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Dimensionality in Congress
John Aldrich
Jacob Montgomery
David Sparks
September 1, 2010
Aldrich, Montgomery, Sparks (Duke) Drawing (Inferences) Outside the Lines September 1, 2010 1 / 29
The Main Event
Aldrich, Montgomery, Sparks (Duke) Drawing (Inferences) Outside the Lines September 1, 2010 2 / 29
The Main Event
A: No.
Aldrich, Montgomery, Sparks (Duke) Drawing (Inferences) Outside the Lines September 1, 2010 2 / 29
Expanded Research Question
Aldrich, Montgomery, Sparks (Duke) Drawing (Inferences) Outside the Lines September 1, 2010 3 / 29
Simulation
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Estimation
Aldrich, Montgomery, Sparks (Duke) Drawing (Inferences) Outside the Lines September 1, 2010 5 / 29
Estimation
Aldrich, Montgomery, Sparks (Duke) Drawing (Inferences) Outside the Lines September 1, 2010 5 / 29
Estimation
Aldrich, Montgomery, Sparks (Duke) Drawing (Inferences) Outside the Lines September 1, 2010 5 / 29
More Dimensions, Better Fit
Y Y
YYY Y
P
Cutpoint
Dimension 2
P SQ
YY NN YYYYY N Y N Y NNNN Cut−line N
Y Y N N
Y N
N
SQ
N
NN
Aldrich, Montgomery, Sparks (Duke) Drawing (Inferences) Outside the Lines September 1, 2010 6 / 29
Poole and Rosenthal’s WNOMINATE method always results in lower dimensionality
than does PCA.
Aldrich, Montgomery, Sparks (Duke) Drawing (Inferences) Outside the Lines September 1, 2010 7 / 29
Some Simple Examples
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Aldrich, Montgomery, Sparks (Duke) Drawing (Inferences) Outside the Lines September 1, 2010 8 / 29
Some Simple Examples
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Aldrich, Montgomery, Sparks (Duke) Drawing (Inferences) Outside the Lines September 1, 2010 9 / 29
Some Simple Examples
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Aldrich, Montgomery, Sparks (Duke) Drawing (Inferences) Outside the Lines September 1, 2010 10 / 29
Some Simple Examples
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Aldrich, Montgomery, Sparks (Duke) Drawing (Inferences) Outside the Lines September 1, 2010 11 / 29
Some Simple Examples
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Aldrich, Montgomery, Sparks (Duke) Drawing (Inferences) Outside the Lines September 1, 2010 12 / 29
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Aldrich, Montgomery, Sparks (Duke) Drawing (Inferences) Outside the Lines September 1, 2010 13 / 29
Some Simple Examples
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Aldrich, Montgomery, Sparks (Duke) Drawing (Inferences) Outside the Lines September 1, 2010 14 / 29
Some Simple Examples
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Aldrich, Montgomery, Sparks (Duke) Drawing (Inferences) Outside the Lines September 1, 2010 15 / 29
Some Simple Examples
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Aldrich, Montgomery, Sparks (Duke) Drawing (Inferences) Outside the Lines September 1, 2010 16 / 29
Some Simple Examples
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Aldrich, Montgomery, Sparks (Duke) Drawing (Inferences) Outside the Lines September 1, 2010 17 / 29
Basic Spatial Voting
Aldrich, Montgomery, Sparks (Duke) Drawing (Inferences) Outside the Lines September 1, 2010 18 / 29
Real versus recovered dimensions under basic spatial voting
Aldrich, Montgomery, Sparks (Duke) Drawing (Inferences) Outside the Lines September 1, 2010 19 / 29
Visualizing an increase in the distance between party distribution means.
Aldrich, Montgomery, Sparks (Duke) Drawing (Inferences) Outside the Lines September 1, 2010 20 / 29
Basic spatial voting model with party separation
Aldrich, Montgomery, Sparks (Duke) Drawing (Inferences) Outside the Lines September 1, 2010 21 / 29
Spatial voting, varying dimensions of party separation
Increasing the number of dimensions along which parties are separated tends to reduce
estimates of dimensionality.
Aldrich, Montgomery, Sparks (Duke) Drawing (Inferences) Outside the Lines September 1, 2010 22 / 29
Basic distributive politics
Priority for inclusion in distributive coalition:
1 if rij > rankα (rj )
Bij = (4)
0 if rij < rankα (rj )
Voting decision; yea iff in coalition:
1 if Bij = 1
yij = (5)
0 if Bij = 0
Aldrich, Montgomery, Sparks (Duke) Drawing (Inferences) Outside the Lines September 1, 2010 23 / 29
Real versus recovered dimensions under distributive politics
Aldrich, Montgomery, Sparks (Duke) Drawing (Inferences) Outside the Lines September 1, 2010 24 / 29
Conclusions
Aldrich, Montgomery, Sparks (Duke) Drawing (Inferences) Outside the Lines September 1, 2010 25 / 29
Mixing distributive and spatial motivations
Aldrich, Montgomery, Sparks (Duke) Drawing (Inferences) Outside the Lines September 1, 2010 26 / 29
Mixing distributive and spatial motivations.
Aldrich, Montgomery, Sparks (Duke) Drawing (Inferences) Outside the Lines September 1, 2010 27 / 29
Distributive and spatial motivations, with party bias.
Distributive voting with no party bias is essentially random, party bias does not effect
spatially-motivated voting.
Aldrich, Montgomery, Sparks (Duke) Drawing (Inferences) Outside the Lines September 1, 2010 28 / 29
Distributive and spatial motivations, with party separation.