Professional Documents
Culture Documents
INVESTMENT PLANNING
The investment and the economic theory.
.ﺘﻌﺭﻴﻑ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻭﺃﻫﻤﻴﺘﻪ
:ﺍﻟﻔﺼل ﺍﻷﻭل
The definition and importance of investment.
The investment rate of return.
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The investment and the economic activity.
Planned investment and economic equilibrium.
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Resources, Growth and sustainable
Development
ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺍﺭﺩ ﻭﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ :ﺍﻟﻔﺼل ﺍﻷﻭل
Resources and Economic Growth
Planned Investment and sustainable development.
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.ﺘﻌﺭﻴﻑ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻭﺃﻫﻤﻴﺘﻪ :ﺍﻟﻔﺼل ﺍﻷﻭل
The definition and importance of
investment.
:ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻭﺍﻟﻨﻅﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ :ﺍﻟﻔﺼل ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻲ
The investment and the economic
theory.
.classical theory ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﻼﺴﻴﻜﻴﺔ-ﺃ
.keynesian theory ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﻨﺫﻴﺔ-ﺏ
.ﻤﺤﺩﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ :ﺍﻟﻔﺼل ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺙ
The determinants of investment.
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ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺒﻕ ﻨﺠﺩ ﺃﻨﻪ ﻋﻨﺩﻤﺎ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟـﺴﻨﺩ ١٠٠٠ﺠﻨﻴـﻪ
ﻭﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺩ %٤ﻜﺎﻥ ﻟﻬﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺩ ﺇﻴﺭﺍﺩ ﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭﻩ ٤٠ﺠﻨﻴـﻪ ،ﻭﻋﻨـﺩﻤﺎ
ﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ ﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﻟﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺩ ﻓـﺈﻥ ﻗﻴﻤـﺔ
ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺩ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ ﻻ ﺘﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻭﻫﻨﺎ ﻻ ﻴﺤﺼل ﺤﺎﻤل ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺭﺒﺢ ﺃﻭ ﺨﺴﺎﺭﺓ.
ﻭﻟﻜﻥ ﺒﻌﺩ ﺜﻼﺙ ﺴﻨﻭﺍﺕ ﻤﻥ ﺇﺼﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺩ ،ﺍﺭﺘﻔﻌﺕ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ
ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ ﻤﻥ %٤ﺇﻟﻰ ،%٥ﻓﻨﺠﺩ ﺃﻥ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺩ ﺘﻨﺨﻔﺽ ﺇﻟﻰ ٨٠٠ﺠﻨﻴﻪ )٤٠
÷ (٠,٠٥ﻭﻴﺭﺠﻊ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻻﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺃﻨﻪ ﺇﺫﺍ ﺃﺭﺍﺩ ﺃﻱ ﻓﺭﺩ ﺍﻟﻴﻭﻡ ﺍﺴـﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ
٨٠٠ﺠﻨﻴﻪ ﻋﻨﺩ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺠﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ ﻭﻫﻲ %٥ﻓﺈﻨﻪ ﺴﻴﺤـﺼل
ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﺎﺌﺩ ﻗﺩﺭﻩ ٤٠ﺠﻨﻴﻪ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ ،ﻭﻫﺫﻩ ﻫﻲ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺴﻨﺩ ﺍﻟـﺫﻱ
ﺃﺼﺩﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺜﻼﺙ ﺴﻨﻭﺍﺕ ﻭﺫﻟﻙ ﻷﻨﻪ ﻻ ﻴﻭﺠﺩ ﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺭ ﻴﻘﺒل ﺃﻥ ﻴﺩﻓﻊ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺩ
١٠٠٠ﺠﻨﻴﻪ ﻭﻴﺤﺼل ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﺎﺌﺩ ﻗﺩﺭﻩ ٤٠ﺠﻨﻴﻪ ﻷﻥ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ %٤ﺤﻴﺙ
ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻴﻭﻡ %٥ﻓﻠﻜﻲ ﻴﻘﺒل ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺭ ﺃﻥ ﻴﺩﻓﻊ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺩ ١٠٠٠ﺠﻨﻴـﻪ
ﻓﺈﻨﻪ ﻴﺘﻭﻗﻊ ﺃﻥ ﻴﺤﺼل ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﺎﺌﺩ ﻗﺩﺭﻩ %٥ﺃﻱ ﻴﺤﺼل ﻋﻠﻰ ٥٠ﺠﻨﻴﻪ ﻭﻟﻴﺱ
٤٠ﺠﻨﻴﻪ.
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10%
ﻜﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ
0 M1 M2 M3
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%
i )MDF(i,y3
1
)MDF(i,y2
ﻜﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ
)MDF(i,y1
0 Y1 Y2 Y3
ﻋﻨﺩ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺴﻌﺭ ﻓﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻤﻌﻴﻥ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺩﺨل ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻱ ﻴﺅﺩﻱ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻨﻘل
ﻤﻨﺤﻨﻰ ﺍﻟﻁﻠﺏ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻴﻤﻴﻥ ﺩﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ.
ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺭﺴﻡ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻨﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺒﻕ ﻨﺠﺩ ﺜﻼﺙ ﻤﻨﺤﻨﻴﺎﺕ ﺘﻭﻀﺢ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗـﺔ ﺒـﻴﻥ
MDﻭﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻋﻨﺩ ﻜل ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﻤﻥ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟـﺩﺨل Y3, Y2, Y1
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اﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻨﻘﻮد
DM
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MS
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M /P
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SM ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺭﺴﻡ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻨﻲ ﻨﺠﺩ ﺃﻥ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﻋﺭﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ ﻤﻥ MSﺇﻟـﻰ
ﺇﻟﻰ ﺃﺩﻯ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻨﺘﻘﺎل ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻤﻥ iﺇﻟﻰ َ iﻭﺃﻴﻀﺎ ﺍﻨﺘﻘﻠﺕ ﻨﻘﻁﺔ ﺍﻟﺘـﻭﺍﺯﻥ
Aﻋﻨـﺩ
ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﻁﻠﺏ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ ﻭﻋﺭﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻁﺔ Aﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻁﺔ َ
ﺴﻌﺭ ﻓﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻤﻨﺨﻔﺽ.
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ﺍﻟﻀﺭﺍﺌﺏ-٤ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻨﻭﻟﻭﺠﻴﺎ-٣
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The Concept of Marginal Efficiency of Copital
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ﻴﻘﻴﺱ ﻤﻔﻬﻭﻡ ﺍﻟﻜﻔﺎﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﺩﻴﺔ ﻟﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﻟﻤﺎل ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻗﺩﻤﻪ ﻜﻴﻨﺯ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ
ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﻗﻊ ﻤﻥ ﺍﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺤﺠﻡ ﻤﻌﻴﻥ ﻤﻥ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﻟﻤﺎل ﺇﻟﻰ ﻨﻔﻘﺔ ﻫـﺫﺍ ﺍﻻﺴـﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ
ﻨﻔﺴﻪ .ﻭﻴﺴﻤﻰ ﺍﻟﻜﻔﺎﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﺩﻴﺔ ﻟﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﻟﻤﺎل ﺒﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺨﺼﻡ ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻴﺠﻌل ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤـﺔ
ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻟﻤﺠﻤﻭﻋﺔ ﺍﻹﻴﺭﺍﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻭﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﻗﻌﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺃﺼل ﺇﻨﺘﺎﺠﻲ ﺠﺩﻴﺩ ﻤﺴﺎﻭﻴﺔ
ﻟﻨﻔﻘﺔ ﺍﺴﺘﺒﺩﺍل ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻷﺼل ﺃﻭ ﺜﻤﻥ ﻋﺭﻀﻪ .ﺃﻱ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻜﻔﺎﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﺩﻴﺔ ﻟﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﻟﻤﺎل
ﺘﻭﻀﺢ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ:
ﺍﻟﺤﺼﻴﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﻗﻌﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺃﺼل ﺭﺃﺴﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﺠﺩﻴﺩ ﻟﻪ ﺩﺨل. )ﺃ(
ﺜﻤﻥ ﻋﺭﺽ ﺍﻷﺼل ﺍﻟﺭﺃﺴﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻴﺩ )ﺃﻱ ﻨﻔﻘﺔ ﺇﺤﻼﻟﻪ(. )ﺏ(
ﻋﻨﺩ ﺸﺭﺍﺀ ﺁﻟﺔ ﺠﺩﻴﺩﺓ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺘﺭﻱ ﻴﺘﻭﻗﻊ ﺃﻥ ﻴﺤﺼل ﻤﻘﺎﺒل ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﻟﻤﺎل
ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﺍﺴﺘﺜﻤﺭﻩ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻵﻟﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﺎﺌﺩ ﻨﻘﺩﻱ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒل ،ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺒﻴـﻊ
ﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻵﻟﺔ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺭ ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺠﻲ ﻟﻶﻟﺔ ،ﻤﺨﺼﻭﻤﺎ ﻤﻨـﻪ ﻜـل ﺍﻟﻨﻔﻘـﺎﺕ
ﺍﻟﺠﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻼﺯﻤﺔ ﻟﻠﺤﺼﻭل ﻋﻠﻰ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ.
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5000 3000
= 7774 + + 10003
1+r (1+r)2 )(1+r
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MEC
٠ ﺍﻟﻁﻠﺏ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ
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