Absolute

Absolute Error Absolute Error Error

Month Demand (kg) MA(3) (MA(3)) ES(α=0.2) (ES(α=0.2)) ES(α=0.1) (ES(α=0.1))
1 1200 1200 1200
2 1250 1200 1200
3 1050 1210 1205
4 1900 1166.667 733.333333333 1178 722 1189.5 710.5
5 1800 1400 400 1322.4 477.6 1260.55 539.45
6 1700 1583.333 116.666666667 1417.92 282.08 1314.495 385.505
7 1600 1800 200 1474.336 125.664 1353.046 246.9545
8 2000 1700 300 1499.469 500.5312 1377.741 622.25905
9 1900 1766.667 133.333333333 1599.575 300.42496 1439.967 460.033145
10 2100 1833.333 266.666666667 1659.66 440.339968 1485.97 614.029831
11 1500 2000 500 1747.728 247.7280256 1547.373 47.3731526
12 1450 1833.333 383.333333333 1698.182 248.18242048 1542.636 92.6358373
MAD 337.037037037 371.616730453 413.193391
 Absolute Error
ES(α=0.5) (ES(α=0.5))
1200
1200
1225
1137.5 762.5
1518.75 281.25
1659.375 40.625
1679.688 79.6875
1639.844 360.15625
1819.922 80.078125
1859.961 240.0390625
1979.98 479.98046875
1739.99 289.990234375
290.478515625
Week Demand MA(3) MA(6) ES(0.2)
1 2 2
2 4 2
3 6 2.4
4 8 4 3.12
5 10 6 4.096 30
6 12 8 5.2768
7 14 10 7 6.62144 25
8 16 12 9 8.097152
9 18 14 11 9.677722 20
10 20 16 13 11.34218
11 22 18 15 13.07374 15
12 24 20 17 14.85899
10

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
 Demand
MA(3)
MA(6)
ES(0.2)

5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Month Demand S G F
1 2 2 2
2 4 4 2 4
3 6 6 2 6
4 8 8 2 8
5 10 10 2 10
6 12 12 2 12 30
7 14 14 2 14
8 16 16 2 16 25
9 18 18 2 18
10 20 20 2 20 20
11 22 22 2 22
12 24 24 2 24 15

10

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
 Demand
Holt

5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Month Demand S G c c(normalized) F
1 4 0.48 0.48
2 2 0.24 0.24
3 5 0.6 0.6
4 8 0.96 0.96
5 11 1.32 1.32
6 13 1.56 1.56
7 18 2.16 2.16
8 15 1.8 1.8
9 9 1.08 1.08
10 6 0.72 0.72
11 5 0.6 0.6
12 4 8.333333 0 0.48 0.48
13 5 8.541667 0.020833 0.490537 0.4872090605 4
14 4 9.372917 0.101875 0.258676 0.2569214364 2.055
15 7 9.693979 0.123794 0.61221 0.6080568819 5.684875
16 7 9.565162 0.098533 0.937182 0.9308249215 9.425062
17 15 9.833689 0.115532 1.340537 1.3314434043 12.75608
18 17 10.04404 0.125014 1.573255 1.5625824816 15.52079
19 24 10.26326 0.134435 2.177844 2.1630705041 21.96516
20 18 10.35793 0.130458 1.79378 1.7816119431 18.71585
21 12 10.55066 0.136685 1.085737 1.0783719536 11.32746
22 7 10.59083 0.127034 0.714095 0.7092508899 7.694887
23 8 10.97941 0.153189 0.612864 0.6087063268 6.430719
24 6 11.26934 0.166863 0.485242 0.4819501962 5.343648
25 5.571822
26 5.653119

12.08196
30

25

20

15 Demand
Winter's
10

0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
 D F SE AD
1 1200 1200 0 0
2 1250 1200 2500 50
3 1050 1229.29 32145.06 179.2904
4 1900 1124.261 601771.7 775.7394
5 1800 1578.695 48975.74 221.3046
6 1700 1708.338 69.51421 8.337518
7 1600 1703.453 10702.59 103.4533
8 2000 1642.849 127556.5 357.1505
9 1900 1852.071 2297.159 47.92868
10 2100 1880.148 48334.75 219.8517
11 1500 2008.939 259019.2 508.9393
12 1450 1710.798 68015.76 260.7983

MSE 100115.7 227.7328 MAD

ES(α=) 0.585809