ADVICE for the WISE

Newsletter – October’10
Index Page No.

Economic Update 4

Equity Outlook 8

Debt Outlook 17
Forex 19

Commodities 20

Alternative Assets 21

2
 Dear Investor,
The recent rally in Indian equity markets has been remarkable. It
happened without a significant directional change in growth rate
or nature of growth of the economy. The breakout was effectively
a delayed realization of the strength and hence attractiveness of
Indian companies to domestic as well as foreign investors. While
we remain very bullish about the prospects of Indian equities in
the medium term, the driver of the current rally makes us cautious
in the short term. This rally is driven primarily by the foreign fund
inflows – which is also apparent from the sharp appreciation of
the Rupee in the recent weeks.
However, Indian equities are still far from what can be deemed
bubble territory. The FY2011 price-to-earnings ratio at 20 remains
well below previous all-time highs. This keeps the window open
for the long term investor to enter the equity markets at the
present levels as well. The characteristic of an FII driven rally is
that it typically favors index stocks. This points to an interesting
investment strategy for investors worried about the ill-effects of FII
pullout in near future. These investors would do well to find some
non-index alternatives in their preferred sectors – in the large cap
space or even the mid-cap space. Another gauge would be to use
the extent of FII interest in a stock as a parameter for evaluation of
the attractiveness of a stock, thus favoring good stocks with lesser
FII interest. These are short term measures though and can
backfire if the FII inflows continue unabated..
“Advisory services are provided through Karvy Stock Broking Ltd. (PMS) having SEBI Registration No: INP000001512. Investments are subject to market risks. Please
read the disclaimer on slide no.23”
On debt front, the statement of RBI at the September
announcement of monetary policy has calmed a lot of nerves.
RBI effectively stated that the future changes in the monetary
policy will be driven more by the specific state of affairs at the
time of decision. This is in contrast to RBI’s stance so far
which was to bring the interest rates in the economy up to a
‘normal’ level to avoid overheating. This normalization seems
to be over. We expect another 25 bps repo rate hike in
November (with potentially a larger hike in reverse repo rate
to narrow the rate corridor). That however has been factored
in the long term debt yields. We recommend gradual entry
into long tenor debt with the expectation that the rate cycle
would peak in near future.
A fear that is at the back of everyone’s mind is that of a
double-dip recession in the developed economies. An
interesting alternative for portfolio construction in such a
context is to use a combination of debt and long dated
options instead of debt and equity with the proportions
altered suitably to have the same returns in the medium
term. This achieves two ends – higher liquidity and more
importantly greater safety from extreme events. Such
portfolios are ‘Black Swan’-proof! In case of a major
meltdown, such portfolios tend to lose lesser than their
vanilla counterparts since their actual exposure to the risky
assets is through a small part of their total value.
3
 As on Change over Change over 124 Sensex Nifty
119 S&P 500 Nikkei 225
st
Sep 30 2010 last month last year 114
109

BSE Sensex 20,069 11.7% 17.2% 104

Equity S&P Nifty 6,030 11.6% 18.6%

99
94

markets S&P 500 1,141 8.8% 8.0%

89
84

Nikkei 225 9,369 6.2% (7.5%)

8.2
8
7.8
7.6
10-yr G-Sec Yield 7.85% (12 bps) 64 bps 7.4
7.2
Debt markets Call Markets 5.75% 66 bps 275 bps 7
6.8
10 yr G-Sec

Fixed Deposit* 7.00% 25 bps 75 bps

20000
Gold Spot
19000
18000

Commodity RICI Index 3,361 8.6% 14.1% 17000

markets Gold (`/10gm) 19,165 1.3% 22.7% 16000

Crude Oil ($/bbl) 79.95 5.9% 21.5% 15000

14000

48
47.5
47
`/$
Forex Rupee/Dollar 44.92 4.6% 6.5%
46.5
46
45.5

markets Yen/Dollar 83.7 1.4% 7.4% 45

44.5
44

May-10
Apr-10
Oct-09

Jun-10
Jul-10
Aug-10
Jan-10
Sep-09

Nov-09
Dec-09

Feb-10
Mar-10

Sep-10
* Indicates SBI one-year FD 4
 • The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index which had increased last
month declined sharply by 4.7 points to a seven month low of 48.5 in
US September. The pullback in confidence was due to less favorable business and
labor market conditions coupled with a pessimistic short term outlook.
• US m-o-m unemployment rate increased to 9.6 per cent in August 10.

• Euro-zone purchasing managers index slid to 53.7 from 55.1 in August. This is
the lowest level in 8 months indicating a cooling of the sector after the
Europe buoyant growth rates seen earlier this year.
• Unemployment in the Euro zone remained stable at 10.1% in August but
Germany and Austria saw significant improvement with unemployment falling
to 6.2% in Spain. The unemployment in Spain reached a staggering 20.5%.

• Japan’s industrial production declined by by 0.3% in August due to decreased

global demand and a strong Yen. The manufacturing PMI declined to a low of
Japan 49.5 in September, indicating contraction in the Japanese markets.
• Japan’s unemployment rate decreased in August 10 (m-o-m) to 5.1% from
5.2% in July 10. .

• The HSBC China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index, increased to a

four month high of 52.9 in September from 51.9 in August due to surging
Emerging domestic demand.
economies • China’s GDP is expected to rise 9.5% in 2010 accelerating from 9.1% in 2009.
The economy grew at 11.9% in the first quarter and 10.3% in the second
quarter. 5
 IIP monthly data
20.0% • The GDP growth rate for Q1 FY11 came in at 8.8%
18.0%
16.0% backed by a strong growth in manufacturing and
14.0% agricultural output.
12.0%
10.0%
8.0% • The Manufacturing sector grew by 12.4 per cent
6.0% during April-June, 2010, against 3.8 per cent in the
1-Jul 1-Aug 1-Sep 1-Oct 1-Nov 1-Dec 1-Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar 1-Apr 1-May 1-Jun 1-Jul
same period last fiscal while agricultural output
witnessed a growth of 2.8 percent (y-o-y) due to
improved harvests. The services sector saw a
• Industrial output as measured by the Index of moderated growth over last year with business
Industrial Production (IIP) grew by 13.8% (y-o-y) services growing at a rate of 8% against 11.8% last
in July 10 as compared to 7.3% in June 10. The year.
growth was driven by a 63% growth in the
Capital Goods sector. • The Finance ministry is targeting FY11 growth at
~8.50% - 8.75%. We believe the current target is
• Growth in manufacturing, which constitutes sustainable as we expect manufacturing and
around 80 per cent of the IIP increased to 15 per service sectors to continue to drive growth in the
cent for the month over last year. next few quarters, even as farm output stages a
turnaround.
• The manufacturing PMI fell to 55.1 in September 10
GDP growth
from 57.25 in August indicating a strong growth 9
8
but at a weakening pace. 7
6
• We believe the growth in IIP will remain robust 5
but will eventually moderate out and may end 4
lower than that seen in the first part of the fiscal. FY09 (Q1) FY09 (Q2) FY09 (Q3) FY09 (Q4) FY10 (Q1) FY10(Q2) FY10(Q3) FY10(Q4) FY11(Q1)

6
 Growth in credit & deposits of SCBs
Bank Credit Aggregate Deposits
23.0%

21.0%
• Inflation as measured by WPI stood at 8.5%
19.0%

17.0%
(y-o-y) for the month of August -10 as compared
15.0% to 9.97% during July 10. These figures are based
13.0% on the new base year and WPI list.
11.0%

9.0%

7.0% • We expect WPI inflation numbers to moderate

5.0% in m-o-m inflation numbers due to the expected
Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10
decrease in food inflation and the monetary
tightening stance by RBI. This will also happen
due to the base effect coming into play.
• After ten months of sustained increase, bank credit
growth decreased in the month of August to 19.4%
as compared to 19.7% in the month of July 2010. 12.0%
10.0% Inflation
• We expect credit growth to further improve in the 8.0%
next few quarters and settle at ~20% levels on the
6.0%
back of improving business confidence and decline
4.0%
in risk aversion on the part of banks. Increase in
2.0%
exposure to Infrastructure projects is also expected
0.0%
in the second half of the fiscal.
Oct-09

Jan-10

Mar-10

Jun-10
May-10
Aug-09

Nov-09

Apr-10

Aug-10
Jul-09

Sep-09

Feb-10

Jul-10
Dec-09
-2.0%

7
The issues of abundance

Indian equity participants have been pleasantly surprised by the unabated flow of foreign funds, and the month of September set a new
record. These inflows are nothing but a reflection of the attention that India has drawn as a promising emerging market. Despite Sensex
racing ahead, India focused equity funds continued to receive unprecedented magnitude of inflow. As per EPFR Global, around USD 300
mn were received in the week ending September 22, 2010 – the highest ever. These inflows have led to the Indian Rupee rising to a
four-month high, raising discomfort among the policy makers, especially the RBI. Certainly, the central bank is concerned about the
problems it poses for monetary policy. Time and again, various institutions have warned against the destabilizing impact of uncontrolled
foreign inflows. But unlike countries like Brazil and Russia, India runs a trade deficit that is large and growing. The effect of foreign
inflows has been muted so far. But this could change if this flow transforms into an uncontrollable deluge.

With still a quarter to go and the recent momentum,

FII inflows are expected to touch USD 25 bn for
CY10. Anything uncontrollable will trigger policy
action.

The choice available with the policy makers to is not so straight

forward. If the capital flows exceed the absorption capacity of the
economy, RBI will either have to let Indian Rupee appreciate, or
intervene in the currency markets. The former impacts the exporters
while the later leads to excessive supply of Indian Rupee thereby
further fuelling inflationary pressures. That is clearly an unenviable
position to be in. So even as FII flows drive the markets, we need to be
watchful for such a policy action.
8
More of index movement than markets

The move in the market has not been homogeneous. As is the nature of any FII-led rally, this too has been concentrated much more on
the index stocks. Even as Nifty moved up by almost 11.6% in the month of September, Nifty Junior and CNX Midcap have moved by a far
more humble 5.6% each. This could be because of evident caution exercised by the domestic financial institutions and the retail segment.
The frontline index stocks have outperformed mid-
caps by a wide margin.

Market outlook

We believe that despite wholesome valuations and skepticism among the domestic investors, the markets will continue to stay buoyant.
Till such time as FIIs remain the driving force, the large cap businesses will continue to find favor. We also believe that with the rising risk
appetite sectors such as real estate, commodities and financial services will now dominate the next leg of market move. The news flow
from the western world, China and Japan has been positive for some time now but it would be premature to declare all-green. FII flows
are notoriously volatile and a short term correction due to adverse news clip cannot be ruled out. But there is nothing to indicate a large
sized correction that is feared by some sections of the market observers.

Our investment strategy is derived out of our current cautious stance on markets. We believe that current valuations are fair – neither
dirt-cheap, nor prohibitively expensive. Indian markets will continue to be vulnerable to global news flow (from west) despite a strong
domestic economy. 9
 FII & MF data Sales growth

25000.0 FII MF
20000.0

15000.0

10000.0
• Substantial improvement in sales was witnessed in Q2 & Q3
5000.0 mainly in consumption oriented sectors of the economy.
0.0 Current Results by corporates show a strong Sales growth
for the current quarter while consolidated figures are yet to
-5000.0
come.
-10000.0 • We expect improvement in sales in upcoming quarters;
-15000.0 especially in the manufacturing space as domestic demand
picks up.
80

• FIIs invested ` 24,978 Cr. in equities in the month of

60
Profit growth
40

September alone, driving the markets to 20k levels. The 20

(% )
markets also gained throughout the month on cues of
0

-20 FY07 (Q1) FY07 (Q2) FY07 (Q3) FY07 (Q4) FY08 (Q1) FY08 (Q2) FY08 (Q3) FY08 (Q4) FY09 (Q1) FY09 (Q2) FY09 (Q3) FY09 (Q4)

stable macroeconomic indicators. -40

-60

• Mutual Funds sold around ` 6,819 Cr in the month of

September as Corporates and Banks exited the markets. • Recent Q3 & Q4 numbers have beaten estimates with
Banks are currently gaining a higher rate of ~5.75% (Call higher sales and better operational efficiency aiding profit
rate) as compared to returns given by Liquid funds. growth.

• Margins are expected to remain stable in the following

quarters as lower interest costs are offset by higher raw
material costs 10
Recommendation Sector Rationale

Higher credit growth, well managed NPAs, improved capital market

BFSI activities and expectations of reforms

Industrials Focus on infrastructure spend intact

Robust domestic demand, income growth, favorable demographics, rapid

Automobiles urbanization
Overweight
With strong rural demand and good agricultural incomes, we expect the
FMCG sector to continue growing at good volumes

Resilient demand in CRAMS, generics opportunity getting better and

Healthcare strong pressure on governments to reduce public healthcare costs

An upturn in investment activities bodes well for the sector. The

Metals leverage in the sector has improved for better

Volatile currency, rising wages pressure and protectionism noises in the

IT west ask for caution

Neutral
Lower volumes, affordability issues and the leverage on the balance
Real Estate sheets of the companies

11
 Tenets of our investment philosophy
Efficient diversification
• Economic themes
• Sectors • Capital efficiency
• Companies & groups • Size of opportunity
• Volatility factor • Reasonable gearing
• Quality management
• Capital allocation

Quality
Active risk Focus
mitigation

• Fundamental research
Research • Analytical rigor
Intensity • Margin of safety
• Low churn • Management meetings
• Long only approach
• No cash calls
• High conviction driven
Long term

Superior compounding
12
Stock Selection Portfolio Portfolio Review
Construction

Investment Investment
Deviation Tolerance
Universe Objective

Risk quotient band

Degree of
diversification

Portfolio
Valuations Attribution Analysis
Psychographics

Macroeconomic Performance
Quality filters
View Appraisal

Management
Grading

Buy / sell note

Documentation Independent Audit

13
 Basic Theme
A diversified portfolio of stocks that seeks Alpha through superior stock selection. The Portfolio Management adopts a comprehensive
approach and invests across sectors, investment themes and market capitalization categories.

Portfolio Details Absolute Returns (%)

Entry Load Nil Comparatives 3 Month Since Inception
Exit Load Nil (Full management fee to be levied if redeemed before 1 yr)
Management Fee 1.5% p.a. Alpha Portfolio 11.59% 23.74%
Profit Share 20% of Outperformance over 12% 13.5% 19.82%
S&P CNX Nifty

Top 10 Holdings Sector Allocation Performance

Reliance Industries 11.2%
25% Alpha Portfolio 23.74%
State Bank of India 6.5%
Others Nifty
HDFC 6.4% IT 16%
Financials 19.82%
23% 20%
ICICI Bank 6.3% 6%
Oil & Gas
Infosys 6.1% 11% Consumer 15% 13.50%
Goods
Larsen & Toubro 6.1% Healthcare 16% 11.59%
Capital 10%
BHEL 5.6% 12%
Goods
16%
Bharti Airtel 4.4%
5%
Nestle 4.3%
Titan 4.2% 0%
Top 10 Stock Concentration 61.1% 3M Since Inception (30/11/09)
14
• DELTA seeks to invest in a portfolio of mutual funds through a PMS route that aims to would provide higher
returns than the blended benchmark.

• The asset allocation between Debt and Equity would be done on the basis of the risk profile of the investor
(conservative, moderate or aggressive)

• There is further allocation into sub-asset classes depending on our views on the same

• The portfolio would be reviewed and rebalanced regularly to maintain the asset allocation and the right
selection of funds

Asset Allocation for DELTA:

Asset Class DELTA Conservative DELTA Moderate DELTA Aggressive

Equity 43% 66% 82%

Debt 57% 34% 18%

15
15
 Since Inception (29/4/09)
Portfolios 6 Months (Absolute) 1 Year (Absolute)
CAGR
Conservative 9.3% 19.4% 36.3%
Market Return Benchmark 7.9% 12.2% 26.4%
Absolute Return Benchmark 3.4% 7.0%

Moderate 12.8% 24.6% 50.8%

Market Return Benchmark 10.9% 15.7% 38.0%
Absolute Return Benchmark 3.4% 7.0%

Aggressive 15.0% 29.3% 62.3%

Market Return Benchmark 12.9% 18.1% 46.6%
Absolute Return Benchmark 3.4% 7.0%
*(Returns as on 31st September 2010)

Asset Class Benchmarks

Market Return Benchmark: Equity BSE 200

Market Return Benchmark: Debt CRISIL Composite Bond Fund Index
Absolute Return Benchmark SBI 1 year Fixed deposit rate
16
 9.00 Yield curve
8.50
• The benchmark 10 yr G-sec yield decreased
8.00
from 7.97% in August to settle around 7.85% in
7.50
the month of September.
7.00

6.50
• We believe that future monetary tightening
6.00 measures are unlikely to have a major impact on
10.49
10.99
11.49
11.99
12.48
12.98
13.48
13.98
14.48
14.98
15.48
15.98
16.47
16.97
17.47
17.97
18.47
18.97
19.47
19.96
0.02
0.52
1.02
1.52
2.01
2.51
3.01
3.51
4.01
4.51
5.01
5.50
6.00
6.50
7.00
7.50
8.00
8.50
8.99
9.49
9.99

the longer end of the yield curve and once the

(%)

inflation drops, the yields may peak out around

8% levels. We expect the 10 yr G-sec yields to
remain in the broad range of 7.5 – 8.5% in the
• We expect yields at the longer end of the yield
next few quarters.
curve to remain stable. High inflation, monetary
tightening and rising credit growth will keep the
yields at the longer end range bound. 8.2 10-yr G-sec yield
8

• Due to rising inflationary expectations, there may 7.8

be further interest rate hike by RBI in the 7.6

7.4
November review but will stabilize around 7.5 –
7.2
8.5% levels by year end. 7

6.8

17
 Category Outlook Details

We recommend short term bond funds with a 6-12 month

investment horizon as we expect them to deliver superior
Short Tenure returns due to high YTM and concerns over credit quality ease
Debt as the economy recovers, thereby prompting ratings upgrade.

Positive economic climate has reduced credit risks without a

commensurate decrease in credit spreads. Some AA and select
Credit A rated securities are very attractive at the current yields. A
similar trend can be seen in the Fixed Deposits also. Tight
liquidity in the system has also contributed to widening of the
spreads making entry at current levels attractive.

We expect yields at the longer end of the yield curve to top out
Long Tenure soon. Yields may move to the broad range of 7.5– 8.5% in the
Debt next few quarters. As the inflationary pressure settles down
towards the end of the fiscal, these may be an attractive
investment. We recommend gradual entry into long tenor debt.
18
 Rupee movement vis-à-vis other currencies (M-o-M) Trade balance and export-import data
5.0% 80 Export Import Trade Balance (mn $) 0
4.0% 60 -2000

3.0% -4000
40
2.0% -6000
20
1.0% -8000
0
0.0% -10000
-20 -12000
-1.0% Euro Japanese Yen British Pound US Dollar Singapore
Dollar -40 -14000
-2.0%
-3.0%
• Exports for the month of August increased by 22.5% y-o-y
while imports increased by 32.2% increasing the trade
deficit to USD 13,035 Mn.
•The Rupee appreciated v/s the US dollar in the month of 140000
September due to weak data in the U.S. markets. Capital Account Balance
90000

• Our medium term view is that the rupee is likely to 40000

strengthen further in 2010. Higher interest rates in India
would attract large capital flows. Moreover the government is
expected to simplify the rules on foreign inflows to facilitate
larger foreign capital inflows in the form of FDI
-10000
FY 07 FY 07 FY 07 FY 07 FY 08 FY 08 FY 08 FY 08 FY 09 FY 09 FY 09 FY 09 FY 10 FY 10 FY 10 FY 10
(Q1) (Q2) (Q3) (Q4) (Q1) (Q2) (Q3) (Q4) (Q1) (Q2) (Q3) (Q4) (Q1) (Q2) (Q3) (Q4)
-60000
• Capital account balance was positive throughout FY10 and
ended at `2,53,058 Cr. for the year.
• We expect the capital account balance to remain positive
as higher interest rates would make investment in the
Indian markets attractive hence drawing investments into
the market.
19
 20000
19500 Gold Spot
• India and China will continue to provide the main thrust of 19000
overall growth in demand, particularly for gold jewellery, for the 18500
18000
remainder of 2010. Retail investment will continue to be a 17500

Precious substantial source of gold demand in Europe. Added to this the 17000
16500
forthcoming festive season in India is expected to keep the 16000
Metals demand strong during the seasonally strong 4Q. The ongoing 15500
15000
nervousness in the global financial market would further aid the

Oct-09

Apr-10

Jul-10
Feb-10

Mar-10

May-10
Jan-10

Jun-10
Sep-09

Nov-09

Dec-09

Aug-10
Sep-10
safe haven buying. Any correction thus should be treated as an
opportunity to hold this metal.

• The crude prices increased by 6% (y-o-y) in September. This was

due to depreciation of the USD, uncertainty in the Global
markets and reduced inventory levels. During the month, prices 90

moved between $73-$80 per barrel. These are expected to be 85 Crude

Oil & Gas steady in Q2 due to no significant seasonal demand (Q2 is the
80
75
maintenance season for refineries) 70

• Natural gas prices are expected to trade lower in Q2 owing to 65

speculation over weak demand. 60

Nov 09

Dec 09
Sep 09

Aug 10

Sep 10
Oct 09

Apr 10

Jul 10
Feb 10

Mar 10
Jan 10

May 10

Jun 10
20
Karvy Principal Protected Note Linked to MCX Gold price

Issuer Karvy Financial Services Limited

Tenor 36 / 40 months
Index MCX Front Month Futures Gold price
Minimum Investment Rs. 5,00,000
Principal Protection 100%
Participation Rate 140%
Initial Level Official Closing level of MCX Front Month Futures Gold Price on DDA
Final Level Average of Official Closing level of MCX Front Month Futures Gold Price on
DDA+1M, DDA+2M, DDA+3M ……..DDA+36M * for all 36 months+
Outcomes at Maturity Note Return
Payoff Max { 0%, PR* (Final Level/Initial Level -1)}

45% 45% return x 140% participation rate 63%

35% 35% return x 140% participation rate 49%

-20% Full principal protection below zero 0%

This example is for illustrative purpose only and does not constitute a guaranteed return or performance. 21
 Leveraging breadth of related businesses that KARVY is in
KARVY is an integrated financial services group, with Karvy Private Wealth being one of its arms. The entire
group’s strengths are leveraged to provide end-to-end wealth advice to Karvy Private Wealth clients. For
example, SME clients can receive advice on their personal wealth while also getting investment banking advice
from the I-banking arm of Karvy.

Maximum choice of products & services

KARVY Private Wealth offers the widest breadth of products and services, providing clients a variety of options
through a single contact. Products and services include equities, debt instruments, commodities, Mutual Funds,
Insurance, Structured Products, Financial Planning, real estate advice, etc.

Product-neutral advice

We ensure that our recommendations are 100% product-neutral and unbiased because unlike other players,
we are neither tied up with any one particular insurance company nor do we have our own mutual funds.

All-India presence
Set to have business in 20 - 25 cities we are poised to cater to families and businesses spread across multiple
cities in India providing them with combined and integrated advice. For one-off services, if required, we can
also leverage KARVY Group’s presence in 400 cities.
22
The information and views presented here are prepared by Karvy Private Wealth or other Karvy Group companies. The
information contained herein is based on our analysis and upon sources that we consider reliable. We, however, do not vouch
for the accuracy or the completeness thereof. This material is for personal information and we are not responsible for any loss
incurred based upon it.

The investments discussed or recommended here may not be suitable for all investors. Investors must make their own
investment decisions based on their specific investment objectives and financial position and using such independent advice,
as they believe necessary. While acting upon any information or analysis mentioned here, investors may please note that
neither Karvy nor any person connected with any associated companies of Karvy accepts any liability arising from the use of
this information and views mentioned here.

The author, directors and other employees of Karvy and its affiliates may hold long or short positions in the above-mentioned
companies from time to time. Every employee of Karvy and its associated companies are required to disclose their individual
stock holdings and details of trades, if any, that they undertake. The team rendering corporate analysis and investment
recommendations are restricted in purchasing/selling of shares or other securities till such a time this recommendation has
either been displayed or has been forwarded to clients of Karvy. All employees are further restricted to place orders only
through Karvy Stock Broking Ltd.

The information given in this document on tax are for guidance only, and should not be construed as tax advice. Investors are
advised to consult their respective tax advisers to understand the specific tax incidence applicable to them. We also expect
significant changes in the tax laws once the new Direct Tax Code is in force – this could change the applicability and incidence
of tax on investments

23
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24