???

County Beverage Brew-Thru Example

# of # of
New Service Order Service Lost Number
Period RN Cust. avail? RN Size Periods Cust. waiting
1 .63 2 yes .41 Med 2 0 1
2 .32 1 no -- -- -- 0 2
3 .15 0 yes .73 Small 1 0 1
4 .95 4 yes .50 Med 2 0 4
5 .68 2 no -- -- -- 2 4
6 .23 1 yes .89 Large 3 0 4
7

??? County Beverage Brew-Thru Example

Service
Period completed? Profit
1 No ---
2 Yes(1) 1.50
3 Yes(2) .75
4 No ---
5 Yes(3) 1.50
6 No ---
7

??? County Beverage Drive-Thru Example

Total revenue = $3.75

Average revenue per period = 3.75/6 = $0.63
Average profit per customer = 3.75/3 = $1.25
Opportunity cost due to balking
= 2 (1.25) = $2.50
Total profit = 3.75 – 2.50 = $1.25

1
 ??? County Beverage Brew-Thru Example
2 Servers side by side
Service entrance Service lanes

Car 1
Car 4 Car 3 Exit
Car 2
Waiting area

Note: Customers balk if more than 4 cars in line

??? County Beverage Brew-Thru Example

# of Service
New avail? Order Service Order Service
Period RN Cust. 1 2 RN1 Size1 Pds-1 RN2 Size2 Pds-2

1 .63 2 Y Y .41 Med 2 .19 Small 1

2 .32 1 N Y -- -- -- .75 Med 2
3 .15 0 Y N ---- Idle ---- -- -- --
4 .95 4 Y Y .50 Med 2 .91 Large 3
5 .68 2 N N -- -- -- -- -- --
6 .23 1 Y N .89 Large 3 -- -- --

??? County Beverage Brew-Thru Example

# of Service
Lost Number completed? Profit
Period Cust. waiting 1 2 1 2

1 0 0 No Yes --- .75

2 0 0 Yes No 1.50 ---
3 0 0 --- Yes --- 1.50
4 0 2 No No --- ---
5 0 4 Yes No 1.50 ---
6 0 4 No Yes --- 3.00

2
 ??? County Beverage Drive-Thru Example

Total revenue = $8.25

Average revenue per period = 8.25/6 = $1.38
Average profit per customer = 8.25/6 = $1.38
Opportunity cost due to balking
= 0 (1.25) = $ 0
Total profit = 8.25 – 0 = $8.25

??? County Beverage Brew-Thru Example

2 Servers single line
Service entrance
Service lanes

Car 4 Car 3 Car 2 Car 1 Exit

Waiting area

Note: Customers balk if more than 4 cars in line

??? County Beverage Brew-Thru Example

# of Service
New avail? Order Service Order Service
Period RN Cust. 1 2 RN1 Size1 Pds-1 RN2 Size2 Pds-2

1 .63 2 Y Y .41 Med 2 .19 Small 1

2 .32 1 N N -- -- -- -- -- --
3 .15 0 Y Y .23 Small 1 ---- Idle ----
4 .95 4 Y Y .50 Med 2 .91 Large 3
5 .68 2 N N -- -- -- -- -- --
6 .23 1 N N -- -- -- -- -- --

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??? County Beverage Brew-Thru Example
# of Service
Lost Number completed? Profit
Period Cust. waiting 1 2 1 2

1 0 0 No Yes --- .75

2 0 1 Yes --- 1.50 ---
3 0 0 Yes --- .75 ---
4 0 2 No No --- ---
5 0 4 Yes No 1.50 ---
6 1 4 --- Yes --- 3.00

??? County Beverage Drive-Thru Example

Total revenue = $7.50

Average revenue per period = 7.50/6 = $1.25
Average profit per customer = 7.50/6 = $1.25
Opportunity cost due to balking
= 1 (1.25) = $ 1.25
Total profit = 7.50 – 1.25 = $6.25

???
Simulation needs a large
number of iterations!!!
In running any simulation, you should run a
MINIMUM of 1000 iterations in order to
get an accurate reflection of the probability
distributions that describe the exogenous
variables. Otherwise the results can be very
biased!!!

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 ??? County Beverage Brew-Thru Example
# of customers
arriving every Cumulative
3 min. Prob. Prob. Interval
0 0.19 0.19 0<RN<=0.19
1 0.39 0.58 0.19<RN<=0.58
2 0.19 0.77 0.58<RN<=0.77
3 0.15 0.92 0.77<RN<=0.92
4 0.08 1.00 0.92<RN<=1.00
1.00

County Beverage Brew-Thru Example

?
??
Arrivals Order size
0 0 0 Small 3 1.5
0.19 1 0.39 Medium 6 3
0.58 2 0.89 Large 9 6
0.77 3 1
0.92 4
1

RN newc # newc RN size Size Time fill Profit

0.04031745 0 0.55716 Medium 6 3
0.66880621 2 0.78488 Medium 6 3
0.63572523 2 0.01258 Small 3 1.5
0.63113984 2 0.64747 Medium 6 3
0.51445065 1 0.86136 Medium 6 3

???County Beverage Brew-Thru Example

Order
Probability Cumulative Interval
size probability
Small 0.39 0.39 0<RN<=0.39
Medium 0.50 0.89 0.39<RN<=0.89
Large 0.11 1.00 0.89<RN<=1.00
1.00

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 ???
County Beverage Brew-Thru Full Simulation

Period RN1 # customers Serv. Avail? RN2 Order size # serv pds. Profit # Lost # Waiting
1
1 0.47 1 1 0.250091905 Small 1 1.5 0 0
2 0.48 1 1 0.36309899 Small 1 1.5 0 0
3 0.36 1 1 0.367772004 Small 1 1.5 0 0
4 0.21 1 1 0.03611234 Small 1 1.5 0 0
5 0.1 0 99 0.54317676 -- 0 0 0
6 0.87 3 1 0.77376647 Medium 2 3 0 2
7 0.75 2 0 0.920029916 -- 1 0 4
8 0.37 1 1 0.874029048 Medium 2 3 0 4
9 0.83 3 0 0.256922113 -- 1 3 4
10 0.05 0 1 0.814155403 Medium 2 3 0 3
11 0.44 1 0 0.946824715 -- 1 0 4
12 0.03 0 1 0.906769733 Large 3 6 0 3
13 0.98 4 0 0.072402221 -- 2 3 4
14 0.6 2 0 0.635027832 -- 1 2 4
15 0.27 1 1 0.17582777 Small 1 1.5 0 4
16 0.82 3 1 0.92524967 Large 3 6 2 4
17 0.02 0 0 0.732986991 -- 2 0 4
18 0.09 0 0 0.876563974 -- 1 0 4

28.5 10 48
Total profit Total lost Total wait
2.666666667
Avg. wait
Arrivals Order size
0 0 0 Small 1 1.5
0.19 1 0.39 Medium 2 3
0.58 2 0.89 Large 3 6
0.77 3 1
0.92 4
1

???
Simulation
Quarter Dime Nickel Penny Outcome
Heads No one home
Tails Heads Woman answers
Heads Heads 1 part sold
Others 0 parts sold
Tails Man answers
Heads Heads 2 parts sold
Tails Tails 1 part sold
Others 0 parts sold

???
RN-1 Anyone home? RN - 2 M/F? RN - Man # parts RN - Woman # parts Profit - Man Profit - Woman

0.707137505 2
0.977861099 2
0.333354681 1 0.087645508 1 0.259392711 1 5
0.065166103 1 0.207628758 1 0.596787299 0 0
0.440802268 1 0.330399536 1 0.509661487 0 0
0.008488278 1 0.57470201 2 0.3597627 0 0
0.535973644 2
0.063534839 1 0.186979396 1 0.785184638 0 0

Anyone home? Man/Woman # parts - Man # parts - Woman Total profit =

0 1 0 1 0 2 0 1 5
0.5 2 0.5 2 0.25 1 0.25 0
1 1 0.5 0 1
1

6
 ??? Anyone home?
0 1
0.5 2
1
Man/Woman
0 1
0.5 2
1

# parts - Man # parts - Woman

0 2 0 1
0.25 1
0.25 0
0.5 0
1 1

???
RN-1 Anyone home? RN - 2 M/F? RN - Man # parts RN - Woman # parts Profit - Man Profit - Woman

0.347083533 1 0.918703022 2 0.793709277 0 0

0.380622093 1 0.300902127 1 0.088701329 2 10
0.847283301 2
0.883986962 2
0.167479579 1 0.028273359 1 0.053851683 2 10
0.243096096 1 0.65808919 2 0.305259765 0 0
0.010511852 1 0.44822643 1 0.962309594 0 0
0.357091452 1 0.206475836 1 0.371118112 1 5

??? Simulation – Excel Formulas

To obtain a random number: =RAND()

To obtain a table value based on the random
number:
= VLOOKUP(A2, $B$5:$C$8,2)
Second
Cell where Range where column
RN is found table is found in table

7
 ???
RN-1 Anyone home? RN - 2 M/F? RN - Man # parts RN - Woman # parts Profit - Man Profit - Woman

0.347083533 1 0.918703022 2 0.793709277 0 0

0.380622093 1 0.300902127 1 0.088701329 2 10
0.847283301 2
0.883986962 2
0.167479579 1 0.028273359 1 0.053851683 2 10
0.243096096 1 0.65808919 2 0.305259765 0 0
0.010511852 1 0.44822643 1 0.962309594 0 0
0.357091452 1 0.206475836 1 0.371118112 1 5

???
Simulation
Case 2 :
Answer Questions 1-4 at end of case,
but put the answers into the 4 sections
outlined on page 167.

???
Simulation – Event Sequencing
Sam’s Lunch Counter
Event Calendar Next Arrival Service Completion Cust. served
Clock Arr. Dep. RN t Clock RN t Clock 1 2 3 4 5
11:00.0 1 .396 4.0 11:04.0 .289 20 11:20.0 1
11:04.0 2 .809 8.1 11:12.1 .171 20 11:24.0 2
11:12.1 3 1.09 10.9 11:23.0 .101 20 11:32.1 3
11:20.0 1
11:23.0 4 .583 5.8 11:28.8 .722 30 11:53.0 4
11:24.0 2
11:28.8 5 1.126 11.3 11:40 .806 40 12:08.8 5
11:32.1 3

8
 ???
Simulation – Event Sequencing
Sam’s Lunch Counter
Event Calendar Next Arrival Service Completion Cust. served
Clock Arr. Dep. RN t Clock RN t Clock 1 2 3 4 5
11:40.1 6 .165 1.6 11:41.7 .244 20 12:00.1 4 5 6
11:41.7 7 1.07 10.8 11:52.1 .391 20 12:01.7 7
11:52.5 8* 4.11 41.1 12:33.6 .436 20 12:12.5 8
11:53.0 4
12:00.1 6
12:01.7 7
12:08.8 5
12:12.5 8

???
Simulation
ProModel Demonstration:

One of many simulation packages that

allows you to model your process or
system and then automatically collect
statistics about it

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