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—— Studies in European History —~ JEM PHOM 35414 aU} Jo YeaugnO ay, uosuaneys piaeq 3 THE OUTBREAK OF THE FIRST WORLD WAR 1914 IN PERSPECTIVE David Stevenson THE OUTBREAK OF THE FIRST WORLD WAR Studies in European History General Editor: Richard Overy Editorial Consultants: John Breuilly Roy Porter PUBLISHED TITLES Jerenyy Black A Military Revolution? Military Change and European Society, 1550-1800 T. C. W. Blanning "The French Revolution: Aristocrats versus Bourgeois? John Breuilly The Formation of the First German Nation-State, 1800-1871 Peter Burke ‘The Renaissance, Second Edition Michael Dochrill The Cold War, 1945-1963 William Doyle The Ancien Regime Geoffrey Ellis. The Napoleonic Empire Donald A. Filter The Khrushchev Era: De-Stalinism and the Limits of Reform in the USSR, 1953-1964 Mary Fulbrook ~The Two Germanies, 1945-1990 R.G. Geary European Labour Politics from 1900 to the Depression Graeme Gill Stalin m John Henry The Scientific Revolution and the Origins of Modern Science Henry Kamen Golden Age Spain Richard Mackenney The City-State, 1500-1700: Republican Liberty in an Age of Princely Power Andrew Porter European Imperialism, 1860-1914 Roy Porter The Enlightenment Roger Price The Revolutions of 1848 James Retallack Germany in the Age of Kaiser Wilhelm II Geoffrey Scarre Witchcraft and Magic in 16th- and 17th-Century Europe R.W. Scribner The German Reformation Robert Service The Russian Revolution 1900-1927, Second Edition David Stevenson The Outbreak of the First World War FORTHCOMING. David Cesarani_ The Holocaust Hugh Gough The Terror of the French Revolution Clive Trebilcock Problems in European Industrialisation, 1800-1914 THE OUTBREAK OF THE FIRST WORLD WAR 1914 in Perspective DAVID STEVENSON Senior Lecturer in International History London School of Economics FA Sixes Nass PA Si Sieises mtessiwes ‘BetCrge eter ‘gerne tgsi ynninanaen restate ne Contents 1 eo ef dione ‘romain se Seorea eres Be¥ eee ae Editor's Preface Abbreviations st te tke Secon int ya a ‘arth ance ce Te we eae ‘dcx maj repton ance neon 398 yovey ve ise rer eee eee Ee egy ip (CGT Conldéraon gerade du vail French wadeunion Chronology Jann German Emp proche Ju Teeny et Ease Ist JmeTvee aie, ts sn Te Alan is i toot Sener hn emes n teers Rms a ‘Snr Niner Foi iin and rane) ‘fue gue Ree Cantrence Je: Corman Sal Le feet aeons ees Freee tone mel reece a etn on eka Aye Ange French cool german nt a. tan ody Sunda mare mate evoaonary Juss Age ety os bin ‘nan Api igen Comerene om Marc ary Ns Dasara seater Sect Hague Pe Caner, Ae om ms a ea hu Nincnber Sond Moron Gl puter al caer 2) hia War Neca Josep Peet Ciel Reekrwion ej Second Balkan War (Baga Sei, i Noge Ra ‘Cera Arey Le a 1914 January: Franco-Ru: ian railway loan agreement. March: German-Russian press war. June: Anglo-Russian naval discussions. 28 June: Sarajevo assassinations 6 July: German ‘blank cheque’ to Austria-Hungary. Russian ‘Great Programme’ becomes law. } July: French state visit to Russia. 28 July: Austro-Hungarian ultimatum to Serbii 25 July: Serbian reply and mobilisation. Austria-Hungary breaks off relations. 26 July: Russia begins pre-mobi conference proposal 28 July: Austria-Hungary orders partial mobilisation and declares war on Serbia. Wilhelm II proposes halt in Belgrade. 29 July: Bombardment of Belgrade. German warnings to Russia and France, British warning to Germany. German neutrality bid. Nicholas II authorises partial mobilis tion. 30 July: Bethmann Hollweg attempts to restrain Austria-Hungary. 30 July: French attempt to restrain Russia. Nicholas I authorises general mobilisation. 31 July: Russia begins general mobilisation. Germany declares state of danger of war and sends ultimata to Russia and France. 1 August: Germany declares war on Russia. French and German general mobilisations, Anglo-German ‘mi: understanding’. 2 August: Germany invades Luxemburg and sends ultima- tum to Belgium. British Cabinet decides to protect French coast and Belgian neutra 3 August: Germany invades Belgium and declares war on France. Italy proclaims neutrality. 4 August: Britain declares war on Germany. 6 August: Austria-Hungary declares war on Russia, sation measures. British y. xii mex 8 Belgium D Denmark L Luxembourg M N Sw Atlantic Ocean PORTUGAL of eMaana Lisbon , SPAIN Algeciras MOROCCO (France) | 2 BRITAIN en Mediterranean Sea ALGERIA (France) Chivistiania North Sea ae ZTunisia trance here. Vienna AUSTRIA-HUNGARY sie | roar Genstantinople "st Petersburg oY Black Sea OTTOMAN EMPIRE Map 1 Europe in 1914 Budapest AUSTRIA-HUNGARY Croatia ao ae ROMANIA Bucharest @ Bosnia (Belgrade arajevoe oC HERZEGOVINA = Black Sea Bosphorus oe ea OTTOMAN ° EMPIRE ITALY oe Dardanelles Mediterranean Sea 4 ° Map 2. The Balkans in 1914 xiv Introduction ‘As this study was being written, images of Sarajevo flickered nightly across Western television screens, and commentators recalled that events there cighty years ago had started a world war. Although global politics in the 1990s have so far been less per- ilous than in the early twentieth century, with the break-up of the familiar framework provided by the Soviet-American Gold Wat they may not remain so, The most likely future is one of a return to a world of several competing Great Powers, manoeuvring in a hazardous environment of ethnic conflict, rivalry for markets and resources, and armaments races. If this happens, it will be more relevant than ever to examine why the pre-1914 Balkan tension so disastrously escalated. What follows aims to introduce the student and the general reader to the vast historical literature on the origins of the First World War. It deliberately avoids a narrative account, which can casily be found elsewhere [9; 25; 27], although the principal events appear in the Chronology. The first four chapters focus on the July Crisis of 1914, examining the contribution made to it by each government, though setting the decision-making within a longer-term context. The fifth chapter is more general and inter- pretative. The Conclusion looks ahead to the decisions taken after the war broke out, which turned it into a long and devastating total conflict. 's 1 Austria-Hungary and Serbia ‘veal Rots repre ‘le nS confi we igre bythe mane af the tbe here 23 uy the gover lenidpertiooes aca ‘ce in la athe hen tam he foie. Te ‘When Pat emet fhe operant at igh son (11) ‘ono hau he Serban wh ics he thee repr on Rasalan aie they ere read wo gh abe Sofueeuietgeesieee ban Sentosa oreient oat ‘ek Srbar ao tect raga opt ete teh ents ee eee ‘ret poe ng he eee jot ‘Sermry ert ws no conaent pac arp (0871). eto te Genera sa (8) wt sepa fr war Flos age ih, bt ere sn nnn eee Frowhe sonra June 1014 she Fae May fet an coeston pa nae "on pat Cott Hap wast tay ‘Granth ees chet an nas pa sre banc oeepacatietascguaapeoenes ie arman ae st er m tue won wear ye fe tha ue ‘yw uc ayn oo Nee in th dre rds 68) {er At Ta nner ocret peciton pms ped sc a 2 Germany and the Blank Cheque “Corman, oul athe aly, wo wd to se On Bas rs many it it Ws ar, rgd eo Gf {atdg he Br wl (1), teem eh gio SMA pecs nth nad conoid iy Sig eli Ce ete oughta “Tamme of Foch pial were opel conten domes ee o ‘rat nc eh ay {he petra eaten peer Pet de Atomic nt rey pony sense (eee ita punt eel jets (107. Charterite scp 1, Facer ay ave Sistecar a ana cc Witeefene i ket ce ae Poche Nor sa nth ran he hp Set ppm GI Wenig a pra pee toe oman Mar Coupe a6 8 Decembee TOI comedy Sirota yo Sh np en nh per Vise the ih ew ceed tie red XinSSd mater eghen monn Tw Hees Seige sient ets eat eo sce open beer ‘mow cgi wae ce ches ag et tt en ei her ha ah ‘Sonat Geman mie general (19) The ert 9 ‘heyaly Cast he hae book, Rowe, as wo he fer hr hghige the peta othe tone slag, ants approval wae needed Yor lg ad ii na ep wi a is SSieieeuasars ah eesleemeneos eae ‘Sekar ie monary penis 100 hapa tad open oa yun the own Ae in ‘me NS rn ‘in 1906 a oe eee nce eae ‘aie Tike Sol De tig Sein a ic sire ncaa {3.1 nding ing mre inorder to gi 8 ne 11% wel ent soca opt =u sp Tce nn ces ha de Toni By ihe tes Batre bree Chemecor 2 1900 che Ca Mchigen pte foreign plier ‘and sane 10 ch 10) te deceit Ben, ‘Szanin ncagpig ay n Cones Tinta bt en geome ne House Carmen a Spl wre a ight a irom hoop cies he ‘Notcean ac at rin 81 he ech sy pete 3 Foe it mv ary tat tected hat ekprnon onl see rein a0) Frthermore the ke wanna ey ‘top mera re ihe enn. area Jar 191 oon i a aly bay he Chott ect 4 bar a I he prj Sanern rte exponen Cerone ented proportion of unre sin yo ove Mae Fert ti ot omg hs ery al pn ‘ke in a enh ng ee isin oe (17 i asco pan nant med {1908 and 1912-15, he Turki Sra US ¥LAgoe ans vrei she St pec oli {tem month ie (18s Proteome ‘ter of 914 [ac 2 The chal ocomenaon (eich, fiteah evi besten caadeecetopreediod the wien the Kel Cal seh hm Dome the Neth andl Se) ate a we Site in Jane 1914. Bt the Nay Sal egnded Germanys (Seen al cempentacerreeLTF es m0) “Sipe ne fretent ans (18). nearane ( titesing epecenons an gen 199. Wc seed te iain isbn on 3 a ‘eouin loaned ha Ra md hee ge tov, He epee the a pou wth samen ma: pe Ma's ee comer wih fg a et hat Seta ths enchants ey ea, Kr le (10, 12 27-15. Tey come ea that the oy 14 ses ilo ‘ot ania er ee Serbs ns pate he ari her l y ‘ete Foregn Minty tthe ne [10 1 190th ae sh ch rte ss ahr an a po part entra hace rman othe erin eee eerie 3 Russo-French Response Seles! er cpitas es Wriapeal werraineavas Miner on 2 Jl o's Cron Come cae Tar obits freparins woud go Seay as oh ie Nn ‘2 ay a ae ho the Te Gah a an he doy of the tui or dca swe he Eater ton as ing etal pounce the takes i comidre bj were orerment jd psec (19:4), Werther ‘poner The Risa Foreign Mie, Serge Soy tl is Inia ean Shs ae ss they began ibn of he Ja seta he rete a sigalg a htnton to ig tn November 1912 or snd, Garemkin, ant Saran wa ceasing ached to on ee ‘Som ety ieigence son etd them [1], a on Say Bema ware they oma Germany ol {po she aero fy Sonor no im ound ‘Swisermen othe deat ec ees pa sri (8, There are argument fr ing sha ey Jug et it rpg othe rt Corman could Ie [ou 08, 10,18), mec she new and Inge Tope wn nc et Ringe epee sin ‘Comyn n hep he eo tema eng (Sin geterlecanc, Remeron ou eter le ‘tua Ser etd’ Bedmas wan 2 Jay ees ha ‘ee bre fran the soning he Conn Miers tmavwdabe [ech 11551. oe he no pg eee ee teat ere eae eerie tas, ite ecg ti (Bisa Tis ee no in ifence of emt’ pre Sewer rea the french one w emporary eae, he tn bars Seaire ns Seed dap toes fied wo, ballon me eyo ne al Sure, Dung Fee abd Vivant snenee an iin Rt ine Cy ie Plog tl Son efor he Jy Cac of Maes We atane’ Seo itu os cming, Pag Whe he French ely, wae “tured yg Rss hig gi tu em pee a ea tah ere apy ting the ead rch pe hee ei an eae ec handed he He fine fol stoned synthe Lt Ae tees mh Serban nope op Ras hing rd 1 es mare apt froma ce finer precedent for 914005) Tr i i Sa npn ny he Cen (Shor he a ote teat ‘aceon 100 ot general race Me ds a ere [Potent aborcurs inthe wealed "non (Cara The a ‘Son fhe ni ee Jon res ey oe naif bpd athe GT tothe ar ero i of as he a dt ining eo ‘ct ye mr ae 4 Towards World War "aeons ee ecb at Base fe polaaton ui the Kugurion ot “Concio ioe ed tao a da, ttle eae ‘So kn elses scare Sa i i nia ees ata {he 2h, however, he to changed ack, ig Atte ungory face arom hee {Rs colnaiorot hn ht [msi 8 ti Ma he en pr ‘ikea cre fre an none 9 Toe ede eon (Geer tte aed va tae econ satke fap oT rig rego 8 Tap re ed he oie Ute Aayiram oc eng nk snc iin ei ie cet i hn paced an ‘yin Sig ray (et ‘Canctlor ate wie opt hi ipa machin ‘ne yu) Tike eins and Vivian's appeal to Rasa 39 Ju eden aaa tae ‘in unt Rin nd ig Caracy wo de Hew ft ‘Cnr ad leat Degas’ thm exe sar io hough be may han had Wich spre fo ae te tree for Berl tare Henan» peat are Rohs rey arn Beto any dee otis nd he We Mac Ech won Paleo, Treats Bement ihe chet cee ‘Siete an cay the SD 81 ‘ids inc a enn ‘he eri had go oto contr an hte gonna ‘nied wi Gena ha nn ne ce eh ‘hese ie Man woul he some oper “une aber mia es pe Farge cromcdAlogh here mere tops conf on eS een ec dl ha ot ‘Sua he Caner tn jumped sep a Gey rene mse theiet pertions go ae hi inet seein ry Mae, hey evi seme se ster ce veins pratt folic anon 3 jy Wiel nd ha Rosia se i in ns Cl Ec iene oc onan eon led ‘in ce 3). Tex nai he in are the ee one eof what mane the ly Cr wan sng ‘omer mane The dccnnaing J wor increment ed ete Sn etn Sate whan ther problems though il wang to Be Sete om Orion guenp sec ea sec may eh ‘ge yee expen that al mit sn there [1 2 thse mish eo is mi es nie the Bata Fxpedidonay Farce (HEP tbe Sp {are i ie ohare ope Gt nth ge cai errs arya hey cou ke te nto mn Ellie mami ep the ay redone tbe Meticrcan Tol, fag te Seer at ie ing el he om paseo he ei he ber Goverment a reg Oc” Aer Jl homer the Cabs wan ne {nd nerseptonc Libr sch ae ran sp insert prove their career The mo pe fader ra sr ai ome - cami se cay ‘Thame etary, oie the conta hae Por te ‘at neti nether Im sen eases gens econ of and King Alb svi Sc Ys amg Sptoy ns Seen canoe poe sone ‘rote Angi on $4 Jahy Man France ead hee ee sorties CConat Power ane [He hesitate tc ‘Sonor ane ajo decarton ppt cin vi hos eenarse the ipso fo nee tins a mi ee Sa edo eed wlmccntey a tepear os ‘og omalnng Germany ler fecane' ppiementary ‘Some eran ‘i ert we ‘stance wren i On ju aronr ened at tor Alot ch iy might a eve 2h apart om Bria’ vec et aay wh ree sd Ra inthe Gv ae we en th he ‘on a ie ese (2 90. The fra ei tan ‘he emp se ohne pment ut ‘en ft he hid fn. a ‘ere Caan tt am Hh ert “eoniy preeminence as fang (1). Hamever Bet ma rps ern col pene al a th popion tt eee tea ca eae ‘asc pg ey Conca nti ‘spt the ae the mal rene te eee ‘hnrceatne oe {Coninen [2 pp M3). The ete nih the prvi ‘courier ce ee an (Secret popes tp he mio bp eer 7 “qemu estan tapos) stontse tind erartinaaa pice eee ne Sec im rn a be as ‘er the shareer dnp to Brith sping, Gera os tu merevlnrabl Hct ie he er Pomc he sin ether a a a 5 The Search for Understanding ‘rte seaweed we the bs Sos peti Mine wate precede Sioanaa Gana Seca ee gyre aa ura atin eo of npr) Say catmeerecnay a elt reas cepa pam nt Helga x ate bra then fo Rel My mad at Se he Artesian mt no Mas ‘oe tn no 0 Soot ont citesveagarat da tf oer ai paciaac eonteetane einen eileen Die feces cel eree ete ct to Peter to dee wether the hing tsi Sayre ‘Senay he hl oe ron, aon he we Sostescaeo ee Reet ame a tr ae ht i igh the rhe ey a [feed nae ncrng wwe sey See henner ‘eG ged mach dy ghee pe ei oe at (fer (2h 9), The sapdrenen of domes saton de face plc mere ty Coan et ad ‘ar corcton were intended on appt for the Fides ay (rat heen aed eed Seems aro Fuser a me (Bat ese etl one hh oe ied oe sus kann Teo ere i are Mary Fer arm, psd at wari ed {hort 8p 7720 he anetlogaon eon aay {heir empire: but they expected the precipitant a be ivan i oF ap he ae ‘Premise ul i On he ona ter oie mt nr nasa {tough some elle for war usu sav domes conoligason, ‘ania and mee payee ren Lat bs opicio si ans nb oe st cont andedeeaps wean Eat (a ENa cn ge en par Ses ng ch The ene pot 5] Fier and Hae Gate have sow hat once Seedpeer teeter aa Maier Rabenes [eB n race aging he wpe had [3 4, Wa ow wore etn nd alo Se ‘toe [0 Aiton ranged Pin dosed the General Sa and veg Mini or ‘See mee 18 Fh aay ewe th ioe ch py, nh en, emi heen ean he bem mg maw wo tao fo ‘one een ge Co ens Norman Crs Agen in Tt the lan Wr (anda 2-1) cectine’ ocr’ To (18 Yl Atalay at ‘ijeaeusee psoas ccets Eanemnags inter ahon et she reno af he Cancer as silane tne 3 ‘eras Xen Baan wat con dive 4 ee even sien pd ge aralghawa. Een wo showed atte fh i he sage fey of he esheets toed Cama raat angry ate wtic re str sin py nk ne tikto prepare chest} nn nen lover Banc een Aro tng needs eas ihe nee Ld feck Botan Pe bites Fi, and oh eee tae ranean Rua mee ‘hint are es ad acl tw ope ay Seeccn aoeramih acctincs wesc Should srengthen devertenc, i wther ae sce the possi ng hace af i nth ated wo ta Wis Ne Wned rte beadewn af place 32 allie depen ly ny he aan ca he repemed dplmatcetey espe ren Agate emer ner cere mand defence reed a er he ae ‘oundajis to coincide wih ethnic ones os the fundamental ‘Sone af he wo (21 The poem whine et the Ecipean enn Move agit ay ae be aan thd ea oes acy Rtn an he ‘arGerman League andthe Drache Weireren ihe Geen Wn Ai, rnd 20 ly thie Facer a dite dome ste tron {42 Ir ts piety vse ext ‘ace an derstanding in 10-11 ore Pes 10 33). and statis of Aled vr sins have demon ated [24 1 ‘thin (hough thie plea part) than io rom ‘eight pen aig ‘ternal deopnens diced ave bes expan the nt ee hay was eso td hing (na he sums oe eh ar i i pel whe Ce wna ‘ence Come “cute ne ear estes cer conmiteen to tas [cs Amer Om Seon ote ti Lr] Ms Eh hat sac mere avec comers oes i (17-A tied noting sont ao, dd Ra th Aah Ren ant a retling mpm above Ges Pmer sence he Conclusion: The Vision of ‘St tg cath dcp ane heen heed dri br ee ror inthe orig =p heme robe cig ie ah ach eer the rate poi Seqes Pb aay oc Thongs cathe lsd do Pain mo 0. he Iter eee no pai ne ey ‘Seton oe Gar 52 a he Ce gyn of eve mer, tone

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