Kategori: Semua kategori

Bulan pakalolo: (Indonesia)

2011-01 34
2011-02 25
2011-03 43
2011-04 22
2011-05 18
2011-06 24
2011-07 15
2011-08 69
2011-09 26
2011-10 17
2011-11 22
2011-12 21
2012-01 38
2012-02 33
2012-03 38
2012-04 41
2012-05 26
2012-06 35
2012-07 36
2012-08 63
2012-09 40
2012-10 39
2012-11 34
2012-12 32
2013-01 43
2013-02 42
2013-03 37
2013-04 53
2013-05 43
2013-06 46
2013-07 96
2013-08 65
2013-09 51
2013-10 34
2013-11 48
2013-12 51
2014-01 46
2014-02 43
2014-03 52
2014-04 52
2014-05 49
2014-06 50
2014-07 78
2014-08 51
2014-09 55
2014-10 49
2014-11 53
2014-12 54
2015-01 55
2015-02 54
2015-03 44
2015-04 46
2015-05 48
2015-06 70
2015-07 96
2015-08 39
2015-09 46
2015-10 44
2015-11 53
2015-12 53
2016-01 52
2016-02 53
2016-03 44
2016-04 46
2016-05 53
2016-06 88
2016-07 62
2016-08 37
2016-09 46
2016-10 43
2016-11 45
2016-12 58
2017-01 41
2017-02 47
2017-03 49
2017-04 41
2017-05 62
2017-06 100
2017-07 44
2017-08 31
2017-09 31
2017-10 37
2017-11 44
2017-12 49
2018-01 49
2018-02 44
2018-03 47
2018-04 46
2018-05 63
2018-06 87
2018-07 44
2018-08 45
2018-09 36
2018-10 34
2018-11 52
2018-12 51
 Training Testing
Metode Tahun
RMSE MAPE RMSE MAPE
1. Winters 13.61 22.39 17.61 27.55 2011
2. Decomposition 12.41 23.27 47.56 311.36 2012
3. Time Series Regression (TSR) 12.81 22.19 23.58 50.56 2013
4. Calendar Variation Model 8.31 14.96 15.89 35.63 2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
 Tertinggi
Tanggal Idul Fitri Per Bulan
1 2 3
30-Aug Akhir 8 3 1
18-Aug Tengah 8 4 9
7-Aug Awal 7 8 4
28-Jul Akhir 7 9 12
17-Jul Tengah 7 6 1
6-Jul Awal 6 7 1
24-Jun Akhir 6 7 12
14-Jun Tengah 6 5 12
Y(t)_1 FORE1 E^2 APE
41 52.09182 123.0285 0.270532
47 48.38868 1.928443 0.029546
49 48.80846 0.036686 0.003909
41 49.32942 69.3793 0.203157
62 45.17469 283.091 0.271376
100 59.17957 1666.308 0.408204
44 67.97601 574.849 0.544909
31 57.06435 679.3503 0.840785
31 48.24446 297.3713 0.556273
37 41.50065 20.25586 0.121639
44 46.38595 5.692739 0.054226
49 49.05542 0.003072 0.001131
MSE 310.1078 0.275474
RMSE 17.60988
Y(t)_1 FORE2 E^2 APE
12 58.4552 2158.085 3.871266
14 59.37365 2058.768 3.240975
18 51.63251 1131.146 1.868473
30 62.86735 1080.263 1.095578
55 55.48655 0.236734 0.008846
87 59.88169 735.4029 0.311705
14 93.13331 6262.081 5.652379
12 81.17044 4784.55 5.764204
11 63.26786 2731.929 4.751624
10 52.92589 1842.632 4.292589
13 59.39247 2152.262 3.568652
16 62.99984 2208.985 2.93749
MSE 2262.195 3.113648
RMSE 47.56254
Y(t) FITS E^2 APE
34 32.41689 2.506238 0.046562
25 29.41689 19.50892 0.176676
43 30.75022 150.057 0.284879
22 31.08356 82.511 0.412889
18 27.25022 85.56663 0.513901
24 39.91689 253.3474 0.663204
15 51.58356 1338.357 2.438904
69 41.75022 742.5503 0.394924
26 31.75022 33.06507 0.221162
17 25.41689 70.84403 0.495111
22 31.21273 84.87434 0.41876
21 31.62105 112.8068 0.505764
38 37.3168 0.466761 0.017979
33 34.3168 1.733964 0.039903
38 35.65013 5.521871 0.061839
41 35.98347 25.1656 0.122354
26 32.15013 37.82415 0.236544
35 44.8168 96.36957 0.28048
36 56.48347 419.5724 0.568985
63 46.65013 267.3181 0.259522
40 36.65013 11.2216 0.083747
39 30.3168 75.39795 0.222646
34 36.11264 4.463238 0.062136
32 36.52096 20.43911 0.14128
43 42.21671 0.613541 0.018216
42 39.21671 7.746696 0.066269
37 40.55004 12.60282 0.095947
53 40.88338 146.8125 0.228616
43 37.05004 35.40197 0.138371
46 49.71671 13.81394 0.080798
96 61.38338 1198.311 0.36059
65 51.55004 180.9013 0.206922
51 41.55004 89.30166 0.185293
34 35.21671 1.480386 0.035786
48 41.01255 48.82448 0.145572
51 41.42087 91.75965 0.187826
46 47.11662 1.246845 0.024274
43 44.11662 1.246845 0.025968
52 45.44996 42.90308 0.125962
52 45.78329 38.6475 0.119552
49 41.94996 49.70313 0.143878
50 54.61662 21.3132 0.092332
78 66.28329 137.2813 0.150214
51 56.44996 29.70201 0.106862
55 46.44996 73.10326 0.155455
49 40.11662 78.9144 0.181293
53 45.91246 50.23324 0.133727
54 46.32078 58.97034 0.142208
55 52.01653 8.901077 0.054245
54 49.01653 24.83495 0.092286
44 50.34987 40.3208 0.144315
46 50.6832 21.93236 0.101809
48 46.84987 1.322808 0.023961
70 59.51653 109.9031 0.149764
96 71.1832 615.8736 0.258508
39 61.34987 499.5165 0.573073
46 51.34987 28.62107 0.116301
44 45.01653 1.033339 0.023103
53 50.81237 4.785726 0.041276
53 51.2207 3.165924 0.033572
52 56.91644 24.17142 0.094547
53 53.91644 0.839869 0.017291
44 55.24978 126.5575 0.255677
46 55.58311 91.836 0.208328
53 51.74978 1.563058 0.023589
88 64.41644 556.1841 0.267995
62 76.08311 198.334 0.227147
37 66.24978 855.5494 0.790535
46 56.24978 105.0579 0.222821
43 49.91644 47.83719 0.160848
45 55.71228 114.753 0.238051
58 56.12061 3.53212 0.032403
136.6493 0.221855
11.68971
Y(t) FITS E^2 APE
41 61.81635 433.3206 0.507716
47 58.81635 139.6262 0.251412
49 60.14969 124.3155 0.227545
41 60.48302 379.5881 0.475196
62 56.64969 28.62584 0.086295
100 69.31635 941.4861 0.306836
44 80.98302 1367.744 0.840523
31 71.14969 1611.997 1.295151
31 61.14969 909.0037 0.972571
37 54.81635 317.4225 0.481523
44 60.61219 275.9649 0.37755
49 61.02052 144.4928 0.245317
MSE 556.1323 0.505636
RMSE 23.58246
Y(t) FITS_1 E^2 APE
34 33.25267 0.558496 0.02198
25 30.25267 27.59058 0.210107
43 31.58601 130.2792 0.265442
22 31.91934 98.39332 0.450879
18 25.29434 53.20741 0.405241
24 29.85994 34.33887 0.244164
15 23.19327 67.12969 0.546218
69 67.85994 1.299742 0.016523
26 32.58601 43.37549 0.253308
17 26.25267 85.61198 0.544275
22 32.06244 101.2527 0.457384
21 32.44291 130.9401 0.5449
38 37.81827 0.033025 0.004782
33 34.81827 3.30611 0.055099
38 36.1516 3.416566 0.048642
41 36.48494 20.38579 0.110123
26 29.85994 14.89912 0.148459
35 34.85994 0.019617 0.004002
36 43.69327 59.18642 0.213702
63 73.85994 117.9382 0.17238
40 37.1516 8.113357 0.07121
39 30.81827 66.94069 0.209788
34 36.62804 6.906583 0.077295
32 37.0085 25.08512 0.156516
43 42.38387 0.379618 0.014329
42 39.38387 6.844146 0.062289
37 40.7172 13.81759 0.100465
53 41.05053 142.7897 0.225462
43 34.42553 73.52145 0.199406
46 42.85994 9.859991 0.068262
96 82.69327 177.069 0.138612
65 57.85994 50.98049 0.109847
51 41.7172 86.17035 0.182016
34 35.38387 1.915091 0.040702
48 41.19363 46.32661 0.141799
51 41.5741 88.84757 0.184822
46 46.94947 0.901484 0.020641
43 43.94947 0.901484 0.022081
52 45.2828 45.1208 0.129177
52 45.61613 40.75377 0.122767
49 43.14006 34.33887 0.119591
50 41.80673 67.12969 0.163865
78 79.14006 1.299742 0.014616
51 36.9078 198.5901 0.276318
55 46.2828 75.9896 0.158495
49 39.94947 81.91218 0.184705
53 45.75923 52.42872 0.136618
54 46.1397 61.78434 0.145561
55 51.51506 12.14479 0.063363
54 48.51506 30.08454 0.101573
44 49.8484 34.20373 0.132918
46 50.18173 17.48686 0.090907
48 48.14006 0.019617 0.002918
70 62.30673 59.18642 0.109904
96 85.14006 117.9382 0.113124
39 41.4734 6.117686 0.06342
46 50.8484 23.50694 0.1054
44 44.51506 0.265289 0.011706
53 50.32483 7.15654 0.050475
53 50.7053 5.265669 0.043296
52 56.08066 16.65178 0.078474
53 53.08066 0.006506 0.001522
44 54.41399 108.4512 0.236682
46 54.74733 76.51571 0.190159
53 56.14006 9.859991 0.059246
88 101.3067 177.069 0.151213
62 69.14006 50.98049 0.115162
37 46.03899 81.70339 0.244297
46 55.41399 88.62326 0.204652
43 49.08066 36.97442 0.141411
45 54.89043 97.82053 0.219787
58 55.27089 7.448028 0.047054
48.96335 0.149632
6.997382
Y(t) CV TSR E^2 APE
41 60.64626 385.9754 0.479177
47 57.64626 113.3428 0.226516
49 58.97959 99.59221 0.203665
41 63.46185 504.5349 0.54785
62 55.08685 47.7916 0.111502
100 97.75352 5.046672 0.022465
44 48.18792 17.5387 0.09518
31 50.60459 384.3399 0.632406
31 59.97959 839.8166 0.934825
37 53.64626 277.0979 0.449899
44 59.45602 238.8887 0.351273
49 59.83649 117.4295 0.221153
MSE 252.6162 0.356326
RMSE 15.89391