To: Interested Parties

From: Ben Greenfield, Change Research

Date: July 16, 2018

RE: TX-21 Congressional Race

A recent poll from Change Research of 672 registered voters shows that Democrat Joseph
Kopser is within the margin of error in a head to head matchup with Republican Chip Roy, and
that enthusiasm is significantly higher among Democrats than Republicans.

Initially, 35% of voters are undecided, including 31% of Republicans, 29% of Democrats, and
47% of independents. But 95% of Democrats support Kopser after being presented with
messages about the candidates. By contrast, only 88% of Republicans end up supporting Roy,
and only ⅓ of undecided Republicans lean toward Roy.

Kopser’s message is even more persuasive to independents: after hearing about the candidates,
41% of independents support Kopser, while only 24% get behind Roy and 23% support
Libertarian candidate Lee Santos.

© 2018 Change Research

Voters, and especially independents, are very receptive to Kopser’s background as a scientist
and his support for science-based and evidence-based policies. When informed that Kopser is
alarmed about climate change and wants Texas to be a leader in renewable energy jobs, 36% of
independents found it to be a “very convincing” reason to support him. Another 35% of
independents were “very convinced” by a message about Kopser’s support for increasing STEM
education funding. Both numbers exceeded independents’ support for any of the pro-Roy
messages with which they were presented.

Kopser’s numbers are poised to improve even more on election day, given Democrats’
enthusiasm, which far exceeds the rest of the electorate. 69% of Democrats are more
enthusiastic about this year’s election than previous midterms, while only 44% of Republicans
and 44% of independents are more enthusiastic.

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© 2018 Change Research