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9/13/05
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22.38 PROBABILITY AND ITS APPLICATIONS TO

RELIABILITY, QUALITY CONTROL AND RISK ASSESSMENT
Fall 2005

PROBLEM SET #1 Due Sept. 20, 2005

1. We began development of a master logic diagram for the top event hurricane-induced
death by drowning in New Orleans. In doing this we mainly focused upon flooding
affecting persons who did not evacuate before arrival of a hurricane. Please complete
this exercise in the form of an event tree. Identify any important factors omitted from
your analysis. What are the minimal cut sets of the top event?

2. Obtain an expression for ( A + B + C) in terms of A, B and C ; where A, B and C are binary

events.

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3. For the pumping system example from class, what are the minimal cut sets? If the support
systems providing electricity, control and cooling were made redundant and separated, how
might dependencies remain affecting their respective failures?

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22.38: Problem Set #1 Solutions
Problem 1: (see previous page for fault tree)

Factors omitted in tree analysis:

- trust in evacuation notice importance
- busses available and operable that aren’t being used
- Total population of city
- Wealth, education, location
- Physical capabilities
- Preparations
- Occupation
- Storm characteristics
- Levee characteristics
- Shipping locations and security
- Air temperature

Also, other forms of death having frequency amplified by flooding:

- illness
- murder
- untreated accidental injury
- fall from height
- hypothermia
- snake/alligator/dog attack
Problem 1, continued:

Minimal Cut Sets:

Any Binary Combination of A and B:

A:
Levee break due to human action
Levee break due to normal operation
Levee break due to wind load
Excessive rain erosion
Human action erosion
Leak erosion
Overtopping erosion
Dam-failure
Rain erosion
Storm surge

B:
Assigned AND abandoned
Imprisoned AND abandoned
Sick AND abandoned
Child AND abandoned
Injured driver AND abandoned
No-license/knowledge driver AND abandoned
Fuel freezes
Fuel contamination
Mechanical failure of pump
No electricity for fuel pump
Operator failure
Leakage depletion of fuel
Usage depletion of fuel
Flooding of roads
Traffic
Weather bad driving conditions
2nd party vehicle inoperable AND person vehicle unavailable
2nd party vehicle inoperable AND person vehicle inoperable
2nd party vehicle unavailable AND person vehicle unavailable
2nd party vehicle unavailable AND person vehicle inoperable
Won’t move – personal
Won’t move – conditional (family AND pets)
Didn’t receive Evacuation notice (language barrier OR not receiver OR no notice OR
inoperable receiver)
Problem 2:
_ _ _
A+B+C = A*B*C

Problem 3:

E
C
CO
P1 * T2
P1 * P2
MCS P1 * V2
T1 * P2
T1 * T2
T1 * V2
V1 * P2
V1 * T2
V1 * V2

If support systems were made redundant, there are still common-cause failures (like
manufacturing defects, environmental conditions exceeding design limits, etc.) that create
dependencies between two trains. There are also other common-cause failures between
the two trains that are component-independent (like wrong type of fuel may have been
supplied, fuel tank empty/not refilled, testing/maintenance procedures wrong, etc.)