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without the written consent of J.P. Morgan.
We expect VPG to release a negative profit alert for preliminary FY18 earnings Hong Kong
next week given the much higher base in FY17. While consensus earnings are Asia Financials
likely subject to further downside risk, we believe current valuation has largely AC
Jemmy S Huang
priced in weak operating performance in 2H18. On the positive side, we expect
(886-2) 2725-9870
new initiatives could drive better portfolio growth in the coming year. We retain jemmy.s.huang@jpmorgan.com
our OW rating with new Dec-19 PT of HK$7.8. Bloomberg JPMA JHUANG <GO>
Dwindled performance fees upon challenging market conditions. Since J.P. Morgan Securities (Taiwan) Limited/ J.P.
Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited
NAVs for major funds at VPG are more than 10% below the high watermark
levels, we forecast muted performance fees in 2H18 and given increasing macro Leo Weng
uncertainties in the near future, earnings outlook for 1H19 is unlikely to be (852) 2800-8511
leo.weng@jpmorgan.com
promising either.
J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited
New initiatives should bode well for portfolio growth. VPG has received
Katherine Lei
MRF (Mutual Recognition of Funds) approval for its Classic Fund by the CSRC (852) 2800-8552
in Dec, which would facilitate AUM growth (up to the AUM size in HK) and its katherine.lei@jpmorgan.com
brand recognition on domestic retail investors in China. In addition, VPG will J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited
issue more private funds in China under the PFM (private fund management)
license and the private equity fund cooperating with China Education Group is Price Performance
penetration into US/Europe institutional investors; all these should help drive 9
decent AUM growth in FY19 if they materialize. HK$
7
MTM of seed capital investments as another earnings drag. VPG has
5
suffered MTM losses of HK$67m from seed capital investments into its own Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19
fund in 1H18 but given bigger decline on NAVs for most funds in 2H18 vs. 0806.HK share price (HK$)
1H18, we forecast MTM losses of HK$150m for FY18, in contrast to HSI (rebased)
YTD 1m 3m 12m
HK$200m gains in FY17. Abs -3.7% -17.4% -13.3% -38.3%
Retain OW. Our new PT is based on fair P/AUM of 10.3% and FY19E AUM Rel -0.7% -9.6% -5.8% -38.3%
per share of HK$76. Current valuation is close to the 2std below L-T average
and thus we see more upside than downside in the coming 12 months; we
believe further share price weakness due to negative profit alerts should result in
bargain hunting opportunities.
See page 7 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures.
J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that
the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single
factor in making their investment decision.
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Key catalysts for the stock price: Upside risks to our view: Downside risks to our view:
• Improved management fee margin • Better fund performance to exceed high watermark • Market downturn
• Expanded footprint, building franchise • Fund distribution expansion • Potential departure of team members
• Faster AUM growth • Fierce competition from US and Europe
asset management companies
Key financial metrics FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E Valuation and price target basis
Revenues (LC) 4,145 1,666 1,797 2,708 Our PT (Dec-19, P/AUM-derived) of HK$7.8 implies a P/AUM of 10.3% and
Revenue growth (%) 180.2% -59.8% 7.9% 50.7% P/E of 32x (FY19E).
EBITDA (LC) 2,207 334 387 601
EBITDA margin (%) 53.3% 20.0% 21.5% 22.2%
Tax rate (%) 14% 14% 14% 14%
Net profit (LC) 2,048 226 457 700
EPS (LC) 1.11 0.12 0.25 0.38
EPS growth (%) 1387.4% -89.0% 102.0% 53.2% PT Derivation
DPS (LC) 1.04 0.11 0.18 0.28 Risk-free rate 4%
BVPS (LC) 3.04 2.16 2.30 2.49 Equity premium 6%
Operating cash flow (LC mn) 387 2,082 376 110 Beta 1.5
Free cash flow (LC mn) 387 2,082 376 110 COE 13%
Interest cover (x) n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Growth 5%
Net margin (%) 49.4% 13.6% 25.4% 25.8% RoAUM 0.97%
Sales/assets (X) 0.77 0.29 0.39 0.53 AUM leverage (AE/AUM) 3.2%
Net debt/equity (%) -39.7% -55.8% -47.0% -20.1% Fair P/AUM 10.3%
ROA (%) 38% 4% 10% 14%
ROE (%) 44% 5% 11% 16% Fair value per share (FY19E) 7.8
Key model assumptions FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E
Performance assumption 26% -10% 5% 8%
Net fund flows assumption -2% 3% 10% 15%
Performance fees assumption 8% -1% 2% 6%
Source: Company and J.P. Morgan estimates. Source: Bloomberg, Company and J.P. Morgan estimates.
Sensitivity analysis Operating profit EPS JPMe vs. consensus, change in estimates
Sensitivity to FY18E FY19E FY18E FY19E EPS (LC) FY18E FY19E
Impact of each 5% increase in avg AUM 9% 8% 12% 6% JPMe old 0.44 0.58
Impact of each 1bp increase in
management fees 3% 3% 4% 2% JPMe new 0.12 0.25
Impact of 1ppt increase in fund return 0% 13% 0% 10% % chg -72% -57%
Consensus 0.34 0.41
Source: J.P. Morgan estimates. Source: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan estimates.
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Jan-14
May-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
May-15
Sep-15
Jan-16
May-16
Sep-16
Jan-17
May-17
Sep-17
Jan-18
May-18
Sep-18
AUM (US$mn) YoY change (%)
Source: Bloomberg
Source: Company data and J.P. Morgan
Figure 3: NAV of VPG High Dividend Stock Fund Figure 4: Quarterly cumulative net subscriptions on HK funds under
HK$ the MRF program
High
120 Watermark 14,000
100 12,000
80 10,000
60 8,000
6,000
40
4,000
20
2,000
-
-
Jan-14
May-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
May-15
Sep-15
Jan-16
May-16
Sep-16
Jan-17
May-17
Sep-17
Jan-18
May-18
Sep-18
Figure 5: Approved funds under MRF program Figure 6: P/AUM Chart of VPG
Approved 0.6
Year Approved Funds
2015 JPMorgan Asian Total Return Bond Fund 0.5
2015 Zeal Voyage China Fund
2015 Hang Seng China Enterprises Index ETF 0.4
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Valuation
Our price target is based upon P/AUM methodology (a variation of DDM method).
We use a fair P/AUM based multiple of 10.3%, derived from a COE of 13%, growth
of 5%, and RoAUM of 0.97%. Our PT (Dec-19, P/AUM-derived) of HK$7.8 implies
P/E of 32x (FY19E).
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Analyst Certification: The research analyst(s) denoted by an “AC” on the cover of this report certifies (or, where multiple research
analysts are primarily responsible for this report, the research analyst denoted by an “AC” on the cover or within the document
individually certifies, with respect to each security or issuer that the research analyst covers in this research) that: (1) all of the views
expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and (2) no part of
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expressed by the research analyst(s) in this report. For all Korea-based research analysts listed on the front cover, they also certify, as per
KOFIA requirements, that their analysis was made in good faith and that the views reflect their own opinion, without undue influence or
intervention.
Important Disclosures
Client: J.P. Morgan currently has, or had within the past 12 months, the following entity(ies) as clients: Value Partners Group Limited
(0806).
Client/Non-Investment Banking, Securities-Related: J.P. Morgan currently has, or had within the past 12 months, the following
entity(ies) as clients, and the services provided were non-investment-banking, securities-related: Value Partners Group Limited (0806).
Non-Investment Banking Compensation: J.P. Morgan has received compensation in the past 12 months for products or services
other than investment banking from Value Partners Group Limited (0806).
Other Significant Financial Interests: J.P. Morgan owns a position of 1 million USD or more in the debt securities of Value Partners
Group Limited (0806).
Company-Specific Disclosures: Important disclosures, including price charts and credit opinion history tables, are available for
compendium reports and all J.P. Morgan–covered companies by visiting https://www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures, calling 1-800-477-
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Value Partners Group Limited (0806) (0806.HK, 806 HK) Price Chart
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15
14
13
12
11 N HK$8.2 N HK$8 OW HK$9.3
10
9 Date Rating Share Price Price Target
Price(HK$) 8 (HK$) (HK$)
7
21-Apr-16 N 7.95 8.20
6
16-Aug-16 N 7.75 8.00
5
4 14-Dec-17 OW 7.79 9.30
3
2
1
0
Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan
16 16 16 16 17 17 17 17 18 18 18 18 19
Source: Bloomberg and J.P. Morgan; price data adjusted for stock splits and dividends.
Initiated coverage Jun 01, 2010.
The chart(s) show J.P. Morgan's continuing coverage of the stocks; the current analysts may or may not have covered it over the entire
period.
J.P. Morgan ratings or designations: OW = Overweight, N= Neutral, UW = Underweight, NR = Not Rated
Explanation of Equity Research Ratings, Designations and Analyst(s) Coverage Universe:
J.P. Morgan uses the following rating system: Overweight [Over the next six to twelve months, we expect this stock will outperform the
average total return of the stocks in the analyst’s (or the analyst’s team’s) coverage universe.] Neutral [Over the next six to twelve
months, we expect this stock will perform in line with the average total return of the stocks in the analyst’s (or the analyst’s team’s)
coverage universe.] Underweight [Over the next six to twelve months, we expect this stock will underperform the average total return of
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the stocks in the analyst’s (or the analyst’s team’s) coverage universe.] Not Rated (NR): J.P. Morgan has removed the rating and, if
applicable, the price target, for this stock because of either a lack of a sufficient fundamental basis or for legal, regulatory or policy
reasons. The previous rating and, if applicable, the price target, no longer should be relied upon. An NR designation is not a
recommendation or a rating. In our Asia (ex-Australia and ex-India) and U.K. small- and mid-cap equity research, each stock’s expected
total return is compared to the expected total return of a benchmark country market index, not to those analysts’ coverage universe. If it
does not appear in the Important Disclosures section of this report, the certifying analyst’s coverage universe can be found on J.P.
Morgan’s research website, www.jpmorganmarkets.com.
Coverage Universe: Huang, Jemmy S: Bank of China (BOCHK) (2388) (2388.HK), Bank of East Asia (0023) (0023.HK), CITIC
Securities - A (600030.SS), CITIC Securities - H (6030.HK), CTBC Financial Holding Co. (2891.TW), Cathay Financial Holdings
(2882.TW), Chailease Holding (5871.TW), China Galaxy Securities Co (6881) (6881.HK), China International Capital Corporation
(3908) (3908.HK), China Life (2823.TW), China Merchants Securities Company Ltd - A (600999.SS), China Merchants Securities
Company Ltd - H (6099.HK), Dah Sing Banking Group (2356) (2356.HK), Dah Sing Financial (0440) (0440.HK), E.Sun Financial
(2884.TW), Far East Horizon (3360) (3360.HK), First Financial Holding Co Ltd (2892.TW), Fubon Financial Holdings (2881.TW), GF
Securities Co Ltd - A (000776.SZ), GF Securities Co Ltd - H (1776.HK), Guotai Junan Securities - A (601211.SS), Guotai Junan
Securities - H (2611.HK), Haitong Securities - A (600837.SS), Haitong Securities - H (6837.HK), Hang Seng Bank (0011) (0011.HK),
Hua Nan FHC (2880.TW), Huatai Securities - A (601688.SS), Huatai Securities - H (6886.HK), Mega Holdings (2886.TW), Shin Kong
Financial Holdings (2888.TW), Sinopac Financial Holdings (2890.TW), Taishin Financial Holdings (2887.TW), Value Partners Group
Limited (0806) (0806.HK), Yuanta FHC (2885.TW)
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