Recent Researches in System Science

Transmission system contingency statistics analysis

NENAD SIJAKOVIC1, MIOMIR KOSTIC2, VALERI MLADENOV3
1
JP Elektromreza Srbije
Kneza Milosa 11, 11000 Belgrade
SERBIA
2
University of Belgrade
Bulevar kralja Aleksandra 73, 11000 Belgrade
SERBIA
3
Department of Theoretical Electrical Engineering
Technical University of Sofia
Sofia 1000, boulevard Kliment Ohridski 8
BULGARIA
nenad.sijakovic@ems.rs kostic@etf.rs valerim@tu-sofia.bg

Abstract: - Contingency statistics analysis can be used as a very powerful backup tool for system operation
planning, system development planning and decision making processes for transmission system operators
which are facing new challenges nowadays in a deregulated environment. It should also enable achieving
additional goals, like electricity market integration and RES implementation. One of the expected results of the
SEETSOC project is the development of a Congestion forecasting tool, the main part of which (the most
important for modern TSOs) is a module for Contingency statistics analysis. This module stores results from
contingency analysis and transmission capacity calculations performed every day and uses that data for
statistical calculations. The Contingency statistics analysis module presents, in a form of explicit signals, the
weak points in the monitored transmission network from the following two points of view: security of supply
and electricity trade restrictions caused by network limits. The usage of this module can provide TSO means to
enhance the security of supply and maximize the usage of the network, as well as maximize electricity
exchanges (trade) through the same transmission network.

Keywords: Transmission system, DACF procedure, Transmission capacity, Congestion management, Short
term planning, Mid/long term planning, Simulation signals, Contingency analysis

1 Introduction important software tools: 1. Congestion forecasting

The European commission and Energy community
(for non EU countries) have defined, through
ENTSO-E association, the following main goals that
have to be achieved by transmission system
operators in the near future: 1. Enhancement of the
security of the supply (SoS), 2. Implementation of
Internal Pan European electricity market, and 3.
Integration of renewable energy sources (through
202020 goals). In order to achieve these demanding
goals, TSOs must: 1. work together in a coordinated
manner on Congestion management, Inter TSO
compensation and Balancing mechanism, 2. develop
technical and financial procedures that will deal
with all of the above mentioned main goals, and 3.
develop and start using new software tools which
will allow implementation of new necessary
procedures [2].
To mitigate this problem, the SEETSOC project
deals with the development of the following very
tool (named TSPOT - Transmission System
Planning Operational Tool), and 2. Regional
Balancing Mechanism software. This paper deals
with a very interesting feature of the Congestion
forecasting tool, so-called, Contingency Statistics
Analysis module. Contingency statistics analysis
can be used as a very powerful backup tool for
system operation planning, system development
planning and decision making processes for
transmission system operators which are facing new
challenges nowadays in a deregulated environment
[2].
2 Contingency Analysis
Contingency analysis or "n-1" criteria checking
represents standard for transmission system steady
state security checks in overall European electricity
grid. As a technical standard, it is a part of the

ISBN: 978-1-61804-023-7 386

 Recent Researches in System Science
second and third steps of the following Congestion
management procedure [2]:
1. Planning and coordination of the
maintenance of the crucial network
elements in the region,
2. Calculation and allocation of cross border
transmission capacities on yearly, monthly,
weekly, daily and intra daily levels,
3. DACF (Day Ahead Congestion Forecast)
analysis, in which every day TSOs are
checking the system operation security
through “n-1” criteria on the merged
regional network model, and
4. Real time dispatching actions.
In the second step "n-1" criteria checking is used
as a signal of available transmission capacity in the
network due to which power exchange and
electricity trade has to be limited by putting limits
on available cross border transmission capacities. In
the third step, during the DACF procedure,
calculations experts in TSOs are performing, every
day, continuous security checks which can also
result in power exchange rejections, unit production
rescheduling and some other, from a financial point
of view, negative measures. To avoid the above
mentioned restrictions and measures, TSOs can start
using results collected within the two above
mentioned security analyses for better
understanding of the network features and system
operation and system development planning [3, 4].
3 Contingency Statistics Analysis
(CSA) Module
Statistical analyses performed using results from
"n-1" criteria checking and transmission capacity
calculations [5] enable TSOs to achieve additional
goals, like electricity market integration and RES
implementation. The CSA module stores results
from contingency analysis and transmission
capacity calculations performed every day and uses
that data for statistical calculations. The
Contingency statistics analysis module presents, in a
form of explicit signals (coming from forecasted
grid simulations), the weak points in the monitored
transmission network from the following two points
of view:
• security of supply, and
• electricity trade restrictions caused by
network limits.
3.1 CSA Module structure
Contingency Statistics Analysis Module consists of
the following parts [1]:
ISBN: 978-1-61804-023-7
1. Modular Custom Made CSA logic layer
(vb or c# class)
2. User Interface Sub module
3. Report Manager Sub module (Crystal
reports with possible export in .doc,
.pdf, .xls, .rtf data format, connection
with DB through Contingency Statistic
Analyzer data table, presentation of
"n-1" results in Data Grid View through
Common User Interface)
(Editor (User Interface) with tools for statistical
analysis of “n-1” criteria checking results (CA
outputs) with output in a form of data grids and
diagrams. Report manager for Contingency
Statistics Analyzer)
3.2 CSA Module scheme
The following diagram represents the Contingency
statistics analysis module scheme.
Fig. 1: Contingency statistics analysis module
scheme
3.3 CSA Module main functions
The Contingency Statistics Analysis Module main
functions are:

collection, storage and presentation of the
results of “n-1” criteria checking performed
by Contingency Analysis module and
Transmission Capacity module presented in
data grid view (table) with advanced
filtering and export functions:
- filter by contingency, outage or
overload,
- filter by type of the outage or
overload, connection to the
domestic or foreign element,
387
 Recent Researches in System Science

- filter by date and hour of the
tabular presentation of the outage

concerned contingency, appearance frequency in the selected time
- filter by overload level, period:
- presentation of the results of “n-1” - filter by definable time period and
criteria checking performed by CA selected hours,
module connected with the network - possibility to work with full or
topology at that specific model, filtered contingency list,
- presentation of the results of “n-1” - export of tables in a form of csv,
criteria checking performed by CA txt, doc, xls or pdf file format.
module connected with the
generation engagement at that
specific model,
- export of the overall list or a filtered
list in a form of csv, txt, doc, xls or
pdf file format.

Fig. 4: Contingency statistics analysis module -

outage frequency

tabular presentation of the overload

appearance frequency in the selected time
period:
Fig. 2: Contingency statistics analysis module - - filter by definable time period and
contingency list selected hours,
- possibility to work with full or a

tabular presentation of the contingency filtered contingency list,
appearance frequency in the selected time - export of tables in a form of csv,
period: txt, doc, xls or pdf file format.
- filter by definable time period and
selected hours,
- possibility to work with full or a
filtered contingency list,
- export of tables in a form of csv,
txt, doc, xls or pdf file format.

Fig. 5: Contingency statistics analysis module -

overload frequency

graphical presentation (diagrams) of the
statistical analysis results with a possibility
to use the following three diagram types
(each type contains three subtypes):
Fig. 3: Contingency statistics analysis module - 1. а) diagram showing appearance of
contingency frequency the contingencies during one year,

ISBN: 978-1-61804-023-7 388

 Recent Researches in System Science
b) diagram that shows appearance
of the outages during one year,
c) diagram that shows appearance
of the overload during one year.
2. а) diagram that shows contingency
appearance frequency in the
selected time period and hours,
b) diagram that shows outage
appearance frequency in the
selected time period and hours,
c) diagram that shows overload
appearance frequency in the
selected time period and hours.
3. diagram that shows overload levels
of the contingencies in the selected
time period and selected hours with
filter by outages and filter by
overloads,
Fig. 6: Contingency statistics analysis module -
example of graphical presentation

tree view that shows production per unit and
grid topology for each contingency stored in
DB. This feature allows experts to make a
connection between the detected network
problem and current situation in the network
at that time.
Fig. 7: Contingency statistics analysis module - tree
view.
ISBN: 978-1-61804-023-7
4 Conclusions
The usage of this module can provide TSO
means to enhance the security of supply and
maximize the usage of the network, as well as
maximize electricity exchanges (trade) through the
same transmission network. It is a powerful tool for
TSO experts that work on everyday system
operation planning, congestion management and
electricity market implementation issues, as well as
for system development planners.
Acknowledgement
The results presented in this paper are obtained
within the project 239453 (SEETSOC) of FP7-
ENERGY-2008-TREN-1.
References:
[1] N. Sijakovic, M. Kostic, V. Mladenov,
SEETSOC_Deliverable_D5.2.1_01.02.2011.
[2] N. Sijakovic, Load Flow calculation and
contingency analysis using PSA software tool,
ЕМS, Belgrade 2006.
[3] А. Kurcubic, B. Sumonja, N. Sijakovic, Ј.
Petrovic, Calculation of cross border
transmission capacities on tie lines of Serbia,
JUKO CIGRE Tara, 2006.
[4] B. Sumonja, А. Kurcubic, N. Sijakovic, Ј.
Petrovic, Possibility of Coordinated Auction
appliance in Serbian network and influence of
HPP Djerdap 1, JUKO CIGRE Tara, 2006.
[5] N Sijakovic, J Vicovac, M Stancevic, A
Kurcubic, Critical outages of Transmission
system elements in Serbian and neighbouring
networks concerning security and voltage
stability in Serbian network, JUKO CIGRE
Vrnjacka Banja 2007.
389