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Securities Valuation and Hybrid Financing PDF
Securities Valuation and Hybrid Financing PDF
2013
JRM
CONTENT CAPSULE:
□ Debt financing
□ Equity financing
□ Hybrid financing: Preference shares, leasing, options, warrants, and convertibles
Introduction
Based on the module on financial forecasting, in order to support an increase in assets, we can either resort to internal
financing or external financing. Let us look once more at the formula which we adapted to compute how much more a
company must raise by issuing debt or new stocks for any increase in assets or investments.
EFN = Assets x ΔSales (P) - Spontaneous Liabilities x ΔSales (P) - PM x Projected Sales x (1- d)
Sales Sales
Projected Increase in Assets Projected Increase in Spontaneous Liabilities Projected Net Income multiplied by
Retention Ratio
Where:
ΔSales (P) = Projected Change in Sales (Peso value)
Spontaneous Liabilities = Liabilities that naturally move up and down with sales
PM = Profit Margin
d = Dividend Payout ratio
In this module, the increase in assets will be deemed a response to a proposal to invest and not only a change to support
operation demands. At the same time, the focus will be on external financing and hybrid financing.
Off-
Balance
ASSETS LIABILITIES CAPITAL
Sheet
Financing
CURRENT LONG-TERM RETAINED ORDINARY PREFERENCE
ASSETS
LIABILITIES LIABILITIES EARNINGS SHARES SHARES
INCREASE
Dependent
in ASSETS
Proportionate on
(supported
to Sales Retention
by
Ratio
operations)
INCREASE Issuances of Issuances of new
in ASSETS Straight debt ordinary shares
(supported securities
by external
financing)
Issuances of:
Issuances of: APIC - Preference
INCREASE
changes:
in ASSETS - Convertibles
Warrants
Shares
(supported - With Outstanding, - Convertibles Leasing
by hybrid
financing)
Warrants Conversion - With
Privileges Warrants
Debt financing
Valuation of Bonds
The value of the bond is simply the present value of all the security’s future cash flows, as shown below:
Present Value of future cash flows related to bonds = Coupon1 + Coupon2 + …+ Couponn + Face Value
(or Current Bond Issue Price) (1+YTM)1 (1+YTM)2 (1+YTM)n
Effective Rate = Approximate = YTM’ = Interest Payment + (Par Value – Net Price)
YTM Number of Years to Maturity
(Net Price x 0.60) + (Par Value x 0.40)
In various stages of business growth, checkout the types of the most appropriate dividends per stage :
Type of Dividends Distributed
Three Basic Types of Dividend
Stage I Development No dividends
Policies: (1) constant pay-out (2)
Stage II Growth Stock dividends, low cash dividends
regular dividend (3) low regular-
Stage III Expansion Stock dividends, low to moderate cash dividends, stock splits
Stage IV Maturity Moderate to high cash dividends and-extra.
Aside from the availability of funds and stability of income generation, other factors affecting dividend policy are as
follows:
1. Legal Rules 4. Desire for Control
2. Cash Position of the Firm 5. Tax Position of Shareholders
3. Access to Capital Markets
Present Value of future cash flows related to stocks = Dividends1 + Dividends 2 + …+ Dividends n + Selling Price n
(or Current Stock Issue Price) (1+ks)1 (1+ks)2 (1+ks)n
However this model can readily be used only in pricing single growth rate or one-stage growth stocks. The situation is: not
all common stocks grow perpetually at the same rate. Common stock dividends can actually vary. With non-constant
growth stocks, additional steps will have to be done before the DCF model above can be applied as is.
Last year, Firm A paid P4.00 in annual dividends. This year, a ten percent increase is expected. What if there is an expected
return from common shares in the amount of 12%, and that the dividends are expected to grow by 10% per year for the next
two years, after which the dividends shall move steadily at 5%, at how much should the stocks be sold initially this year?
Using a time line, let us plot how the events are expected to occur:
g = 10% g = 10% g = 5% g = 5% g = 5% ……….
Year 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
D0 = 4.40
CRC-ACE: Securities Valuation and Hybrid Financing page 3
In order to determine the price of the stocks at Year 0, we are to predict the Present Value of the future cash flows, using
the dividend growth model. (i.e. ks = D1/P0 + g). However, the “g” in this model is “constant”, so what we have to do is
measure the present value of its future cash flows one period at a time until it becomes constant, only then can we use the
DGM conveniently.
Step 1: Compute for the EXPECTED DIVIDENDS, using the expected growth rates
g = 10% g = 10% g = 5% g = 5% g = 5% ……….
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
D0 = 4.40 D1 = 4.84 D2 = 5.32 D3 = 5.59 D4 = 5.87 D5 = 6.16 D6 = 6.47
Step 2: Identify the HORIZON DATE.
The horizon date is the date when the dividend starts to grow at a constant growth rate. In this case, the ‘horizon date’ is…
g = 10% g = 10% g = 5% g = 5% g = 5% ……….
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
D0 = 4.40 D1 = 4.84 D2 = 5.32 D3 = 5.59 D4 = 5.87 D5 = 6.16 D6 = 6.47
Step 3: Compute for the present values of the Future Cash flows, since this will approximate the value of the stock, which in
turn is used to establish its price. Use the ks as the discounting rate.
g = 10% g = 10% g = 5% g = 5% g = 5% ……….
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
D0 = 4.40 D1 = 4.84 D2 = 5.32 D3 = 5.59 D4 = 5.87 D5 = 6.16 D6 = 6.47
?
CF1=?
???? ????
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
D0 = 4.40 D1 = 4.84 D2 = 5.32 D3 = 5.59 D4 = 5.87 D5 = 6.16 D6 = 6.47
0.8929
CF1=4.32
???? ????
b. Expected Cash flow at horizon date (or simply, {Expected dividends at horizon date + price of the stocks at horizon
date}) The stock’s price at horizon date is equal to the expected future cash flows starting that day onwards.
g = 10% g = 10% g = 5% g = 5% g = 5% ……….
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
D0 = 4.40 D1 = 4.84 D2 = 5.32 D3 = 5.59 D4 = 5.87 D5 = 6.16 D6 = 6.47
0.8929
D1=4.32 Expected + Constant growth rate of 5%
P2 = ? Dividend
???? CF2 = ?
To substitute,
P2 = D2 + 1 = P 5.59 = P 79.86 Price at end of Year 2
0.12 -0.05 0.07
g = 10% g = 10% g = 5% g = 5% g = 5% ……….
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
D0 = 4.40 D1 = 4.84 D2 = 5.32 D3 = 5.59 D4 = 5.87 D5 = 6.16 D6 = 6.47
0.8929
CF1=4.32
P2 =79.86
CRC-ACE: Securities Valuation and Hybrid Financing page 4
CF2=67.91 0.7972
CF2 =85.18
Step 4: Compute for the PRICE OF THE STOCK at Year 0 by adding the present values of the Future Cash flows.
g = 10% g = 10% g = 5% g = 5% g = 5% ……….
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
D0 = 4.40 D1 = 4.84 D2 = 5.32 D3 = 5.59 D4 = 5.87 D5 = 6.16 D6 = 6.47
0.8929
CF1= 4.32
P2 =79.86
CF2= 67.91 0.7972
CF2 =85.18
CF2=72.23
Note to the Candidate: What if for example, the question is to compute for the price of the stocks at end of Year 1, instead
of Year 0, can you now compute for the stock’s price?(0.12(5.32/ (0.12-0.05)-0.05)) = P 76
Spread = [(Price to Public – Amount Paid to Issuing Firm) / Amount Paid to Issuing firm] x 100
= compensation to those who are participating in the distribution
Notes on Spreads
1. The lower a party falls in the distribution hierarchy, the lower the portion of the spread received.
2. Usually, the larger the pesos value of an issue, the smaller the spread.
3. The spread on equity issues is greater than on debt issues because of the greater price uncertainty.
CRC-ACE: Securities Valuation and Hybrid Financing page 5
Preference share
A comparison of ordinary stock and bond issuances to preferred shares:
Ordinary Stock Bonds Preference Shares1
Ownership and control of With voting rights and Limited rights in case of Limited rights when
the firm residual claim to income default dividends are
missed
Obligations to provide None Contractual obligations Must receive before
return ordinary
shareholders
Claim to assets in Lowest Highest claim After creditors
bankruptcy
Cost of distribution Highest Lowest Moderate
Risk-return trade off Highest risk, highest return Lowest risk, Lowest return Moderate risk,
Moderate return
Tax status of payment by Not deductible Tax- deductible Not deductible
issuing entity
Leasing
The process by which a firm can obtain the use of certain fixed assets for which it must make a series of contractual,
periodic, tax deductible payments.
Types of Leases
1. Capital Lease (or Financing Lease):
a. a purchase rather than a lease
b. firm actually buys the property
c. must be shown on a firm’s balance sheet
d. examples include: oil drilling equipment and airplanes
2. Operating Lease:
a. a conventional rental agreement
b. firm doesn’t expect to own property
a) is not shown on a firm’s balance sheet
b) examples include: automobiles and office equipment
Convertibles
A conversion feature is an option included as part of either a bond or preferred stocks issue and allows its holder to change
the security into a specific number of shares of common stocks.
Convertibles usually have a call feature of convertibles allowing issuers to retire or force conversion paying a call price to
holders usually lower by 10 to 15% than the conversion value of the security. Convertibles that cannot be forced into
conversion are known as “overhanging issue”.
Ideally, the cost of convertibles are lesser than that of straight equity, but higher than straight debt. (kd < kc < ke )
Valuation of convertibles
Naturally, convertibles can be sold higher than straight securities.
VPackage = VStraight security + VConversion
Conversion Price = Pc = Par value of convertible ÷ Number of shares received per conversion
= Pc = Par value of convertible ÷ Conversion Ratio (CR)
= Pc = usually higher than the price of the ordinary share in the convertible issuance date
1
Primary purchasers are corporate investors, insurance companies, and pension funds; Primary issuers are public utility
companies, acquiring firms, and firms experiencing losses.
CRC-ACE: Securities Valuation and Hybrid Financing page 6
Floor price = The floor value is the higher of the straight security value and the conversion value
= The floor value is the minimum price at which the convertible would be traded
Warrants
Warrant is an option of the holder to buy a stated number of shares of stock at a specified price over a given time period (a
long-term option to buy stock). The specified exercise price is typically set at 10% to 30% above the current stock price on
the issue date.
Although it appears that warrants “sweetens” a bond offering, it still has a cost (i.e. equal to the opportunity cost from
selling at a higher price than the exercise or striking price).
Uses of warrants:
1. Enhances a debt issue by allowing for the issuance of debt under difficult circumstances
2. May be included as an add-on in a merger or acquisition agreement
3. Can be issued in a corporate reorganization or bankruptcy to offer shareholders a chance to recover some of their
investment
4. Traditionally has been associated with speculative real estate companies, airlines, and conglomerates
Valuation of warrants
Naturally, securities with warrants can be sold higher than straight securities.
VPackage = VStraight debt + VWarrants
Where:
P0 = Current Market price of stock
E = Exercise price
N = Number of ordinary shares acquired with one warrant.
Options
Options provide the holder with an opportunity, but not the obligation, to purchase or sell a specified asset at a stated price
on or before a set expiration date. Three basic options are rights, warrants, and calls and puts.
Call option is an option to buy securities at a stated price on or before a set expiration date. Put option is an option to sell
securities at a stated price on or before a set expiration date. They are hybrid securities but they are not a source of fund for
the company. The presence of call and put options may stabilize the firm’s share price by increasing trading activity, but
one must understand, many factors affect share price in the market.
/jrm