Prospect Risking Page 1 of 1

Prospect Risking
The prospect risking section is a single screen in which risk factors are entered for the main elements of the play and
prospect.
The risking of an unproven (or partly proven) prospect is both the most difficult and the most sensitive of all the input
parameters.
REP divides the overall chance of success of a prospect into two main categories: Play Chance and Prospect Specific Chance.
Play chance is the chance that at least one prospect in the play to be discovered. If, in the play, some oil or gas has already
been discovered then play chance is 100%. Prospect specific chance is the chance that a specific prospect contains
hydrocarbons assuming that there is (or will be) at least one discovery in the play.
Play chance is divided into reservoir, seal and source chances.
Prospect specific chance is divided into trap, reservoir, seal and migration chance.
For each of these seven elements you should enter the chance as a percentage, with 100 indicating certainty of success.
As you change the numbers, the overall chances (play chance, prospect specific chance and prospect chance) are
automatically updated. The overall chance of success is the chance that the minimum amount of hydrocarbon will be found.
The concepts of play and prospect specific chance become especially relevant when you come to consolidate your results.
Note: REP has a number of alternative risking schemes that you can use. However, all share the same basic concept: the
overall chance of success of a prospect is divided into the two main categories of play chance and prospect specific chance.
Some explorationists are uncomfortable with the concept of play chance, and prefer to use only prospect specific chance. If
you are one of these, set play chance to be 100%. Others prefer different chance categories, or different nomenclature.
These can be set up in the site customization section. You should note, however, that the way a prospect is risked is
generally a matter of corporate policy, and - if you will forgive the warning - should only be changed with good reason.

file:///C:/logicomep/REP5/helpfiles/pr_risks.htm 26-Sep-17