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DISCLOSURE APPENDIX AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, ANALYST
CERTIFICATIONS, LEGAL ENTITY DISCLOSURE AND THE STATUS OF NON-US ANALYSTS. US Disclosure: Credit
Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware
that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report
as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
27 March 2017
Company Overview
From a mission statement point of view, Snap defines itself as a camera company, but in a
more practical everyday perspective, we view it as a photo messaging/communications
app that also serves a variety of other use cases. Snap currently has 158 million Daily
Active Users who visit the app on average 18 times per day spending 25 to 30 minutes on
the platform.
As shown in the flowchart in Figure 1, the app opens directly to the camera and users can
transition to other features such as Chat and Stories by simply swiping left or right.
Add Friends
Home Screen Add friends,
Take Snap by see who has
touching the added you to Stories
camera button, their contacts Friends stories + your own
Chat swipe to access (top) as well as live and
View snaps sent other features professional stories (bottom)
to you or open a
direct
conversation
with a friend
OR Tap
OR Tap OR Tap
Discover
View professionally
Memories
created content from
View saved content brands/news sites
created within the app, +
exclusively for Snap
view and send
Spectacles content
As we will reference certain tabs throughout this report, we have compiled the diagram in
Figure 1 to give those who are not as familiar with the app a reference point. With this in
mind, however, the deciding factor for Snap's long-term shareholder value creation really
boils down to its ability to serve its two most important constituents – the consumer as well
as the advertiser.
Snapchat Has High Consumer Engagement Due to Its Sprawling Value
Proposition
A Short Video Is Worth a Thousand Words – and Maybe It Is More Fun Too: We
believe Snapchat's underlying value proposition lies in the fact that it is much easier to
take a short video or picture and send to a contact to communicate versus the text-based
alternatives via SMS or email.
While users are already there, Snap also has professionally developed short-form content
with the ability to swipe to view longer-form pieces on the Discover tab with the optionality
to pull the professional content into the Stories tab by subscribing to a channel, thus
creating effectively a newsfeed of videos.
The notion that a messenger/chat app has high utility should be no surprise, but as we
expand the thought process further and look to reconcile with Snapchat's relatively high
~30 minutes per day engagement per user, we have to note that the app cuts across
many of what we believe to be the most popular use cases of the smartphone.
Text Messaging
Browsing Internet
Voice/Video Call
Social Networking
Video
Photo/Camera
As shown in Figure 2, when we line up Snapchat's functionalities versus the "house" app
from Apple/iOS as well as the offerings from the more popular operators, it cuts across a
wide range of use cases. While we are not suggesting that as a video offering it is as
robust as Netflix or YouTube, for its user base, the Discover and Stories tabs do serve as
an alternate form of entertainment.
At the time of its launch, Snapchat was for all intents and purposes a photo/video
messaging app, but over the past several years, it has accelerated its product release
cadence – this has been one of the primary drivers of its user growth. In Figure 3, we
layout the correlation between new product releases and Snap's Daily Active User growth.
Face Swap
Chat Stickers
3D Stickers
Memories
Bitmoji
Geostickers
As a major part of the investment thesis hinges on user and engagement growth as well
as Snap's ability to retain its users, the product development efforts of CEO Evan Spiegel
and his team are key. Hence we expect to see the chart in Figure 3 continue to show new
and incremental product releases into 2017 and beyond.
Value Proposition to Advertisers to Ramp Over Time—A Closer Look at
Sponsored Creative Tools
Creative Tools started in 2014 with Geofilters and were further enhanced with the launch
of Lenses in 2015, as Snap continues to give users more options for interacting with the
content created on its platform above and beyond just sending a basic picture. While it
may be fairly intuitive that new product development will augur user/engagement growth, it
is also significant for the development of advertising revenue, as Snap has comingled the
natural experience in the app with the ad unit development in order to preserve the user
experience as evidenced in Figure 4 and Figure 5 in the case of Geofilters and Lenses.
Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates. Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates.
We believe this is significantly important to point out that, when using Sponsored
Geofilters or Sponsored Lenses, they do not detract from the natural user experience or
consume an incremental amounts of the user's time – rather, they are merely extensions
of what looks like user-generated activity on the platform. This is not a coincidence either;
Snap has taken explicit steps to intertwine the teams that build the consumer-facing
features with those who develop Snap's ad products.
For Lenses, once the creative has been produced, it is fairly straightforward for a user to
apply and then, triggered by some action (opening their mouth, raising their eyebrows,
etc.) occurring in their video, the Lense is set in motion. Geofilters are applied in a similar
manner but do not require a trigger and can be applied to photos. Snap currently sells
Geofilters for a variety of use cases to advertisers, which are depicted in Figure 6 and can
be purchased for a specific geo-fenced location up to a national campaign.
The On-Demand Geofilters were one of the first products to be rolled out to the Self Serve
API, and we imagine all of their Sponsored Creative Tools will eventually become
available for purchase through the API. Another benefit Sponsored Creative Tools confer
to advertisers is that the message will ultimately be sent to one or more recipients, which
creates an audience they can target for re-engagement with Snap Ads.
While Snap does have the ability to measure Snap-to-Store conversions (i.e., those who
either sent or viewed a particular ad and then went to the store), we have to imagine that it
is mainly brand advertisers purchasing these Sponsored Creatives for now.
Snap Ads
Snap Ads are delivered in multiple places throughout the Stories and Discovery tab,
typically being shown to users after they watch a certain number of videos. Snap Ads can
take the form of a straightforward video or Snap Ads with Attachments, which prompt the
user to swipe up after the initial ad (depicted by red circle in Figure 7) in order to further
engage with the content or take subsequent action such as installing an app. Examples of
the different types of attachments currently available for advertisers are shown in Figure 7.
Swipe Swipe
₵2 ₵2
₵2 ₵2 ₵10 ₵10 ₵2 ₵2
Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates. Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates.
Underpinning the advertisers' willingness to bid more for impressions on users 'Likely to
Swipe' is Snap's targeting and measurement ability – i.e., are the users actually doing
what the advertiser is optimizing the campaign for and can Snap prove that they are. If
Snap is successful implementing Goal-Based Delivery, it opens the platform up to a
number of solutions for advertisers such as App Installs, and as these direct response
budgets are typically uncapped, this could drive meaningful upside relative to our current
estimates.
As we have noted earlier, our conversations with advertisers throughout 2016 suggest that
they are more than happy to spend money on a third platform, as over the past few years
they have become increasingly concerned as budgets and bargaining power coalesce
around Google and Facebook.
Figure 10: Sources of Mobile Ad Revenue (ex-China) Growth from 2015 to 2016
USD in billions
3.3 63.7
8.7
9.3
42.5
While we do not know exactly what percentage of Google revenue is derived from mobile
vs. desktop, for the purpose of this analysis, we assume ~42% in 2015 and ~45% in 2016
was from mobile, and in which case, it stands to reason that Facebook and Google
accounted for 85% of the incremental mobile ad dollars in 2016. From an advertiser's point
of view, this creates a scenario whereby Google and Facebook can do things such as limit
the ad load growth, which in turn, pushes up the auction pricing and compresses the ROI
the marketers are able to drive for their clients.
However, even if we exclude TV budgets, there is still a ~$120b opportunity from offline
sources.
It is also important to highlight that this is not a winner-take-all scenario in which Snap
must offer an ROI that is better than Facebook or Google to gain meaningful budget
allocations. In terms of the rank order of ROI's available out there – our conversations
suggest that Google Search remains the highest given the inherent intent level – while
Facebook is in second place, the gap to other alternatives remains 2-3x higher.
As this is largely an execution story for Snap in demonstrating/measuring the ROI on its
platform going forward, we felt it was prudent to sanity check our ARPU estimates against
what we believe to be the time-adjusted ARPU per daily active user in North America for
Facebook and Twitter when they were in a similar stage of monetizing on mobile – for
Snap, t=1 is 1Q15; for FB, t=1 is 2Q12; and for TWTR, t=1 is 1Q10.
Figure 12: Snap Inc.—North American Average Revenue per Daily Active User vs. Facebook, Twitter
in USD
$8.0
$7.0
$6.0
$5.0
$4.0
7.5 7.2
$3.0 5.8
4.8
$2.0 3.9 4.1 4.0 3.9
3.3 3.0
2.8 2.6 2.8
$1.0 2.1 2.2 2.0 2.1
1.8 1.7
1.2 0.7 0.4 1.4
0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.1 0.2
1.1 0.4 0.2 0.7 1.2 1.1 1.1
$0.0
t=1
t=2
t=3
t=4
t=5
t=6
t=7
t=8
t=9
t=10
t=11
t=12
FB North American ARPU Snap North American ARPU TWTR US ARPU
Snap is currently monetizing at a rate that is slightly better than where Twitter was when it
was at a similar stage but less than that of Facebook in North America. On a go-forward
basis, we believe our estimates are appropriately conservative, as we believe that these
two platforms represent the upper and lower bounds in terms of execution in serving the
needs of its advertisers. With that said, however, the optionality remains for Snap to
monetize along the same trajectory as FB if it is able to make it easy for advertisers to
spend money on its platform, and in that scenario, our long-term ARPU and Revenue
estimates are most likely too low.
Figure 13: North America Daily Active Users Figure 14: Europe Daily Active Users Comparison,
Comparison, 4Q16 4Q16
in millions in millions
180 262
68
35 52
Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates. Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates.
Contrary to the Facebook, Snap does not have a mission statement to connect all users in
all regions, and given the incremental cost to serve each user, the company will be
selective about the regions in which it will compete for the user's attention. We expect
Snap to remain in active pursuit of users and ad dollars in North America and Europe but
believe Rest of World expansion will likely be limited to Australia/New Zealand, the Middle
East, Latin America, India, and South Africa.
As we think longer-term about where penetration rates may go in North America and
Europe, we draw on what the company has already seen in Norway, which is its most
penetrated market. In Norway, it has roughly 50% of the addressable smartphone user
base on the platform.
Europe
Aggregate Population 637 649 659
Addressable Smartphone Users 307 346 384
Snap DAUs 30 91 134
Implied Snap Europe Penetration 9.8% 26.3% 34.9%
ROW
Aggregate Population 3780 3963 4159
Addressable Smartphone Users 1475 1737 2025
Snap DAUs 19 77 122
Implied Snap ROW Penentration 1.3% 4.5% 6.0%
Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates.
In Norway, it took Snap two years to move from ~33% to its current ~50%, and it is
currently at ~33% in the U.S. and Canada. We conservatively forecast Snap will reach
penetration levels similar to what it currently enjoys in Norway in North America over the
next ten years, with Europe slightly behind. Our DAU assumptions do not include any
contribution from Southeast Asia, as Snap faces significant competition in the region from
LINE, Naver, Kakaotalk, and Wechat, which are already scaled and likely better
resourced/executing for the local user base.
Spectacles Cost of Goods Sold: While we do not know what the component costs for
Spectacles are, we have elected to take the stance that the underlying rationale for
introducing the product was to accelerate content creation for the app that you can
eventually sell native advertising against and hence choose to believe that it is selling
Spectacles at a negative gross margin.
We are happy to be wrong here and would view the contribution as nice free cash flow dollars
to have, but believe that the investment thesis for Snap shares is predicated on the advertising
opportunity. We also believe investors would react negatively to misexecution of a new
advertising unit that was made up in the reported results by outperformance in hardware.
Adding this all up, we arrive at a Revenue CAGR from 2016 to 2021 of 73%, which is
nearly double the Cost of Goods Sold CAGR of 36%, which leads to the gross margin
dynamics shown in Figure 17.
North America 68.0 77.0 87.3 96.2 105.4 114.5 121.5 128.7 136.2 142.9
Europe 52.0 64.2 74.1 84.2 95.0 103.8 112.1 120.4 129.1 137.3
Rest of World 39.0 50.4 62.3 71.7 80.8 89.3 98.2 107.7 117.4 124.5
Moving on to the Average Revenue per Daily Active User projection, as we project forward
from the relative comparison we highlight in Figure 12, we assume that Snap follows
Twitter's monetization ramp.
North America ARPU $5.76 $11.24 $17.94 $24.18 $30.22 $36.26 $41.66 $46.86 $51.55 $55.52
Europe ARPU $0.76 $1.97 $4.89 $8.09 $12.13 $16.34 $20.41 $24.49 $28.16 $31.66
Rest of World ARPU $0.23 $0.91 $2.05 $3.58 $5.36 $7.22 $9.03 $10.83 $12.45 $13.98
Average Selling Price $130 $130 $78 $78 $78 $78 $78 $78 $78 $78
Spectacles Revenue 4.5 42.2 31.7 34.9 36.6 36.6 34.8 32.2 28.9 26.0
Figure 21: Snap Inc.—Cost of Revenue Key Input Variables and Assumptions
USD in millions, unless otherwise stated
2016A 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E
Daily Active Users 158.0 191.7 223.8 252.2 281.2 307.5 331.8 356.8 382.6 404.7
Average Time Spent per Day, in minutes 26.3 28.8 29.5 30.3 31.0 31.8 32.6 33.4 34.2 35.1
Total Hours Spent 22023.9 30641.8 37142.0 43690.6 50183.6 56779.7 63202.3 69779.0 76808.1 83834.4
Implied Cost to Serve a Billion Hours 15.5 17.8 18.4 18.4 18.4 18.4 18.4 18.4 18.4 18.4
Total Infrastructure Costs 341.9 545.5 684.8 805.6 925.3 1046.9 1165.3 1286.6 1416.2 1545.8
Spectacles Cost of Goods Sold 5.2 48.6 35.8 38.7 39.9 39.2 36.5 33.4 29.8 26.6
Content Measurement and Creation Cost 43.3 93.8 166.1 235.5 321.8 408.8 501.9 594.2 680.4 756.1
Partner Revenue Share 57.8 124.7 223.9 332.4 466.6 609.5 739.7 864.1 974.3 1063.7
Stock Based Compensation 0.5 52.4 1.9 2.8 3.8 4.7 5.5 6.2 6.7 6.9
Depreciation and Amortization 2.9 4.9 5.7 6.8 6.2 7.7 9.4 11.1 12.9 14.7
Total Cost of Goods Sold 451.7 869.9 1118.2 1421.8 1763.6 2116.8 2458.3 2795.7 3120.3 3413.7
We summarize the rest of our Operating Expense projections in Figure 22 – they currently
reflect an aggressive hiring level of ~350-400 people per quarter at an annualized cost of
~$350,000.
Figure 22: Snap Inc.—Operating Expense Key Input Variables and Assumptions
USD in millions, unless otherwise stated
2016A 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E
Research and Development 183.7 1646.6 525.0 707.4 911.3 1115.9 1308.3 1495.9 1677.9 1858.0
Sales and Marketing 124.4 617.3 495.1 698.1 880.4 1062.6 1222.3 1345.1 1446.4 1548.6
General and Administrative 165.2 872.4 470.6 570.2 657.5 731.4 793.3 839.7 878.6 908.4
Total Operating Expenses 473.2 3136.3 1490.7 1975.6 2449.3 2910.0 3323.9 3680.8 4002.8 4315.1
Cash Operating Expenses (Less SBC, D&A) 412.3 992.4 1359.4 1796.3 2236.9 2643.2 3008.6 3321.5 3607.2 3892.8
Headcount 1279 2684 4084 5484 6884 8284 9684 11084 12484 13884
Implied Annualized Cost per Employee (000) 322 370 333 328 325 319 311 300 289 280
Figure 23: Snap Inc.—Quarterly North American Figure 24: Snap Inc.—Quarterly North American
DAUs and Year-over-Year Growth ARPU and Year-over-Year Growth
in millions in USD
2Q15A
3Q15A
4Q15A
1Q16A
2Q16A
3Q16A
4Q16A
1Q17E
2Q17E
3Q17E
4Q17E
1Q15A
2Q15A
3Q15A
4Q15A
1Q16A
2Q16A
3Q16A
4Q16A
1Q17E
2Q17E
3Q17E
4Q17E
Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates. Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates.
We forecast North American Daily Active Users will reach 70 million in 1Q17 versus 68
million in 4Q16 and 54 million in 1Q16. We project North American Average Revenue per
User of $1.68 in 1Q17 compared to $2.15 in 4Q16 and $0.67 a year ago.
Figure 25: Snap Inc.—Quarterly European DAUs and Figure 26: Snap Inc.—Quarterly European ARPU
Year-over-Year Growth and Year-over-Year Growth
in millions in USD
2Q15A
3Q15A
4Q15A
1Q16A
2Q16A
3Q16A
4Q16A
1Q17E
2Q17E
3Q17E
4Q17E
1Q15A
2Q15A
3Q15A
4Q15A
1Q16A
2Q16A
3Q16A
4Q16A
1Q17E
2Q17E
3Q17E
4Q17E
Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates. Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates.
We forecast European Daily Active Users will reach 55 million in 1Q17 versus 52 million in
4Q16 and 39 million in 1Q16. We project European Average Revenue per User of $0.28 in
1Q17 compared to $0.28 in 4Q16 and $0.07 a year ago.
Figure 27: Snap Inc.—Quarterly Total Revenue and Figure 28: Snap Inc.—Non-GAAP Cost of Revenue
Year-over-Year Growth per User and Year-over-Year Growth
USD in millions in USD
1Q15A
2Q15A
3Q15A
4Q15A
1Q16A
2Q16A
3Q16A
4Q16A
1Q17E
2Q17E
3Q17E
4Q17E
1Q15A
2Q15A
3Q15A
4Q15A
1Q16A
2Q16A
3Q16A
4Q16A
1Q17E
2Q17E
3Q17E
4Q17E
Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates. Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates.
Adding it all up, we project total revenue of $149.9 million, and our estimate for Non-GAAP
gross profit ex-SBC is ($13.9) million, implying a (~9%) Non-GAAP gross margin.
Valuation
In-line with the valuation methodology we have used with the rest of our coverage
universe, we have based our target price for Snap on discounted cash flow analysis, which
suggests $30. We have used a weighted average cost of capital of 11% and a terminal
growth rate of 3%.
2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E
EBITDA (832.3) (492.2) (43.0) 633.9 1566.1 2597.5 3818.0 5134.3 6466.1 7805.2 9130.5
Net Income (2964.4) (612.9) (214.6) 428.9 1310.7 2302.5 2502.2 3350.6 4277.8 5215.1 6146.1
Depreciation & Amortization 48.7 56.8 68.2 61.8 77.0 93.6 110.9 128.7 146.9 166.5 186.4
Other Non-Cash Charges (Benefits) 2095.2 74.5 111.1 150.6 189.8 221.8 248.4 266.9 275.4 280.8 285.9
Interest Expense (Income) (11.8) (10.6) (7.8) (7.4) (11.4) (20.3) (33.1) (47.8) (67.5) (92.2) (121.9)
Changes in Operating Assets & Liabilities (104.4) (163.6) (159.1) (177.7) (184.6) (138.0) (93.7) (32.8) 47.2 118.7 188.1
Unlevered Cash Flows (936.7) (655.8) (202.1) 456.2 1381.5 2459.5 2734.7 3665.5 4679.9 5688.9 6684.6
Capital Expenditures 76.0 80.7 93.5 105.2 112.0 120.7 123.8 130.0 137.2 139.7 142.2
Unlevered Free Cash Flows (1012.7) (736.5) (295.7) 351.0 1269.5 2338.9 2610.9 3535.5 4542.7 5549.1 6542.4
Y/Y % Change (84.4)% 27.3% 59.9% 218.7% 261.7% 84.2% 11.6% 35.4% 28.5% 22.2% 17.9%
2017E
NPV of Unlevered Free Cash Flows 10108.1
Present Value of Terminal Value 29665.6
Enterprise Value 39773.7
Off-Balance Sheet Assets 0.0
Adjusted Enterprise Value 39773.7
Year End Net Debt (Cash) (2631.7)
Equity Value 42405.4
Diluted Shares Outstanding 1428.2
Equity Value Per Share $30
Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates.
As DCF-based target prices are subject to a wide range of variability based on weighted
average cost of capital as well as the terminal growth rates, we present a sensitivity table
based on these two metrics to help investors gauge where target prices could head based
on different inputs.
WACC
11.5% $25 $26 $27 $29 $30
12.0% $23 $24 $25 $26 $28
12.5% $22 $23 $23 $24 $25
13.0% $20 $21 $22 $23 $23
Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates.
Facebook Inc. 21.9x 16.5x 13.0x 34.8x 28.1x 22.1x 48.4x 36.1x 27.2x 14.0x 10.4x 8.3x
Kakao Corp 23.3x 17.5x 15.0x 68.6x 37.8x 32.6x 40.7x 25.5x 20.5x 3.7x 3.1x 2.8x
Line Corp 34.1x 21.5x 16.4x 131.3x 52.9x 36.8x 48.0x 27.1x 19.8x 6.1x 4.8x 3.9x
NAVER Corp. 21.3x 16.5x 13.9x 33.5x 26.6x 22.4x 26.5x 19.8x 16.3x 6.7x 5.6x 4.7x
Tencent Holdings Ltd. 29.2x 21.8x 17.9x 48.1x 35.4x 28.3x 34.5x 25.5x 21.0x 12.5x 9.0x 7.4x
Twitter, Inc. 12.0x 15.3x 13.2x 26.6x 53.1x 38.5x 19.4x 39.0x 24.9x 3.6x 3.8x 3.6x
Weibo Corporation 65.3x 31.7x 21.2x 60.6x 37.7x 26.3x 75.1x 37.7x 24.7x 15.6x 10.3x 7.7x
Market Cap Weighted Avg. 25.0x 18.6x 14.9x 40.9x 31.4x 24.8x 42.7x 31.8x 24.4x 12.9x 9.5x 7.7x
Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates.
Percent of Facebook's
100.0% $98b $69 203% $9.2b $2.8b
90.0% $87b $61 169% $8.2b $2.4b
current ARPU
80.0% $76b $53 134% $7.3b $1.9b
By 2020
70.0% $65b $45 100% $6.4b $1.5b
60.0% $54b $38 66% $5.5b $1.1b
50.0% $42b $30 31% $4.6b $0.6b
40.0% $31b $22 -3% $3.7b $0.2b
30.0% $20b $14 -38% $2.8b ($0.3b)
Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates.
In Figure 32, we show how our DCF-based target price should change as a percentage of
Facebook's level of monetization as a target for Snap to reach by the end of 2020. In other
words, what Snap's annual ARPU should be as a percentage of Facebook's current $80.
While Snap has already reached a monetization level in the U.S. equivalent to where
Twitter was at a similar point in its lifecycle and hence the ~50% mark above should serve
as a reference point, we present as our Grey Sky the 35% scenario which suggests ~$18.
The implicit assumption here is that Snap over the coming three-plus years does not keep
up with Twitter's monetization growth.
Our Blue Sky Target Price of $41 implies a 2020 monetization gap of ~65% relative to
Facebook's current levels, which implies that Snap over the coming three-plus years
modestly outpaces Twitter's monetization growth.
Investment Risks
Competition from Larger Online Operators: Snap faces increasingly intensifying
competition for advertising dollars as well as consumer engagement with new product
releases with larger and likely more well-resourced operators such as Facebook,
Instagram, Twitter, and YouTube in North America and Europe as well as LINE, Naver,
Kakaotalk, and Wechat in Asia-Pacific.
Migration of Snap’s Younger User Base to Alternative Platforms and Fast Followers:
The majority of Snap's users are in the 18-34 year old demographic, and as this is a
competitive advantage when trying to attract advertisers, we believe it is prudent to call out
the potential adverse impact to the ability to capture greater ad dollars if Snap were to lose
users in this key demographic to apps such as Snow and Musical.ly.
Failure to Address Advertiser Requests for Better Measurement Capabilities to
Calculate ROI: Snap is still in the process of rolling out tools that enable advertisers to
calculate and measure the ROI on their platform. As we continue to believe that most
advertisers are economically rational in allocating their ad budgets, we believe the ROI
that they are able to measure and derive on Snap relative to alternative platforms will be
the key driver of whether Snap is able to move out of the test budgets.
Lack of Traction in Consumer-Facing New Product Launches: As highlighted, Snap
faces a substantial degree of competition for users as well as time spent with their
products. Failure to drive consumer adoption of new product releases and subsequent
loss of engagement would be negative for user growth and engagement on the platform.
Failure to Scale Advertising Revenue: Failure to attract new advertisers, loss of current
advertisers, or a reduction in budget allocations could adversely affect our ARPU and
advertising revenue estimates. In addition, Snap is still in the early stages of rolling out its
API and Self-Serve sales channels, so there is an inherent degree of execution risk as well
as potential for advertiser pushback to buying through those channels, although we
believe the latter is of low probability, as most advertisers are familiar buying inventory that
way for other platforms.
Failure to Reach Target Daily Active Users in North America, Europe, LatAm, and
Other Regions: Our current estimates assume a country-by-country penetration rate,
which, in the long run for the North American and Western Europe markets, is relatively
consistent with Snap's current penetration rate in Norway of ~50%, and failure to achieve
that level of penetration in other markets either because of different competitive dynamics
or other factors would adversely affect our estimates.
Reliance on Third Parties for Infrastructure and Computing Services: Snap relies on
Google Cloud and recently added Amazon Web Services for the vast majority of its
computing, storage, bandwidth, and other services. Potential price hikes or modifications
of the contract terms could affect our estimates.
Management
Evan Spiegel, Co-Founder, Chief Executive Officer, and Director
Snap was founded by Evan Spiegel and Robert Murphy in 2010, and Mr. Spiegel has
served as the chief executive officer and member of the board of directors since the
company was incorporated in 2012. He is responsible for the overall strategic direction
and operations.
Basic EPS to Common ($3.07) ($0.21) ($0.17) ($0.16) ($0.17) ($0.16) ($0.11) ($0.08)
Basic Shares Outstanding 756.0 1172.6 1175.5 1178.5 1181.4 1184.4 1187.3 1190.3
Diluted EPS ($2.35) ($0.18) ($0.14) ($0.13) ($0.14) ($0.13) ($0.09) ($0.06)
Shares Outstanding 987.5 1422.3 1425.2 1428.2 1431.1 1434.1 1437.0 1440.0
EBITDA Reconciliation
Operating Income (103.8) (115.9) (131.0) (169.7) (2323.0) (255.9) (208.7) (188.5) (206.4) (187.3) (135.5) (94.4)
Stock-Based Compensation 5.5 4.7 14.8 6.8 2060.0 7.7 12.2 15.3 14.0 15.8 20.1 24.6
Pro Forma Operating Income (98.3) (111.1) (116.2) (163.0) (263.0) (248.3) (196.5) (173.2) (192.4) (171.5) (115.4) (69.8)
Depreciation and Amortization 5.0 6.0 7.4 10.6 11.8 11.7 12.2 13.0 13.3 13.9 14.6 15.1
Adjusted EBITDA (93.2) (105.1) (108.7) (152.3) (251.2) (236.5) (184.4) (160.2) (179.1) (157.6) (100.8) (54.7)
Pro Forma Net Income (99.0) (111.2) (109.4) (163.2) (262.1) (244.3) (192.9) (169.9) (189.4) (168.7) (112.8) (67.5)
Adjusted EPS - Diluted ($0.35) ($0.21) ($0.16) ($0.14) ($0.16) ($0.14) ($0.10) ($0.06)
Y/Y % Change
Total Revenue 889.7% 1254.7% 666.5% 406.4% 286.3% 166.9% 138.0% 131.3% 148.7% 119.5% 76.0% 70.9%
Cost of Revenue 265.2% 133.4% 127.3% 136.8% 185.6% 94.1% 71.7% 63.1% 12.8% 41.4% 32.4% 29.4%
Gross Profit 119.7% -35.0% -101.1% -138.5% 80.0% -133.8% 20121.7% 979.7% -293.3% 1971.3% 187.3% 149.0%
Product Development 69.4% 108.9% 187.3% 121.0% 4606.3% 162.8% 102.6% 83.1% -91.1% 25.9% 24.6% 26.8%
Marketing and Sales 326.8% 318.7% 322.3% 420.3% 2194.2% 244.2% 170.8% 100.0% -69.4% 34.7% 34.5% 50.2%
General and Administrative -61.3% 9.8% 39.6% 146.9% 2382.3% 161.3% 113.6% 52.9% -80.8% 36.1% 30.9% 21.4%
Reported Income from Operations -5.0% -31.9% -35.2% -72.9% -2137.5% -120.9% -59.4% -11.1% 91.1% 26.8% 35.1% 49.9%
Net Income -6.0% -45.2% -28.5% -73.8% -2120.5% -117.4% -65.1% -9.0% 91.2% 26.8% 35.2% 50.3%
Adjusted EBITDA -112.0% -34.9% -29.3% -75.2% -169.5% -125.0% -69.5% -5.2% 28.7% 33.4% 45.3% 65.8%
Pro Forma Net Income to Common -110.9% -50.6% -24.4% -80.0% -164.7% -119.8% -76.3% -4.1% 27.7% 30.9% 41.5% 60.3%
Margins
Gross Margin -95.3% -32.0% 0.3% 7.4% -44.4% 4.0% 28.1% 34.7% 34.5% 38.2% 45.9% 50.6%
GAAP Operating Margin -267.6% -161.4% -102.2% -102.4% -1549.9% -133.5% -68.4% -49.2% -55.4% -44.5% -25.2% -14.4%
Pro Forma Operating Margin -253.3% -154.8% -90.6% -98.4% -175.5% -129.5% -64.4% -45.2% -51.6% -40.8% -21.5% -10.7%
Adjusted EBITDA Margin -240.3% -146.4% -84.8% -91.9% -167.6% -123.4% -60.4% -41.8% -48.1% -37.5% -18.8% -8.4%
Net Income Margin -269.5% -161.4% -96.9% -102.6% -1549.3% -131.5% -67.2% -48.3% -54.6% -43.9% -24.8% -14.1%
Adjusted Net Income Margin -255.3% -154.8% -85.4% -98.5% -174.9% -127.5% -63.2% -44.3% -50.8% -40.1% -21.0% -10.3%
Basic EPS to Common ($0.51) ($0.64) ($2.77) ($0.52) ($0.18) $0.35 $1.07 $1.87
Basic Shares Outstanding 0.0 0.0 1070.7 1185.9 1197.8 1209.8 1221.9 1234.2 2.9%
Diluted EPS ($0.51) ($0.64) ($2.25) ($0.43) ($0.15) $0.29 $0.89 $1.55
Diluted Shares Outstanding 0.0 0.0 1315.8 1435.5 1447.4 1459.5 1471.6 1483.9 2.4%
EBITDA Reconciliation
GAAP Operating Income (381.7) (520.4) (2976.2) (623.5) (222.3) 421.5 1299.3 2282.2
Stock-Based Compensation 73.5 31.8 2095.2 74.5 111.1 150.6 189.8 221.8
Pro Forma Operating Income (308.2) (488.5) (881.0) (549.0) (111.2) 572.1 1489.1 2504.0
Depreciation and Amortization 15.3 29.1 48.7 56.8 68.2 61.8 77.0 93.6 14.0%
Adjusted EBITDA (292.9) (459.4) (832.3) (492.2) (43.0) 633.9 1566.1 2597.5
Pro Forma Net Income (299.4) (482.8) (869.2) (538.5) (103.5) 579.6 1500.5 2524.3
Adjusted EPS - Diluted ($0.53) ($0.81) ($0.45) ($0.09) $0.40 $1.02 $1.70
Y/Y % Change
Total Revenue 1366.6% 589.5% 154.6% 92.8% 59.9% 46.0% 36.5% 27.5%
Cost of Revenue 237.7% 147.7% 92.6% 28.5% 27.2% 24.0% 20.0% 16.1%
Gross Profit 147.4% -61.9% -439.3% 441.7% 102.2% 63.7% 46.6% 33.2%
Product Development 123.4% 796.5% -68.1% 34.7% 28.8% 22.4% 17.2%
Marketing and Sales 357.0% 396.4% -19.8% 41.0% 26.1% 20.7% 15.0%
General and Administrative 11.1% 428.2% -46.1% 21.2% 15.3% 11.2% 8.5%
Reported Income from Operations -319.5% -36.3% -471.9% 79.1% 64.3% 289.6% 208.2% 75.7%
Net Income -38.0% -476.0% 79.3% 65.0% 299.9% 205.6% 75.7%
Adjusted EBITDA -221.9% -56.9% -81.2% 40.9% 91.3% 1572.8% 147.1% 65.9%
Pro Forma Net Income to Common -61.3% -80.0% 38.0% 80.8% 660.2% 158.9% 68.2%
Margins
Gross Margin -210.8% -11.7% 15.5% 43.7% 55.2% 61.9% 66.5% 69.5%
GAAP Operating Margin -650.7% -128.7% -289.0% -31.4% -7.0% 9.1% 20.5% 28.3%
Pro Forma Operating Margin -525.4% -120.8% -85.5% -27.7% -3.5% 12.3% 23.5% 31.0%
Adjusted EBITDA Margin -499.3% -113.6% -80.8% -24.8% -1.4% 13.7% 24.8% 32.2%
Net Income Margin -635.7% -127.2% -287.8% -30.9% -6.8% 9.3% 20.7% 28.6%
Adjusted Net Income Margin -510.3% -119.4% -84.4% -27.1% -3.3% 12.5% 23.7% 31.3%
Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates.
Accounts Receivable (41.9) (118.4) (195.3) (217.9) (267.7) (309.9) (307.3) (253.9)
Prepaid Expenses and Other Assets (6.6) (20.5) (23.1) (23.6) (24.7) (24.3) (23.5) (19.6)
Other Assets (4.5) (5.1) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Accounts Payable (6.7) 6.5 42.1 15.7 49.7 62.5 53.4 53.5
Accrued Expenses and Other Current Liabilities 40.0 (19.7) 54.3 49.4 58.9 69.2 69.8 62.9
Other Liabilities 4.2 6.8 17.8 12.8 24.6 24.7 22.9 19.0
Net Cash from Operating Activities (306.6) (611.2) (924.9) (645.2) (194.4) 463.6 1392.9 2479.8
Net Increase (Decrease) in Cash 242.8 (490.7) 1644.4 (725.9) (287.9) 358.4 1280.9 2359.2
Cash - Beginning of Period 398.0 640.8 150.1 1794.5 1068.6 780.6 1139.0 2419.9
Cash - End of Period 640.8 150.1 1794.5 1068.6 780.6 1139.0 2419.9 4779.1
Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates.
Property and Equipment, Net 44.1 100.6 153.8 200.7 247.9 292.6 328.7 356.8
Intangible Assets, Net 43.2 76.0 50.1 27.0 5.2 3.9 2.9 1.8
Goodwill 133.9 319.1 319.1 319.1 319.1 319.1 319.1 319.1
Other Assets 25.1 47.1 47.1 47.1 47.1 47.1 47.1 47.1
Total Assets 938.9 1722.8 3613.0 3152.3 3182.1 3918.1 5564.7 8224.4
Current Liabilities:
Accounts Payable 0.7 8.4 50.5 66.2 115.8 178.3 231.8 285.3
Accrued Expenses and Other Current Liabilities 155.6 335.5 389.8 439.2 498.1 567.3 637.2 700.1
Total Current Liabilities 156.3 343.9 440.3 505.4 614.0 745.7 868.9 985.4
Other Liabilities 18.5 47.1 64.9 77.7 102.3 127.0 150.0 168.9
Total Liabilities 174.8 391.1 505.2 583.0 716.3 872.7 1018.9 1154.3
Convertible Preferred and Common Stock 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Additional Paid-in Capital 1467.4 3639.6 8380.1 8454.5 8565.7 8716.3 8906.1 9127.8
Retained Earnings (693.2) (2305.9) (5270.3) (5883.2) (6097.8) (5668.9) (4358.2) (2055.7)
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Income 0.0 (2.1) (2.1) (2.1) (2.1) (2.1) (2.1) (2.1)
Total Stockholder's Equity 764.1 1331.7 3107.8 2569.3 2465.8 3045.4 4545.8 7070.1
Total Liabilities and Stockholder's Equity 938.9 1722.8 3613.0 3152.3 3182.1 3918.1 5564.7 8224.4
Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates.
PEERS
Figure 37 shows Snap's positioning vis-à-vis the Credit Suisse PEERS construct, which
lists its competitors, suppliers, and customers.
Disclosure Appendix
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3-Year Price and Rating History for Kakao Corp (035720.KQ)
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