LAPORAN ASISTENSI

PRAKTIKUM PERANCANGAN TATA LETAK FASILITAS

MODUL 1
RISET PASAR

Nama Instruktur : Tiaradia Ihsan, ST.

Nama Asisten : Riri Lestari
Usi Putri

Disusun oleh:
Amin Rais
(051401018)

LABORATORIUM SISTEM PRODUKSI

PROGRAM STUDI TEK NIK INDUSTRI
FAKULTAS TEKNIK
UNIVERSITAS WIDYATAMA
BANDUNG
2018
 BAB VI

PENGUMPULAN DAN PENGOLAHAN DATA

4.1 PENGUMPULAN DATA

4.1.1 Riset Pasar

Pengumpulan data dilakukan dengan mengolah data demand yang ditentukan

berupa 36 nilai Data Perusahaan dan Data Pesaing, lalu nilai Data Perusahaan
tersebut ditambahkan dua digit NPM yaitu 051401018 jadi ditambah 18, lalu
dikalikan 2200.
Tabel 4. 1 Data Awal
Data Perusahaan Data Pesaing
Sepeda Meja & Kursi Sepeda Meja & Kursi
87193 97576 67400 75810
90440 94865 68443 74569
87616 89841 69919 76990
90257 95217 68302 76168
89803 94892 70327 78667
89590 92464 69236 75886
91144 96720 69682 76789
92842 92920 70989 78430
91095 93621 69665 79171
91448 99283 70260 79531
93870 94773 72361 78257
92456 101108 71835 79904
91026 107552 71753 78484
93495 102531 70585 79987
94378 104315 72292 79462
92655 101320 72033 82369
93547 106317 72271 80831
93880 97663 71919 81999
92969 96807 73435 81695
94918 99324 74278 82361
96308 106174 75138 84279
97035 100251 75498 81590
94786 105016 76526 84627
96771 99203 76225 83126
95848 101202 77163 84794
98812 102202 75892 82818
96431 106265 74746 83363
96103 105046 74833 85778
97474 106538 75963 84070
95208 103819 78374 85440
96790 105295 77159 85465
96344 103986 77985 83952
96613 105954 77123 84841
101189 107292 79136 86920
100163 98839 78791 87343
101083 106171 79879 88479
(Sumber: Pengumpulan Data)

1
4.2 PEGOLAHAN DATA

Berikut adalah demand Data Perusahaan tersebut ditambahkan dua digit NPM yaitu
051401018 jadi ditambah 18, lalu dikalikan 1500.

Tabel 4. 2 Data Awal + NPM

Data Perusahaan Data Pesaing
Sepeda Meja & Kursi Sepeda Meja & Kursi
126793 137176 107000 115410
130040 134465 108043 114169
127216 129441 109519 116590
129857 134817 107902 115768
129403 134492 109927 118267
129190 132064 108836 115486
130744 136320 109282 116389
132442 132520 110589 118030
130695 133221 109265 118771
131048 138883 109860 119131
133470 134373 111961 117857
132056 140708 111435 119504
130626 147152 111353 118084
133095 142131 110185 119587
133978 143915 111892 119062
132255 140920 111633 121969
133147 145917 111871 120431
133480 137263 111519 121599
132569 136407 113035 121295
134518 138924 113878 121961
135908 145774 114738 123879
136635 139851 115098 121190
134386 144616 116126 124227
136371 138803 115825 122726
135448 140802 116763 124394
138412 141802 115492 122418
136031 145865 114346 122963
135703 144646 114433 125378
137074 146138 115563 123670
134808 143419 117974 125040
136390 144895 116759 125065
135944 143586 117585 123552
136213 145554 116723 124441
140789 146892 118736 126520
139763 138439 118391 126943
140683 145771 119479 128079
(Sumber: Pengolahan Data)

Universitas Widyatama 2
4.2.1 Agregasi
Tabel 4. 3 Agregasi Produk Jetrike dan Otoped
Data Perusahaan Data Pesaing
Jumlah Jumlah
Periode Jetrike Otopet Periode Jetrike Otopet
1 262,643,900,000 43,601,600,000 306,245,500,000 1 155,020,000,000 26,533,500,000 181,553,500,000
2 270,112,000,000 42,652,750,000 312,764,750,000 2 157,418,900,000 26,099,150,000 183,518,050,000
3 263,616,800,000 40,894,350,000 304,511,150,000 3 160,813,700,000 26,946,500,000 187,760,200,000
4 269,691,100,000 42,775,950,000 312,467,050,000 4 157,094,600,000 26,658,800,000 183,753,400,000
5 268,646,900,000 42,662,200,000 311,309,100,000 5 161,752,100,000 27,533,450,000 189,285,550,000
6 268,157,000,000 41,812,400,000 309,969,400,000 6 159,242,800,000 26,560,100,000 185,802,900,000
7 271,731,200,000 43,302,000,000 315,033,200,000 7 160,268,600,000 26,876,150,000 187,144,750,000
8 275,636,600,000 41,972,000,000 317,608,600,000 8 163,274,700,000 27,450,500,000 190,725,200,000
9 271,618,500,000 42,217,350,000 313,835,850,000 9 160,229,500,000 27,709,850,000 187,939,350,000
10 272,430,400,000 44,199,050,000 316,629,450,000 10 161,598,000,000 27,835,850,000 189,433,850,000
11 278,001,000,000 42,620,550,000 320,621,550,000 11 166,430,300,000 27,389,950,000 193,820,250,000
12 274,748,800,000 44,837,800,000 319,586,600,000 12 165,220,500,000 27,966,400,000 193,186,900,000
13 271,459,800,000 47,093,200,000 318,553,000,000 13 165,031,900,000 27,469,400,000 192,501,300,000
14 277,138,500,000 45,335,850,000 322,474,350,000 14 162,345,500,000 27,995,450,000 190,340,950,000
15 279,169,400,000 45,960,250,000 325,129,650,000 15 166,271,600,000 27,811,700,000 194,083,300,000
16 275,206,500,000 44,912,000,000 320,118,500,000 16 165,675,900,000 28,829,150,000 194,505,050,000
17 277,258,100,000 46,660,950,000 323,919,050,000 17 166,223,300,000 28,290,850,000 194,514,150,000
18 278,024,000,000 43,632,050,000 321,656,050,000 18 165,413,700,000 28,699,650,000 194,113,350,000
19 275,928,700,000 43,332,450,000 319,261,150,000 19 168,900,500,000 28,593,250,000 197,493,750,000
20 280,411,400,000 44,213,400,000 324,624,800,000 20 170,839,400,000 28,826,350,000 199,665,750,000
21 283,608,400,000 46,610,900,000 330,219,300,000 21 172,817,400,000 29,497,650,000 202,315,050,000
22 285,280,500,000 44,537,850,000 329,818,350,000 22 173,645,400,000 28,556,500,000 202,201,900,000
23 280,107,800,000 46,205,600,000 326,313,400,000 23 176,009,800,000 29,619,450,000 205,629,250,000
24 284,673,300,000 44,171,050,000 328,844,350,000 24 175,317,500,000 29,094,100,000 204,411,600,000
25 282,550,400,000 44,870,700,000 327,421,100,000 25 177,474,900,000 29,677,900,000 207,152,800,000
26 289,367,600,000 45,220,700,000 334,588,300,000 26 174,551,600,000 28,986,300,000 203,537,900,000
27 283,891,300,000 46,642,750,000 330,534,050,000 27 171,915,800,000 29,177,050,000 201,092,850,000
28 283,136,900,000 46,216,100,000 329,353,000,000 28 172,115,900,000 30,022,300,000 202,138,200,000
29 286,290,200,000 46,738,300,000 333,028,500,000 29 174,714,900,000 29,424,500,000 204,139,400,000
30 281,078,400,000 45,786,650,000 326,865,050,000 30 180,260,200,000 29,904,000,000 210,164,200,000
31 284,717,000,000 46,303,250,000 331,020,250,000 31 177,465,700,000 29,912,750,000 207,378,450,000
32 283,691,200,000 45,845,100,000 329,536,300,000 32 179,365,500,000 29,383,200,000 208,748,700,000
33 284,309,900,000 46,533,900,000 330,843,800,000 33 177,382,900,000 29,694,350,000 207,077,250,000
34 294,834,700,000 47,002,200,000 341,836,900,000 34 182,012,800,000 30,422,000,000 212,434,800,000
35 292,474,900,000 44,043,650,000 336,518,550,000 35 181,219,300,000 30,570,050,000 211,789,350,000
36 294,590,900,000 46,609,850,000 341,200,750,000 36 183,721,700,000 30,967,650,000 214,689,350,000
(Sumber: Pengolahan Data)

Contoh perhitungan:
Harga Jetrike = Rp2.300.000,-
Harga Otoped = Rp350.000,-
Market Share 20%

Universitas Widyatama 3
1. Data Perusahaan
Jumlah Harga Produk Jetrike dan Otoped periode 1:

= (Harga Otopad1 × Demand Otopad1) + (Harga Jetrike1 × Jetrike1)

= (2.300.000 × 124.576) + (350.000 × 114.193)
= Rp306,245,500,000

2. Data Pesaing
Jumlah Harga Produk Jetrike dan Otoped periode 1:

= (Harga Otopad1 × Demand Otopad1) + (Harga Jetrike1 × Jetrike1)

= (2.300.000 × 75.810) + (350.000 ×67.400)
= Rp181,553,500,000

4.2.2 Forecast untuk 5 Tahun ke Depan

A. Data Perusahaan
Peramalan dilakukan dengan empat metode, diantarnya DMA (Double Moving
Average), Regresi Linear, Brown dan Holt. Metode yang dipilih adalah yang
menghasilkan nilai MSE paling kecil, dan pada pengolahan data ini yang terpilih
adalah metode Brown dengan rincan sebagai berikut:

Tabel 4. 4 Nilai MSE Peramalan Data Perusahaan

Metode MSE
DMA 2.6520295955E+19
Regresi Linier 4.6577318646E+22
Brown 5.9196644248E+18
Holt 2.4567215725E+19
Sumber: Pengolahan Data

Hasil tersebut menunjukan data peramalan atau forecast yang akan digunakan pada
tahap selanjutnya yaitu disagregasi adalah data permalan metode Brown.

Universitas Widyatama 4
 Tabel 4. 5 Perhitungan Metode Brown Data Perusahaan
1
Periode Demand
S't S''t at bt m F(t+m) et Pe (%)
1 306,245,500,000 306,245,500,000 306,245,500,000
2 312,764,750,000 307,614,542,500 306,532,998,925
3 304,511,150,000 306,962,830,075 306,623,263,467 307,302,396,683 90,264,542 1 307,392,661,225 -2,881,511,225 2,881,511,225 8,303,106,939,801,000,000 -0.946 0.946
4 312,467,050,000 308,118,716,260 306,937,308,554 309,300,123,966 314,045,087 1 309,614,169,053 2,852,880,947 2,852,880,947 8,138,929,697,755,620,000 0.913 0.913
5 311,309,100,000 308,788,696,846 307,326,100,096 310,251,293,596 388,791,542 1 310,640,085,138 669,014,862 669,014,862 447,580,885,576,879,000 0.215 0.215
6 309,969,400,000 309,036,644,509 307,685,314,423 310,387,974,595 359,214,327 1 310,747,188,922 -777,788,922 777,788,922 604,955,607,185,922,000 -0.251 0.251
7 315,033,200,000 310,295,921,163 308,233,541,839 312,358,300,487 548,227,416 1 312,906,527,903 2,126,672,097 2,126,672,097 4,522,734,208,158,380,000 0.675 0.675
8 317,608,600,000 311,831,583,719 308,989,130,634 314,674,036,804 755,588,795 1 315,429,625,599 2,178,974,401 2,178,974,401 4,747,929,440,213,310,000 0.686 0.686
9 313,835,850,000 312,252,479,639 309,674,433,926 314,830,525,352 685,303,291 1 315,515,828,643 -1,679,978,643 1,679,978,643 2,822,328,240,936,120,000 -0.535 0.535
10 316,629,450,000 313,171,643,415 310,408,847,919 315,934,438,911 734,413,993 1 316,668,852,904 -39,402,904 39,402,904 1,552,588,843,633,220 -0.012 0.012
11 320,621,550,000 314,736,123,798 311,317,575,854 318,154,671,742 908,727,935 1 319,063,399,677 1,558,150,323 1,558,150,323 2,427,832,429,065,000,000 0.486 0.486
12 319,586,600,000 315,754,723,801 312,249,376,923 319,260,070,679 931,801,069 1 320,191,871,748 -605,271,748 605,271,748 366,353,888,926,975,000 -0.189 0.189
13 318,553,000,000 316,342,361,803 313,108,903,748 319,575,819,858 859,526,825 1 320,435,346,683 -1,882,346,683 1,882,346,683 3,543,229,035,001,100,000 -0.591 0.591
14 322,474,350,000 317,630,079,325 314,058,350,620 321,201,808,030 949,446,871 1 322,151,254,901 323,095,099 323,095,099 104,390,442,997,820,000 0.100 0.100
15 325,129,650,000 319,204,989,167 315,139,144,715 323,270,833,619 1,080,794,095 1 324,351,627,714 778,022,286 778,022,286 605,318,677,512,666,000 0.239 0.239
16 320,118,500,000 319,396,826,442 316,033,257,878 322,760,395,006 894,113,163 1 323,654,508,169 -3,536,008,169 3,536,008,169 12,503,353,771,234,700,000 -1.105 1.105
17 323,919,050,000 320,346,493,390 316,939,037,336 323,753,949,444 905,779,458 1 324,659,728,902 -740,678,902 740,678,902 548,605,235,867,926,000 -0.229 0.229
18 321,656,050,000 320,621,500,279 317,712,354,555 323,530,646,003 773,317,218 1 324,303,963,221 -2,647,913,221 2,647,913,221 7,011,444,425,946,600,000 -0.823 0.823
19 319,261,150,000 320,335,826,721 318,263,283,710 322,408,369,732 550,929,155 1 322,959,298,887 -3,698,148,887 3,698,148,887 13,676,305,190,419,300,000 -1.158 1.158
20 324,624,800,000 321,236,511,110 318,887,661,464 323,585,360,756 624,377,754 1 324,209,738,510 415,061,490 415,061,490 172,276,040,481,020,000 0.128 0.128
21 330,219,300,000 323,122,896,777 319,777,060,880 326,468,732,674 889,399,416 1 327,358,132,090 2,861,167,910 2,861,167,910 8,186,281,809,213,770,000 0.866 0.866
22 329,818,350,000 324,528,941,954 320,774,955,906 328,282,928,002 997,895,026 1 329,280,823,028 537,526,972 537,526,972 288,935,245,627,489,000 0.163 0.163
23 326,313,400,000 324,903,678,144 321,641,987,576 328,165,368,712 867,031,670 1 329,032,400,382 -2,719,000,382 2,719,000,382 7,392,963,077,316,150,000 -0.833 0.833
24 328,844,350,000 325,731,219,234 322,500,726,225 328,961,712,243 858,738,648 1 329,820,450,891 -976,100,891 976,100,891 952,772,949,410,994,000 -0.297 0.297
25 327,421,100,000 326,086,094,195 323,253,653,499 328,918,534,891 752,927,274 1 329,671,462,165 -2,250,362,165 2,250,362,165 5,064,129,873,663,490,000 -0.687 0.687
26 334,588,300,000 327,871,557,415 324,223,413,322 331,519,701,508 969,759,823 1 332,489,461,331 2,098,838,669 2,098,838,669 4,405,123,758,489,690,000 0.627 0.627
27 330,534,050,000 328,430,680,858 325,106,939,505 331,754,422,211 883,526,183 1 332,637,948,394 -2,103,898,394 2,103,898,394 4,426,388,452,275,780,000 -0.637 0.637
28 329,353,000,000 328,624,367,878 325,845,599,464 331,403,136,292 738,659,959 1 332,141,796,251 -2,788,796,251 2,788,796,251 7,777,384,529,591,660,000 -0.847 0.847
29 333,028,500,000 329,549,235,624 326,623,363,058 332,475,108,190 777,763,594 1 333,252,871,784 -224,371,784 224,371,784 50,342,697,455,342,700 -0.067 0.067
30 326,865,050,000 328,985,556,643 327,119,423,711 330,851,689,575 496,060,653 1 331,347,750,228 -4,482,700,228 4,482,700,228 20,094,601,334,111,300,000 -1.371 1.371
31 331,020,250,000 329,412,842,248 327,601,041,604 331,224,642,892 481,617,893 1 331,706,260,785 -686,010,785 686,010,785 470,610,797,136,316,000 -0.207 0.207
32 329,536,300,000 329,438,768,376 327,986,964,227 330,890,572,525 385,922,622 1 331,276,495,147 -1,740,195,147 1,740,195,147 3,028,279,149,642,350,000 -0.528 0.528
33 330,843,800,000 329,733,825,018 328,353,804,994 331,113,845,042 366,840,766 1 331,480,685,808 -636,885,808 636,885,808 405,623,532,431,813,000 -0.193 0.193
34 341,836,900,000 332,275,470,765 329,177,354,806 335,373,586,724 823,549,812 1 336,197,136,536 5,639,763,464 5,639,763,464 31,806,931,929,869,300,000 1.650 1.650
35 336,518,550,000 333,166,517,405 330,015,078,952 336,317,955,858 837,724,146 1 337,155,680,004 -637,130,004 637,130,004 405,934,641,997,040,000 -0.189 0.189
36 341,200,750,000 334,853,706,250 331,031,190,685 338,676,221,815 1,016,111,733 1 339,692,333,548 1,508,416,452 1,508,416,452 2,275,320,192,664,270,000 0.442 0.442
37 1 339,692,333,548
38 2 340,708,445,281
39 3 341,724,557,014
40 4 342,740,668,747
41 5 343,756,780,480
42 6 344,772,892,213
43 7 345,789,003,946
44 8 346,805,115,679
45 9 347,821,227,412
46 10 348,837,339,145
47 11 349,853,450,878
48 12 350,869,562,611
49 13 351,885,674,344
50 14 352,901,786,077
51 15 353,917,897,810
52 16 354,934,009,543
53 17 355,950,121,276
54 18 356,966,233,009
55 19 357,982,344,742
56 20 358,998,456,475
57 21 360,014,568,208
58 22 361,030,679,941
59 23 362,046,791,674
60 24 363,062,903,407
61 25 364,079,015,140
62 26 365,095,126,873
63 27 366,111,238,606
64 28 367,127,350,339
65 29 368,143,462,072
66 30 369,159,573,805
67 31 370,175,685,538
68 32 371,191,797,271
69 33 372,207,909,004
70 34 373,224,020,737
71 35 374,240,132,470
72 36 375,256,244,203
73 37 376,272,355,936
74 38 377,288,467,669
75 39 378,304,579,402
76 40 379,320,691,135
77 41 380,336,802,868
78 42 381,352,914,601
79 43 382,369,026,334
80 44 383,385,138,067
81 45 384,401,249,800
82 46 385,417,361,533
83 47 386,433,473,266
84 48 387,449,584,999
85 49 388,465,696,732
86 50 389,481,808,465
87 51 390,497,920,198
88 52 391,514,031,931
89 53 392,530,143,664
90 54 393,546,255,397
91 55 394,562,367,130
92 56 395,578,478,863
93 57 396,594,590,596
94 58 397,610,702,329
95 59 398,626,814,062
96 60 399,642,925,795
Jumlah -14,186,916,171.000 61,282,086,115.000 167,579,850,716,821,000,000.000 -4.506 18.888

(Sumber: Pengolahan Data)

Universitas Widyatama 5
Contoh Perhitungan:
1. S’t = α . Xt + (1 – ) . S’t
S’t2 = (0,21 x 312,764,750,000) + (1 – 0,21) x 306,245,500,000
= 307,614,542,500
2. S”t = α . S’t + (1 – ) . S”t
S”t2 = (0,21 x 307,614,542,500) + (1 – 0,21) x 306,245,500,000
= 306,532,998,925
3. at = s’t + (s’t – s”t)
at1 = 306,962,830,075 + (306,962,830,075 – 306,623,263,467)
= 307,302,396,683

4. 𝐛 (𝐬′ − 𝐬" )
𝐍−𝟏

2
bt1 (306 962 830 075– 306 623 263 467) 90 264 542
3−1
5. F(t+m) = at + (bt . m)
F(t+m)1 = 307,302,396,683 + (90 264 542 . 1) = 307,392,661,225
6. et = Demand - F(t + m)
et1 = 304,511,150,000 – 307,392,661,225 = -2,881,511,225
7. (%) 𝐱𝟏 %
𝐃

−2 881 511 225

Pe(%)1 x 100% −0.946%
304 511 150 000
8. Mean Error (ME)
∑ et −14 186 916 171.000
𝑀𝐸 −417262240.3
n 34
9. Mean Absolute Error (MAE)
∑ |et| 61 282 086 115.000
𝑀𝐴𝐸 1802414298
n 34

10. Sum of Square Error (SSE)

𝑆𝑆𝐸 ∑(et)2 201268590442981000000.0

11. Mean of Square Error (MSE)

𝑆𝑆𝐸 201268590442981000000.0
𝑀𝑆𝐸
n 34
5 919 664 424 793 570 000

Universitas Widyatama 6
12. Standard Deviation Error (SDE)

𝑆𝑆𝐸 201268590442981000000.0
𝑆𝐷𝐸 √ √ 2469625112
n−1 34 − 1

13. Mean Percentage Error (MPE)

∑ PE −4.506
𝑀𝑃𝐸 −0.128732405
n 35
14. Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE)
∑ |PE| 18.888
𝑀𝐴𝑃𝐸 0.572353099
n 34

Tabel 4. 6 Perhitungan Alpha Metode Brown Data Perusahaaan

α MSE α MSE
0.1 42,354,104,073,697,300,000.000 0.21 5,919,664,424,793,570,000.000
0.2 4,666,575,666,435,620,000.000 0.22 7,124,291,303,291,170,000.000
0.3 14,577,217,546,807,300,000.000 0.23 281,090,347,276,777,000,000.000
0.4 20,306,603,120,250,300,000.000 0.24 9,344,586,221,272,920,000
0.5 23,827,174,747,604,500,000.000 0.25 10,356,580,556,651,700,000.000
0.6 25,616,987,065,590,600,000.000 0.26 11,306,545,743,815,400,000.000
0.7 26,019,650,299,264,200,000.000 0.27 12,198,874,162,987,500,000.000
0.8 25,505,996,735,498,200,000.000 0.28 13,038,343,269,265,900,000.000
0.9 24,596,287,878,924,500,000.000 0.29 13,829,659,729,680,700,000.000
(Sumber: Pengolahan Data)

Tabel 4. 7 Ukuran Kesalahan Data Perusahaan

ME -417262240.3
MAE 1802414298
SSE 201268590442981000000.0
MSE 5,919,664,424,793,570,000
SDE 2469625112
MPE -0.128732405
MAPE 0.572353099
(Sumber: Pengolahan Data)

Universitas Widyatama 7
 Sebelum Peramalan
13000
12000
11000
10000
9000
8000
7000
6000
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Gambar 4. 1 Diagram Scatter sebelum Peramalan Metode Brown Data Pesaing
(Sumber: Pengolahan Data)

Sesudah Peramalan
14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536

Forecast Demand

Gambar 4. 2 Diagram Scatter Hasil Peramalan Metode Brown Data Perusahaan

(Sumber: Pengolahan Data)

B. Data Pesaing
Peramalan dilakukan dengan empat metode, diantarnya DMA (Double Moving
Average), Regresi Linear, Brown dan Holt. Metode yang dipilih adalah yang
menghasilkan nilai MSE paling kecil, dan pada pengolahan data ini yang terpilih
adalah metode Brown dengan rincan sebagai berikut:

Tabel 4. 8 Nilai MSE Peramalan Data Pesaing

Metode MSE
DMA 2.12631E+19
Regresi Linier 1.74923E+22
Brown 4.23606E+18
Holt 2.26533E+19
(Sumber: Pengolahan Data)

Universitas Widyatama 8
 Hasil tersebut menunjukan data peramalan atau forecast yang akan digunakan pada
tahap selanjutnya yaitu disagregasi adalah data permalan metode Brown.

Tabel 4. 9 Perhitungan Metode Brown Data Pesaing

1
Periode Demand
S't S''t at bt m F(t+m) et Pe (%)
1 181,553,500,000 181,553,500,000 181,553,500,000
2 183,518,050,000 181,966,055,500 181,640,136,655
3 187,760,200,000 183,182,825,845 181,964,101,385 184,401,550,305 323,964,730 1 184,725,515,035 3,034,684,965 3,034,684,965 9,209,312,836,797,050,000 1.62 1.62
4 183,753,400,000 183,302,646,418 182,245,195,842 184,360,096,994 281,094,457 1 184,641,191,451 -887,791,451 887,791,451 788,173,660,468,685,000 -0.48 0.48
5 189,285,550,000 184,559,056,171 182,731,106,512 186,387,005,830 485,910,669 1 186,872,916,499 2,412,633,501 2,412,633,501 5,820,800,410,147,520,000 1.27 1.27
6 185,802,900,000 184,820,263,376 183,169,829,454 186,470,697,298 438,722,942 1 186,909,420,240 -1,106,520,240 1,106,520,240 1,224,387,041,529,660,000 -0.60 0.60
7 187,144,750,000 185,308,405,568 183,618,930,438 186,997,880,698 449,100,984 1 187,446,981,682 -302,231,682 302,231,682 91,343,989,604,549,100 -0.16 0.16
8 190,725,200,000 186,445,932,399 184,212,600,850 188,679,263,948 593,670,412 1 189,272,934,360 1,452,265,640 1,452,265,640 2,109,075,489,124,610,000 0.76 0.76
9 187,939,350,000 186,759,550,096 184,747,460,192 188,771,640,000 534,859,342 1 189,306,499,342 -1,367,149,342 1,367,149,342 1,869,097,323,331,030,000 -0.73 0.73
10 189,433,850,000 187,321,153,076 185,287,935,698 189,354,370,454 540,475,506 1 189,894,845,960 -460,995,960 460,995,960 212,517,275,136,322,000 -0.24 0.24
11 193,820,250,000 188,685,963,431 186,001,521,522 191,370,405,340 713,585,824 1 192,083,991,164 1,736,258,836 1,736,258,836 3,014,594,745,588,080,000 0.90 0.90
12 193,186,900,000 189,631,160,111 186,763,745,626 192,498,574,596 762,224,104 1 193,260,798,700 -73,898,700 73,898,700 5,461,017,861,690,000 -0.04 0.04
13 192,501,300,000 190,233,889,488 187,492,475,838 192,975,303,138 728,730,211 1 193,704,033,349 -1,202,733,349 1,202,733,349 1,446,567,508,796,760,000 -0.62 0.62
14 190,340,950,000 190,256,372,196 188,072,894,074 192,439,850,318 580,418,235 1 193,020,268,553 -2,679,318,553 2,679,318,553 7,178,747,908,450,010,000 -1.41 1.41
15 194,083,300,000 191,060,027,035 188,700,191,996 193,419,862,074 627,297,922 1 194,047,159,996 36,140,004 36,140,004 1,306,099,889,120,020 0.02 0.02
16 194,505,050,000 191,783,481,858 189,347,682,868 194,219,280,848 647,490,871 1 194,866,771,719 -361,721,719 361,721,719 130,842,601,996,315,000 -0.19 0.19
17 194,514,150,000 192,356,922,168 189,979,623,121 194,734,221,215 631,940,253 1 195,366,161,468 -852,011,468 852,011,468 725,923,541,603,515,000 -0.44 0.44
18 194,113,350,000 192,725,772,013 190,556,314,389 194,895,229,637 576,691,268 1 195,471,920,905 -1,358,570,905 1,358,570,905 1,845,714,903,912,520,000 -0.70 0.70
19 197,493,750,000 193,727,047,391 191,222,168,320 196,231,926,462 665,853,931 1 196,897,780,393 595,969,607 595,969,607 355,179,772,467,734,000 0.30 0.30
20 199,665,750,000 194,974,174,939 192,010,089,710 197,938,260,168 787,921,390 1 198,726,181,558 939,568,442 939,568,442 882,788,857,202,307,000 0.47 0.47
21 202,315,050,000 196,515,758,702 192,956,280,199 200,075,237,205 946,190,489 1 201,021,427,694 1,293,622,306 1,293,622,306 1,673,458,670,580,760,000 0.64 0.64
22 202,201,900,000 197,709,848,375 193,954,529,516 201,465,167,234 998,249,317 1 202,463,416,551 -261,516,551 261,516,551 68,390,906,446,935,600 -0.13 0.13
23 205,629,250,000 199,372,922,717 195,092,392,089 203,653,453,345 1,137,862,572 1 204,791,315,917 837,934,083 837,934,083 702,133,527,453,051,000 0.41 0.41
24 204,411,600,000 200,431,044,947 196,213,509,190 204,648,580,704 1,121,117,100 1 205,769,697,804 -1,358,097,804 1,358,097,804 1,844,429,645,229,620,000 -0.66 0.66
25 207,152,800,000 201,842,613,509 197,395,621,097 206,289,605,921 1,182,111,907 1 207,471,717,828 -318,917,828 318,917,828 101,708,581,016,238,000 -0.15 0.15
26 203,537,900,000 202,198,623,673 198,404,251,638 205,992,995,708 1,008,630,541 1 207,001,626,249 -3,463,726,249 3,463,726,249 11,997,399,528,011,600,000 -1.70 1.70
27 201,092,850,000 201,966,411,202 199,152,305,147 204,780,517,257 748,053,509 1 205,528,570,766 -4,435,720,766 4,435,720,766 19,675,618,713,923,600,000 -2.21 2.21
28 202,138,200,000 202,002,486,850 199,750,843,305 204,254,130,395 598,538,158 1 204,852,668,553 -2,714,468,553 2,714,468,553 7,368,339,525,225,910,000 -1.34 1.34
29 204,139,400,000 202,451,238,612 200,317,926,320 204,584,550,904 567,083,015 1 205,151,633,919 -1,012,233,919 1,012,233,919 1,024,617,506,774,100,000 -0.50 0.50
30 210,164,200,000 204,070,960,504 201,106,063,499 207,035,857,509 788,137,179 1 207,823,994,688 2,340,205,312 2,340,205,312 5,476,560,902,313,020,000 1.11 1.11
31 207,378,450,000 204,765,533,299 201,874,552,157 207,656,514,441 768,488,658 1 208,425,003,099 -1,046,553,099 1,046,553,099 1,095,273,389,026,500,000 -0.50 0.50
32 208,748,700,000 205,601,998,307 202,657,315,849 208,546,680,765 782,763,692 1 209,329,444,457 -580,744,457 580,744,457 337,264,124,336,225,000 -0.28 0.28
33 207,077,250,000 205,911,801,163 203,340,757,765 208,482,844,561 683,441,916 1 209,166,286,477 -2,089,036,477 2,089,036,477 4,364,073,402,236,570,000 -1.01 1.01
34 212,434,800,000 207,281,630,919 204,168,341,128 210,394,920,710 827,583,363 1 211,222,504,073 1,212,295,927 1,212,295,927 1,469,661,414,620,790,000 0.57 0.57
35 211,789,350,000 208,228,251,927 205,020,922,396 211,435,581,458 852,581,268 1 212,288,162,726 -498,812,726 498,812,726 248,814,135,619,551,000 -0.24 0.24
36 214,689,350,000 209,585,082,523 205,979,396,023 213,190,769,023 958,473,627 1 214,149,242,650 540,107,350 540,107,350 291,715,949,524,023,000 0.25 0.25
37 1 214,149,242,650
38 2 215,107,716,277
39 3 216,066,189,904
40 4 217,024,663,531
41 5 217,983,137,158
42 6 218,941,610,785
43 7 219,900,084,412
44 8 220,858,558,039
45 9 221,817,031,666
46 10 222,775,505,293
47 11 223,733,978,920
48 12 224,692,452,547
49 13 225,650,926,174
50 14 226,609,399,801
51 15 227,567,873,428
52 16 228,526,347,055
53 17 229,484,820,682
54 18 230,443,294,309
55 19 231,401,767,936
56 20 232,360,241,563
57 21 233,318,715,190
58 22 234,277,188,817
59 23 235,235,662,444
60 24 236,194,136,071
61 25 237,152,609,698
62 26 238,111,083,325
63 27 239,069,556,952
64 28 240,028,030,579
65 29 240,986,504,206
66 30 241,944,977,833
67 31 242,903,451,460
68 32 243,861,925,087
69 33 244,820,398,714
70 34 245,778,872,341
71 35 246,737,345,968
72 36 247,695,819,595
73 37 248,654,293,222
74 38 249,612,766,849
75 39 250,571,240,476
76 40 251,529,714,103
77 41 252,488,187,730
78 42 253,446,661,357
79 43 254,405,134,984
80 44 255,363,608,611
81 45 256,322,082,238
82 46 257,280,555,865
83 47 258,239,029,492
84 48 259,197,503,119
85 49 260,155,976,746
86 50 261,114,450,373
87 51 262,072,924,000
88 52 263,031,397,627
89 53 263,989,871,254
90 54 264,948,344,881
91 55 265,906,818,508
92 56 266,865,292,135
93 57 267,823,765,762
94 58 268,782,239,389
95 59 269,740,713,016
96 60 270,699,186,643
Jumlah -12,001,085,825.000 44,864,457,771.000 94,651,294,906,246,000,000.000 -6.005 22.648

(Sumber: Pengolahan Data)

Universitas Widyatama 9
Contoh Perhitungan:
1. S’t = α . Xt + (1 – ) . S’t
S’t2 = (0,21 x 183,518,050,000) + (1 – 0,21) x 181,966,055,500
=181,966,055,500
2. S”t = α . S’t + (1 – ) . S”t
S”t2 = (0,21 x 181,966,055,500) + (1 – 0,21) x 181,553,500,000
= 181,640,136,655
3. at = s’t + (s’t – s”t)
at1 = 183,182,825,845+ (183,182,825,845– 181,964,101,385)
= 184,401,550,305

4. 𝐛 (𝐬′ − 𝐬" )
𝐍−𝟏

2
bt1 (183 182 825 845 – 181 964 101 385 ) 323 964 730
3−1
5. F(t+m) = at + (bt . m)
F(t+m)1 =184,401,550,305 + (323 964 73 𝑥 1) = 184,725,515,035
6. et = Demand - F(t + m)
et1 = 187,760,200,000– 184,725,515,035= 3,034,684,965
7. (%) 𝐱𝟏 %
𝐃

3 034 684 965

Pe(%)1 x 100% 1.62%
187 760 200 000
8. Mean Error (ME)
∑ et −12 001 085 825.000
𝑀𝐸 −352973112.5
n 34
9. Mean Absolute Error (MAE)
∑ |et| 44 864 457 771.000
𝑀𝐴𝐸 1319542876
n 34
10. Sum of Square Error (SSE)

𝑆𝑆𝐸 ∑(et)2 144026060979016000000.0

11. Mean of Square Error (MSE)

𝑆𝑆𝐸 144026060979016000000.0
𝑀𝑆𝐸
n 34
4 236 060 617 029 880 000

Universitas Widyatama 10
12. Standard Deviation Error (SDE)

𝑆𝑆𝐸 144026060979016000000.0
𝑆𝐷𝐸 √ √ 2089120889
n−1 34 − 1

13. Mean Percentage Error (MPE)

∑ PE −6.005
𝑀𝑃𝐸 −0.171571043
n 34
14. Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE)
∑ |PE| 22.648
𝑀𝐴𝑃𝐸 0.68631656
n 34

Tabel 4. 10 Perhitungan Alpha Metode Brown Data Pesaing

α MSE
0.1 58,872,398,992,405,500,000.000
0.2 3,011,724,195,209,670,000.000
0.3 13,631,705,591,079,200,000.000
0.4 19,748,406,040,467,400,000.000
0.5 23,356,990,187,911,000,000.000
0.6 26,924,112,309,782,600,000.000
0.7 27,746,406,410,050,300,000.000
0.8 27,746,406,410,050,300,000.000
0.9 28,233,552,478,184,800,000.000
(Sumber: Pengolahan Data)
α MSE
0.21 4,236,060,617,029,880,000.000
0.22 5,468,976,320,182,290,000.000
0.23 6,676,512,991,408,390,000.000
0.24 7,839,543,813,132,630,000.000
0.25 8,948,262,014,645,400,000.000
0.26 9,998,638,484,946,330,000.000
0.27 10,990,147,138,844,300,000.000
0.28 11,924,309,101,978,300,000.000
0.29 12,803,767,257,417,400,000.000

Tabel 4. 11 Ukuran Kesalahan Data Pesaing

ME -352973112.5
MAE 1319542876
SSE 144026060979016000000.0
MSE 4,236,060,617,029,880,000
SDE 2089120889
MPE -0.171571043
MAPE 0.68631656
(Sumber: Pengolahan Data)

Universitas Widyatama 11
 Sebelum Peramalan
14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Gambar 4. 3 Diagram Scatter sebelum Peramalan Metode Brown Data Pesaing

(Sumber: Pengolahan Data)

Setelah Peramalan
14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536

Forecast Demand

Gambar 4. 4 Diagram Scatter Hasil Peramalan Metode Brown Data Pesaing

(Sumber: Pengolahan Data)

Universitas Widyatama 12
 4.2.3 Disagregasi
Disagregasi dilakukan dengan mengolah data agregasi yang sudah dicari demand
forecastnya, Disagregasi menghasilkan data jumah unit produk Jetrike maupun
Otoped secara terpisah. Berikut hasil disagregasi Data Perusahaan dan Data
Pesaing:
1. Diagregasi Data Perusahaan
Tabel 4. 12 Hasil Disagregasi
Data perusahaan
Jetrike 0.84 Otopet 0.16
Periode Demand Disagregasi Unit Periode Demand Disagregasi Unit
1 339,692,333,548 285,341,560,180 124,062 1 339,692,333,548 54,350,773,368 155,288
2 340,708,445,281 286,195,094,036 124,433 2 340,708,445,281 54,513,351,245 155,753
3 341,724,557,014 287,048,627,892 124,804 3 341,724,557,014 54,675,929,122 156,217
4 342,740,668,747 287,902,161,747 125,175 4 342,740,668,747 54,838,507,000 156,682
5 343,756,780,480 288,755,695,603 125,546 5 343,756,780,480 55,001,084,877 157,146
6 344,772,892,213 289,609,229,459 125,918 6 344,772,892,213 55,163,662,754 157,611
7 345,789,003,946 290,462,763,315 126,289 7 345,789,003,946 55,326,240,631 158,075
8 346,805,115,679 291,316,297,170 126,660 8 346,805,115,679 55,488,818,509 158,540
9 347,821,227,412 292,169,831,026 127,031 9 347,821,227,412 55,651,396,386 159,004
10 348,837,339,145 293,023,364,882 127,402 10 348,837,339,145 55,813,974,263 159,469
11 349,853,450,878 293,876,898,738 127,773 11 349,853,450,878 55,976,552,140 159,934
12 350,869,562,611 294,730,432,593 128,144 12 350,869,562,611 56,139,130,018 160,398
13 351,885,674,344 295,583,966,449 128,515 13 351,885,674,344 56,301,707,895 160,863
14 352,901,786,077 296,437,500,305 128,886 14 352,901,786,077 56,464,285,772 161,327
15 353,917,897,810 297,291,034,160 129,257 15 353,917,897,810 56,626,863,650 161,792
16 354,934,009,543 298,144,568,016 129,629 16 354,934,009,543 56,789,441,527 162,256
17 355,950,121,276 298,998,101,872 130,000 17 355,950,121,276 56,952,019,404 162,721
18 356,966,233,009 299,851,635,728 130,371 18 356,966,233,009 57,114,597,281 163,185
19 357,982,344,742 300,705,169,583 130,742 19 357,982,344,742 57,277,175,159 163,650
20 358,998,456,475 301,558,703,439 131,113 20 358,998,456,475 57,439,753,036 164,114
21 360,014,568,208 302,412,237,295 131,484 21 360,014,568,208 57,602,330,913 164,579
22 361,030,679,941 303,265,771,150 131,855 22 361,030,679,941 57,764,908,791 165,043
23 362,046,791,674 304,119,305,006 132,226 23 362,046,791,674 57,927,486,668 165,508
24 363,062,903,407 304,972,838,862 132,597 24 363,062,903,407 58,090,064,545 165,972
25 364,079,015,140 305,826,372,718 132,968 25 364,079,015,140 58,252,642,422 166,437
26 365,095,126,873 306,679,906,573 133,340 26 365,095,126,873 58,415,220,300 166,901
27 366,111,238,606 307,533,440,429 133,711 27 366,111,238,606 58,577,798,177 167,366
28 367,127,350,339 308,386,974,285 134,082 28 367,127,350,339 58,740,376,054 167,830
29 368,143,462,072 309,240,508,140 134,453 29 368,143,462,072 58,902,953,932 168,295
30 369,159,573,805 310,094,041,996 134,824 30 369,159,573,805 59,065,531,809 168,759
31 370,175,685,538 310,947,575,852 135,195 31 370,175,685,538 59,228,109,686 169,224
32 371,191,797,271 311,801,109,708 135,566 32 371,191,797,271 59,390,687,563 169,688
33 372,207,909,004 312,654,643,563 135,937 33 372,207,909,004 59,553,265,441 170,153
34 373,224,020,737 313,508,177,419 136,308 34 373,224,020,737 59,715,843,318 170,617
35 374,240,132,470 314,361,711,275 136,680 35 374,240,132,470 59,878,421,195 171,082
36 375,256,244,203 315,215,245,131 137,051 36 375,256,244,203 60,040,999,072 171,546
37 376,272,355,936 316,068,778,986 137,422 37 376,272,355,936 60,203,576,950 172,011
38 377,288,467,669 316,922,312,842 137,793 38 377,288,467,669 60,366,154,827 172,475
39 378,304,579,402 317,775,846,698 138,164 39 378,304,579,402 60,528,732,704 172,940
40 379,320,691,135 318,629,380,553 138,535 40 379,320,691,135 60,691,310,582 173,404
41 380,336,802,868 319,482,914,409 138,906 41 380,336,802,868 60,853,888,459 173,869
42 381,352,914,601 320,336,448,265 139,277 42 381,352,914,601 61,016,466,336 174,333
43 382,369,026,334 321,189,982,121 139,648 43 382,369,026,334 61,179,044,213 174,798
44 383,385,138,067 322,043,515,976 140,019 44 383,385,138,067 61,341,622,091 175,262
45 384,401,249,800 322,897,049,832 140,391 45 384,401,249,800 61,504,199,968 175,727
46 385,417,361,533 323,750,583,688 140,762 46 385,417,361,533 61,666,777,845 176,191
47 386,433,473,266 324,604,117,543 141,133 47 386,433,473,266 61,829,355,723 176,656
48 387,449,584,999 325,457,651,399 141,504 48 387,449,584,999 61,991,933,600 177,120
49 388,465,696,732 326,311,185,255 141,875 49 388,465,696,732 62,154,511,477 177,585
50 389,481,808,465 327,164,719,111 142,246 50 389,481,808,465 62,317,089,354 178,049
51 390,497,920,198 328,018,252,966 142,617 51 390,497,920,198 62,479,667,232 178,514
52 391,514,031,931 328,871,786,822 142,988 52 391,514,031,931 62,642,245,109 178,978
53 392,530,143,664 329,725,320,678 143,359 53 392,530,143,664 62,804,822,986 179,443
54 393,546,255,397 330,578,854,533 143,730 54 393,546,255,397 62,967,400,864 179,907
55 394,562,367,130 331,432,388,389 144,102 55 394,562,367,130 63,129,978,741 180,372
56 395,578,478,863 332,285,922,245 144,473 56 395,578,478,863 63,292,556,618 180,836
57 396,594,590,596 333,139,456,101 144,844 57 396,594,590,596 63,455,134,495 181,301
58 397,610,702,329 333,992,989,956 145,215 58 397,610,702,329 63,617,712,373 181,765
59 398,626,814,062 334,846,523,812 145,586 59 398,626,814,062 63,780,290,250 182,230
60 399,642,925,795 335,700,057,668 145,957 60 399,642,925,795 63,942,868,127 182,694

(Sumber: Pengolahan Data)

Universitas Widyatama 13
Contoh Perhitungan:
Harga Jetrike = Rp2.300.000,-
Harga Otoped = Rp350.000,-
Market Share 20%

1. Diasagregasi Jetrike pada Data Perusahaan Periode 1 =

Demand1 × Proporsi Jetrike = 339,692,333,548 x 0,84 = 285,341,560,180
2. Jumlah Unit Produk Jetrike Data Perusahaan Periode 1 =
Disagregasi1 285 341 560 180
124 062 𝑢𝑛𝑖𝑡
Harga 𝐽𝑒𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑘𝑒 2.300.000
3. Diasagregasi Otoped pada Data Perusahaan Periode 1 =
Demand1 × Proporsi Otoped = 339,692,333,548 x 0,16 = 54,350,773,368
4. Jumlah Unit Produk Otoped Data Perusahaan Periode 1 =
Disagregasi1 54 350 773 368
155 288 𝑢𝑛𝑖𝑡
Harga 𝐽𝑒𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑘𝑒 350.000

Universitas Widyatama 14
2. Disagregasi Data Pesaing
Tabel 4. 13 Hasil Disagregasi Perusahaan Pesaing
Data Pesaing
Jetrike 0.84 Otopet 0.16
Periode Demand Disagregasi Unit Periode Demand Disagregasi Unit
1 214,149,242,650 179,885,363,826 78,212 1 214,149,242,650 34,263,878,824 97,897
2 215,107,716,277 180,690,481,673 78,562 2 215,107,716,277 34,417,234,604 98,335
3 216,066,189,904 181,495,599,519 78,912 3 216,066,189,904 34,570,590,385 98,774
4 217,024,663,531 182,300,717,366 79,262 4 217,024,663,531 34,723,946,165 99,212
5 217,983,137,158 183,105,835,213 79,612 5 217,983,137,158 34,877,301,945 99,650
6 218,941,610,785 183,910,953,059 79,962 6 218,941,610,785 35,030,657,726 100,088
7 219,900,084,412 184,716,070,906 80,312 7 219,900,084,412 35,184,013,506 100,526
8 220,858,558,039 185,521,188,753 80,662 8 220,858,558,039 35,337,369,286 100,964
9 221,817,031,666 186,326,306,599 81,012 9 221,817,031,666 35,490,725,067 101,403
10 222,775,505,293 187,131,424,446 81,362 10 222,775,505,293 35,644,080,847 101,841
11 223,733,978,920 187,936,542,293 81,712 11 223,733,978,920 35,797,436,627 102,279
12 224,692,452,547 188,741,660,139 82,062 12 224,692,452,547 35,950,792,408 102,717
13 225,650,926,174 189,546,777,986 82,412 13 225,650,926,174 36,104,148,188 103,155
14 226,609,399,801 190,351,895,833 82,762 14 226,609,399,801 36,257,503,968 103,593
15 227,567,873,428 191,157,013,680 83,112 15 227,567,873,428 36,410,859,748 104,032
16 228,526,347,055 191,962,131,526 83,462 16 228,526,347,055 36,564,215,529 104,470
17 229,484,820,682 192,767,249,373 83,812 17 229,484,820,682 36,717,571,309 104,908
18 230,443,294,309 193,572,367,220 84,162 18 230,443,294,309 36,870,927,089 105,346
19 231,401,767,936 194,377,485,066 84,512 19 231,401,767,936 37,024,282,870 105,784
20 232,360,241,563 195,182,602,913 84,863 20 232,360,241,563 37,177,638,650 106,222
21 233,318,715,190 195,987,720,760 85,213 21 233,318,715,190 37,330,994,430 106,660
22 234,277,188,817 196,792,838,606 85,563 22 234,277,188,817 37,484,350,211 107,099
23 235,235,662,444 197,597,956,453 85,913 23 235,235,662,444 37,637,705,991 107,537
24 236,194,136,071 198,403,074,300 86,263 24 236,194,136,071 37,791,061,771 107,975
25 237,152,609,698 199,208,192,146 86,613 25 237,152,609,698 37,944,417,552 108,413
26 238,111,083,325 200,013,309,993 86,963 26 238,111,083,325 38,097,773,332 108,851
27 239,069,556,952 200,818,427,840 87,313 27 239,069,556,952 38,251,129,112 109,289
28 240,028,030,579 201,623,545,686 87,663 28 240,028,030,579 38,404,484,893 109,728
29 240,986,504,206 202,428,663,533 88,013 29 240,986,504,206 38,557,840,673 110,166
30 241,944,977,833 203,233,781,380 88,363 30 241,944,977,833 38,711,196,453 110,604
31 242,903,451,460 204,038,899,226 88,713 31 242,903,451,460 38,864,552,234 111,042
32 243,861,925,087 204,844,017,073 89,063 32 243,861,925,087 39,017,908,014 111,480
33 244,820,398,714 205,649,134,920 89,413 33 244,820,398,714 39,171,263,794 111,918
34 245,778,872,341 206,454,252,766 89,763 34 245,778,872,341 39,324,619,575 112,357
35 246,737,345,968 207,259,370,613 90,113 35 246,737,345,968 39,477,975,355 112,795
36 247,695,819,595 208,064,488,460 90,463 36 247,695,819,595 39,631,331,135 113,233
37 248,654,293,222 208,869,606,306 90,813 37 248,654,293,222 39,784,686,916 113,671
38 249,612,766,849 209,674,724,153 91,163 38 249,612,766,849 39,938,042,696 114,109
39 250,571,240,476 210,479,842,000 91,513 39 250,571,240,476 40,091,398,476 114,547
40 251,529,714,103 211,284,959,847 91,864 40 251,529,714,103 40,244,754,256 114,986
41 252,488,187,730 212,090,077,693 92,214 41 252,488,187,730 40,398,110,037 115,424
42 253,446,661,357 212,895,195,540 92,564 42 253,446,661,357 40,551,465,817 115,862
43 254,405,134,984 213,700,313,387 92,914 43 254,405,134,984 40,704,821,597 116,300
44 255,363,608,611 214,505,431,233 93,264 44 255,363,608,611 40,858,177,378 116,738
45 256,322,082,238 215,310,549,080 93,614 45 256,322,082,238 41,011,533,158 117,176
46 257,280,555,865 216,115,666,927 93,964 46 257,280,555,865 41,164,888,938 117,614
47 258,239,029,492 216,920,784,773 94,314 47 258,239,029,492 41,318,244,719 118,053
48 259,197,503,119 217,725,902,620 94,664 48 259,197,503,119 41,471,600,499 118,491
49 260,155,976,746 218,531,020,467 95,014 49 260,155,976,746 41,624,956,279 118,929
50 261,114,450,373 219,336,138,313 95,364 50 261,114,450,373 41,778,312,060 119,367
51 262,072,924,000 220,141,256,160 95,714 51 262,072,924,000 41,931,667,840 119,805
52 263,031,397,627 220,946,374,007 96,064 52 263,031,397,627 42,085,023,620 120,243
53 263,989,871,254 221,751,491,853 96,414 53 263,989,871,254 42,238,379,401 120,682
54 264,948,344,881 222,556,609,700 96,764 54 264,948,344,881 42,391,735,181 121,120
55 265,906,818,508 223,361,727,547 97,114 55 265,906,818,508 42,545,090,961 121,558
56 266,865,292,135 224,166,845,393 97,464 56 266,865,292,135 42,698,446,742 121,996
57 267,823,765,762 224,971,963,240 97,814 57 267,823,765,762 42,851,802,522 122,434
58 268,782,239,389 225,777,081,087 98,164 58 268,782,239,389 43,005,158,302 122,872
59 269,740,713,016 226,582,198,933 98,514 59 269,740,713,016 43,158,514,083 123,311
60 270,699,186,643 227,387,316,780 98,865 60 270,699,186,643 43,311,869,863 123,749

(Sumber: Pengolahan Data)

Universitas Widyatama 15
Contoh Perhitungan:
Harga Jetrike = Rp2.300.000,-
Harga Otoped = Rp350.000,-
Market Share 20%

1. Diasagregasi Jetrike pada Data Pesaing Periode 1 =

Demand1 × Proporsi Jetrike = 214,149,242,650 x 0,84 = 179,885,363,826
2. Jumlah Unit Produk Jetrike Data Pesaing Periode 1 =
Disagregasi1 179 885 363 826
78 212 𝑢𝑛𝑖𝑡
Harga 𝐽𝑒𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑘𝑒 2.300.000
3. Diasagregasi Otoped pada Data Perusahaan Periode 1 =
Demand1 × Proporsi Otoped = 214,149,242,650 x 0,16 = 34,263,878,824
4. Jumlah Unit Produk Otoped Data Perusahaan Periode 1 =
Disagregasi1 34 263 878 824
97 897 𝑢𝑛𝑖𝑡
Harga 𝐽𝑒𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑘𝑒 350.000

4.2.4 Nilai KPT (Kapasitas Produksi Terpasang per Jam)

Kapasitas Produksi Terpasang per jam diramalkan pada pengolahan data ini untuk
5 tahun kedepan, sehingga data disagregasi dalam satuan periode bulan perlu
diubah kedalah satuan periode tahun dengan menjumpahkan setiap 12 bulan nilai
forecastnya sampai diperoleh data 5 tahun. Nilai KPT terbesar di antara 5 tahun
tersebutlah yang akan dipilih.

Proporsi produk Jetrike = 0,84

Proporsi produk Otoped = 0,16
Harga Jetrike = Rp2.300.000,-
Harga Otoped = Rp350.000,-
Market Share 20%
Jumlah Hari dalam Setahun = 260 hari
Jam Kerja dalam Sehari = 8 jam
Jumlah Jam dalan Setahun = 260 × 8 = 2080 jam

Universitas Widyatama 16
1. KPT (Kapasitas Produksi Terpasang per Jam) Produk Jetrike
Tabel 4. 14 KPT Produk Jetrike
KPT Jetrike 20%
Kapasitas
Tahun Demand Demand Pesaing Market Potensial KPT
Produksi
2017 1,513,237 961,644 551,593 110,319 54
2018 1,566,675 1,012,049 554,626 110,926 54
2019 1,620,115 1,062,456 557,659 111,532 54
2020 1,673,554 1,112,865 560,689 112,138 54
2021 1,726,992 1,163,269 563,723 112,745 55
(Sumber: Pengolahan Data)

Contoh Perhitungan:
1. Demand Perusahaan
= Demand Disagregasi Perusahaan Januari 2017 + … + Demand
Disagregasi Perusahaan Desember 2017
=124,062 + 124,433+…..+128,144 = 1,513,237
2. Demand Pesaing Tahun 2017
= Demand Disagregasi Pesaing Januari 2017 + … + Demand Disagregasi
Pesaing Desember 2017
=78,212+78,562+…..+ 82,062 = 961,644
3. Market Potensial
= Demand Perusahaan – Demand Pesaing
= 1,513,237 - 961,644 = 551,593
4. Kapasitas Produksi
Market Potensial x 𝑀𝑎𝑟𝑘𝑒𝑡 𝑆ℎ𝑎𝑟𝑒 551 593l 𝑥 20 110 319 𝑢𝑛𝑖𝑡

5. KPT (Kapasitas Produksi per Jam)

Kapasitas Produksi 110 31
54 𝑢𝑛𝑖𝑡/𝑗𝑎𝑚
Jumlah Jam Kerja dalam Setahun 2080

Universitas Widyatama 17
 2. KPT (Kapasitas Produksi Terpasang per Jam) Produk Otoped

Tabel 4. 15 KPT Produk Otoped

KPT Otopet 20%
Kapasitas
Tahun Demand Demand Pesaing Market Potensial KPT
Produksi
2017 1,894,117 1,203,686 690,431 138,087 67
2018 1,961,010 1,266,781 694,229 138,846 67
2019 2,027,898 1,329,876 698,022 139,605 68
2020 2,094,786 1,392,971 701,815 140,363 68
2021 2,161,674 1,456,066 705,608 141,122 68
(Sumber: Pengolahan Data)

Contoh Perhitungan:
1. Demand Perusahaan
= Demand Disagregasi Perusahaan Januari 2017 + … + Demand
Disagregasi Perusahaan Desember 2017
= 155,288 +155,753+…..+160,398 =1,894,117
2. Demand Pesaing Tahun 2017
= Demand Disagregasi Pesaing Januari 2017 + … + Demand Disagregasi
Pesaing Desember 2017
= 97,897+98,335+….+102,717 = 1,203,686
3. Market Potensial
= Demand Perusahaan – Demand Pesaing
= 1,894,117 - 1,203,686 = 690,431
4. Kapasitas Produksi
Market Potensial x 𝑀𝑎𝑟𝑘𝑒𝑡 𝑆ℎ𝑎𝑟𝑒 690 431 x 20 138 087 𝑢𝑛𝑖𝑡

5. KPT (Kapasitas Produksi per Jam)

Kapasitas Produksi 138 087
67 𝑢𝑛𝑖𝑡/𝑗𝑎𝑚
Jumlah Jam Kerja dalam Setahun 2080

Universitas Widyatama 18