5.5 Poisson Distribution and the Poisson Process Experiments yielding numerical values of a random variable X, the number of ‘outcomes occurring during a given time interal or in specified Fegion, are called Poimon experiments. "The givea time interval may be of ay lengthy such as = minute, «day. a woek, a month, or even «year. For example, a Poisson experiment ‘can generate observations for the random variable X representing the number of telephone calls rceived per hour by an office, the number of dey schcol is closed ‘due to stow during the winter, or the number of games postponed due to rain during a baeeball aso. The specified region could be a He segment, a aren, ‘volume, oF peshape s piece of material. In sich instances, might represent the number of feld mice per acre, the number of bacteria in « given culture, or the number of typing errors per page. A Poison experiment is derived from the Poisson process and possess the following propertic= Properties of the Poisson Process 1. The number of outcomes occurring in one time interval or specified roxion of pace is independent of the number that occur in any other disjoint ime in- terval or rogion. In this ease we say that the Peisson process has no memory. 2 The probability that a single outcome will occur during a very short time interval or m small region is proportional tothe length ef the time interval for the size of the reason and doce aot depend on the munber of oteues ‘oceurring extside this time interval er reion 3. Tho probability that more than onc outsore wil cocur in such a short time interval or fallin such a small region is aoglisibc. “The mmber X of oxtecmes occurring during a Poison experiment is called 6 Poisson random variable, and its probability cistribution is called the Poissonies rapa dia tn eas ao eon Wetsuit ecieanes Ente wn gras Ga imal or we pe Sood yi ss a9 =O pean... pce wage aera can pr ea i ar Tetum ne = 271008 Thilo A2 cocaine Pozen SOFA wane esas for sclosted values of Mt ranging from 0.1 to 18.0. We ilustrate the use ofthis table with the following two examples Exampl [During a laboratory experiment, the average number of radioactive particles pass tg thr vig weber UT llnesucd es Wha ie ie fbebtlty Mak Spastic centor the counter in = given millaocand? Solution: Using the Poisson distribution with x wwe have and At = 4 and referring to Table A.2. pled) — ates) = 0.8808 — 0.7851 ete e108, (64 (6:4) = r ‘Bxample 5.18:) Ten is the average number of oil tankers arriving each day at a certain port. The facilities at the port can handle at most 15 tankers per day. What is the probability that on a given dey tankers have to be turned away? 2 Lot X be the nuuber of tankers arriving cach day. Then, using Table A.2, we have continuous distributions used in relabiity theory and queuing theory depend on. the Poison proces. Some of these distributions are discussed and developed int Chupter 6. The flowing theorem concerning the Poinon random variable is given in Appendic A.25. ‘Example 5.19! In a certain industrial facility, accidents oceur infroquontly. It is known that the probability of an aceident on any given day i ©.005 and aceidants are independent fen other: (9) What isthe probabiiy that im any given period of 400 days there wil! be an eect (®) What is the probabillty that there are at most duce days with an accident? ‘Solution: Let X bea bincmial rendom variable with « — 400 and p— 0.005. Thus, np = 2. Using the Peissu apprasination, (®) POX =1) =e 92! 0271 ana (b) PIX <3 Siete a! = 0887 ~ Teciaple G20) fa = cauaieeniag pies Yew plier Grates a ea dine occur, occasionslly rendering the piece undesirable for marketing. It is known that, on average, 1 in every 1000 of theseitems produced has one or more bubbles ‘What is the probability that arandom sample of $000 will yield fewer than 7 items passing bubbles? Solution: This is cxentilly « binowinl experiment with n — 8000 and p = 0.001. Since pis wry clowo to O and m ie quite large, wo chall approximeto with the Poisson distribution using 1 ~ (6000)(0.001) — 8 Honce, if X represeats the number of bubbles, we have P(X <7) — SW=:8000, 0.001) ~ p(x: 8) — 0.134