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  • DMA Forecasting Model Comparison

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    Gustavo Andres Bejarano Parra
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    The document contains data on historical and forecasted demand values over a period of 24 periods. It compares the actual historical data to the forecasted values, calculating the errors between them. It then calculates various statistical measures like averages, totals, and mean absolute deviation (MAD) on the error data.

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    PRONOSTICOS

    Original Title

    Final Pronosticos

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    The document contains data on historical and forecasted demand values over a period of 24 periods. It compares the actual historical data to the forecasted values, calculating the errors between them. It then calculates various statistical measures like averages, totals, and mean absolute deviation (MAD) on the error data.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
    3 views10 pages

    DMA Forecasting Model Comparison

    Uploaded by

    Gustavo Andres Bejarano Parra
    The document contains data on historical and forecasted demand values over a period of 24 periods. It compares the actual historical data to the forecasted values, calculating the errors between them. It then calculates various statistical measures like averages, totals, and mean absolute deviation (MAD) on the error data.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
    of 10

    N 1 DMA 4 N DMA

    Dato
    Periodo Pronostico Error 1 4
    Historico
    1 30 2 2.8
    2 32 30.00 2 3 3
    3 30 32.00 2 4 1.9375
    4 39 30.00 9 5 2.4
    5 33 39.00 6 6 2.75
    6 34 33.00 1
    7 34 34.00 0
    8 38 34.00 4
    9 36 38.00 2 DATO HISTORICO VS PRONOSTICO
    10 39 36.00 3 42
    11 30 39.00 9 40
    12 36 30.00 6
    38
    13 38 36.00 2
    36
    14 30 38.00 8
    15 35 30.00 5 34
    16 30 35.00 5 32
    17 34 30.00 4 30
    18 40 34.00 6
    28
    19 36 40.00 4 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2
    20 32 36.00 4
    21 40 32.00 8
    22 36 40.00 4
    23 40 36.00 4
    24 34 40.00 6

    Total 44
    N Total 11
    ORICO VS PRONOSTICO

    10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
    α 0.6 DMA 2.79888258

    Dato
    Periodo At Pronostico Error α DMA
    Historico
    0 31.73 0.1 2.9698
    1 30 30.69 31.73 1.73 0.2 2.6774
    2 32 31.48 30.69 1.31 0.3 2.5514
    3 30 30.59 31.48 1.48 0.35176462 2.54121362
    4 39 35.64 30.59 8.41 0.4 2.54924218
    5 33 34.05 35.64 2.64 0.5 2.61031881
    6 34 34.02 34.05 0.05 0.6 2.79888258
    7 34 34.01 34.02 0.02
    8 38 36.40 34.01 3.99
    9 36 36.16 36.40 0.40
    10 39 37.86 36.16 2.84
    11 30 33.15 37.86 7.86
    12 36 34.86 33.15 2.85
    12 36 35.54 34.86 1.14
    13 38 37.02 35.54 2.46
    14 30 32.81 37.02 7.02
    15 35 34.12 32.81 2.19
    16 30 31.65 34.12 4.12
    17 34 33.06 31.65 2.35
    18 40 37.22 33.06 6.94
    19 36 36.49 37.22 1.22
    20 32 33.80 36.49 4.49
    21 40 37.52 33.80 6.20
    22 36 36.61 37.52 1.52
    23 40 38.64 36.61 3.39
    24 34 35.86 38.64 4.64
    Dato historico vs Pronostico
    40

    38

    36 f(x) = 0.3881118881x + 31.7272727273

    34

    32

    30

    28
    1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
    α 0.08251375 β 0.45027671 DMA 2.74 α
    0.1
    Dato
    Periodo Lt Tt Pronostico Error 0.2
    Historico
    0 34.00 2.73 0.3
    1 40 37.00 2.85 36.73 3.27 0.4
    2 47 40.44 3.12 39.85 7.15 0.5
    3 50 44.09 3.36 43.56 6.44 0.6
    4 49 47.57 3.41 47.45 1.55 0.1227139
    5 56 51.40 3.60 50.99 5.01
    6 53 54.84 3.53 55.00 2.00
    7 55 58.09 3.40 58.36 3.36
    8 63 61.61 3.46 61.49 1.51
    9 68 65.31 3.57 65.07 2.93
    10 65 68.56 3.42 68.88 3.88
    11 72 71.98 3.42 71.98 0.02 Dato h
    12 69 74.88 3.18 75.40 6.40 118
    13 79 78.14 3.22 78.06 0.94 108 f(x) = 3.0008695652x + 38.07246376
    14 82 81.41 3.24 81.36 0.64 98
    15 80 84.27 3.07 84.65 4.65
    88
    16 84 87.07 2.95 87.34 3.34
    17 94 90.34 3.09 90.01 3.99 78

    18 89 93.07 2.93 93.44 4.44 68


    19 96 96.00 2.93 96.00 0.00 58
    20 100 99.02 2.97 98.93 1.07 48
    21 100 101.82 2.90 101.99 1.99
    38
    22 105 104.74 2.91 104.72 0.28
    28
    23 108 107.68 2.92 107.65 0.35 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
    24 110 110.55 2.90 110.60 0.60
    β DMA
    0.1 2.9

    0.2 2.7

    0.3 2.97
    0.4 3.17
    0.5 3.37
    0.6 3.61
    0.6 2.85341797

    Dato historico vs Pronostico

    f(x) = 3.0008695652x + 38.0724637681

    1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
    a 0.72886754 b 0.23412741 g 0.29893592 DMA 0.914

    t-1 t-2 t st-c(2) st-c(1) st-c


    0
    1 4 13 9 13 0.205 0.240 0.223
    2 3 14 6 7 0.154 0.160 0.157
    3 10 15 18 23 0.513 0.480 0.496
    4 14 16 27 32 0.718 0.720 0.719
    5 25 17 48 58 1.282 1.280 1.281
    6 26 18 50 60 1.333 1.333 1.333
    7 38 19 75 90 1.949 2.000 1.974
    8 40 20 77 93 2.051 2.053 2.052
    9 28 21 52 63 1.436 1.387 1.411
    10 17 22 33 39 0.872 0.880 0.876
    11 16 23 31 37 0.821 0.827 0.824
    12 13 24 24 29 0.667 0.640 0.653

    Promedio 19.5 Prom 37.5

    100

    90

    80

    70

    60
    DEMANDA

    50

    40

    30

    20

    10

    0
    1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

    PERIODOS
    0
    1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

    PERIODOS
    Lt Tl St f(t-1,t) Error
    45.75 1.5
    55.384 3.404 0.226 10.69 2.312
    48.453 0.985 0.153 9.01 2.006
    47.174 0.455 0.494 24.41 1.410
    45.354 -0.078 0.715 34.05 2.053
    45.276 -0.078 1.281 58.00 0.000
    45.054 -0.112 1.333 60.24 0.243
    45.410 -0.002 1.977 88.83 1.167
    45.340 -0.018 2.052 93.18 0.176
    44.825 -0.134 1.410 63.88 0.883
    44.570 -0.163 0.876 39.13 0.133
    44.785 -0.074 0.824 36.61 0.392
    44.475 -0.129 0.653 29.19 0.194

    DATOS HISTORICOS
    PRONOSTICOS

    9 10 11 12
    9 10 11 12

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