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© David H. Weis
I cannot find anything about the last three days’ price action in the S&P that can be
construed as bullish. The market re-tested Monday’s high and again closed near the low
of its range. I believe there is a greater chance for the S&P to pull back toward last week’s
low rather than to have a sustained up-move from current levels. Despite the low volume
today, there were ample trading opportunities.
For tracking intraday price movement in the ES, I usually use a .75 wave retrace on either
the 3- or 5-minute bar chart. In the past few weeks, I have experimented with a .25 wave
retrace which equals the minimum fluctuation. It is particularly well-suited for an active
day trader. As you know, the essence of my method is to watch for a high-volume upwave
or downwave followed by a low volume pullback. For the ES, when the pullback draws
out less than 10k volume, the setup is ideal. On today’s chart, I have marked the three
high-volume downwaves which were followed by pullbacks on less than 10k volume. All
of these provided low-risk trading opportunities. The 25k volume on the lift-off from the
low was the heaviest since early morning and it, too, was followed by a pullback on less
than 10k volume. As price moves away from pullback high/low, enter the trade. This
chart resembles Wyckoff’s original tape reading chart. Try using a minimum fluctuation
retrace on other markets for similar results.