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    Duverger, 1976

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
    7 views44 pages

    Duverger, 1976.

    Uploaded by

    Carla Luisa
    Duverger, 1976

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
    of 44
    16 INTRODUCTION their continuing effects and a central focus of analysis on “ost” alternatives re- sulting fiom the accumulation of sefreinforcing processes. Second, because sequencing--the temporal order of events or prosesses~can be a crucial deter- 1ninant of important social outcornes: Third, because many important social causes and outcomes ae slow-moving they take place over quite extended pe- rods of time and are only likely to be adequatey explained (or in some cases ceven observed in the first place) if analysis are specifically attending to that pos- sibility. Finally, because the task of explaining institutional outcomes is better framed as an iste of institutional development rather than one of institutional selection, Institutional development, in tur, cannot be adequately treated with- ‘out attending to issues incorporating an extended time frame, including the role oftime horizons, unintended consequences, learning and competitive selection processes, and path dependence. eesou, Pur. Runes InTime: Hisroey, TASHITONS AnD Sow. AWALYSYS. renceTow Univeesiny PeesS, 2004 Chapter One POSITIVE FEEDBACK AND PATH DEPENDENCE, ‘And the frst step, s you know, it always what matters most, pertculrly when we ae dealing with hose who are young, and tender, That ste time when they are taking shape and wien ay impression we choose to make leaves 1 permanent mark. Plato, The Republic IMAGINE A VERY LARGE URN CONTAINING TWO BALLS, one black, one red! You remove one ball, and then retum it tothe um along with an additional ball of the same color. You repeat this process until the um fill up. What can we say about the eventual cstibution of colored balls in the urn? Or abouta series of trials io which we fll the um and then start over again one hundred times? * Incach individual trial we have no idea what the eventual ratio of ed to black balls will be; it could be 99.9 percent red, or 0.01 percent sed, or anything in between, If we were to run one hundred trials, we would probably get one hundred diferent outcomes. * Inany particular tral, the cto will eventually reach an equilbxium, Later «ays ina series contribute only minutely tothe disribution of alls in te urn. Thus the diribution sees down ont a table outcome. * Sequence is thus erucial. Barly drs in each tral, which have a consid- rable random element, have a powerful effect on which of the posible equilibria wil actually emerge. Mathematicians call this a Polya uin process. Its characteristic qualities stern fom the fact that an element of chance (or eccident) is combined with a deci sion rule that links current probabilities to the outcomes of preceding (parly random) sequences? Polya tum processes exhibit postive feedback, Each step The flowing dacusion eles heavily on Arthur 199, which calles his groundbreaking cxaysco increasing etme and ath dependence, aswell agon he wes Pal Davi (1955, 195,200), ho hasbeen an equalyinnportnt contrite othe eneging literate on pall-lpendentproceses “thi cae depicts a specie type of posve feedback paces, in which the probably «paca: la "dew reise equals the aio between te te alieratves inthe exiting population, hue £199) has shown that many ofthe features fice have a rete range of aplication, bol not all ofthen. tis cay model proceses with only two eqs (eg, Ul 197), which probably ‘come closet captrng the essence of many pal dependent process in the al word ae B CHAPTER ONE along a particular path produces consequences that increase the relative attas- tiveness of that path forthe next round, As such effects begin to accumulate, they generate a powerful cyele of elreinforcing activity, Pasitive feedback processes have quite intriguing characteristics, whi Arthur (1994) bas summarized at follows: 1. Cnpredicabity, Because etl events hive lage effects and are pany random, many outcomes may be possible. We eanrat predict ahead of time which ofthese possible end-siates wil be reached 2. Inflesbiity, The farther into the process we ate the harder it becomes to shift from one path to another. In applications to technology a given subsidy toa particular technique will be more likely to shiftthe ultimate ‘outcome ifit occurs early rather than later. Sufficient movement down ‘particular path may eventually “lock i” one solution? 3. Nenergodicity. Accidental event arly i 3 sequence do not cance out. ‘They eannot be treated (which isto say, ignored) as “nose,” because they feed back into future choices. Small events are remembered. 4. Polential path inefficiency, In the long run, the outcome that becomes ‘tablished may generate lower payol thax a foregone altemative would have. The process may be path inefficient Brian ‘To this one can add a general point of particular interest to social scientist: these are proceses where sequencing is citcal. Earlier events matter much ‘more than later ones, and hence dfierent sequences may produce diferent ou ‘comes. These ae processes where history rates ‘The Polya um ilistation captures essential elements of ‘path dependence”— 4 team that social scientss are increasingly inclined to apply to important socal processes. Claims of path dependence have: figured in both classic works of ‘comparative politics, such os Lipset and Rokkan’ analysis of Buropean pany sje tems (Lipset and Rokkan 1967), and more recent analyses on topics such ax labor insomporaton in Latin Ameriea (Collier and Collier 1991), the outcome of state-building processes in Europe (Ertman 1996), and the failure of the United States to develop national health inaurance (Flacker 1998), As in the Polya wn illustration, socal scientists generally invoke the notion cf path de- pendence to support afew key claims: specific raters of timing and sequence ‘mater; tarting from similar conditions a range of social outeoines is often pos- sible; large consequences may result fom relatively “small” or contingent ‘events; particular courses oF action, once introduced, can be virtually impossible to reverse; and consequently, political developments often punctuated by ext Thi negng tabi repress «cial dintion belwen psiive feedback processes and hte process that may generate no dab equ. eran ntveng dewson esque ferent amen, wih appiatons poles se Fearn 956, POSITIVE FEEDBACK, PATH DEPENDENCE 19 ical moment or junctaresthatshape the basic contours ofsocal fe (Baumgartner and jones 1993; Collerard Collier 1991; Ieaberry 1994; Krasner 1989). Allof these features stand in sharp contrast to prominent modes of argument and ex- planation in the social sciences, which atibute “lage” outcomes to “lage” ‘causes and emphasize the prevalence of unique, predictable political outcomes, the imelevance of timing and sequence, and the capacity of ational ators to de- sign and implement optimal solutions (gin their rescurces and consains) to the problems that confront them. If pa-

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