686.00
***Escaldadora S/. 381.00 S/. 381.00 S/. 381.00 S/. 381.00 S/. 381.00
***Licuadora Industrial S/. 695.00 S/. 695.00 S/. 695.00 S/. 695.00 S/. 695.00
***Mezcladora Industrial S/. 424.00 S/. 424.00 S/. 424.00 S/. 424.00 S/. 424.00
***Lavadora de frutas por aspersión e
inmersión S/. 305.00 S/. 305.00 S/. 305.00 S/. 305.00 S/. 305.00
***Llenadora S/. 1,568.00 S/. 1,568.00 S/. 1,568.00 S/. 1,568.00 S/. 1,568.00
***Etiquetadora S/. 932.00 S/. 932.00 S/. 932.00 S/. 932.00 S/. 932.00
***Autoclave S/. 720.00 S/. 720.00 S/. 720.00 S/. 720.00 S/. 720.00
S/. S/.
**Mano de Obra Indirecta 319,675.00 S/. 319,675.00 S/. 319,675.00 319,675.00 S/. 319,675.00
 *Gastos Administrativos y Ventas 609,545 666,432 918,822 993,176 1,087,968
100% 609,545 666,432 918,822 993,176 1,087,968
(-) Gastos de Operación 1,291,020 1,542,624 1,929,567 2,038,427 2,166,865
Utilidad Operativa 182,281 210,939 738,760 978,551 1,211,414
(-) Gastos Financieros 22,354 18,823 14,623 9,619 3,650
Utilidad Antes Impuesto 159,927 192,116 724,137 968,932 1,207,764
(-) Impuesto ala Renta 47,978 57,635 217,241 290,680 362,329
Utilidad Despues Impuesto 111,949 134,481 506,896 678,253 845,435
(+) Gastos no Desembolsables 6,575 6,575 6,575 6,575 6,575
(-) Inversiones 439,543 91,750
(+) Valor Residual Neto 100% -439,543 188,955
Flujo de caja económico -439543 118,524 232,806 513,471 684,828 1,040,965
(+) Préstamo 140,000
(-) Amortización 19,460 22,991 27,191 32,195 38,163
(-) Intereses 22,354 18,823 14,623 9,619 3,650
(+) Escudo Fiscal 6,594 5,553 4,314 2,838 1,077
Flujo de caja financiero -299,543 83,304 196,545 475,971 645,852 1,000,229

COK= 5.70%
VAN= 1,653,368
TIR 66.17%
RESULTADOS DE LOS 3 ESCENARIOS:

ESCENARIOS PESIMISTA PROBABLE OPTIMISTA

VAN 317,065 1,108,308 1,653,368

TIR 18.54% 47.37% 66.17%