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Turkey.
1
DEBT INDICATORS
Republic of Turkey
Ministry of Treasury and Finance
August 2018
Current Situation in Debt Management
With the fiscal disipline and efficient debt management implemented
in recent years in Turkey;
3
EU Defined General Government Gross Debt (% of GDP)
75
72,1
70
65,7
65
Maastricht Criterion: 60 %
60
57,7
55
50,8
50
44,7
43,9
45
38,1 40,1
40 38,2
36,5
35 32,7
31,4
28,8
30 27,6 28,3 28,3 28,4
25
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Q1
Source: Republic of Turkey Ministry of Treasury and Finance
4
General Government Gross Debt (% of GDP)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Q1
EU (28 countries) 83,8 85,7 86,4 84,5 83,2 81,6 81,5
Euro Area (18 countries) 89,8 91,8 92,0 90,1 89,2 86,9 86,9
Greece 159,6 177,4 178,9 176,8 180,8 178,6 180,4
Italy 123,4 129,0 131,8 131,5 132,0 131,8 133,4
Portugal 126,2 129,0 130,6 128,8 129,9 125,7 126,4
Belgium 104,3 105,5 107,0 106,1 106,0 103,4 106,3
Spain 85,7 95,5 100,4 99,4 99,0 98,3 98,8
France 90,6 93,4 94,9 95,6 96,6 96,8 97,7
United Kingdom 84,1 85,2 87,0 87,9 87,9 87,5 85,8
Austria 81,9 81,3 84,0 84,6 83,6 78,3 77,2
Hungary 78,4 77,1 76,6 76,7 76,0 73,6 73,9
Germany 79,8 77,5 74,7 71,0 68,2 64,1 62,9
Netherlands 66,4 67,8 68,0 64,8 62,0 57,1 55,2
Turkey 32,7 31,4 28,8 27,6 28,3 28,3 28,4
Source: Eurostat, (Updated: 07-20-2018); Republic of Turkey Ministry of Treasury and Finance, (As of June 29, 2018)
5
EU Defined General Government Debt Stock
(Million TL) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Q1
Total Debt 508.693 513.666 567.918 588.165 646.472 738.501 877.944 922.279
Central Government 543.462 554.218 608.590 639.468 706.761 797.730 933.443 976.176
Local Government 28.146 29.499 33.567 31.987 36.615 46.633 60.466 65.042
Social Security Funds 11 9 11 9 9 9 9 10
Between Sector Consolidation - 62.925 - 70.060 - 74.250 - 83.299 - 96.914 -105.871 -115.975 -118.948
(Million TL) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Q1
Total Debt 508.693 513.666 567.918 588.165 646.472 738.501 877.944 922.279
Currency and Deposits 994 1.139 1.291 1.502 1.815 2.087 2.342 2.413
Securities 429.429 440.169 480.065 500.399 546.524 619.409 735.413 768.769
Loans 78.271 72.357 86.562 86.265 98.132 117.005 140.189 151.097
(*) For quarterly terms, ratios are calculated using GDP in TL amounts on a four quarter moving basis.
I- Public Gross Debt Stock 546,0 562,7 622,9 649,9 722,1 819,8 954,6 993,3
• Central Government 519,1 532,9 586,2 612,5 678,2 760,0 876,5 913,2
• Rest of the Public Sector 27,0 29,8 36,7 37,4 43,8 59,8 78,1 80,1
II- Assets and Public Sector
256,4 322,3 425,6 463,1 561,1 600,6 692,3 721,6
Deposit
• Central Bank Net Assets 143,2 189,5 271,1 304,4 376,2 397,1 445,5 481,9
• Public Sector Deposits 59,8 71,6 84,2 77,4 91,8 100,3 130,1 119,1
• Unemployment Insurance Fund 53,5 61,2 70,4 81,4 93,1 103,2 116,7 120,7
III- Public Net Debt Stock 289,6 240,5 197,2 186,8 161,0 219,2 262,2 271,6
7
Public Net Debt Stock (Billion TL)
350,0
317,5
300,0 309,0
271,6
289,6
262,2
274,5 270,1
250,0 267,1
257,9
250,8 247,9
240,5
215,3 219,2
200,0
197,2
186,8
150,0 161,0
100,0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Q1
70
59.9
60 53.6
47.6
50
40.1
34.4 23.2
40 18.5 32.7
10.0 28.2 26.8 30.9 27.4
30 6.2 2.5
3.1 0.8 20.8
2.7 15.3
0.6 10.9
20 9.1
30.4 30.1 6.9 8.4 8.4 8.4
25.5 29.1 26.5 28.4 26.6
25.1 24.1
10 20.1 18.3 15.3
0.0
12.6 9.2 9.1 8.4 8.5
0 -3.0 -4.4 -3.4 -0.1
-2.4 -0.7
-10
2018 Q1
2003
2006
2014
2017
2002
2004
2005
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2015
2016
TL FX Denominated/Indexed
100
26.3 25.2
32.4 30.2
38.5 34.8
44.2 43.0 44.0 40.8 40.2
46.1 46.0 46.5
75 51.1 49.8
50
73.7 74.8
67.6 69.8
61.5 65.2
57.0 56.0 59.2 59.8
53.9 54.0 55.8 53.5
25 48.9 50.2
0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
July
Fixed Floating
100
50
0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
July
TL Foreign Exch.
100
34,9 35,6
43,4 41,7 40,5
75 48,7 51,0 48,6 48,9 49,9 51,0 48,3 47,8 47,4
54,8 53,7
50
65,1 64,4
56,6 58,3 59,5
25 51,3 49,0 51,4 51,1 50,1 49,0 51,7 52,2 52,6
45,2 46,3
0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
July
Fixed Floating
2001 2017
Note: The effects of scenarios on “General Government Debt Stock/GDP” ratio (as defined by ESA standards) are
measured by deviations from baseline scenarios based on end-2001 and end-2017 stock figures.
13
Gross External Debt Stock of Turkey (Billion USD)
Billion USD 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Q1
TOTAL 291.7 305.3 342.0 392.3 405.3 399.7 408.7 454.3 466.7
SHORT TERM 77.2 83.1 102.4 133.3 135.1 105.4 101.4 117.9 122.2
LONG TERM 214.5 222.2 239.5 259.0 270.2 294.4 307.3 336.4 344.4
PUBLIC SECTOR 89.1 95.8 106.3 118.9 121.3 116.6 123.3 136.4 140.9
SHORT TERM 4.3 8.6 13.3 20.6 21.4 18.1 19.7 22.1 24.0
LONG TERM 84.8 87.3 93.0 98.3 99.8 98.6 103.5 114.3 116.8
CBRT 11.6 9.3 7.1 5.2 2.5 1.3 0.8 0.7 0.7
SHORT TERM 1.6 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1
LONG TERM 10.0 8.1 6.1 4.4 2.1 1.2 0.7 0.6 0.6
PRIVATE SECTOR 191.0 200.2 228.6 268.1 281.6 281.7 284.6 317.2 325.1
SHORT TERM 71.4 73.3 88.1 111.8 113.3 87.1 81.6 95.6 98.1
LONG TERM 119.7 126.9 140.5 156.3 168.2 194.6 203.0 221.5 227.0
14
Ratios on Gross External Debt of Turkey (%)
GROSS EXTERNAL DEBT STOCK / GDP 37,8 36,7 39,3 41,3 43,4 46,4 47,4 53,4 52,9
15
Gross External Debt Stock of Turkey / GDP (%)
60,0
55,0 53,4
54,8
52,9
50,0
47,4
45,0 45,9 46,4
43,4
40,0 41,6 41,3
40,0
39,3
38,0 37,8
35,0 36,9 36,7
36,2
34,2
30,0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Q1
3 2.7
2.2
2 1.8
1.7
1.6 1.6 1.6
1.5
1.4
1.2
1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1
1.0
1
0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Billion USD 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Q1
I- Gross External Debt Stock, Excluding Banking Sector (A-a-b) 204,3 216,3 229,4 228,2 231,4 243,2 271,3 279,4
A. Gross External Debt Stock of Turkey 305,3 342,0 392,3 405,3 399,7 408,7 454,3 466,7
a. Central Bank of Turkey (-) 9,3 7,1 5,2 2,5 1,3 0,8 0,7 0,7
b. Banks (-) 91,7 118,6 157,7 174,6 167,0 164,7 182,3 186,6
II- Banking Sector / Monetary Sector Net Foreign Assets (**) 21,7 26,3 -0,3 -16,5 -21,3 -10,7 -19,8 -23,8
A. Monetary Authorities and Deposit Money Banks (*) 30,8 38,5 15,2 0,0 -4,6 7,7 1,1 -3,2
B. Investment and Development Banks & Participation Banks -9,2 -12,2 -15,6 -16,5 -16,6 -18,4 -20,9 -20,6
III- NET EXTERNAL DEBT STOCK (I-II) 182,6 190,0 229,7 244,7 252,7 254,0 291,2 303,2
Net External Debt Stock/GDP (% ) % 22,0 % 21,8 % 24,2 % 26,1 % 29,3 % 29,4 % 34,2 % 34,3
Memo:
GDP (USD) (***) 831,7 871,1 950,4 934,9 861,9 862,7 851,0 882,8
(*) As the Treasury’s obligations to the IMF is included in the external liability side of the Monetary Survey table and Gross External Debt Stock, this amount is
subtracted from CBRT’s liabilities in order to avoid double counting.
(**) Central Bank's Banking Survey data, that is not published anymore, was used until 2005. After 2005, Monetary Survey data is used as net foreign assets of
monetary sector.
%34,3
%35,0
%34,2
%30,7
%30,0
%29,4
%25,6 %29,3
%25,0 %26,1
%22,6 %22,4
%22,0 %24,2
%19,8 %19,5
%20,0 %21,8
%19,8 %19,8
%15,0
%10,0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Q1
J 03
J 04
J 05
J 06
J 07
J 08
J 09
J 10
J 11
J 12
J 13
J 14
J 15
J 16
J 17
J 18
J
J
O
O
A
A
*As of July, 2018
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
J-08
A-08
J-08
O-08
J-09
A-09
J-09
O-09
J-10
A-10
J-10
O-10
J-11
A-11
J-11
O-11
J-12
A-12
A-12
N-12
F-13
M-13
A-13
N-13
Spreads on Turkey’s External Debt (bp)
F-14
M-14
A-14
EMBI+
N-14
F-15
M-15
A-15
EMBI Turkey
N-15
Turkey - EMBI+
F-16
M-16
A-16
N-16
M-17
J-17
S-17
D-17
M-18
J-18
21
Average Maturity of Domestic Borrowing (Months)
80 74,3
71,8 71,2 69,7
68,5 67,4
70
60,8
60
50 44,1 44,7
40 34,0 35,3
31,7
27,7 28,0
30
20 14,8
11,6
9,4
10
0
20022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018*
*As of June, 2018
30
25 22.4
20.6 20.2 20.0 19.7
20 17.6 18.1
16.5 16.4
15,3 15.7
14.2 14.8 14.4
15
12.2
10.1 9.9 10.0 10.3
9.5 9.1 10.0 10.0 9.0
10 8.6 8.2
8.0 8.0
7.0
6.6
5.0
5 3.0
0
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Euro Dollar Yen
23
Time to Maturity of Domestic Debt Stock (Months)
60
55,0 55,1
51,9
50,5 50,6
50 46,9
40
33,6
31,0 31,1
30
25,7
23,5 24,0 23,9 24,4
20
12,8 12,4 11,8
10
0
2002
2010
2011
2012
2013
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
July
Source: Republic of Turkey Ministry of Treasury and Finance 24
Share of Foreign Residents in Domestic Debt Stock (%)
28
23,2
24 21,5 21,5
19,4
20 17,3 17,3 17,3
15,6
16 13,6 13,4
12,4
12 10,3
10,3 8,6
8
7,1
4 4,4
Source: CBRT 25
TL Denominated Eurobond Issuances of Foreign Corporates (Billion TL)
140
135
130
125
120
115
110
105
100
95
90
85
80
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
J 05
J 05
J 06
J 06
J 07
J 07
J 08
J 08
J 09
J 09
J 10
J 10
J 11
J 11
J 12
J 12
J 13
J 13
J 14
J 14
J 15
J 15
J 16
J 16
J 17
J 17
J 18
J 18
Source : Reuters & Bloomberg 26
Net Financing from IMF (Billion SDR)
10
8.0
6
5.0
2.6
2
1.0
0.4
0.0
-0.5 -0.6
-2 -1.4 -1.3
-1.8
-2.4 -2.6
-3.1
-3.6
-6
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
16.2 16.2
16
13.8
12 11.2
10.2
8 7.2
5.5
4.5 5.1
3.2 3.6
4
1.9
0.6
0.5
0.0
0
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
19
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury
28
Treasury Guaranteed Debt Stock (Million USD)
15.000
14,189
14.000
13.000
12.000
11.000
10.000
9.000
8.000
7.000
6.000
5.000
4.000
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018 Q1
Source: Treasury
29
The Ratio of Undertaken Treasury Guarantees to Total
Guaranteed Payments (%)
60
51,9
50
40
27,3
30 24,7
22,1
19,7
18,1 16,7
20 16,4
8,2
10 6,4
5,4 3,9
3,4 2,8 2,6
0,9 1,1
0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
July*
500
400
300
200
100
0
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
July 2018
Local Administrations Local Adm.(Investment Guarantees) SOEs Other
Source: Treasury
31
Public Sector Primary Surplus / GDP (%) (Program Defined)
6 5,3
5 4,6 4,6
4,3
4
3,0
3 2003-2015 Average: 2,1
2 1,5 1,6
0,7 0,9 0,9
1 0,5 0,5 0,6
0,2
0
-1 -0,6 -0,4
-1,0 -1,0
-2 -1,5
1993 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017* 2018* 2019* 2020*
-
2002
32
Central Government Budget Deficit / GDP (%)
14
12 11,6 11,2
10
8,6
8
6 5,3
5,0
4 3,5
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018*
2019*
2020*
(*) Provisional
2018-2020: Medium Term Program targets.
Source: Ministry of Finance, 2018-2020 MTP 33
EU Defined General Government Budget Deficit (% of GDP)
25 23,7
20
15
10,1
10 8,9
6,5
-5
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011f 2012 2013 2014 2015
34
Source: EUROSTAT
Public Sector Borrowing Requirement (% of GDP)
13
11,8
11
9,7
9
7,0 7,1
7
4,8
5
3,5
3 2,2 2,4 2,1
1,5 1,9
0,9 1,0 1,3
1 0,1 0,1 0,4 0,5 0,0
-1 -0,1
-1,8
-3
g.
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
*
17
18
19
20
Av
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
0
00
-2
90
19
59,8
60
50
40
30
20
8,2
10
0
1985-2003 2003 - 2016
36
Central Government Interest Payments / Tax Revenues
(%)
90 85,7
80
70,9
70
60 56,3
50
38,2
40 33,4 31,9
30,1 30,9
30
22,9
16,6 17,4 15,3
20 14,2 13,0
10,9 10,6
10
0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017*
(*) Provisional 37
Central Government Interest Payments / GDP (%)
20
14,4
15
12,5
9,8
10
6,8
5,8 5,5
5,1 5,3
5 4,2
3,0 3,1 2,8 2,4 2,3 1,9
1,8
0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017*
(*) Provisional 38
DEBT INDICATORS