| \ uy SEISMIC HAZARD AND | | RISK ANALYSIS | ! ‘| [| 4MNo-1 MNoO2 MNO-s MNo-# Mno-s MNO6 MNO-7 Engineering MNO. MNo-9 OKIGINAL MONOGHAPH SERI Engineering Monographs 08 Earthquake Citra ‘Stuetal Dean, and Strong Motion Records Coordinating Editor: Mibran S. Agbabian Reading and Interpreting trong Motion decelerogrant, by Donald E- Hudson, 1979 Dyromies of Sirnctres, A Primer by Anil K. Chopra, 1982 -arthquake Spectra and Design by Natbon M. ‘ewnskt Wiliam 3 Hall 1982 Eorthquake Design Criteria, by George W. Hovsner find Pav C. Jennings, 1982 Ground Motions and Sol Liguafacton During ‘Earthuates by H Boog Seed ayd LM Ids, 1983, Seif Bpign es ond Procedures by fen Bere 183 Garoe pan | An djredveion tothe Selon ofthe Unked Sos. a ‘Palgeeen 1983 i deep Snnipsoggauseuins PR eet aneous Eatiuake gineering Tonics ‘Seinmie Design with Supplemental Energy Dissipation Doce, by Reber D. Hansoa and Tsu T- Soong 2001 Fundamentals of Seonie Protection fr Bridges, ty Mar Yashinsky and M_. Karena, 2003, MNO-10_ Seismic Hazard and Rik Analysis, by Robin K McGuire, 2001 Te gh easy Sa Vases 6b 9 13885 ph Jb. SEISMIC HAZARD AND RISK ANALYSIS by ROBIN K, McGUIRE Risk Engineering, Ine Boulder, Colorado Ei Mal go tay oa Vrses SEA aihat 13836 118 “Tis monograph was sponsred by he Earthquake Enpneving Reseach Ise a EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING RESEARCILINSTITUTExen prin of eect adi pubishing scales | EER approves monograph subjects indiduly asthe opps ‘The present monograph on seismic hazard ad risk analysis ‘be isd ofthe new sees, Technical nical view wa provided for EER by Thala Anagos, Walter Arahat, and Wiliam Holmes, Wraps T Howes ‘Guntn, Moveanart Conners Februsy 2008 | “ PREFACE “This monograph is intended as a general ntoction to meth uso same hazard nd ria alysis Perbap you are studying he farthacienees or earthquake engineering and wish osudy how your feldcancontibae vo reducing earquake losses. Perhaps you have ‘been asked to provide inp info a probable sity ols site or Fosiiy, and yo wish to sndestand how your sept will nduence the rents, Perk you ae reviewing a probabilistic study of se mnie haztds or vss and you wish some adetionl background on ‘What cogtiites «complete study. Or pethaps you steunderakans Study of seismic hazard and risk yourself and you wish o bull on ‘xpetence from proviou studies hnve tied ta show examples and {Ne guidance frail these potetial we. {sume tat you know the elements of probability theory snd are comfortable with probebilty density factions, eumolave de ‘bution function, and conditional drtsbutions. Otherwise, the Sremany standard texts avaiable, but would recommend using one ‘hats weten for engineers, noe mathematicians, an example is Ben jin tnd Comells Probability, Statistics and Dectsion for Chil Engineers (1970). In any eat, the probability theory in his mono tgp is at very complex, and you can skip the dtl Wiout any {oar of general understanding { sasime azo that you are faraliar ‘wih seismology, mapnitide definitions (andthe dferece beween fathgoake magnitude and intensity), and represetations of srong {ground motion (an parila, the response spectrum). For futher Esckgsound in these eas, Charles Rchter's cassie Elementary Ses mology (1958) and Bsuce Bats Earthquakes (1993) are good rete ‘hoes fr asimological concepts, and BERT publications parti Innys recent volumes of Barihguake Spectra~provide good mate ‘ala tong ground mation and struts response vt