CHAPTER SIx CHAPTER OUTLINE Popul: Some Population Definitions Bicth Rates| Fertility Rates Death Rates Population Pyramids Natural Inceéase and Doubling Times ion Growth The Demographic Transition ‘The Westem Experience A Divided World Converging ‘The Demographic Equation Population Relocation Immigration Impacts World Population Distribution Population Density Overpopulation Urbanization Population Data and Projections Population Data Population Projections Population Controls Population Prospects Momentusn Aging SUMMARY OF KEY CONCEPTS KEY WoRDS, THINKING GEOGRAPHICALLYero, possibly even negative [population] growth” ‘was the 1972 slogan proposed by the prime min- ister of Singapore, an island country in Southeast Asia, His nation’s population, which stood at I million at the end of World War IT (1945), had doubled by the mid-1960s. To avoid the overpopulation he foresaw, the government decreed, “Boy or giel, nwo is enough,” and refused maternity leaves and access to health insurance for third or subsequent births, Abortion and sterilization were legalized, and children born fourth or later in a fumily were to be discriminated against in school admissions policy. In response, by the mid-1980s, birth rates had fallen below the level necessary to replace the population, and abortions were terminating more than one~ third of all pregnancies. "At least two. Better three. Four if you can afford it” was the national slogan proposed by the same prime minister in 1986, reflecting fears that the stringencies of the earlier cam- paiga had gone too far. From concern that overpopulation ‘would doom the country to perpetual Thisd World poverty, Prime Minister Lee Kuan Yew was moved to worry that popu~ Jation limitation would deprive it of the growth potential and national strength implicit in a youthful, educated workforce adequate to replace and support the present aging population. His 1990 national budget provided for sizeable, long-term tax rebates for second children born to mothers under 28. Not cer- ‘ain that financial inducements alone would suffice to increase the population, the Singapore government annually renewed ies offer to rake 100,000 Hong Kong Chinese who might choose to Teave when China took over that territory in 1997. The policy reversal in Singapore reflects an inflexible popula~ tion relity: the structure of the present controls the content of the future. The size, characteristics, growth trends, and migrations of today’s populations help shape the well-being of peoples yet unborn but whose numbers and distributions are now being determined. The mumbers, age, and sex distribu- tion of people; the patterns and trends in theit fertility and mortality; and their density of settlement and rate of growth all affect and are affected by the social, political, and economic organization of a society. Through population data we begin to understand how the people in a given area live, how they may interact with one another, how they use the land, what pres- sure on resources exists, and what the future may bring. Population geography provides the background tools and understandings of those interests, It focuses on the mur bes, composition, and distribution of human beings in rela~ tion to variations in the conditions of earth space. It differs from demography, the statistical study of human population, in its concern with spatial analysis—the relationship of num- bers to area. Regional circumstances of resource base, type of economic development, standard of living, food supply, and conditions of health and well-being are basic to geography’s population concerns. They are, as well, fundamental expres- sions of the human-envionment relationships that are the substance ofall human geographic inquiry. “ Population Geography CHAPTER SIX 161 POPULATION GROWTH Sometime in 2011, a human birth will raise Earth’s popula tion to 7 billion people. In 1999, the count was 6 billion. As of mid-2010, the world population was growing by an average ‘of 74 million people annually, or some 202,000 per day. While the increases are substantial, they have been declining over the years. During the early 1990s, the U.S. Census Bureau and ‘the United Nations Population Division segulaely reported yearly growth at 85 to 90 million. Even with the slower pace of recorded increase, in 2006 the United Nations projected that the world would likely contain about 9.2 billion inhabitants in 2050. Even then, it would continue to add a few million annu- ally and grow to perhaps 9.4 or 9.5 billion by the year 2100. Impressed by dramatic birth rate reductions reported by 2007 for many developing and populous countries—India, importantly—many demographers lowered their estimates to predict end-of-century world totals peaking at between 8 and 9 billion, followed by numerical decline, not stability oF slow increase. All do agree, however, that essentially all or any future growth will occur in countries now considered “develop- ing” (Figure 6.1), with especially rapid growth in the 50 least- developed states. The majority of the world’s most populous countries are developing countries, and that trend will have ‘become more pronounced by 2050 (Table 6.1). We will return to these projections later in this chapter and to the difficulties and disagreements inherent in making them. Just what is implied by numbers in the millions and bil- Tions? With what can we compare the 2010 population of Estonia in Europe (about 1.3 million) or of China (about 1.3 billion)? Unless we have some grasp of their scale and mean ing, our understanding of the data and data manipulations of the population geographer can at best be superficial. Tis diffi- cult to appreciate a number as vast as 1 million or 1 billion and the great distinction between them, Two examples offered by the Population Reference Bureau may help in visualizing their immensity and implications: + A25-centimeter (I-in,) stack of U.S. paper currency contains 233 bills. If you had a milfion dollars in thousand-dollar bills, the stack would be 11 centimeters (43 in.) high. If you had a dilfien dollars in thousand dollar bills, your pile of money would reach 109 meters (358 ft) —about the length of a football field. + You had lived a milion seconds when you were 11.6 days, old. You wontt be a dion seconds old until you are 31.7 years of age ‘The implications of the present numbers and the potential increases in population are of vital current social, political, and ecological concem. Population numbers were much smaller some 12,000 years ago, when continental glaciers began their retreat, people spread to formerly unoccupied portions of the lobe, and human experimentation with food sources initi- ated the Agricultural Revolution. The 5 or 10 million people ‘who then constituted all of humanity obviously had consider able potential to expand their numbers. In retrospect, we see162 PARTTWO 1750-2100, (ansolue siza) 1750 1800 185018001950 20002050, FIGURE 6.1 World population numbers and projections. {a) After two centuries of slow growth, world population began explosive expansion attr World War I (1839-1945). United Nations, \demmegraphers project a global population of 9.2 bilfon in 2050, Decining growth ratas in much of the developing world have lowered eater year 2700 estimates of global population from 10 bilion to no mote than 8.4 to 98 bilion; same demoaraphers que ‘or further reducing ito between 8 and 9 billon. Numbers in mors- ‘developed regions at the mice ofthe century wil be the same or lower than at its stat, thanks to population stably or decine below early 2000 levels in 51 counties and areas. However, higher fertity Fates end immigration are projected to increase the US. population bby more thar: 50% between 2000 and 2050, and large-volume. immigration into Europe could alter iis popuation decine projections, In contrast, the populations of the less-developed regions ray Increase by more than 60% laetween 2000 and 2060. (b) Although Cony tle mare than 80% of world population was found in regions CConsidored “iess-ceveloned” in 2000, more than 9 out of 10 of a lerger total willbe located there in 2050. Sowoes: (a Estimates fan Poputtin Reference Bua ra United Nets Poptston Fund) Based on [Unted Natore and US, Bureau of te Census dita and projections, that the natural resource base of the earth had a population- supporting capacity far in excess of the pressures exerted on it by early hunting and gathering groups. Some observers maintain that, despite present numbers for even those we can reasonably anticipate for the future, the adaptive and exploitative ingenuity of humans is in no danger of being taxed, Others, however, frightened by the resource demands of a growing world population that had already ‘expanded four-fold—from 1.6 billion to 6.1 billion—in the century from 1900 to 2000, compare Earth to a self-contained spaceship and declare with chilling conviction that a finite vessel cannot bear an ever-increasing number of passengers ‘They point to recurting problems of malnutrition and starva~ tion (though these are realistically more a matter of failures of distribution than of inability to produce enough foodstuffs worldwide). They cite dangerous conditions of air and water pollution, the loss of forest and farmland, the apparent near- ing exhaustion of many minerals and fossil fuels, and other ‘The Culture-Environment Tradition Share of world population, 2000 Total= 8. billon Estimated share of world population, 2050, Total = 9.2bilion (Values do not ack up to 100% due to rounding) evidences of strains on world resources as foreelling the dis- cernible outer limits of population growth. On a worldwide basis, populations grow only one way: the number of births in a given period exceeds the number of deaths. Current estimates of slowing world population growth and eventual stability or decline clearly indicate that humans, by their individual and collective decisions, may effectively fimit growth and control global population numbers. The implications of these observations will become clearer after we define some terms important in the study of world population and explore their significance. SOME POPULATION DEFINITIONS Demographers use a wide range of measures of popula- tion composition and trends, though all their calculations start with a count of events: of individuals in the population, births, deaths, marriages, and so on, To those basic counts,