Strong imports in East Asia and the United States of

America kept global shrimp trade firm

14/03/2018
The report analyses the market situation until September 2017

The moderate increase in global farmed shrimp production was balanced with large
imports in China, Viet Nam, the United States of America, Japan and the Republic of
Korea. Export price was stable throughout 2017.

Supply

The official 2017 data for farmed shrimp production have not been published yet. However,
aquaculture industry analysts, including shrimp feed producers, indicated moderate increases in
farmed shrimp production during the review period. The major producers were China, India,
Ecuador, Viet Nam and Indonesia with varied trends.

Production in China did not recover since the EMS disease occurrence in 2012. The preliminary
estimate suggested 10–20 percent reduction in Chinese farmed shrimp production in 2017,
compared with 600 000 tonnes harvested in 2016. Poor quality broodstock and seed coupled
with the extreme hot weather affected shrimp aquaculture in the main producing regions of
Guangdong, Hainan and Guangxi. Increased production in the northern region was inadequate
to offset the overall supply deficit, while domestic demand surged. Subsequently, imports
increased in the first nine months of 2017 compared with the same period in 2016.

India reported a production of farmed shrimp of about 500 000 tonnes during the review period,
compared with the 400 000 tonnes in 2016. The estimated production in Ecuador was 400 000
tonnes, some 14 percent higher than in the equivalent period in 2016.

According to the Viet Nam News Agency, farmed shrimp production in 2017 totalled 237 000
tonnes in Viet Nam.

The 2017 production in Thailand is likely lower than the earlier forecast of 330 000 tonnes.
Affected by unfavourable weather and shrimp health issues, production in Indonesia and
Bangladesh also suffered which was reflected in the declining shrimp exports from these
countries.

Argentina recorded bumper sea catches of shrimp that exceeded 200 000 tonnes during the first
three quarters of 2017.

Exports

During the first three quarters of 2017, exports increased from India, Viet Nam, Ecuador and
China compared with the same period in 2016, but declined from Thailand because of supply
constraints.

In India, strong demand from North American and East Asian markets supported higher shrimp
exports at 420 500 tonnes (+33 percent), making India the top world exporter of shrimp. During
the January-September 2017 period the average monthly exports ranged from 47 000 to 50 000
tonnes, mostly raw shell-on and peeled shrimp. The top destinations were the United States of
America, Viet Nam, the EU28, Japan and the United Arab Emirates; exports also increased to
China and the Republic of Korea.
Vietnamese exports were estimated at 390 000 tonnes (+11 percent) during January-September
2017, comprising domestic shrimp and imported raw materials. The top market was China, with
a 50–60 percent share of the total exports (200 000 to 230 000 tonnes), which was 25 percent
more than in the same period in 2016. The other top markets were the United States of America
(-7 percent), the EU28 (+14 percent), Japan (+19 percent) and the Republic of Korea (+11
percent). Viet Nam is a leading exporter of value-added shrimp to Japan, the United States of
America and the EU28.

Ecuadorian shrimp exports (323 655 tonnes) increased by 17 percent during January-
September 2017, due to the increased sales to Asian markets, namely Viet Nam (+37 percent at
162 165 tonnes), China (+42 percent at 13 000 tonnes), the Republic of Korea (+42 percent at
6 300 tonnes), while exports to the EU28 (-2 percent at 70 200 tonnes) and the United States of
America (-1.3 percent at 54 900 tonnes) declined marginally.

Compared with the corresponding period in 2016, Chinese exports grew only slightly (+1.5
percent, totalling 137 730 tonnes) during the review period, due to the decline in raw shrimp
exports (-5 percent). Around 52 percent of the total shrimp exports (71 000 tonnes) were value-
added products, in part produced from imported raw material.

In Thailand, total shrimp exports, of which 46 percent consisted of value-added products, fell by
10 percent. Raw material shortage affected exports to the main market, the United States of
America. Supplies to the EU28 declined significantly since the withdrawal of the preferential
tariff or Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) on Thai products.

Indonesian exports decreased to the United States of America, Japan and Europe, during the
review period. Exports from Bangladesh also dropped, whereas Malaysian exports increased
(+9 percent at 27 000 tonnes).

In Latin America, shrimp exports increased in Honduras (+4 percent at 42 300 tonnes) and
Mexico (+15 percent at 15 000 tonnes), but declined in Nicaragua (-32 percent at 15 260
tonnes).

Argentina, one of the leading suppliers of sea-caught shrimp, reported a 16 percent export
growth at 44 950 tonnes, due to the increased exports to the United States of America, Japan,
Viet Nam, Thailand, the Russian Federation, even though exports dropped to the large markets
EU28 and China (-15 percent each).

Imports

The positive trend in global shrimp trade during the first three quarters of 2017 was due to the
strong imports in East Asian markets namely Viet Nam, China (Mainland and Taiwan Province),
and the Republic of Korea. There were also increased imports in the two large markets of the
United States of America and Japan (+6 percent each). Imports also increased in Canada (+10
percent at 34 300 tonnes) and Mexico (+19 percent at 17 000 tonnes).

The 9 percent rise in the EU28 shrimp imports could be attributed to the increased intra-EU28
trade, while the extra-EU28 imports declined by the same percentage. Outside the EU28,
imports increased in Norway, Switzerland and the Russian Federation.

China and Viet Nam remained the attractive markets to shrimp producers and exporters
worldwide. During the review period, total supply of foreign shrimp to China increased
significantly, while imports were high in Vietnam. Although the United States of America and the
EU28 remained the largest import markets, East Asian markets mostly absorbed the additional
production in Asia and Latin America during the first nine months of 2017.

Japan

Consumer demand for shrimp in Japan seemed to be recovering after many years, which
reflected on higher imports during the first nine months of 2017 (+6 percent at 163 545 tonnes).
The market continued to import more value-added products, reaching a 27 percent share of the
total shrimp imports during the review period. Imports increased from Thailand, Viet Nam,
Indonesia and China. A major share of Japanese raw shrimp imports consisted of semi-
processed nobashi or peeled tail-on shrimp, butterfly cut and other types of peeled shrimp used
by the catering trade and also in households. There was also a strong demand for top quality
head-on shrimp (large size farmed black tiger and sea caught shrimp) at the high-end catering
trade.

Shrimp consumption was good during the end of the year festivities with a business increase in
the catering trade.

United States of America

Shrimp remained the most preferred seafood in the United States of America, according to the
National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS). Per capita consumption in 2016 increased by 2.5
percent at 4.10 lb compared with 2015. This trend is likely to continue as supplies of domestic
and imported shrimp were record-high in 2017, supported by strong consumer demand. US
consumers experienced increased disposable income in 2017 backed by the rebound of the
national economy.

The average retail price of shrimp in 2017 was stable and lower than other popular seafood
such as salmon. During January-September 2017, the average import price of shrimp increased
by 5.15 percent, whereas the average retail price of shrimp was 3–4 percent higher than 2016.

Shrimp imports increased by 9.6 percent in volume during the review period compared with
2016, while the value rose by 15 percent to USD 4.5 billion. Imports of raw shell-on remained
the same as in 2016, but increased for peeled, breaded and other processed shrimp.

India marked a 42 percent increase in exports to the US market. This top seller compensated
for the supply declines from Indonesia (-3 percent), Ecuador (-1.4 percent), Thailand and Viet
Nam (-7 percent each). Imports from China increased by 39 percent during the review period.

European Union (Member Organization)

Shrimp imports in the EU28 totalled 547 000 tonnes during the review period. Extra-EU28
imports dropped by 4 percent, totalling 403 800 tonnes, during January-September 2017, which
could be an indication of a weaker demand trend in this market. The intra-EU28 imports were
mostly re-exports of shrimp sourced from non-member countries.

Imports declined in most of the top markets during the assessment period. Spain imported
111 675 tonnes (-1 percent), followed by France with 79 180 tonnes (-2 percent), Denmark with
8 235 tonnes (-4 percent), the United Kingdom with 55 870 tonnes (-3 percent), the Netherlands
with 50 135 tonnes (-18 percent) and Italy with 45 880 tonnes (-9 percent). Except from Viet
Nam, Bangladesh and Venezuela, supplies declined from most the sources. During the
Christmas season, consumer demand remained low confirming a weaker shrimp market in
2017.

Outside the EU28, there were increased shrimp imports in Norway (+31 percent at 13 700
tonnes) and in Switzerland (+10 percent at 6 000 tonnes). In the Russian Federation, imports
increased by 23 percent at 26 000 tonnes, with larger supplies from Greenland, India, China,
Ecuador, Argentina and Bangladesh.

Asia/Pacific

The lower domestic production, strong local demand and strong prices compared with 2015 and
2016, attracted large volumes of farmed shrimp to China from Asia and Latin America. Direct
shrimp imports to China declined marginally (-0.25 percent) during the first nine months of 2017
(76 100 tonnes) compared with the same period in 2016. However, imports increased from
Canada (+37 percent at 20 331 tonnes), Ecuador (+12 percent at 12 498 tonnes), India (+50
percent at 7 811 tonnes) and Greenland (+133 percent at 7 872 tonnes). Official imports from
Viet Nam were only 950 tonnes. Taking into account the large import volume from Viet Nam to
China through border trade,

Total shrimp imports in China during this period are estimated to be 275 000 to 300 000 tonnes
from Viet Nam alone, including the large volume that is imported through border trade from Viet
Nam to China.

Viet Nam has emerged as the number one importer of shrimp in Asia, with 60–70 percent of
imports being re-exported to China through border trade. During the first three quarters of 2017,
nearly 320 000 tonnes of shrimp were imported in Viet Nam, 40 percent more than in the same
period in 2016. Around 90 percent of these imports were supplied by Ecuador, India and
Thailand.

The Republic of Korea also reported strong imports from Viet Nam (+11 percent at 27 100
tonnes), Ecuador (+35 percent at 6 456 tonnes), Thailand (+20 percent at 4 845 tonnes) and
India (+16 percent at 1 610 tonnes). Still, the total imports were reduced by 4 percent compared
to 2016, because of the 70 percent supply deficit from China.
 Prices and disease hit global shrimp
production
POST-HARVESTECONOMICS

the Fish Site Editor

13 April 2017, at 1:00am

Lower international prices and outbreaks of disease in some leading producing countries
meant that global production of farmed shrimp in 2016 remained stagnant, or even fell,
compared to the year before.


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

According to FAO’s latest Globefish report, published today, the main

season for farmed shrimp in Asia ended in November with an overall
sluggish trend in production. This went against the earlier forecast of
increased production in 2016.

Preliminary production reports suggest that recovery in Thailand and

strong harvests in Ecuador were not enough to offset the falling
production of farmed shrimp in China and Vietnam due to persistent
shrimp disease and related issues. The average per hectare harvest in
Vietnam reportedly declined by 50 percent, due to poor quality shrimp
fry and slow growth. Due to production issues, both China and Vietnam
had to import large quantities of shrimp for reprocessing and export.
Overall production in India and Indonesia, the two other large producers
of farmed shrimp in Asia, is expected to be lower than the early 2016
forecast. In Latin America, farmed shrimp production increased
moderately in Ecuador, but in Mexico disease and premature harvests
negatively impacted volume growth. Farmed shrimp supplies also did
not improve in other countries in the Central and South American
region.
In terms of wild-caught shrimp, Argentina had another record year of
catches of Pleoticus muelleri, with annual landings expected to exceed
150,000 tonnes, compared with 140,000 tonnes in 2015. By contrast,
US landings from the Gulf of Mexico declined by 18 percent during
January–October 2016 (to 36,000 tonnes) compared with the same
period in 2015, keeping ex-warehouse prices at higher levels compared
with imported vannamei shrimp.

Export summary

Despite lower than expected growth, India moved to become the

leading exporter of shrimp during the first nine months of 2016, followed
by Ecuador, Thailand, Indonesia and China. Compared with the same
period in 2015, exports from India increased by 11.6 percent, totalling
315,400 tonnes. Ecuador also increased exports by 7.5 percent (to
276,000 tonnes) during this period with increased sales to East Asia,
the Russian Federation and Latin America.

Improved farmed shrimp production in Thailand facilitated a 28 percent

rise in exports to 150,000 tonnes during the review period and secured
the country its third position in the global shrimp export market. More
than 40 percent of these exports consisted of processed/value-added
products.
With two digit rises in Chinese export volumes to the Republic of Korea
(+17.25 percent), Hong Kong SAR (+18.90 percent) and Taiwan
Province of China (+18.32 percent), total Chinese exports of shrimp
increased by 9 percent to total 136,000 tonnes.

Shrimp export volumes from Vietnam posted growth in the USA (+10
percent), Japan (+5.5 percent), EU (+12 percent) and other East Asian
markets during January-September 2016 compared with the same
period in 2015.

Shrimp prices generally remained soft in global export trade during the
review period, dominated by vannamei shrimp. However, exporters of
black tiger (Bangladesh, Myanmar and Indonesia) reported firmer price
trends following strong demand from the USA and Japan. Supplies of
this species from India, Viet Nam and Indonesia have tapered over the
years.

Despite limited supply of large-sized shrimp in Indonesia, prices have

fallen due to weak demand from key markets, particularly from the USA.

Import summary

Among the top three traditional shrimp markets, demand improved in

the USA and Japan, especially during the summer and school holiday
seasons, which was supported by the lower import prices. In the
European markets, demand has remained flat.

During the review period, shrimp imports increased by 3.5 percent into
the USA, by 5 percent into Japan and by 3.4 percent into the EU
compared with the same time in 2015. High inventories are reported
with European importers and distributors due to slow summer demand
from end consumers. There were lower imports to Norway (-22 percent)
and Switzerland (-10 percent). In contrast, strong import growth
persisted in the Russian Federation (+44 percent) following the lifting of
the food embargo, though this volume remains below January-
September 2014 imports of 37,000 tonnes.

Positive import trends continue into East Asian emerging markets,

including China (+14 percent), Republic of Korea (+7.7 percent), Hong
Kong SAR (12 percent), Singapore (+ percent) and in the Middle East.
 The global aquaculture industry is expected to grow by 3-4 percent in 2018, with the
salmon sector one of the major areas of increase, according to a report published by
Rabobank today.







The report covers projections of global protein production for the year
ahead, and the seafood element of it has been assembled by Gorjan
Nikolik.
 Rabobank seafood analyst, Gorjan Nikolik

“While seafood production in China is expected to slow down, due to

challenges caused by issues relating to health and climate,” Gorjan tells
The Fish Site, “growth in SE Asia, Africa and - in particular - India, is
expected to more than make up for it.”

Salmon volumes on the rise

The salmon sector is expected to experience 7 percent growth –

continuing the upwards trends experienced in Chile and Norway during
2017, when the countries managed to bounce back from problems
caused by algal blooms and lice levels the previous year. Indeed, global
growth reached 5 percent, this year, a marked improvement from 2016,
which saw productions levels fall by 7 percent.

While this trend is expected to mean that the prices are unlikely to
return to the record levels of over NOK 70 per kilo, such as they
achieved in the first half of 2017, the report expects they will remain
above historical averages, most likely in the NOK 50-65 per kilo range,
throughout the year.

“The peak of the price cycle may have passed,” reflects Gorjan, “thanks
to increasing supplies in Norway and Chile. However, legislative
restraints, particularly in Chile, are likely to slow down any increases in
supply by the middle of 2018. We also expect growth to slow down
again in 2019, thereby ensuring that prices remain strong, despite the
usual volatility.”

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Shrimp success predicted

After a year of modest growth in 2017, the shrimp industry is also

expected to increase production levels – with India, Ecuador and
Indonesia helping to spearhead this growth. However, the report warns
that this depends on early mortality syndrome (EMS)
and Enterocytozoon hepatopenaei (EHP) – which hit the Chinese and
Thai shrimp industries particularly hard in 2017 – being kept under
control.

India has a burgeoning shrimp industry

Demand is expected to keep pace with this growth, ensuring high

prices, and the report also predicts prices to remain relatively stable,
ensuring a solid year for the sector.

“A number of other high-end protein products have hit historical highs in

recent years,” Gorjan explains, “and we think that this will keep up the
demand for shrimp in 2018.”

Feed prices could drop

Landings from capture fisheries are also anticipated to increase, by 1-2

percent. And from an aquaculture perspective, perhaps the most
exciting stock recovery is anticipated for Peruvian anchovies – which
support the world's the largest fishery in terms of landing volumes, and
provide the main source of the fishmeal and fish oil used in aquaculture
feeds.

Following poor three poor years for the fishery, caused by El Niño, the
report notes that 2017 landings experienced a marked improvement,
and predicts the upward trend to continue in 2018.
Meanwhile prices are expected to remain keen for aquaculture feed
manufacturers, in the range of $1,100 to $1,500 per tonne.

“Although the demand for fishmeal is high, with Chinese imports

growing considerably last year, the projected increase in supply should
ensure that prices don’t increase by much,” Gorjan reflects.

A production surge of Indian shrimp might result in a price fall, say trade sources.
Output of farmed shrimp was about 500,000 tonnes during the first three quarters of
2017, compared with 400,000 tonnes in 2016.

Apart from India, the major producers of farmed shrimp were China, Ecuador,
Vietnam and Indonesia.

America is the largest market for Indian seafood. The US administration recently
raised anti-dumping duty on Indian shrimp to 2.34 per cent, from 0.84 per cent. And,
on shipment from Vietnam from 4.8 per cent last year to 25.39 per cent.
Indian shrimp also goes to Vietnam for value addition and re-export to the US; this
would be hit. India, in fact, appears to have become the world's largest export
of shrimp.“Production will be increasing as more and more areas are coming into
(shrimp) farming in Odisha and West Bengal. However, access to capital remains a
constraint; the seafood sector is capital-intensive,” said Aditya Dash, managing
director, Ram's Assorted Cold Storage, a leading Odisha-based exporter. He says
India could be at the top spot for another 15 years.

In India, strong demand from North American and East Asian markets supported
higher shrimp export at 420,500 tonnes, an increase of 33 per cent, making India the
top world exporter. During the January-September 2017 period, average monthly
export was 47,000 to 50,000 tonnes, mostly raw shell-on and peeled shrimp,” went a
report from Globefish, an entity under the Food and Agriculture Organization of the
United Nations.

The destinations for India were America, Vietnam, the European Union, Japan and
the UAE. Export increased to China and South Korea. The Globefish report says
Indian export rose 42 per cent to the US market, compensating for supply declines
there from Indonesia (three per cent less), Ecuador (1.4 per cent less), Thailand and
Vietnam (seven per cent less). Import from China rose 39 per cent.
 India emerges largest
shrimp exporter to USA,
exports increase 32%
Lower anti-dumping duty and opening up of market by the US buyers has allowed Indian
exporters to send more products to the USA

Nirmalya Behera | Bhubaneswar Last Updated at February 14, 2018 22:06 IST

133

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Eclipsing 60 other countries of the world, India has emerged as the largest exporter
of shrimp, a major seafood export item, to the United States of America.

US imported more than 32 per cent of shrimps it consumed in 2017 calendar year
from India. Between January and December, last year, USA imported 664,119
tonnes of shrimps.

"Lower anti-dumping duty and opening up of market by the US buyers has allowed
Indian exporters to send more products to the USA. Many importers are now
interested to trade directly with the exporters", said Tara Patnaik, Chairman, Falcon
Marine Exports Ltd, the largest seafood exporter in country.

The trade with US is more of a programmed business where the buyers commit to
take a certain amount for a year unlike the spot business adopted by other
countries, he added.

USA being the top destination for Indian shrimp export, the reduced national
average of anti-dumping duty for India at 0.84 per cent remains an important growth
driver.

In volumes, US imported 2,13,956 tonnes during the last calendar year from India, a
growth of whopping 39 per cent over 153,956 tonnes recorded in 2016. Value-wise,
US imported $2.17 billion of shrimps in 2017, up by 45 per cent.

"Approximately 50 per cent of the US imports are coming from India and Indonesia
alone, where the majority of shrimp are grown and harvested in farms, making them
cheaper than domestic wild-caught varieties. The increasing competition from
imports combined with a series of setbacks such as hurricanes and the water
contamination from Deep-water Horizon oil spill led to reduction in domestic
production in the US", said Ayan Paul, analyst at the CARE Ratings Ltd.

Indian shrimp processing companies have also realized tremendous benefit from
technological advancements during the catastrophic learning curve experience
earlier in this decade by Southeast Asia.

With the use of technology and direct engagement at the farm level to boost yields
and improve sustainability, the companies are reducing the number of cases of
shipment rejection, which a couple of years ago had remained a major bottleneck
for exports. This has also led to increase in export to US from India, Paul added.

Care Rating also attributed the increase in exports to US to the growth in the
country's overall production capacity with more untapped regions like West Bengal,
Tamil Nadu, and Odisha coming online, apart from Andhra Pradesh which remained
the largest producer of the shrimp in India.

First Published: Wed, February 14 2018. 19:56 IST