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Time Magazine April 25 2016 USA
Time Magazine April 25 2016 USA
You owe
42,998.12
$
That’s what every American man,
woman and child would need to pay
to erase the $13.9 trillion U.S. debt
Make America Solvent Again
By James Grant
time.com
At Home Above the World
Spend a year inside the International Space Station with Scott Kelly in
this all-new Special Edition as he chronicles his historic year in space.
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3
From the Editor
A debt we all
must pay
IT IS ALWAYS TEMPTING TO COVER PRESIDEN-
tial campaigns as theater or sport, especially in a
year when the performances have been so lam-
boyant. But elections have consequences, and
even though candidates’ positions have a way of
evolving once they are in oice, a campaign is a
chance to assign weight to the challenges America
faces. In recent issues we’ve done that by explor-
ing the value of free trade and the shifting tension
between privacy and security.
For this issue we invited Jim Grant, editor of
Grant’s Interest Rate Observer and a wise economic
analyst, to explain one of the most seemingly in-
comprehensible numbers around: the $13.9 trillion
in debt the U.S. government is carrying on the na- NOW PLAYING
tional credit card. To help put that amount in per- New series
spective, we took the unusual step of customizing TIME Digital is now using video animation to answer some
our cover for each of our subscribers. (As a result, of today’s most complicated questions. Among them: Should
we’ve printed 2,949,767 diferent covers—which Americans fear North Korea’s nuclear capabilities? (above)
means that if you are a subscriber, you are hold- and How does a contested political convention really work?
ing something of a collector’s item.) As we mark Watch the irst installment at time.com/Nuclear-NK
tax day, which this year falls on April 18, it’s ap-
propriate to remember, as Jim points out, that the
$42,998.12 share of federal debt for each and every
American ultimately represents a form of deferred
BONUS
tax that must one day be paid. TIME
How far of is the reckoning? There was some POLITICS
progress last year when the deicit clocked in at
$405 billion, the lowest since 2008. But eight years
on from the inancial meltdown, the cycle that once Subscribe
provided reassurance—in which the U.S. ran up to TIME’s
G I B B S : P E T E R H A PA K F O R T I M E ; C A N YO N : F R A N K S C H E R S C H E L— T H E L I F E P I C T U R E C O L L E C T I O N /G E T T Y I M A G E S
free politics
its debt for wars or crises and then pared it back newsletter and
during boom times—now seems to be broken. get exclusive
With refreshing candor and clarity, Jim lays out the news and
political and policy decisions that brought insights from the NOW ON LIFE.COM In September 1947,
us to this point and what it would take 2016 campaign a Life feature on the Grand Canyon cited its
sent straight 500,000 annual visitors. Today that number
to chart a path to solvency. “The debt’s to your inbox. has grown to 5 million. Check out the stunning
nobody’s favorite subject,” Jim says. For more, visit color images from the original story, plus
“It’s like bad news from your mutual time.com/email several that never appeared in print, at
fund. You can hardly bear to open the time.com/life
envelope to look at the numbers—but
TALK TO US
you somehow feel better after you do ▽ ▽
inally confront them.” SEND AN EMAIL: FOLLOW US:
letters@time.com facebook.com/time
Please do not send attachments @time (Twitter and Instagram)
Letters should include the writer’s full name, address and home
telephone and may be edited for purposes of clarity and space
TIMES DO I
HAVE TO C620(
Monogamy
A new study 7+,1*6
SAY IT?’ found married
people are more
likely to survive
cancer
$5(025(
,03257$17
PRESIDENT OBAMA, vowing that political
considerations will not affect the federal
investigation into Hillary Clinton’s use of a 7+$1$
private email server while she was Secretary
of State 52&.
6+2:
O B A M A , L A W R E N C E , C A M E R O N , S P R I N G S T E E N , R I N G S : G E T T Y I M A G E S; I L L U S T R AT I O N S B Y B R O W N B I R D D E S I G N F O R T I M E
A federal
court reversed
DAVID CAMERON, British Prime Minister,
a ruling that
releasing his tax returns under pressure decriminalized
following revelations in the so-called Panama the practice in
Papers that he once held interests in his late Utah
father’s offshore fund
million
Distance in miles
traveled by John Kerry
during his tenure as
‘It is my lack of virtue and I am
U.S. Secretary of
State, surpassing
unbearably ashamed.’
predecessor Hillary TOSHIFUMI SUZUKI, chairman and CEO of the parent company of convenience-store giant 7-Eleven,
Clinton’s mark blaming his own shortcomings as he resigned after losing a boardroom battle
S O U R C E : L A W R E N C E : H A R P E R ’S B A Z A A R
‘WHY DO I WANT TO PAY SOMEBODY IN MICHIGAN A LIVING WAGE WHEN I CAN PAY SLAVE WAGES IN MEXICO OR CHINA?’ —PAGE 10
“Count me out,” said House Speaker Paul Ryan, discussing the ongoing race for the GOP nomination
CAMPAIGN 2016 ASK REPUBLICANS IN CONGRESS gaining two seats in the Senate and
these days whether they prefer Donald maintaining a majority in the House.
The GOP’s Trump or Ted Cruz and there is a good More than a few senior Republi-
plan to look chance they will answer with a third
name: Haley Barbour.
cans who see both Trump and Cruz
as kryptonite in purple states with
past the What does the former Republican
National Committee chairman and
tough elections this year would be de-
lighted to settle for such an outcome
presidency— power lobbyist who took a turn as Mis- again. “It’s more than O.K.,” said Tony
sissippi governor have to do with the Fratto, a top Treasury oicial and
and keep 2016 presidential election? Embattled White House aide to President George
Congress Senators and Congressmen are hold-
ing him up as Example A of how they’d
W. Bush. “No one is happy that Hillary
Clinton is going to be President, but
By Philip Elliott and like to see the 2016 election go, though there are worse things.”
Jay Newton-Small that doesn’t mean they want him on The current Republican Party chair,
the ticket. As RNC chief in 1996, Bar- Reince Priebus, has told both Trump
bour bucked Bob Dole—ostensibly the and Cruz that he will maintain per-
head of the party as its White House sonal control of the $126 million that
nominee—and pulled funding from donors have given him to spend as he
the presidential contest to funnel it sees it. Conservative patrons and the
to down-ballot races. Dole lost to Bill outside groups they fund, meanwhile,
Clinton, but Republicans ended up are signaling that they have thrown in
REUTERS
H E A LT H , PA N D A , R H I N O : A P ; D I P L O M A C Y, T E R R O R I S M , C A M E R O N , T I G E R , C O N D O R , W H A L E : G E T T Y I M A G E S; I L L U S T R AT I O N B Y M A R T I N G E E F O R T I M E
even been scrambling to avoid getting named as DIPLOMACY three years. be in the trillions.
convention delegates, while North Carolina Sena- Germany may
tor Richard Burr plans to join Ayotte in skipping prosecute a comedian INDIA AND BAHRAIN AND
Cleveland to tend to his race back home. who read a satirical SRI LANKA QATAR
poem about Turkey’s In December, India’s Construction on
Even Republican House Speaker Paul Ryan, President Recep Transport Minister the Qatar-Bahrain
who some hoped would emerge as a white knight Tayyip Erdogan on announced a 14-mile Friendship Bridge
from a contested convention, has decided to focus live television. Ankara sea bridge and was irst proposed in
on keeping his own House in order. “Let me be requested criminal tunnel had received 1999 but, ironically
clear: I do not want, nor will I accept, the nomina- proceedings against funding, though Sri enough, has been
Jan Böhmermann Lanka’s government long delayed by
tion for our party,” Ryan told reporters on April 12, (above) under a German said it wasn’t aware squabbles between
ahead of a trip to New York City to meet with some law that forbids insults of the plans. the neighbors.
of the party’s most generous donors. to foreign leaders.
That leaves the GOP down on its luck. Polls
show that Trump remains underwater with key
constituencies in the general election, with 73% of DIGITS
female voters telling pollsters for CNN that they
have a negative view of him. The same goes for La-
tinos (85%), African Americans (80%) and young
voters (80%). These groups view Cruz as slightly
better, although he still loses to Hillary Clinton in
TERRORISM
One in five suicide
attacks launched by
$250
million
most head-to-head surveys.
Islamist extremist
Democrats are looking down ballot as well, with group Boko Haram
seven Senate Republican seats rated as either toss- in West Africa was
ups or leaning Democratic, and at least 14 House carried out by children
GOP seats—about half the number Democrats in 2015, according
The value of a grant by Silicon Valley
would need to take the majority—are up for grabs. to a new report by
entrepreneur Sean Parker to fund research
UNICEF. About 75% of
“If the wave is huge and brings in all of the surf- the children used as
into immunotherapy for cancer; TIME explored
boards, we have the margins,” says a House Demo- the treatments—and the growing interest in
bombers were female,
cratic strategist. “But it’s hard to predict the size of them—in an April 4 cover story
some as young as 8.
the November wave when we’re in April.” □
8 TIME April 25, 2016
DATA
NATURE’S
COMEBACKS
The global wild
tiger population
has increased to
3,890, according
to the latest
census by WWF
and the Global
Tiger Forum. Here
are other animals
making returns
from endangered
conditions:
California
condor
From 22 in 1982
to hundreds today
MAIDEN OVER Kate Middleton takes part in a charity cricket match with former Indian cricketer Dilip Vengsarkar in
Mumbai on April 10. Prince William and the Duchess of Cambridge toured India and Bhutan in their irst-ever oficial visit
to the region. Photograph by Kunal Patil—Hindustan Times/Sipa USA
Humpback
whale
BRITAIN TAX TROUBLES Cameron unveiled new rules to Numbers are
Hard times for tackle tax evasion after the Panama Papers, but rising in Australia
facturing jobs have been returning to the U.S. for the bet- American factory worker nite nationalist passions
ter part of a decade. The demand for higher wages in but those who proit from and provide a platform for
China and other emerging markets, the easy availability the fast-increasing ei- the next wave of Trump/
of low-cost energy for U.S. businesses and the advantages ciency of the developed Sanders-style populism—
of bringing production closer to wealthier consumers world’s machines. in rich and poor countries
have together created nearly a million new manufactur- Those who claim they alike. □
10 TIME April 25, 2016
TheBrief
HEALTH Milestones
How income afects U.S. life spans WON
The Masters
TRENDING MONEY MAY NOT BUY HAPPI- people lived. People making the tournament, by Danny
Willett, who beat
ness (or love), but it might just least but residing in cities like defending champion
buy more time to ind it. In the New York and San Francisco, for Jordan Spieth in one
most comprehensive look so instance, lived longer than people of the biggest upsets
far at longevity and income, in cities like Detroit and Tulsa, in the history of golf.
researchers report in JAMA that Okla. Experts suspect that’s be- It was Willett’s irst
major title and the
people with higher incomes tend cause of public-health eforts, irst Masters win for
EXECUTIONS
The number of people
to live longer—though there such as smoking bans and the re- an Englishman in 20
put to death worldwide were some interesting nuances moval of unhealthy ingredients years.
rose by 54% in 2015, that the researchers teased out. like trans fats. Research shows
DIED
according to Amnesty Contrary to what some experts that people with lower incomes Howard Marks, 70,
International. The predicted, there was no leveling- in cities with such policies tend
total of at least 1,634 legendary Oxford-
executions, the highest
of point where making more to be less obese, smoke less and educated drug smug-
since 1989, was didn’t provide any added years. have better health behaviors than gler jailed for running
driven by Iran, Pakistan Overall, people with the top 1% in people in cities that didn’t ad- an international hash-
ish and marijuana
and Saudi Arabia. In income lived 10 to 15 years longer vocate such health-promoting ring in the 1970s
the U.S., however, than those at the bottom 1%. behaviors. The researchers say
executions were at a and ’80s. After his
24-year low.
At the same time, having a this data supports the idea that release he wrote the
lower income didn’t necessarily public-health policies can partly best-selling autobiog-
lead to the shortest lives—that ofset the efects of inequality. raphy Mr Nice.
▷ Will Smith, 34,
varied greatly based on where —ALICE PARK former star defensive
end for the New
SALT LAKE CITY Orleans Saints.
Highest-income NEW YORK CITY
OKLAHOMA CITY The lowest-income Police say Smith was
people live 88 Life expectancy for fatally shot in New
years, on average group lives to an
SOCIETY lowest-income group average age of 82 Orleans by a man
A remote aboriginal is 78 years who rear-ended his
Canadian community car in an apparent
declared a state of case of road rage.
emergency after 11 ▷ Ed Snider, 83,
members attempted founder of the
suicide on a single day, Philadelphia Flyers,
on April 11. Mental- the irst expansion
E X E C U T I O N S , B U S I N E S S : G E T T Y I M A G E S; S O C I E T Y: R E U T E R S ; D E S I G N : E M A P E T E R — M I C H A E L G R E E N A R C H I T E C T U R E
health experts visited team in hockey to win
the Attawapiskat the Stanley Cup. He
First Nation tribe, which GARY, IND. also formerly owned
LAS VEGAS
saw more than 100 Here the lowest the Philadelphia
Top earners live four
suicide attempts over earners live to 77, 76ers and a stake
years less than those
the winter. on average in the Philadelphia
in Salt Lake City
Eagles.
DESIGN
Blake, all selling their own form of deliv- plummeted—a combination that Johns ile peace. They’re all here, even if you
erance for this city. Polls show state sena- Hopkins researchers who studied the don’t always see them. □
13
The Brief Earth
TEMPERATURES
How El Niño
heats the globe
2015 WAS ON AVERAGE THE
warmest year globally since rec-
ord keeping began nearly 150
years ago—and the 2016 average
is shaping up to be even hotter. A
strong El Niño deserves the brunt
of the blame. The unusually warm
Paciic Ocean surface waters that
mark an El Niño event amplify
heat over land. Temperatures
spiked around the globe as El Niño
began last fall, leading to month
after month of record-breaking
heat. Global temperatures this
past February were 2.2°F above
Warm water temperatures have bleached coral of the Australian coast the 20th century average, mak-
ing it the most anomalously hot
month on record. But man-made
The Great Barrier Reef is under attack global warming is still playing
from El Niño and climate change a lasting role in the record heat.
“That’s how we will see the efects
By Justin Worland of climate change: the HED_SM
extremes
will become more TYhis is text_sans
extreme,” for
says
position only
THE GREAT BARRIER REEF IS MORE more than 15% of the world’s coral. Michael Mann, a climate scientist
than worthy of its name. Coral of all It’s not just a matter of aquatic aes- at Penn State University.
shapes, sizes and colors cover more than thetics. Reefs act as natural barriers
130,000 sq. mi. of the coast of Austra- that protect coastal communities from Difference from El Niño
lia, making it the world’s largest reef storms and looding. Marine life depends 1.0 average, in exacerbated
system and supporting an astounding on coral reefs as habitats, while coastal degrees Celsius global
0.8 warming last
variety of marine life. towns depend on them as tourist draws. 0.6 year
But today the Great Barrier Reef is But a bigger worry may be what the 0.4
dying. The temporary warming efect of bleaching suggests about future cli- 0.2
a major El Niño event—combined with mate change. The rapid death of coral 0
ongoing climate change—has heated reefs demonstrates that climate change –0.2
the waters around the reef to nearly un- is irreversibly afecting the world right –0.4
precedented levels. That warming has now, even as policymakers treat warm- 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2015
in turn driven a mass bleaching that has ing as something to be dealt with in the
sucked the color—and the life—out of future. “Climate change may be slow-
DROUGHT
the coral. And the Great Barrier Reef creeping sometimes, but other times it
isn’t alone. “This is the longest bleach-
ing event ever recorded,” says David
Kline, a Scripps Institution of Oceanog-
raphy scientist. “It’s truly global, and it’s
takes great leaps forward,” says Steve
Palumbi, an ocean scientist at Stanford
University. “This is one of those leaps.”
Local solutions—like reducing ish-
1 million
That’s the number of children in Africa—
including in hard-hit Ethiopia—without
looking very severe.” ing and cleaning up pollution—can help steady access to food, largely because
C O U R T E S Y X L C AT L I N S E AV I E W S U R V E Y
Bleaching occurs when ocean slow reef loss, but scientists say a global of El Niño. The weather phenomenon
disruptions—warm water, pollution, problem requires a global solution. has helped trigger drought in many parts
algae overgrowth—drive away the sym- Nearly 200 countries agreed last year to of the world, leaving millions hungry.
biotic organisms that live on the coral work to keep global temperatures from And Africa isn’t the only place affected
by El Niño–influenced drought. In Papua
and give it color. Within weeks, the reef rising more than 3.6°F by 2100, but that New Guinea, drought has driven bush-
could die, leaving behind a forest of life- goal will be tough to reach. And if gov- ires affecting millions. In Bolivia, nearly
less, bone white coral. Scientists believe ernments fail, coral reefs will be only a million animals like sheep and llamas
the bleaching now under way may kill the irst victims. □ have died as pastureland dries out.
Some doctors say patient surveys have led them to prescribe potentially dangerous painkillers
HEALTH NOT LONG AGO, DR. BILL SULLIVAN, hit is a direct, if unintended, result
an emergency-room physician in of reforms put in place under the
The rural Spring Valley, Ill., treated a type Afordable Care Act.
Obamacare of patient that has become all too
familiar in hospitals across the country.
As part of an Obamacare initiative
meant to reward quality care, the Cen-
quirk that Complaining of abdominal pain, the
man asked speciically for Dilaudid, a
ters for Medicare and Medicaid Ser-
vices (CMS) is allocating some $1.5 bil-
is fueling potentially habit-forming painkiller.
Noticing that his record showed a
lion in Medicare payments to hospitals
on the basis of criteria that include
the opioid long history of opioid prescriptions, patient-satisfaction surveys. Among
epidemic Sullivan suggested a less potent option. the questions: “During this hospital
CENTERS FOR MEDICARE AND MEDICAID SERVICES
The patient’s response, according to stay, how often did the hospital staf do
By Sean Gregory the doctor: “Morphine is sh-t.” everything they could to help you with
Sullivan refused to prescribe the your pain?” And: “How often was your
patient’s drug of choice. By doing so, he pain well controlled?”
may have put his hospital at inancial To many physicians and lawmakers
risk. That might seem strange, since struggling to contain the nation’s
opioid addiction has become a national opioid crisis, tying a patient’s feelings
epidemic. But the potential economic about pain management to a hospital’s
BIG IDEA
1 2 3
The self-filling With the bike- The air then travels Water trickles into
water bottle mounted version,
the rider’s speed
through a cooling
chamber, and water
the bottle at a rate
of up to half a liter LOST IN
DATA
It isn’t commercially available yet, causes air to flow vapor condenses per hour—though TRANSLATION
but the solar-powered Fontus is through a ilter, which on a special surface it varies according
making a splash on crowdfunding pulls out dust and designed to draw to air humidity, says The look of emojis
site Indiegogo. Here’s how it dirt. (A stationary out moisture. Kristof Retezár, the varies widely across
works. —Julie Shapiro version relies on a project’s designer. platforms—and leads
fan for airflow.) to miscommunication,
per a new study from
the University of
Minnesota. Here, a few
of the most divergent
emojis by (clockwise
from top left) Apple,
Google, Microsoft
1 and LG.
QUICK TAKE
PERSON RAISING
By Antoine van Agtmael and Fred Bakker BOTH HANDS IN
CELEBRATION
LISTEN TO SOME PRESIDENTIAL CANDI- N.Y., whose economy has been written of as Subjects said
dates’ stump speeches and it’s easy to believe stagnant, the SUNY Poly NanoTech Megaplex Microsoft’s icon looked
the U.S. isn’t as competitive as it used to be— is leading research on semiconductors with more “exciting,” while
that onetime industrial powerhouses such top talent from Intel, IBM and Samsung. LG’s looked more like
“praise hands.”
as Akron, Ohio, and Pittsburgh are unable to These centers prove that “smart” is the
keep up with low-cost alternatives in China. new “cheap,” especially for manufacturing.
That is a myth. After years of research, we And corporate America will do well to mine
found that cities in the Rust Belt—the areas such insights and leverage the potential of
of the Northeast and Midwest purportedly in the Rust Belt, just as it’s done with Silicon
decline—are some of the smartest places on Valley. After all, this new wave of American
earth, where universities, big businesses and robots, 3-D printers and more may well make
tiny startups are collaborating closely and it cheaper—and easier—to put “made in the
sharing brainpower. While it’s true, for ex- USA” back in business. SLEEPING FACE
ample, that Akron may have lost jobs in the Descriptions for
tire business, it is now home to hundreds of Van Agtmael and Bakker are the authors Google’s version
emphasized “sleepy,”
polymer companies, part of a massive state- of The Smartest Places on Earth: Why whereas Microsoft’s
wide presence in the polymer and specialty- Rustbelts Are the Emerging Hotspots of looked “sad” or “down.”
chemical industry. And just outside Albany, Global Innovation —S.B.
The View American Genius
42
Hours per year
that rush-hour
commuters lose to
TRANSPORTATION trafic jams
Numbers will help determine the traveled. Among the big questions: Are way. “These apps are starting to slowly
answers, and so Shaheen and her team we sharing more? And if so, what are we devolve the perception that getting into
have embarked on a landmark study ex- a car with somebody you don’t know is
amining the latest wave of carpooling the wrong thing to do,” Shaheen says.
in the U.S., one organized not through And that kind of trust is a prerequi-
bulletin boards over a period of days but site for widespread carpooling, the
through smartphone apps in real time. Shaheen is kind we’ll all be doing if we’re going to
Armed with the data that ride-app com- a pioneer of share—and not own—automated ve-
panies Uber and Lyft have agreed to carpooling hicles that swoop by to pick us up at our
provide, Shaheen aims to calculate the research drivewayless homes. Which may be the
two companies’ environmental impact, commute of the future. □
22 TIME April 25, 2016
It takes just as much ingenuity to go to Mars
as it does to make this popcorn.
Timing, precision, consistency—you expect to focus on these things when you’re building a rocket,
but they’re just as important if you’re trying to produce 30,000 perfect bags of kettle corn. That’s
why Siemens software is rapidly delivering innovation to every phase of manufacturing, from design
through production. Ingenuity is helping create better, more efficient, more cost-effective products.
usa.siemens.com/ingenuityforlife
© Siemens, 2016. All Rights Reserved.
CGCB-A10129-00-7600
The View
4 APPS TO HELP
YOU GIVE BACK
VOLUNTEERMATCH
aggregates volunteer
opportunities with
organizations across
the U.S., sorted
according to your
location and interests
(like animals or arts
and culture). Listings
include information
about the required time
commitment so you
can ind something that
works for your schedule.
(volunteermatch.org)
set and expertise, not only will you be more Apply the same logic to the home front. (charitymiles.org)
engaged and excited, but your time will be Volunteer with your children so it doesn’t —Jessie Van Amburg
better spent,” says Bush Lauren. come at the expense of family time. Interacting
with the people you’re helping will cultivate
2. BECOME A REGULAR. If you’re reading to your kids’ sense of empathy—and yours too.
children in a hospital or working with senior —ROBIN HILMANTEL
24 TIME April 25, 2016
550
VOLUNTEER PROJECTS PLANNED
THIS MONTH ALONE
78,000
ALLSTATE AGENCY OWNERS
AND EMPLOYEES
40
YEARS OF
BRINGING OUT
THE GOOD
Since 1976, the Allstate Helping Hands volunteer program has given
Allstate agency owners and employees across the country the
chance to give back by getting their hands dirty. From landscaping
parks and painting schools to mentoring local youth, they volunteer
year-round to help our community be better, stronger and safer.
Because bringing out the good is good for everyone.
ing about everything from Chinese inancial markets to for more such warnings, as Yellen
the future of European integration. “In such an environ- continues to transform the Fed and
ment, it makes sense to use a risk-management approach leads the U.S. through its new eco-
to identify and avoid the big mistakes. That’s one reason nomic wilderness. □
26 TIME April 25, 2016
The View In the Arena
helped ease by funding 100,000 more cops. Clinton, who brought a measure of san-
For decades, Democrats had denied the truth of Daniel ity to these complicated issues, is being
Patrick Moynihan’s analysis of black family structure: that viliied now. □
27
ISSUES + 2016
THE UNITE
OF INSO
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This much I have learned about debt after
40 years of writing and study: It is better not
to incur it. Once it is incurred, it is better to
pay it off. America, we have a problem.
We owe more than we can easily repay. something that measures value. The Fed
We spend too much and borrow too Trillion-dollar views money as a magic wand, something
much. Worse, we promise too much. We questions that creates value.
conjure dollar bills by the trillions—pull A little guide to that very big number Dollars aren’t so much minted these
them right out of thin air. I won’t insist days. Rather, they issue from the Fed’s
that this can’t go on, because it has. I only computers in billowing digital clouds.
say that it will eventually stop. The cost of producing them is only the en-
I don’t know the date, but I believe ergy expended on tapping the keys. The
that I know the reason. It will stop when Fed emits these electronic greenbacks to
the world loses conidence in the dollars attempt to control the course of economic
we owe. Come that moment of truth, events. It’s a heaven-sent monetary sys-
the nation will resemble Chicago, a once How long have tem for a big-spending government.
we had debt?
prosperous polity now trying to persuade You may struggle to pay that midteens
its once trusting creditors that it is actu- The U.S. has rate on your outstanding credit-card bal-
carried debt
ally solvent. virtually since Isn’t some ance. The Treasury gets by paying an av-
To understand our inancial ix, put debt good? erage of just 1.8% on that portion of the
the American
yourself in the position of the govern- Revolution, when Sure, as anyone debt, held by savers and investors both
ment. Say you earn the typical American the Founding who owns a here and abroad. Deined in this way, we
family income, and you spend and bor- Fathers home thanks owe $13.9 trillion. The $19 trillion igure
borrowed money to a mortgage
row as the government does. So assum- from France and knows. Infra- ticking upward on the famous National
ing, you would earn $54,000 a year, spend the Netherlands structure, Debt Clock adds the debts the govern-
$64,000 a year and charge $10,000 to to pay for the schools and ment owes itself. (How does this pseudo
your already slightly overburdened credit ight. Since then, research are bookkeeping work? The Social Security
card. I say slightly overburdened—your the country has investments Administration takes in—temporarily—
been debt-free that can grow
outstanding balance is about $223,000. just once— the tax base. more than it pays out. With the surplus it
Of course, MasterCard wouldn’t allow under President But just like buys Treasury bonds. The bonds enlarge
you to run up that kind of tab. At an an- Andrew Jackson, an individual, the debt clock’s debt.) It’s not so impor-
nual percentage rate of 15%, the cost to who slashed a country can tant that the government pays itself on
service a $223,000 balance would ab- spending default when time. What is important is that the gov-
and sold off the sum gets
sorb 62% of your pretax income. But the government too high. ernment pay its public creditors on time.
government is diferent from you and me land. So cast your eyes on the exact numerical
(and Chicago). It has a central bank. rendering of that slightly smaller sum:
The Federal Reserve is the govern- $13,903,107,629,266. It is unmanageable.
ment’s Monopoly-money machine. It One can assume that the creditors
sets some interest rates and inluences trust the currency in which they expect
many others. It materializes dollars. It to be repaid. I wonder why, and for how
regulates—now regiments—the nation’s How much is too much
debt?
banks. It pulls levers to make the stock Japan 227.9%
market go up. Debt as a percentage of GDP Debt burden as a percentage of GDP
Congress is the source of the Fed’s (a proxy for the tax base) is
a useful guide; some econo- France 98.2%
power. The Constitution is the source mists believe anything above
of Congress’s power. The parchment en- 90% is in the danger zone. U.K. 90.6%
joins Congress to coin money and reg- The U.S., at nearly 74%,
ulate the value thereof. The founders is still below other major U.S. 73.6%
viewed money as a scale or yardstick, economies, including Japan
and France. The chart at Germany 71.7%
right shows the debt burden
Grant is the editor of Grant’s Interest Rate of the world’s seven largest India 51.7%
Observer. His latest book, The Forgotten economies by GDP.
Depression: 1921: The Crash That Cured China 16.7%
Itself, won the 2015 Hayek Prize
SOURCE:
CIA WORLD
30 TIME April 25, 2016 FACTBOOK
Who lends
to the U.S.?
When the
much longer. The Fed once fought inla- government
What’s the
relic. To manage the business cycle, the
tion. Now it actually sets out to cause it— needs money, it argument went, a government must have
difference
sells IOUs in the
about 2% a year is the target. Striving to between the the lexibility to print money, to muscle
form of Treasury deficit and
inlate, it presses down interest rates and securities like the debt?
around interest rates and to spend more
rustles up new dollars. bonds and than it takes in—in short, to “stimulate.”
From the nation’s 18th century found- T-bills. Ordinary The deicit is the Oh, we have stimulated. Between the
people buy them, annual difference
ing until 1971, the dollar was deined as between what the iscal years 2008 and 2012 alone, federal
as do busi-
a weight of gold or silver. Americans did government takes deicits totaled $5.6 trillion. The public
nesses, banks,
business with paper, of course. But these government in from taxes debt nearly doubled in the same span of
commercial bills and banknotes were agencies and and the amount years, to $11.2 trillion. The Federal Re-
convertible into monetary bedrock, the foreign entities. it spends. Every serve tickled $1.6 trillion in new digital
This debt totals year’s deicit is
precious metals. The expression sound added to the dollars into existence. True, our Great
$13.9 trillion.
as a dollar derives from the ring of a gold debt—and the Recession proved no Great Depression,
The Federal Re-
piece when you plunked it on a counter. serve holds the government but the post-2008 recovery is the limp-
Sound money coincided with bal- most debt, about almost always est on record.
anced budgets. Government borrow- $2.5 trillion, fol- spends more A thin cheer went up in January when
lowed by China than it takes in.
ings climbed in wartime and subsided in (In the past 50 the deicit (calculated over the 12 pre-
and Japan.
peacetime. The pattern was disarranged years, there have ceding months) weighed in at a mere
by depression in the 1930s and war in been only ive of $405 billion, the lowest over any 12-
the 1940s. It was broken by the John- surplus.) month period since 2008. Only $405 bil-
son Administration’s guns and butter lion. It’s not so much, as Washington
and entitlements programs in the 1960s. strums its calculators.
Richard Nixon administered the coup What’s the Let us pause to relect that a billion
de grâce on Aug. 15, 1971, when he an- point of a debt is a thousand million, and that a trillion
nounced that the dollar would derive its ceiling? is a thousand billion—or, alternatively,
Should I care
value from the say-so of the government. It was meant to about public a million millions. It’s a measure of the
The Fed could print as many green bills make borrowing debt? ix we’re in that the billions hardly seem
as the traic would bear. easier; before worth talking about.
Yes. The Fed can
1917, Treasury
Many applauded that sea change, needed Congress
print money. But It’s tomorrow’s trillions—the ones
then and later. Easy money rarely fails to state and local we’ve grandly promised to pay our-
to approve bond
please—at irst. It buoys stocks, bonds governments selves—that lie at the heart of the prob-
offerings. Today
cannot, and
and commercial real estate. House prices Treasury borrows
must raise taxes lem. The granddaddy of far-of commit-
jump, and car sales zoom. (Average auto- as needed to pay ments was Social Security, which dates
or cut services
the bills until it
lending rates, now 4%, have been nearly hits the ceiling.
to meet pension from the 1930s. Medicare and Medicaid
sawed in half since 2007.) Politicians, no- obligations in the 1960s and the Afordable Care Act
Measures to
ticing how a bull market fattens public for public in 2010 duly followed. The debt, as big as
raise the cap
employees.
pension funds, ratchet up the beneits trigger political it is, is the measure of past spending in ex-
they promise to retirees (a fact that state battles that have cess of tax receipts, a pattern of bad iscal
always ended in
and federal pensioners are encouraged to approval.
habits that traces its intellectual roots to
remember on Election Day). John Maynard Keynes and has its dollars-
Periodically, the buzz wears of. What and-cents origins with Lyndon Johnson
remains is a hangover of debts and prom- and his Great Society. What awaits us
ises. The proliferating dollars facilitate and our children and their children is
heavy borrowing. Ultra-low interest rates the unpaid tab of the future.
mask the cost. Is that all the debt there is?
I don’t ask that we return to some long- No. For this story, we focused
lost iscal and monetary Eden. None has on the per capita federal Household
ever existed, even in America. Crises debt, but the total burden
and business cycles are always with us. skyrockets when you factor in $14.22 trillion
I merely observe that sound money and things like business debt and
the mortgages, credit-card Federal government
a balanced budget were two sides of the balances and other elements of $13.90 trillion
coin of American prosperity. household debt.
Then came magical thinking. Maybe Business
Total:
you had a taste of modern economics in $12.78 trillion $43.89 trillion
school. If so, you probably learned that the SOURCES:
TRE ASURY
31
“Nobody knows anything,” screen- If repaid, where would the money come
writer William Goldman wisely ob- from? It would come from you, natu-
served about the accuracy of Hollywood Candidate math rally. The debt is ultimately a deferred
box-oice forecasts. The economists, in What the 2016 hopefuls say they’ll tax. You can calculate your pro rata obli-
general, are no better than the studio do—and what it means for debt gation on your smartphone. Just visit the
executives. Donald Trump has said Treasury website, which posts the debt to
You can’t blame people for not paying he could eliminate all the penny, then the Census Bureau’s web-
attention. America has forever deied the federal debt in eight site, which reports the up-to-the-minute
doomsdayers. The very language of gov- years, but his current tax size of the population. Divide the latter by
and spending plan could
ernment debt is calculated to tranquil- actually set us back an the former and you have the scary truth:
ize the critical mind. We speak of the additional $30 trillion $42,998.12 for every man, woman and
Department of the Treasury rather than by 2026, according to child, as I write this.
the Department of the Debt. (There’s no independent analysts. In the short term, the debt would no
net treasure in the Treasury.) We say en- doubt be reinanced, but at which inter-
titlement instead of taxing Peter to pay Hillary Clinton would up est rate? At 4.8%, the rate prevailing as re-
Paul and Social Security trust fund when spending by about 2%. cently as 2007, the government would pay
we mean just another ordinary govern- Analysts say her tax hikes more in interest expense—$654 billion—
ment account at the Department of Debt. would add $498 billion than it does for national defense. At a
in revenue after 10 years
(There is no trust fund because there is but could reduce GDP blended rate of 6.7%, the average prevail-
no division of assets, no accounts con- growth by 1%. ing in the 1990s, the net federal-interest
taining funds earmarked for you, the citi- bill would reach $913 billion, which very
zen, who so faithfully “contributed” your nearly equals this year’s projected outlay
GE T T Y IM AGES (5)
Ted Cruz calls for
payroll taxes.) a “balanced-budget on Social Security.
Today’s miniature interest rates con- amendment.” But his We always need protection against
stitute another form of public sedation. plan to cut taxes and cockeyed economic experimentation.
You’d suppose the doubling of the debt boost military spending
could add an estimated 1945
would jack up the cost of servicing the $12.5 trillion to the debt. End of World War II
debt. Nothing of the kind. As the debt has
doubled, the rate of interest has halved. $19,810.31
In 2007, we owed $5 trillion and paid Bernie Sanders would 139.9 million
levy $15.3 trillion in new
an average interest rate of 4.8%. Net in- taxes. But the cost of his
terest expense: $237 billion. In 2016 we’ll new health plan could still
owe $14.1 trillion and pay the average in- add $2 trillion to $15 tril-
terest rate I already mentioned: 1.8%. lion to the debt and slow
Net interest expense: $240 billion. It’s a GDP growth by 9.5%, 1957
some estimates say. Baby boom
wonder we didn’t think of this inancial
peaks at
perpetual-motion machine about a thou- 4.3 million births
sand years ago. John Kasich says he’d
Debt per se is neither good nor bad, balance the budget in $8,861.57
eight years. Experts say
though less is usually better than more. 172.0 million
they don’t have enough
How it’s priced and how it’s used are detail on whether his tax
what tips the scales. If chocolate cake cost reforms and spending
a penny a slice, the best of us would be cuts would add up.
tempted to break our diets. Well, govern-
ment debt is priced at less than 2%, and
Washington fell of the wagon years ago. D EB T I M PAC T EST I M AT ES: C O M M I T T EE F O R A R ES P O N S I B L E
F ED ER A L B U D G E T ( T RU M P, C RUZ, S A N D ERS, K A S I CH); TA X
The public debt will fall due someday. F O U N DAT I O N (C L I N TO N, S A N D ERS); TA X P O L I CY C E N T ER (S A N D ERS)
N OT E S: D E B T P E R C A P I TA I S B A S E D O N G OV E R N M E N T D E B T
(Some of it falls due just about every day.) H E L D BY T H E P U B L I C, A DJ U S T E D TO 2 016 D O L L A R S
1918 1929
End of The Great
World War I Depression starts
1913
Federal Reserve $2,578.29 $1,457.78
1900 is established
103.2 million 121.8 million
$392.41 $243.46
76.1 million 97.2 million
Once a national consensus on money chance, but she published her plan for a
and debt furnished this protective armor. peaceful revolution.
Money was gold and debt was bad, Amer- She asked her readers—I ask mine—to
icans assumed. Most credentialed econ- really examine the stub of their paycheck. 2009
omists today will smile at these ancient Observe how much your employer pays Great
Recession ends
prejudices. Allow me to suggest that our you and how much less you take home.
forebears knew something. Notice the dollars withheld for Medicare, $28,153.20
Keynes himself would recoil at 0% Social Security and so forth. If you are 306.8 million
bank-deposit rates, chronically low eco- like most of us, you stopped looking long
nomic growth and the towering trillions ago. You don’t miss the income that you
that we have so generously pledged to one never get to touch.
another. (All we have to do now is earn the Picking up where Kellems left of, I
money to pay them.) propose a slight alteration in payday pol-
How do we escape from our self- icy. Let each wage-earning citizen hold
constructed iscal jail? According to the the whole of his or her untaxed earnings—
Government Accountability Oice, un- actually touch them. Then let the govern-
paid taxes add up to more than $450 bil- ment pluck its taxes. 2007
Great Recession
lion a year. Even so, according to the Tax “Such a payroll policy,” wrote Kellems starts
Foundation, Americans spend 6.1 billion in her memoir, Taxes, Toil and Trouble, “is
hours and $233.8 billion each tax season entirely legal and if it were universally ad- $19,499.07
complying with a federal tax code that opted, in six months we would have either 301.2 million
runs to 10 million words. Are we quite a tax revolution or a startling contraction
sure we want no part of the lat-tax idea? of the budget!”
An identical low rate on most incomes. Black ink, sound money and the spirit
No deductions, no H&R Block. Imprac- of Vivien Kellems are the way forward. 2001
tical? So is the debt. “Make America solvent again” is my credo Clinton records
So is the spending (and the promises and battle cry. You can it it on a cap. □ fourth year of
budget surplus
to spend more down the road). We need
to stop the squandermania. How? By re- $15,944.70
suming the principled ight that Vivien 1990 285.0 million
Kellems waged against the IRS during Gulf War buildup
the Truman Administration. It enraged $16,802.56
Kellems, a doughty Connecticut entre-
249.5 million
preneur, that she was forced to withhold
federal taxes from her employees’ wages.
She called it involuntary servitude, and
she itched to make her constitutional
argument in court. She never got that
1981
Reagan takes
office, implements
1971 Reaganomics
Nixon removes
gold standard $8,348.23
$7,160.67 229.5 million
207.7 million
U.S.
debt burden
per American
(adjusted
for inflation)
G E T T Y I M A G E S ( 5 ) ; J A C K S O N : N AT I O N A L N U M I S M AT I C C O L L E C T I O N AT T H E S M I T H S O N I A N I N S T I T U T I O N
activist who got a viral public conversation going our currency. That’s a ine idea, but it shouldn’t
in 2015 by pushing for a woman on the $20 bill. come at Hamilton’s expense,” Bernanke wrote
In fact, when it comes to cash, symbolism is the in a June op-ed. To the nation’s inancial leaders,
whole point. Bills are essentially worthless scraps Hamilton was not just any old white guy; he was
of paper—except that they symbolize a store of the most important, inluential and visionary of
value to back them up. A Benjamin brings $100 of the white guys. Asking a Treasury Secretary to de-
purchasing power, but take away a zero by decree mote Hamilton turned out to be a bit like asking a
and the same slip of paper would buy 90% less. bird watcher to bury John James Audubon.
Put the correct combination of paper scraps in the Susan B.
hands of a cashier and they might respond with Anthony THERE HAVE BEEN DOZENS OF MEN ON VARIOUS
food, shelter, a lat-screen TV or a Fitbit. The sufragist has banknotes in the nation’s history, with forgotten
appeared on a stamp
This symbolic potency may even be increas- and a $1 coin. names like Silas Wright and William Windom.
ing as money becomes more abstract. When you But the current roster of guys on the front of our
can buy a house with a pen stroke, a car with your legal tender is pretty formidable. On the dollar
smartphone, a lifesaving surgery with the swipe of is the Father of His Country, George Washing-
a plastic card, the symbol known as cash takes on ton, for whom the capital is named. He’s not los-
the added heft of something tangible. Cash isn’t ing his spot anytime soon. The $5 and $50 bills
real—ask inlation-racked Venezuelans—but at belong to the two men most responsible for sav-
least you can put it in your pocket. ing the Union when the U.S. appeared doomed
So of course there is a ight over that square to implode: Abraham Lincoln and Ulysses Grant.
36 TIME April 25, 2016
Either one would be hard to knock of. On the ity by putting women on the back,” she says. Sena-
$100 bill is Benjamin Franklin, who has been tor Jeanne Shaheen, a Democrat from New Hamp-
called “the original American”—a prototype of shire who drafted a bill to put a woman on the $20
the self-made, entrepreneurial, clever and public- note, agrees. “Whomever is chosen shouldn’t have
spirited man. The brilliant yet idiosyncratic to share the honor,” she says of the $10 bill.
Thomas Jeferson gets a token nod on the little- THE HISTORY OF To this, Hamilton’s defenders have pointed to
used $2 bill, and other Presidents make footnote THE $10 BILL a solution: Andrew Jackson, whose stock is trad-
appearances on various high-denomination bills Change is rare in U.S. ing at a steep discount these days, thanks to his
currency design
that are never seen in circulation. slave-trading résumé and his record as a perse-
That leaves the $10 and $20 bills and the two cutor of Native Americans. No President has
hugely inluential and polarizing men whose un- fewer friends at Treasury: Jackson’s ierce cru-
quiet ghosts have never stopped battling for the sade against national banking guaranteed that.
American mind. Alexander Hamilton and Andrew In fact, he so loathed the very concept of central
Jackson, one an immigrant genius who basically banknotes that, if he came back from the dead,
invented the U.S. economy, the other a charis- he might lead the charge to have his face removed
matic President who largely created the Demo- from the $20 bill.
cratic Party. The man of Wall Street and the man Deciding on the right woman for the $10 bill,
of Main Street. The reputations of both men have 1914 either front or back, has been a struggle all its own.
oscillated wildly since their deaths in 1804 and President Andrew Formidable igures from Harriet Tubman and El-
Jackson appeared on
1845, respectively. the face of the irst eanor Roosevelt to Susan B. Anthony and Rosa
But it just so happens that Hamilton’s stock has $10 bill; he is now on Parks have all been suggested, with public polls
jumped to an all-time high at precisely the mo- the $20. showing a nation divided. Complicating matters
ment when he’s faced with losing his, well, face. further (if that is possible) is the fact that among
His vision of the U.S. as a continent-spanning, the women who care about this, there are surpris-
industry-based global inancial power has been ing fault lines. Hillary Clinton and her replace-
vindicated by history. And at the same time, his ment in the Senate, New York’s Kirsten Gillibrand,
singular biography (with its decidedly sexy under- have lined up for keeping Hamilton on the $10 bill
tones) captured the imagination of the hottest and putting someone like Tubman on the $20 bill.
young artist on Broadway, Lin-Manuel Miranda. Exchanging a slave trader for an emancipationist
Just when the bureaucracy seemed ready to take heroine could send exactly the right message. But
the wigged capitalist down a peg, Miranda’s multi- even if there were agreement on which woman
ethnic hip-hop musical Hamilton burst out as New 1929 might get stamped on the $20 bill, the problem
York City’s hottest ticket in decades. The bill was reissued is timing.
Lew went to see the production in August and with the face of While Lew could announce his decision any
Treasury Secretary
soon after dropped hints that changing the face of Alexander Hamilton.
day now, the new design of the $10 bill is sched-
the $10 bill might not be as simple as one face or uled for unveiling in 2020, with the bills hitting
even one bill. The Secretary hosted the musical’s pocketbooks by 2026. “The Advanced Counter-
star at the department in March, where he told feit Deterrence Steering Committee has not made
Miranda he would be “very happy” with the new any recommendations regarding the $5 bill or the
note. “There are multiple bills that are going to $20 bill,” said a senior government oicial famil-
be redesigned,” the Treasury Secretary told CBS. iar with the process. That means, under a normal
“One of the things that’s come out of this conver- schedule, the U.S. would be left waiting until at
sation is that very few people know what’s on the least 2030 to see a Tubman $20 bill at the bank.
back of any of our bills.” (A Treasury oicial took issue with that timeline,
Lew’s talk of the back side was the beginning of saying advancements in technology as well as new
his public backslide. “The notion that they might 2006 and emerging threats could speed up the process.)
have shared real estate has struck a lot of scholars The last redesign To many proponents of a change, any addi-
and a lot of cultural critics as disingenuous,” says includes symbols tional delay for a woman front and center is too
of freedom, like
historian and author Catherine Clinton, one of a the torch from the long. And no proponent may have a louder voice
group of scholars who met with Lew and Rios to Statue of Liberty. in this ight than young Soia of Massachusetts,
discuss the matter. In that meeting, she sarcasti- who turns 11 in April. She was the one, after all,
cally asked if a woman might appear on 80% of the whose winsome, clear-eyed letter caught the
bills to represent the pay gap women have histori- President’s eye in 2014. Asked by TIME about the
cally faced in the U.S. current ight over the $10 note, she did not hold
Harvard historian Jane Kamensky attended the back. “I think that putting a woman on the back
same meeting. “You’re not going to ix gender in- of the bill would make women seem less impor-
equality by putting a woman on the face of the tant,” she said. “You don’t pay a lot of attention to
$10, but boy will you emphasize gender inequal- the back of the bill.” □
37
THE BILLION
HE MEN EASED PAST THE PICKET- rise of Donald Trump has meant for the far right.
ers and police barricades, through Since the start of the 2016 campaign, Trump has
AND
Protesters last July outside a
Trump hotel under construction
in Washington
THE BIGOTS
How Donald Trump’s campaign brought white
nationalists out of the shadows
By Alex Altman
morphed over the past year into a virtual from Southern California who argues that
pro-Trump army. It’s a loose collection
of furies who range from provocative
‘Identity the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks were a Jewish
plot. But “he’s pushed the political dis-
Twitter trolls to white-rights activists,
garden-variety anti-Semites, proto- politics course in our direction.”
Trump has done more than tap into the
fascists and overt neo-Nazis.
Like any other movement that peddles trumps anxieties of his supporters. He’s turned
campaign rallies into tribal warfare. When
belonging to the alienated, the Alt Right
has developed its own lexicon. The pro-
testers holding antiracist signs on the
everything bad behavior lares up, he has been slow
or unwilling to repudiate it. He promised
to pay the legal bills of backers who scuf-
sidewalk below were classic “SJWs” (a de-
risive acronym for social-justice warriors).
else.’ le with protesters and snarls orders for
dissidents’ removal like a stereotypical
Establishment Republicans are known as —NATHAN DAMIGO, Southern sherif. When he suggested that
“cuckservatives,” a term designed to con- A EUROPEAN-RIGHTS ACTIVIST FROM riots might erupt at the GOP convention if
CALIFORNIA WHO BLOGS ABOUT
note emasculation. Both groups fall into INCIDENTS OF ALLEGED ANTIWHITE BIAS
the nomination eludes his grasp, it struck
the category of people whom members of many who have witnessed the chaos at his
the Alt Right refer to on Twitter and in events as a credible threat.
blogs like the Right Stuf as “ovenworthy.” White nationalists believe Trump has
Though they often disagree on tone courted their support through a series of
and tactics, members of the Alt Right are subtle signals. To his 7.5 million follow-
bound by a few core beliefs. They regard ers on Twitter, Trump has retweeted rac-
most Republican politicians as Zionist ist fans, including accounts that promote
puppets, captive to corporations seeking #WhiteGenocide—the idea that the bi-
cheap labor. They tend to be protectionist partisan push for diversity is designed to
on trade, isolationist on foreign policy and subjugate whites. (The tweets themselves
unmoved by cornerstone conservative is- did not contain racist content.) Some of
sues like free markets or the Constitution. his stafers follow popular Alt Right ig-
They reject the beneits of diversity and ures whose tweets are littered with racist
view demographic trends as an existen- slurs have tainted Trump rallies from Al- remarks. Trump has retweeted debunked
tial threat. abama to Nevada. In Ohio and Missouri, statistics that posit an epidemic of black-
Over $10 cocktails at the NPI event, his supporters urged protesters to “go on-white crime.
white nationalists described U.S. popula- back to Africa” and “go to Auschwitz,” On the campaign trail, Trump has
tion dynamics with a sense of dread. “In respectively. At the same time, Trump’s touted an Eisenhower-era deportation
a democracy, the majority rules,” said events have been tainted by episodes of program known as Operation Wetback.
Jefrey, a 27-year-old soap entrepreneur racially charged violence. At an event in He’s pointed to the deaths of Kathryn
from Louisiana. “If we become a minority Kentucky, a prominent white suprema- Steinle, a young white woman murdered
in our own country, we will be stripped cist shoved and shouted at a young black in San Francisco, and Jamiel Shaw, a black
of our power.” Others suggested that they woman. Melees between Black Lives high school football star killed in Los An-
could face systemic persecution if white Matter activists and Trump’s backers geles, as examples of the threat posed by
birthrates remain low and immigration forced the cancellation of a rally in Chi- undocumented immigrants. “We’re being
isn’t curtailed. cago. At an event in Fayetteville, N.C., a attacked,” Trump said last August. “Peo-
“Diversity brings diferences, and Trump fan named John McGraw, 78, was ple are coming through the border that
sometimes those diferences are so irrec- charged with assault for sucker punching are really bad hombres.” His campaign is-
oncilable, they cause conlict,” said Na- a black protester. “The next time we see sued press credentials to James Edwards,
than Damigo, a 29-year-old student from him,” said McGraw later, “we might have a white-supremacist radio host who in-
Oakdale, Calif., who blogs about incidents to kill him.” terviewed one of Trump’s sons. In some
of alleged antiwhite bias. To Damigo, a How much blame Trump deserves for interviews, Trump declined to repudiate
former Marine who fought on the sectar- this is a complicated question. He has racist supporters like former Ku Klux Klan
ian battleields of Iraq, the rise of a can- never endorsed the tenets of white su- grand wizard David Duke.
didate like Trump was inevitable. “This premacy or espoused explicit racism on Trump spokeswoman Hope Hicks
is what happens in all multiracial, multi- the campaign trail. Even when promot- says he has no knowledge of or ailiation
religious, multiethnic societies,” he said. ing a ban on Muslims or linking Mexican with his far-right fan club. Trump, who
“Identity politics trumps everything else.” immigrants with rape and violence, he composes his tweets on a Samsung smart-
heaps praise on both groups as a whole. phone, doesn’t always vet the proiles of
#WHITEGENOCIDE Right-wing extremists don’t think Trump the supporters he retweets, says Hicks,
THE MIGRATION OF EXTREMISTS FROM shares their views. “Donald Trump is not who notes the campaign was unaware of
Internet message boards to the campaign a white nationalist. I don’t think he’s a rac- Edwards’ political views. “He has been
trail has produced ugly scenes. Racial ist,” says John Friend, a Holocaust denier very strong in his disavowal of all groups
40 TIME April 25, 2016
△
that espouse hatred,” she tells TIME. Richard Spencer is among the of Trump supporters—say discrimination
White nationalists still think Trump many white nationalists who against whites is now as big a problem as
is winking at them. “It would be dii- have rallied behind Trump discrimination against blacks, according
cult for all this to be an accident,” says to a November study by the Public Reli-
Andrew Anglin, editor of the Daily where the tables were decorated with im- gion Research Institute. Attempts to stile
Stormer, a website with sections on the ages of Trump’s golden mane, he wore a free speech on college campuses—where
“Jewish problem” and “race war.” To An- dark suit, a purple vest over a pink dress students seek out “safe spaces” and com-
glin, Trump represents a bridge to a new, shirt and a distinctive haircut—shaved on plain that chalking “Trump 2016” on the
pro-white populism. “Something has the sides, longish on top—that has been quad is an act of intimidation—seem to
changed,” says the 31-year-old neo-Nazi widely mimicked by white nationalists. validate the candidate’s jeremiads against
from Columbus, Ohio. “He’s proven the Spencer strives to soften the edges of political correctness. Meanwhile, the
Republican Party can no longer push an his ideology. He says he rejects white su- GOP’s perpetual pursuit of policies like
P R E V I O U S PA G E S : P R O T E S T: C H I P S O M O D E V I L L A — G E T T Y I M A G E S; T R U M P : C H A D B AT K A —
agenda that’s against white Americans premacy and considers slavery “abhor- free trade, entitlement cuts and lower
for the beneit of the special interests rent.” He calls himself an “identitarian,” taxes for the wealthy has widened the gulf
they represent.” a belief system that emphasizes racial between party bosses and the base. “Con-
identity and has much more in common servatism is committing suicide,” Spencer
T H E W H I T E E T H N O S TAT E with European far-right movements than says. “We want to ill that space.”
T H E N E W YO R K T I M E S/ R E D U X ; T H I S PA G E : M AT T E I C H F O R T I M E
RICHARD SPENCER IS READY TO SEIZE anything cooked up by William F. Buckley In the age of Trump, the emergence
the moment. Spencer, 37, has devoted and his cohort. But the preppy demeanor of a new nationalist third party no lon-
much of his adult life to forging a new belies a radical vision: the establishment ger seems impossible. The GOP front
path for white nationalism. “We need to of a whites-only “ethnostate.” runner has shattered so many taboos,
present ourselves as serious and attrac- It’s still just a fantasy, Spencer ad- smashed so many conservative idols,
tive,” he explains. “The type of people mits. But he’s not wrong to suggest that that to Spencer it feels as if a movement
who can rule a country one day.” the rise of Trump, coupled with demo- rooted in race and identity, rather than
Spencer is clean-cut, polite and solici- graphic trends and social crosscurrents, the Constitution and capitalism, is gath-
tous. He spends his days on Twitter and has imbued this cause with new momen- ering steam. It may take years of itful
Slack and peppers his paragraphs with tum. The Black Lives Matter movement progress, he predicts, capped by some
academic jargon picked up during post- that took root in Ferguson, Mo., has fed seismic shock—a sudden war, a stock-
graduate studies at Duke and the Uni- a broader white-persecution complex. market crash. Or maybe just the arrival
versity of Chicago. At the NPI meeting, About 4 in 10 Americans—and nearly 75% of a candidate like Donald Trump. □
41
World
MAN-MADE DISASTER
A YEAR AFTER DEVASTATING QUAKES, POLITICS HAS KEPT NEPAL IN RUINS | TEXT BY NIKHIL KUMAR
PHOTOGRAPHS BY JAMES NACHTWEY FOR TIME
The Himalayan
mountain village
of Barpak was at
the epicenter of
the quakes
43
IT WAS A YEAR AGO THAT RAM GIRI’S
home imploded. The earthquakes that
killed nearly 9,000 people in Nepal in
April and May 2015 twisted the brick
walls of the two-room structure, spilling
the exterior into what had been the
family’s living space. To keep what’s
left stable, Giri spent his savings on
wooden trusses to hold up the walls. “It
can collapse at any moment,” he says,
gazing over his village in the country’s
Sindhupalchok district, still strewn with
debris from the 7.8- and 7.3-magnitude
quakes. All around him, desperate
villagers remain stuck in shaky tarpaulin
tents and small tin sheds that seem
barely strong enough to withstand the
monsoon rainstorms due this summer,
let alone another temblor in this
earthquake-prone nation.
It wasn’t meant to be this way. With
the damage from the quakes estimated
at about $7 billion, international do-
nors stepped up to aid Nepal, pledging
$4.1 billion in assistance for the desper-
ately poor country. But the money for
rebuilding homes has yet to reach vic-
tims like Giri. Instead of focusing on re-
construction, Nepal became consumed
with a protracted political battle over a
new constitution that had been in the
works since the monarchy was abolished
in 2008. “This was a moment to focus
on rebuilding the country, but the pri-
orities were all wrong,” says C.K. Lal, a
prominent Kathmandu-based political
commentator.
The departure of Nepal’s royal rulers
had been preceded, two years earlier, by
the end of a decadelong insurgency by
Maoist rebels that claimed more than
10,000 lives. In the years since, two sep-
arate eforts to write a new constitution
became mired in political squabbles over
the structure of the infant Federal Re-
public of Nepal. With the earthquakes,
the country’s major political parties de-
cided to fast-track the constitutional
process to clear the way for reconstruc-
tion. But the opposite happened, as eth-
nic groups living along Nepal’s border
with India protested that their interests
had been sidelined in a new constitution
that was hurriedly approved in Septem-
ber. More than 50 people were killed as
anger about the new document spread in
southern Nepal.
Known as Madhesis, with close
44 TIME April 25, 2016
Clockwise from top left: Residents rebuild in Barpak a year after the quakes; people live in tents in
Kathmandu; progress has been slow in Barpak; a woman carries a child through ruins
language and cultural ties to neighbor-
ing India, these communities have long
felt marginalized by the Nepalese state.
As they protested, the border was blocked
for up to 135 days, leaving trucks carry-
ing badly needed fuel and food stranded
in India, which surrounds Nepal on three
sides. Amid the political bickering—
Nepal blamed India for fanning the un-
rest; New Delhi denied the charge—
reconstruction was derailed. “It’s politics,
not rebuilding, that has dominated over
the past year,” says Prashant Jha, author
of Battles of the New Republic: A Contem-
porary History of Nepal.
The fallout is clear to see in the trou-
bled record of Nepal’s National Recon-
struction Authority (NRA), the state
agency responsible for the rebuilding
efort. First proposed in June, it wasn’t
until December that the NRA was i-
nally given legal backing. It took until
mid-March for the irst rebuilding
funds to be distributed to quake victims
in a section of the country’s hard-hit
Dolakha district. Nepal’s Prime Minister
K.P. Oli acknowledged the problems on
March 29, when he said that “the recon-
struction work is not going to end even
in decades at this pace,” according to the
Kathmandu Post.
Meanwhile, there are fears of re-
newed violence. The borders reopened
after politicians in Kathmandu amended
the constitution this year to placate the
protesters. But as analysts warned this
month, the changes don’t fully address
the Madhesi demands, leaving the door
open to further turmoil.
It’s a prospect that ills Giri with
dread. Before the earthquake, he earned
close to $200 a month as a driver for a
local businessman. His wife worked
part time at a farm. But the quake devas-
tated farming, and Giri lost his job when
protests blocked the supply of diesel to
Nepal. Though supplies have resumed,
fuel remains scarce. Giri says he is lucky
if he drives more than one or two days a
week. He spends the rest of the month
working as a laborer. “At the end of the
month, we now have $30, maybe $40,
for a family of four,” he says. “Our home
has been destroyed. Who knows when
the government will rebuild it? They
say they will give us money to rebuild it.
When? Next year?” —With reporting by
KAI SCHULTZ/KATHMANDU □
46 TIME April 25, 2016
Much of the reconstruction work in Barpak
is done communally; here, villagers rebuild
houses and a Buddhist stupa
‘WHY NOT USE TECHNOLOGY TO MAKE ANIMALS TALK, A NOBLE PURSUIT IF EVER THERE WAS ONE?’ —PAGE 56
Lamar, West, Rihanna, Beyoncé and Cyrus have all experimented with surprise releases
MUSIC ON FEB. 11, KANYE WEST THREW or so watching the live stream—fans
himself a party at Madison Square thought they had inally heard what
Pop’s biggest Garden, partly to hype the new The Life of Pablo was all about.
stars are season of his Yeezy clothing line but
also to unveil The Life of Pablo, the
Kanye had other ideas.
One day later, he tweeted that he
reviving the album he’d been dangling in front
of fans since 2014. While models
was adding more songs. Two days
later, he performed on Saturday Night
album by stood still in the center of the arena,
dressed in clothes that looked ripped
Live. On the third day, Pablo rose
again, appearing in the wee hours on
reinventing it from a postapocalyptic thriller, West the streaming service Tidal, which
By Nolan Feeney played new songs of a laptop like West co-owns. Now it had 18 tracks,
he was deejaying New York’s biggest and in the next 10 days it would be
house party. played 250 million times, Tidal said.
West had long been tinkering with But Kanye wasn’t done yet.
his new music, changing the title from That afternoon, he tweeted, “Ima ix
So Help Me God to Swish and then wolves” and over the next few weeks
Waves. He’d also been amending the he proceeded to change mixes, lyrics
GE T T Y IM AGES (5); L P: AL A M Y
track list, which began with 10 songs, and even the guest list. When he irst
and sharing it on social media. When premiered the track in 2015, “Wolves”
he debuted the music in front of thou- showcased pop diva Sia and the rapper
sands at the Garden—plus 20 million Vic Mensa; at the Garden, “Wolves”
49
Time Of Reviews
TIME
featured R&B singer Frank Ocean; now record and tour simultaneously before PICKS
the irst version had been restored. compiling the best tracks for her album
Some might call this rollout a mess; Body Talk. Then Beyoncé unwound
West calls it innovation. On April 1, his everything when she chucked 14 songs
label announced that The Life of Pablo— with matching music videos onto iTunes MOVIES
now at 19 tracks—is a “living” album with no warning in December 2013. The lively comedy
with “new iterations” due in coming “Pulling a Beyoncé” quickly became Elvis & Nixon (April 22)
months. It was added to Spotify and the term for any album rollout with imagines the meeting
that took place when
Apple Music, and as a result it is now a surprise element. One of the most the King (played by
the irst album to reach No. 1 on the successful artists to borrow from her Michael Shannon)
Billboard 200 from streaming—70% of playbook is the rapper Drake, who sat down with the
its “sales” units were actually streams. released If You’re Reading This It’s Too 37th President (Kevin
Industry pundits have long foretold Late with little fanfare in February Spacey) in 1970.
the death of the album as ile sharing 2015—only to watch it become the irst
and the digital-music revolution drove million-selling album released that year.
a 57% drop in sales and licensing Not every surprise is about
revenue from 1999 to 2009. (Adele, converting Internet buzz into dollars.
who sold 3.38 million copies of her Last year Miley Cyrus & Her Dead Petz,
album 25 in its irst week, knows those a set of home recordings, was posted
proclamations are slightly premature.) to the singer’s website; she announced
But West isn’t alone in dismantling it in the inal seconds of her hosting
conventions about how a major artist duties at the MTV Video Music Awards.
releases an album—or what makes an Rihanna released Anti in late January, △
MUSIC
album in the irst place. While his peers partly to cut her losses amid mounting Sturgill Simpson’s third
explore the opportunities allowed by expectations and bad press following album, A Sailor’s Guide
digital distribution, West has zeroed three scrapped singles. Rapper Kendrick to Earth (April 15), is a
in on what streaming ofers that other Lamar used the tactic to issue material letter to his new son,
formats can’t: that the album you love that may not have otherwise been infusing his already
nontraditional take on
today won’t be the same tomorrow. commercially viable: last month’s country with inflections
untitled unmastered. features rough of 1960s soul.
‘Pulling a Beyoncé’ outtakes from his Grammy-winning
To Pimp a Butterly. (It managed to top BOOKS
quickly became My Struggle: Book
the term for any the Billboard 200 albums chart anyway.) Five (April 19),
Some critics predict that fans and the penultimate
album rollout with a artists will—if they haven’t already—tire installment of Karl Ove
surprise element of the surprise strategy. But the woman Knausgaard’s lauded
who inspired the trend ofers clues autobiographical
series, covers the trials
THE ALBUM AS WE KNOW IT is about its future. of his writer’s block and
old enough to retire. Back in 1948, The week before West unveiled his father’s death.
Columbia Records released the irst The Life of Pablo, Beyoncé surprise- ▽
successful 12-in., 33⅓-r.p.m. vinyl released the politically charged single TELEVISION
record, nearly quintupling the amount “Formation,” with a music video In Season 2 of Netflix’s
Unbreakable Kimmy
of audio per side to around 22 minutes. referencing Hurricane Katrina and Schmidt (April 15),
(Before that, an “album” referred to police brutality. She performed the Ellie Kemper’s
a bundle of 10-in., 78-r.p.m. discs song at the Super Bowl and used the wholesome kidnapping
packaged together in paper sleeves.) next commercial break to announce survivor reunites
with her mom and
Over the next few decades, the industry a world tour that sold $100 million
pursues new romantic
shifted focus from singles to albums, in tickets in two weeks—all without opportunities.
with artists following a rigorous a new album, which would be less
pattern: record an album, promote it lucrative. (She is, however, rumored
U N B R E A K A B L E K I M M Y S C H M I D T: N E T F L I X
with a single, tour after release, repeat. to be working on one.) It was a smart
In recent years, a few high-proile move, using the country’s biggest TV
artists have tried to break that cycle. event as free advertising. But it was
Radiohead announced its 2007 album also a glimpse at what the future might
In Rainbows 10 days ahead of its release hold. Perhaps the next big change to
and let fans pay what they wanted. the album isn’t how much notice artists
In 2010, Swedish pop star Robyn put give us or how much they tinker—it’s
out three minialbums so she could whether they release one at all. □
50 TIME April 25, 2016
THEATER
CHILDREN’S BOOKS ▽
Are you MORE FOR MIDDLE
SCHOOLERS
there, Allah? Three new books about
big transitions
It’s me, Cindy
By Sarah Begley
REVIEW
Thrill of secrecy,
agony of deceit in
The Night Manager
By Daniel D’Addario
T H E N I G H T M A N A G E R : A M C ; L A U R I E : G E T T Y I M A G E S; D I C E : B R I A N B O W E N S M I T H — S H O W T I M E
who’s planning to supply weapons, pool in his parrot-colored robe than ped- “You’ll be in so deep, you’ll worry that
including napalm, to be used against dle artillery—but the latter inances the you’ll never get out of it,” Angela warns
the Egyptian people. She quickly makes former, so there it is. as she indoctrinates him into her world.
a violent exit from the series, but not The Night Manager applies the “There’s not a scrap of you that won’t
before the two fall into bed together. pleasing fundamentals of pulp spycraft get used. There’s not an hour that will
“I want one of your many selves to sleep to the banal world of corporate evil. Its go by that you won’t be scared.”
with me tonight,” she tells Jonathan. takes on the Arab Spring or Western Indeed, the further Jonathan burrows
“You can choose which one.” The line is power grabs in emerging economies are into his subterfuge, the more his person-
indefensible as anything but spy-genre ality seems to evaporate. All the better to
pastiche—which is, conveniently, what carry out his missions, or to carry a quint-
The Night Manager does best. essential spy series without distract-
The self Jonathan puts forward is bent ‘Becoming a man is ing from its delights—the wake left by a
on revenge, and he eventually inds his realizing that it’s speedboat in the Mediterranean, custom-
way there. Recruited by Angela, a British all rotten. Realizing cut suits, the deadly sheen of a tense mo-
intelligence oicer (Olivia Colman, how to celebrate that ment suspended in the air between two
exuding strength), he penetrates the stars having the time of their lives.
inner circle of self-styled philanthropist
rottenness—now
and weapons broker Richard Roper that’s freedom.’ THE NIGHT MANAGER airs Tuesdays at 10 p.m.
(Hugh Laurie) by appearing to thwart HUGH LAURIE, as Richard Roper E.T. on AMC
Hugh Laurie
The House star returns to television as the
charming villain of The Night Manager.
You wanted to adapt this John
le Carré novel for years. When the
book came out in 1993, I tried to option
it. I was far too late, and the great Syd-
ney Pollack had it. The world turns, and
20-odd years later it comes back to life,
by which point of course I’m far too old
ON HIS and creaky and bald to play [the hero]
RETURN TO Jonathan Pine, but we have to resign
VEEP ourselves to these processes.
‘If the writers
had put parts of What attracted you to the story?
the current After the Cold War, I—and I’m sure
American
election in the
many others—worried that not only
script, HBO would spies be out of work but so would Clay had small roles in Woody Allen’s Blue Jasmine
would have said, spy writers. Le Carré, being the genius and on HBO’s Vinyl; as the main event he craps out
“Nobody’s going he is, found something even more
to believe that.” compelling: the world of arms dealing
So often life REVIEW
and the skulduggery that is even now
overtakes art.’ being revealed by the Panama Papers. The Diceman cometh.
How did you prepare to play the
When will he leave?
“worst man in the world”? It’s THE COMEDIAN ANDREW DICE CLAY, ALWAYS
the responsibility of every actor to ofending perceived political correctness, is one of the
love the characters they play, and 1990s’ more exhausting products. Comedians have
Roper has charm. The devil always always needled pieties, but only in placid peacetime
does because if he had DEVIL could crudeness for its own sake be seen as a virtue.
tattooed on his head, we’d Clay’s new sitcom Dice looks like Curb Your Enthusiasm
give him a wide berth. And or Episodes—a series showing us the unglamorized life
when you’re the third worst of a star. Living in Las Vegas after a career slowdown,
man in the world, it’s not this ictionalized Dice attends a same-sex wedding,
that much of a stretch. gambles, bickers with his girlfriend (Natasha Leggero)
and drenches Kobe beef in A1 at a steak house. What
His morality is inconsis- we don’t see is any motivation.
tent. There’s a temptation His successes—selling out Madison Square Garden,
to paint characters a single igniting controversy as a Saturday Night Live host—
color, but humans don’t work are résumé lines, not character traits. They don’t make
that way. Hitler couldn’t bear him interesting. Dice is unwilling to give Clay qualities
cruelty to animals, as bizarre as beyond abrasiveness and unequipped to craft for him
that is. I must confess to your an insightful line. Leggero, co-creator of Comedy Cen-
readers that I’m smoking a ciga- tral’s terriic Another Period, is wasted, while cameos by
rette at the moment, and yet later Adrien Brody and Wayne Newton go nowhere.
in the day I might go for a run. These cameos hint at what Dice thinks it’s doing:
depicting rebellion, upending safe sitcom tropes and
One critic said you should be the being so irreverent that it even dares to joke about gay
next James Bond. I am not famil- people. But really it’s all about preserving Clay’s status.
iar with the mental health of this Sure, he’s shown struggling to ind work, but everyone
person, but that’s the craziest thing he meets is eager to be ofended. For all Dice’s trappings,
I’ve ever heard. I can’t climb stairs it never really takes us backstage. And against all reason,
without my knees popping. I’m not the Diceman won’t step out of the spotlight. —D.D.
the guy to be hurling myself out of
helicopters, if indeed I ever was. DICE airs Sundays at 9:30 p.m. E.T. on Showtime; subscribers
—ELIANA DOCKTERMAN can stream it in its entirety
55
Time Of Movies
REVIEW
Sing Street
honors the
DIY spirit
FROM THE MINUTE SOME
enterprising soul irst
plugged a guitar into an amp,
bored kids everywhere have
been making three-chord
symphonies out of their
crummy lives. That’s the
spirit John Carney (Once,
Begin Again) captures in
Sing Street, set in 1985
Dublin. Fourteen-year-old
Conor (Ferdia Walsh-Peelo)
has been moved from his
posh school to a terrible new
one, and his parents, broke
and unhappy, are splitting up.
When CGI panther Bagheera speaks, Ben Kingsley’s voice comes out With the spiritual guidance
of his stoner older brother
REVIEW Brendan (sleepy-sexy Jack
Reynor), he forms a band.
Jon Favreau’s Jungle Book is What else is there to do?
a wild tale for a digital age Before long, Conor and his
mates have come up with a
FILMMAKERS CAN DO SO MANY TERRIBLE AND EXCESSIVE handful of pure pop confec-
things with technology today. Why not use it to make animals tions, with some cheerfully
talk, a noble pursuit if ever there was one? In director Jon rough-around-the-edges
Favreau’s spirited, lush adaptation of The Jungle Book—based music videos to match. He
loosely on Rudyard Kipling’s stalwart fables, with dashes of the also earns the afection of
1967 Disney version tossed in—computer-generated animals a winsome aspiring model
talk, sing, saunter, slink and slither around a live-action boy, (Lucy Boynton). You’ve seen
Mowgli (Neel Sethi). This “man cub” has been raised by △ every element of Sing Street
wolves, which are apparently a lot like ’70s Berkeley types JUNGLE BEAT hundreds of times before—
The new Jungle Book
when it comes to parenting: brimming with questions and features several songs it’s Carney’s knack for assem-
quips, Mowgli is a precocious hippie child in red underpants. from the 1967 animated bling them that makes the
He’s not totally carefree, though. The meanest cat in the version, including “I Wanna diference. In his hands, this
jungle, Shere Khan (Idris Elba supplies his velvety, malevolent Be Like You” and “The isn’t just a nostalgia trip. It’s
purr), has vowed to kill him. The allies who gather round in- Bare Necessities” an homage to teenage kicks
clude the wise panther Bagheera (Ben Kingsley, in full master- and the urgency of getting
thespian mode) and lover-of-life sloth bear Baloo (a fabulous them any way you can.—S.Z.
Bill Murray—his voice sounds the way lannel pj’s feel).
If it all sounds a little too calculated—it is. Yet somehow Duran Duran-imals
this Jungle Book works, because Favreau has both a sense of and Adam Ant-alikes
F R O M L E F T: D I S N E Y, E V E R E T T, T H E W E I N S T E I N C O.
Starbucks faced
backlash over The color
a change to its scheme of
loyalty program Australia’s
that could make new $5 bill has
it harder to earn been likened
free drinks. to “vomit” on
social media.
Tesla had to
recall 2,700 of its
Model X vehicles A prank caller
because of a safety tricked Burger King
issue with its third- employees in Coon
row seat back. Rapids, Minn.,
into smashing the
eatery’s windows
by telling them there
was a gas leak.
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