U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE JouN T. CONNOR, Secretary WEATHER BUREAU Roser M, WHITE, Chief RESEARCH PAPER NO. 45 Meteorological Drought WAYNE C. PALMER Ofiice of Climatology U.S. Weather Bureau, Washington, D.C. WASHINGTON, D.C. FEBRUARY 1965 ‘or ane by the Superintendent of Dosumenty, U.S, Goverameat Priting Os, Washington, D.C 20H ~ Pree 4 ntsre FOREWORD Drought has been cited as a scourge of mankind since biblical times. It still is a major menace to world food supplies. Insect plagues, with which it ranks as a crop threat, can be fought by modern means. Drought remains an unconquered ill. Meteorological science has not yet. come to grips with drought. It has not even described the phenomenon adequately. ‘This is certainly the first step toward understanding. And then a long road remains ahead toward prediction and, perhaps, limited control. ‘This paper is an important step toward these goals. Tt presents a numerical approach to the problem and thus permits an objective evaluation of the climatological events. Although often so classified, drought is not just an agricultural problem. It affects the city dweller, whose water may be rationed, and the industrial consumers of water as well. In fact, water is one of the most vital natural resources. Its lack, regionally or temporally, has the most profound effect on economy. In a country as large as the United States drought is likely to affect only a part of its territory at any one time, However, no section is entirely spared of droughts and occasionally substantial areas are affected. By severity and duration these events can be calamitous not only locally but for the whole economic structure. Hence knowledge of the probability of their occurrence and their course is an essential element for planning. ‘The thorny problem of a rational land utilization is closely tied in with these considerations. ‘The pioneering work of the late C. W. Thornthwaite on potential evapotranspiration has underlain all modern attempts to assess the water balance. As in his work, the aim of the effort reported on in this paper remains primarily on the climatological aspects. ‘The new method presented here is directed at » quantitative assess- ment of periods of prolonged meterological anomalies. We hope it is a step forward and that it can be followed by similar analyses on a broader geographical basis, H. E. Lanpspere.CONTENTS 1, INTRODUCTION Definitions. Points of view-- Speculations concerning the definition. . THE PROBLEM AND OBJECTIVES. | DEVELOPMENTAL DATA USED. TECHNIQUES USED AND THEIR LIMITATIONS. PROCEDURE AND DISCUSSION... Hydrologic accounting. Potential values. Cooffieiont of evapotranspiration, a. Coefficient of recharge, 8 Coefficient of runoff, +. Coofficiont of loss, 8. CAFEC precipitation, P.. Precipitation excesses and deficiencies, “The climatic characteristic ‘The moisture anomaly index, 2 6, THE DURATION FACTOR. ‘The effect of time Drought eategories ‘The driest intervals Determining monthly increments of drought severity. 7. RE-EVALUATION OF THE WEIGHTING FACTOR. Evidence of unsatisfactory & values.. A procedure for estimating mean values of K Kas a function of other aspects of climate. Monthly weighting factors. Final adjustment of the monthly K values. END OF DROUGHT (OR WET SPELLS). ‘Changes in the severity index. Determining the end of a drought. Determining the end of a wet spell. 10, PROCEDURE FOR COMPUTING THE SEVERITY OF DROUGHT AND WET SPELLS. Al, RESULTS FOR WESTERN KANSAS DROUGHTS. ‘The drought of 1894. ‘The drought of 1913 — ‘The drought of the 1930's. Agricultural aspoots ‘Vogetative cover measurements ‘The duststorms Disaster declaration - ‘The 1950's drought. Drought and streamflow. ‘The drought of 1934.. Hyadrologie data. ‘The drought of 1936. ‘The drought of 1947 ‘The drought during the 1950's. ni eecensenurns