presente RENEE thee Transitions from Authoritarian Rule Tentative Conclusions about Uncertain Democracies by Guillermo O'Donnell and Philippe C. Schmitter The Johns Hopkins University Press Baltimore and London:1©1986-The Woodrow Wis Intemational Center for Scholars llrightsreserved Printed in he Unie States of Americn ‘The ohns Hopkins Univesity Press, 701 West 40th See, Baltimore, Maryland 21211 “Thelohns Hopkin Press, London e ‘The paper sed in this publication ects the minimum requirements of Armerican National Standard fr Information Seienees— Permanence of Peper for Printed Library Materials, ANSIZ39 481984, Lira of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data (Donnell, Guillermo A “Tansition om suthertarian ale, Tentative conclisions about anerain democracies, Papers riginlly commision fora conerene sponsored by the [Lata Amerian Program ofthe Woodrow Wilson International Cater forSeholars between 1979 and 198), Biligephy:p. Includes inden 1 Representative gverament and representation —Case sodies 1. Authoritaransm—Casestadies. 5. Demoeraey— (Casestdies. 1 Schmitt, PilppeC. TL Woodrow Wilsos inter: ‘ational Center or Sobor, Lain American Frogram. FIOS1.0317 1985 321.09 searia SBNO$018-26829 jp > alk paper Contents Foreword Abraham P Lowenthal « vii | Preface # xi | |. Intioducing Uncertainty * 3 . Defining Some Concepts and Exposing Some Assumptions) * 6 Opening {and Undermining) Authoritarian Regimes * 15 ‘Negotiating {and Renegotiating} Pacts * 37 Resurrecting Civil Society (and Restructuring Public Space) * 48 ‘Convoking Elections {and Provoking Parties) * 57 ‘Concluding (but Not Capitulating) with a Metaphor * 65 Notes #73 Index + 79)ioe ‘The present volume deals with transitions from certain authoritarianregimies toward anuncertain “something else." That''something” canbe the instaura- ton of a political democracy or the restoration of a new, and possibly more severe, form of suthoritarian rule. The outcome can also be simply confusion, that is, the rotation in power of successive governments which fail to provide any enduring or predictable solution to the problem of institutionslizing polit- ical power. Transitions cen also develop into widespread, violent confronta- tions, eventually giving way torevolutionary regimes which promote changes ‘going fer beyond the political realm, ‘The contributors to this project have approached their respective tasks from perspectives which reflect their own values and preoccupations, as well, asthe often distinctive characteristics of the countries and issues that they ¥1e ‘confronting. We have respected this diversity, regarded it as desirable, and tried 10 leam from it. Nevertheless, in our coordination ofthe project we have tried to eocentuate three general and shared themes, which we believe are sufficient to ensure as reasonable a degree of convergence ss is warranted by the considerable variety of empirical material and the paucity of prior theoreti- ceal guidelines. We did not have at the beginning, nor do we have at the end of this lengthy collective endeavor, a “theory” to test or to apply to the case studies and thematic essays in these volumes. ‘The first general and shared theme isnormative, namely, thatthe instaura- ‘ion and eventual consolidation of political democracy constitutes per se a esirable goal. Some authors may have been more sensitive than others to the trade-offs that this may imply in terms of forgone or deferred opportunities for _gzeater social justice and economic equality, but we all agreed that the estab- lishment of certain rules of regular, formalized political competition deserved priority attention by scholars and practitioners, “The second theme, toa certain extent a corollary of the first, involves an effort to capture the extraordinary uncertainty of the transition, with its ‘numerous surprises and difficult dilemmas. Few moments pose such agoniz~ ‘ng choices and responsibilities, ethical as well as political. If we ever have the temerity to formulate a theory of such processes, it would have to bea chapter in a much larger inquiry into the problem of "‘underdetermined” social cchange, of large-scale transformations which occur when there are insuffi- cient structural or behavioral parameters to guide and predict the outcome. Such a theory would have to inchude elements of accident and unpredictabil- ity, of eracial decisions taken in a hurry with very inadequate information, of actors facing irresolvable ethical dilemmas and ideological confusions, of éa- 3