LTE  and  the  1800  MHz  opportunity    
 
Northstream  White  Paper  
March  2012  

 
Executive  Summary  
About  this  Paper  
This   Northstream   white   paper   examines   the   take-­‐up   and   status   of  
LTE  two  years  after  the  first  commercial  launch  and  analyses  the  
key  aspects  that  will  determine  its  future  success.    
It  is  widely  recognised  that  mobile  data  usage  growth,  whether  on  
smartphones,   laptops   or   tablets,   will   continue.   In   such   a   market  
situation,   there   are   a   number   of   challenges   for   the   main  
stakeholders   to   cope   with,   operators,   equipment   suppliers   and  
regulators   alike.   Mobile   networks   will   need   to   accommodate  
significantly   different   volumes   and   types   of   traffic   than   today,  
adopt  continuously  evolving  technologies  and  make  more  flexible  
use  of  the  scarce  resource  of  radio  spectrum.    
Previous   Northstream   white   papers   have   discussed   the   generic  
opportunities  and  challenges   LTE  technology  brings   to  operators  
and  how  to  adopt  a  suitable  migration  strategy.  Two  of  the  major  
concerns  have  been  how  and  when  voice  services  could  be  offered  
and  the  availability  of  ample  device  portfolios.  Voice  over  LTE  will  
indeed   happen   soon,   and   could   bring   a   boost   to   operators’  
dwindling   voice   business,   but   that   is   a   topic   for   another   white  
paper.   In   this   paper   we   instead   put   our   focus   on   analysing   the  
critical  availability  of  suitable  and  plentiful  LTE  spectrum  and  how  
that   can   enable,   or   inversely   prohibit,   a   continued   strong   growth  
of  mobile  communication.    
 

Highlights  
LTE  is  recognised  as  the  future   mobile  technology  in   all   regions   of  the  world,  offering   high  enough   data  
speeds  and  spectrum  efficiency  to  satisfy  the  rising  data  traffic  needs  of  demanding  end  users  
The  two  key  enablers  for  the  adoption  and  growth  of  LTE  are:  1)  the  coordinated  availability  of  spectrum,  
network  solutions,  devices  and  end-­‐user  services,  and  2)  spectrum  refarming  flexibility  
There  are  several  spectral  options  for  LTE,   and  in  addition  to  the  earlier  recognised   700/800  and   2600  
MHz  bands,  one  trend  today  is  to  refarm  the  large  spectrum  resources  in  the  1800  MHz  band  for  LTE  
The  1800  MHz  band  is  widely  used  today  for  GSM  but  carries  several  advantages  that  m ake  it  suitable  for  
LTE,   among   them   its   ready   availability   in   many   regions   and   its   balanced   capabilities   to   provide   both  
capacity  and  coverage  
There   are   no   technological   barriers   preventing   deployment   of   LTE   in   1800   MHz,   and   today   already   15  
operators   have   commercially   launched   LTE   in   1800   MHz,   with   several   other   operators   conducting   on-­‐
going   trials,   studies   or   consultations.   Concurrently,   the   number   of   available   LTE   devices   is   rapidly  
increasing,  including  also  support  for  1800  MHz.  

 
 
1
 
  

 
1. Introduction   In  many  European  countries,  the  900  MHz  band  has  been  
made  technology  agnostic,  and  while  it  is  still  widely  used  
1.1. Growth  in  data  traffic   for  GSM  in  Europe,  operators  are  slowly  starting  to  reuse  
the   band   to   address   the   needs   of   the   3G   market   and   to  
The   telecom   industry   has   an   agreed   understanding   that  
complement   the   main   2100   MHz   band.   However,   there   is  
the  forecasts  of  massive  growth  in  mobile  data  traffic  are  
little  evidence  of  operators  investing  into  deploying  LTE  in  
materializing.   Mobile   data   traffic   is   expected   to   grow   to  
the  900  MHz  band  in  short  to  mid  term.  
10.8   exabytes   per   month   by   2016,   an   18-­‐fold   increase  
from  20111.     A   recent   trend   is   to   use   the   1800   MHz   band   for   LTE  
deployments.   One   reason   is   that   the   1800   MHz   band   is  
The   major   driving   forces   behind   the   growth   in   data   traffic,  
wider  (has  more  capacity)  than  700/800  or  900  MHz  and  
besides  the  increasing  number  of  mobile  connections,  are  
offers   a   more   cost   efficient   way   to   cover   large   areas   than  
the  increased  availability  of  higher  speed  mobile  networks  
the   higher   LTE   dedicated   2.6   GHz   band.   There   are  
and   the   proliferation   of   smartphones.   And   importantly,  
operators   from   all   regions   of   the   world,   except   the  
data   usage   per   connection   is   rising   as   a   result   of   data-­‐
Americas,   implementing   or   trialling   LTE   in   1800MHz.   In  
intense   applications   and   content,   cloud   services   and   the  
North  America  the  1800/1900  MHz  band  is  dedicated  for  
evolution  of  data  price  plans.    
GSM,   similarly   to   the   900   MHz   band   in   Europe   and   until  
Satisfying   the   rising   data   traffic   needs   of   demanding   GSM   usage   decreases   significantly,   these   two   bands   will  
consumer   and   business   users   by   providing   high   quality   not   be   the   short   term   preferred   options   for   LTE  
mobile   broadband   offers   great   business   opportunities   for   deployments.    
the   telecommunications   industry.   However,   to   cater   for  
Europe
and   monetize   on   this   need   while   keeping   competitive   ! 800 MHz
! 1800 MHz
advantages   and   profitability   at   reasonable   levels,   is   ! 2600 MHz
challenging.   In   order   to   deliver   the   fast   and   high   quality  
APAC
mobile   experience   to   all   users,   technologies   such   as   LTE   ! 700 MHz
NA ! 800 MHz
and   later   on   LTE   Advanced   are   needed,   together   with   ! 700 MHz ! 1800 MHz
! AWS ! 2100 MHz
efficient  and  maximised  spectrum  usage.   ! 2600 MHz
Middle East
! 900 MHz
1.2. LTE  spectrum     Lat. Am. ! 1800 MHz
! 700 MHz ! 2300 MHz
! AWS ! 2600 MHz
Most  people  in  the  industry  agree  that  LTE  is  the  next  step   ! 2600 MHz
in   the   network   evolution.   LTE   provides   advantages   such    
as   higher   capacity,   data   rates   as   high   as   100Mbps   (DL)/50  
Mbps   (UL),   lower   latency   and   improved   system   design.   Figure  1:  Key  LTE  spectrum  bands  by  region  
The  data  rates  can  theoretically  be  even  higher  if  MIMO  is  
1.3. LTE  technology  adoption  
also  applied.  
When  comparing  the  number  of  operator  commitments,  
Compared   to   2G/3G   standards,   LTE   is   designed   to   be   LTE  is  the  fastest  developing  mobile  technology  ever.  By  
deployed   in   a   variety   of   spectrum   ranges   in   different   the  end  of  2011  there  were  a  total  of  48  commercial  LTE  
frequency   bands.   For   the   initial   LTE   launches,   outside   US   launches  worldwide.  301  operators  are  investing  in  LTE  in  
and  Japan,  the  2.6  GHz  band  has  been  the  most  popular  as   95  countries,  forecasted  to  result  in  a  cumulative  total  of  
this   band   is   available   for   mobile   services   in   most   regions   128  commercial  LTE  networks  by  the  end  of  20125    (and  
of   the   world   and   hence   internationally   identified   as   the   by  the  time  you  are  reading  this  paper,  all  those  numbers  
primary   band   for   LTE2.   However,   LTE   can   and   will   be   have  likely  multiplied).  
deployed   in   existing   2G   and   3G   bands,   in   the   digital  
dividend   bands3   (700   or   800   MHz   depending   on   the  
region),  as  well  as  in  the  AWS  band4  (1700/2100  MHz)  in  
the   US   and   Canada.   NTT   DoCoMo  in   Japan   is   also   using   the  
2100  MHz  band  for  LTE.  

                                                                                                                       
1
 Cisco,  Feb  2012,  ”Cisco  VNI:  Global  Mobile  Data  Traffic  Forecast  
Update,  2011  –  2016”  
2
 Dotecon,  Jun  2010,  ”Fixed  or  flexible?  A  survey  of  2.6GHz  spectrum  
awards”  
3
 Europe  –  800  MHz  band  (790  –  862  MHz);  US  -­‐  700  MHz  band  (698  
–  806  MHz,  discontinuous);  APAC  –  700  MHz  band,  Source:  GSMA                                                                                                                          
 GSA,  Mar.  2012,  ”Evolution  to  LTE  report”  
4 5
 Known  as  UMTS  band  IV  (UL:  1710-­‐1755  MHz,  DL:  2110-­‐2155  MHz)  
2  
 
  

  ensure   that   operators   have   the   spectrum   they   need   for  

new   technologies   such   as   LTE   and   at   the   same   time  
Commercial*LTE*Launches* introduce   the   flexibility   that   secures   a   continuously  
80" optimal   usage   of   the   natural   resource.   These   goals   can  
only  be  achieved  by  making  spectrum  technology  agnostic.  
60"
The   two   key   enablers   we   address   above   are   inter-­‐
40" dependent   but   with   the   difference   that   the   coordinated  
availability  of  network  equipment,  devices  and  services  is  
20" market   and   industry   driven,   whereas   the   spectrum   is  
controlled   by   the   governments,   making   them   key  
0" gatekeepers   for   the   success   of   LTE.   As   all   cellular  
2009" 2010" 2011" 2012e"
  technologies  eventually  face  the  end  of  their  life  cycles,  an  
Figure  2:  Commercial  LTE  launches  globally  (GSA)   early  refarming  of  spectrum  is  crucial  to  flexibly  phase  out  
  the  legacy  technologies.  

2. Key  enablers  for  LTE  take-­‐up    

Learning   from   2G   and   3G   (and   the   sub-­‐steps   of   each   3. Technology  and  spectrum  analysis  
generation),   Northstream   sees   two   key   enablers   that   are  
critical  to  a  successful  take-­‐up  of  LTE:   3.1. 2.6  GHz  and  700/800  MHz  bands  
 
1)  Coordinated  availability  of  eco-­‐system  components;   As   mentioned   in   the   previous   chapter,   LTE   can   be  
and     deployed  in  various  frequency  bands  –  3GPP  has  identified  
over   20   paired   (FDD)   and   11   unpaired   (TDD)   bands   for  
2)  Spectrum  refarming  flexibility  
the   use   of   LTE   worldwide.   National   and   regional  
In   order   to   avoid   the   relatively   slow   initial   adoption   differences  of  what  can  be  used  do  indeed  exist.  But  given  
experienced   with   3G,   coordinated   availability   of   spectrum,   the   expected   traffic   growth   no   band   alone   can   provide  
network   solutions,   devices   and   end-­‐user   services   needs   to   sufficient   amount   of   spectrum,   so   combining   different  
be   achieved   (see   Figure   3).   The   scarcity   of   the   radio   bands  will  be  critical.    
spectrum  often  leads  to  high  prices  in  spectrum  auctions,  
and  to  justify  large  spectrum  investments,  operators  need   The   2.6   GHz   band   (2500-­‐2690   MHz)   is   particularly  
to  be  sure  that  at  the  right  point  in  time  there  are  network   suitable   to   provide   capacity   in   traffic-­‐intense   urban  
components   as   well   as   devices   available   to   offer   hotspots,   but   its   limitations   on   wide   area   coverage   and  
commercial  services.     indoor  penetration  often  necessitate  this  band  to  be  used  
in  combination  with  a  lower  spectrum  band  for  more  cost  
  efficient  network  build  out.  The  widespread  support  of  2.6  
GHz   naturally   provides   opportunities   for   economies   of  
Networks
  scale,  ease  of  roaming  and  interoperability  of  devices  and  
services.  Spectrum  in  this  band  has  already  been  licensed  
 
in   many   countries   in   western   Europe   and   Asia   Pacific,   and  
  although   auctions   are   still   pending   in   many   other  
Spectrum countries,   2.6   GHz   is   going   to   be   the   globally   recognized  
LTE  band.  

Services Devices The   transition   from   analogue   to   digital   TV   has   freed  

spectrum   in   the   700/800   MHz   to   be   allocated   for  
alternative   use,   such   as   deployment   of   LTE.   Spectrum   in  
  these   lower   bands   is   highly   valuable   due   to   superior  
coverage   capabilities   (especially   useful   for   suburban   and  
Figure  3:  Coordinated  availability  
rural   areas)   and   the   ability   to   penetrate   well   into  
With   the   rapid   pace   of   market   and   technology   buildings.   But   the   regulatory   process   of   freeing   up   and  
development   where   2G,   3G   and   now   4G   networks   are   licensing  spectrum  in  700/800  MHz  is  slow  and  complex,  
simultaneously   in   commercial   use,   operators’   spectrum   and   in   many   countries   these   bands   are   not   an   option   for  
needs   change   and   evolve.   The   traditional   practice   of   LTE   deployment   for   many   years   to   come.   In   addition,  
regulators   locking   spectrum   for   the   use   of   a   specific   these   bands   are   not   particularly   wide   and   may   not   be  
technology   alone,   no   longer   reflects   market   needs   and   enough   to   satisfy   the   capacity   needs.   In   the   US,   this  
prohibits  efficient  use  of  the  spectrum.  Regulators  need  to   spectrum   was   released   early   and   today   there   is   a   large-­‐

3  
 
  

scale   deployment   of   LTE   in   the   700   MHz   band.   In   Asia   areas.   LTE   in   1800   MHz   allows   to   re-­‐use   optimally   located  
Pacific,   Latin   America   and   the   Middle   East   and   Africa   existing  GSM  sites,  thus  reducing  CAPEX  due  to  savings  in  
many   of   the   700/800   MHz   band   auctions6   are   not   taking   resources   otherwise   spent   on   building   new   sites.  
place   until   2012   –   2015.   In   Europe,   the   situation   is   split   as   According   to   GSA12,   it   can   be   as   much   as   60%   less  
few   countries   in   northern   and   western   Europe   have   expensive  to  cover  the  same  area  with  LTE  1800  MHz  than  
already  licensed  both  800  and  2600  MHz  while  other  parts   with   2.6   GHz.   Fewer   sites   naturally   also   result   in   lower  
of  Europe  are  yet  to  start  the  process.   electricity,   maintenance,   rental   and   other   operational  
costs.    
3.2. 1800  MHz  band  
  In   countries   where   2.6   GHz   and/or   the   700/800   MHz  
The   fact   that   2.6   GHz   and   700/800   MHz   bands   are   not   bands   have   not   been   licensed   yet   (or   where   one   or   more  
available   in   all   regions   creates   a   higher   demand   for   LTE-­‐ operators   have   no   such   license),   1800   MHz   gives   the  
suitable   spectrum   than   there   is   supply.   Even   in   countries   opportunity   to   deploy   LTE   in   line   with   market   needs.  
where   spectrum   in   these   bands   has   been   licensed,   there   is   Needless   to   say,   delays   in   LTE   deployment   can   hinder  
ambition   to   deploy   LTE   also   in   other   frequency   bands.   Re-­‐ growth   and   hurt   the   interests   of   both   operators   and  
use  of  existing  2G  and  3G  bands  such  as  900,  1800  or  2100   consumers.    
MHz  for  LTE  is  already  reality  in  some  markets  and  under  
consideration   in   others.     The   1800   MHz   spectrum   band,   in   Sites   equipped   with   software   to   switch   between  
particular,   has   come   into   focus   and   makes   a   strong   case   technologies   can   be   remotely   controlled   as   end   users’  
worth  evaluating.   needs   evolve.   This   way   the   spectrum   currently   used   for  
GSM,  for  example,  can  be  flexibly  and  gradually  moved  to  
1800   MHz   is   one   of   the   largest   available   cellular   blocks   LTE   as   GSM   usage   decreases,   even   momentarily   to   cater  
with   a   significant   amount   of   spectrum   in   many   regions.   for  short  term  needs  and  specifics.  
Even   though  it  may   take  time  before   this   band  is  exploited  
to   its   full   potential   for   LTE7,   Northstream   believes   1800  
Key properties of LTE 1800 MHz
MHz   will   be   an   important   LTE   band   in   particular   in  
Europe   and   Asia   Pacific,   but   likely   also   elsewhere,   as   it   !  Good availability of the spectrum
!  In total 2 x 75 MHz available in most markets
offers  a  balanced  combination  of  coverage  and  capacity.     !  Mainly in slots of 10 MHz or more

Today,   the   1800   MHz   spectrum   band   is   widely   used   for   !  Offers balanced combination of coverage and
GSM   and   nearly   half   of   the   world’s   800+   operators   (351   capacity
!  Increased coverage (2x the coverage of 2.6
mobile   operators   in   148   countries)   already   have   licenses  
GHz)
for   this   band8.   Operators’   spectrum   portfolios   vary   of  
course;   for   some   operators,   1800   MHz   is   their   only   asset   !  Less regulatory barriers
!  Accelerates the deployment of LTE (auctions
while   others   use   it   to   complement   GSM   in   900   MHz.   As   3G   of 2.6 GHz and/or 700/800 MHz pending)
gradually   replaces   GSM   traffic,   it   is   logical   that   the   GSM  
!  Possibility to reuse optimally located BTS’s
spectrum  is  freed  up  for  use  of  either  3G  or  LTE,  or  both.    
(optimal coverage)
 
3.3. Characteristics  and  key  properties  of  LTE  1800  
MHz     Table  1:  Key  properties  of  LTE  1800  MHz  
 
One  of  the  specific  advantages  of  the  1800  MHz  band  (see   3.4. Refarming  of  spectrum  in  1800  MHz  for  LTE  
Table   1)   is   its   size   -­‐   2   x   75   MHz   in   most   markets.   The  
Already   in   2009,   the   EU   issued   a   decision13   to   allow   the  
spectrum  is  often  in  slots  of  10  MHz  or  wider,  typically  not  
use   of   UMTS   in   900   and   1800   MHz   as   a   technology   that  
fragmented  and  often  only  partially  utilized9.  For  example,  
can  coexist  with  GSM.  The  decision  was  complemented  in  
in   the   six   key   European   markets10,   85%   of   the   operators  
April  2011  to  include  4G  and  specific  technical  guidelines  
who  have  assets  in  the  1800MHz  band,  have  them  in  slots  
on  frequency  separation  between  GSM  and  LTE,  UMTS  or  
of  10  MHz  or  wider11.    
WiMax   when   these   networks   are   deployed   in   proximity.  
 
The   better   coverage   capabilities   of   1800   MHz   make   this   However,   the   regulatory   landscape   in   Europe   is   very  
band   a   good   complement   to   LTE   2.6   GHz   particularly   for   a   fragmented   and   although   many   EU   countries   have  
cost-­‐efficient   deployment   of   LTE   in   rural   and   suburban   acknowledged   this   decision   and   allow   technology  
neutrality   in   900   and   1800   MHz,   full   Europe   wide  
                                                                                                                       
6 refarming  will  take  some  time.    
 GSMA,  2011,  “GSMA:  Digital  Dividend”  
7
 It  is  predicted  by  Informa  (2011)  that  7%  of  global  LTE  subscriptions    
will  be  in  the  1800  MHz  band  in  2016    
8
 GSMA,  Jul  2011,  “Mobile  Broadband  in  the  1800MHz  Band”  
9
 Ericsson,  Jul  2011,  ”Mobile  Broadband  in  1800  MHz  Spectrum”                                                                                                                          
12
10
 France,  Germany,  Italy,  Spain,  Sweden,  and  UK    GSA,  Nov  2011,  ”Embracing  the  1800  MHz  opportunity”  
13
11
 ECO,  Jan  2012,  “The  licensing  of  Mobile  bands  in  CEPT”    EU  Commission  Decision  2009/766/EC13  
4  
 
  

Potential   setbacks   can   arise   if   refarming   1800   MHz    

impacts  the  national  market  and  its  competition  landscape   As   for   any   refarming,   using   1800   MHz   for   LTE   poses  
as   spectrum   is   not   always   equally   distributed   among   potential   technical   and   deployment   related   challenges.  
operators   (e.g.   Austria,   the   Netherlands,   UK,   etc.).   This   Their   extent   naturally   depends   on   the   situation   in   the  
complexity,  however,  should  not  stop  the  process;  merely   particular  country.    
delay   deploying   LTE   in   the   1800   MHz   band   in   the   short  
run.   With   LTE   Advanced   in   sight,   deploying   LTE   to   its   full  
  potential  would  require  ample  spectrum  resources  -­‐  with  
In   Asia,   many   countries   already   allow   or   consider   to   bandwidths   of   10   to   20   MHz   the   benefits   are   best  
permit  refarming  of  1800  MHz,  though  not   yet  China   and   leveraged,   at   least   when   it   comes   to   future   bandwidth  
India   who   seem   not   to   have   refarming   of   1800   MHz   on   intensive   services.   However,   the   flexibility   of   LTE   allows  
their  agenda,  likely  due  to  continued  GSM  growth  and  the   the   technology   to   be   implemented   even   in   lesser  
focus  on  2300  and  2600  MHz  bands  for  LTE.       bandwidths   such   as   1.4,   3   and   5   MHz.   The   smaller  
  bandwidth  naturally  affects  the  capacity  and  speed,  but  on  
LTE   has   been   commercially   launched   in   1800   MHz   the   other   hand   -­‐   and   herein   lies   a   strong   advantage   -­‐   it  
spectrum  in  12  countries  by  15  operators14  (See  Table  2).   enables   efficient   spectrum   usage   and   tailored   frequency  
Giant   multi-­‐country   operators   such   as   Deutsche   Telekom   scenarios.   Still,   the   capacity,   or   data   speed   is   essentially  
have   launched   LTE   1800   MHz,   thus   paving   the   way   for   proportional   to   the   bandwidth   in   use.   For   example,   if   20  
smaller   operators   and   communicating   to   the   device   MHz   bandwidth   gives   90   Mbps,   3   MHz   would   give   an  
market   that   LTE   1800   MHz   is   a   true   and   immediate   adequate  13  Mbps.    
option.  
Another   question   regarding   spectrum   refarming   for   LTE  
In   addition   to   the   commercially   launched   LTE   1800   MHz   in   1800   MHz   (or   refarming   in   general)   is   the   potential  
network   deployments,   trials,   studies   and   consultations   degradation   of   existing   GSM   services.   Wireless   solutions  
have   been   or   are   being   conducted   in   over   25   countries,   are   always   affected   by   interference   from   other   usage   of  
including   Brazil,   France,   Sweden,   and   the   UK.   the  spectrum,  and  traditionally  guardbands  have  been  set  
  in   between   adjacent   spectrum   bands   to   avoid   interference  
of   different   radio   technologies.   Although   technology  
Operator Country Launch Coverage advancements   allow   narrower   guardbands,   inter-­‐   but  
(at launch)
more  importantly  intra-­‐band  interference  becomes  a  non-­‐
Aero2 / Poland Sep 2010 3 cities
Mobyland negligable   consideration   when   1800   MHz   is   gradually  
transformed  from  GSM  to  LTE  use.    
Omnitel Lithuania April 2011 5 cities
M1 Singapore June 2011 Financial However,  GSM  and  LTE  can  well  coexist  in  the  same  band,  
district
even  in  multi-­‐operator  uncoordinated  operations  200  kHz  
DT Germany July 2011 1 city separation   between   the   channel   edges   is   sufficient   to  
LMT Latvia May 2011 1 city prevent   interference15.   As   discussed   above   LTE   can   be  
TeliaSonera Finland Aug 2011 2 cities deployed   with   as   little   spectrum   as   1.4   MHz   allowing   co-­‐
existence   even   in   fairly   narrow   bands.   When   spectrum   is  
Zain Saudi Arabia Sep 2011 3 cities
used   in   coordinated   operation   no   channel   separation   is  
Telstra Australia Sep 2011 Capital CBDs,
+30 regional
needed15   as   operators   can   minimise   the   network   quality  
centres impact   by   careful   network   planning.   Interference   issues  
Telia Denmark Oct 2011 -
can   also   be   mitigated   with   LTE   specific   interference   filters  
in   place.   In   either   case,   the   ability   to  successfully   manage  
Elisa Finland Nov 2011 -
the   two   technologies   in   the   same   band   is   important,   as  
CSL Hong Kong Nov 2011 - GSM  traffic,  will  still  be  a  significant  technology  for  several  
DNA Finland Dec 2011 4 cities years  to  come.  
SingTel Singapore Dec 2011 City centre
Albeit   the   challenges   discussed   above   need   to   be  
T-Mobile Hungary Jan 2012 10 districts in
capital addressed   by   operators,   none   of   these   constitutes   a  
technological   barrier,   and   the   advantages   of   deploying  
KT South Korea Jan 2012 1 city
  LTE   in   1800   MHz   are   significant   and   outweigh   the  
potential  drawbacks.  
Table  2:  LTE  1800  MHz  commercial  launches  

3.5. Potential  challenges  to  deploying  LTE  in  1800                                                                                                                          

15
 CEPT/ECC,  Nov  2010,  “Compatibility  study  for  LTE  and  WiMAX  
MHz   operating  within  the  bands  880-­‐915  MHz  /  925-­‐960  MHz  and  1710-­‐
                                                                                                                        1785  MHz  /  1805-­‐1880  MHz  (900/1800  MHz  bands)”  
 GSA,  Mar.  2012,  ”Evolution  to  LTE  Report”;  Northstream  research  
14

5  
 
  

3.6 Spectrum  portfolio  strategies   4. Device  and  end-­‐user  services  availability  

When  reviewing  the  case  for  deploying  LTE  in  1800  MHz,   4.1. LTE  1800  MHz  devices  and  chipsets  
it  is  important  to  evaluate  it  in  the  context  of  an  operator’s    
overall   spectrum   portfolio   and   network   technology   The  high  spectrum  flexibility  and  adaptability  of  LTE  is  not  
strategy.   One   sample   illustration   on   how   to   exploit   only  an  advantage  -­‐  the  flipside  is  the  challenge  for  device  
spectrum  efficiently  can  be  seen  in  Figure  4  below.     and   chipset   vendors.   There   is   widespread   industry  
acknowledgement   that   multi-­‐band   multi-­‐mode   devices  
Operators  have  two  practical  alternatives  of  how  to  use   that  can  seamlessly  operate  in  various  modes  (such  as  LTE  
their  1800  MHz  spectrum:  Continue  to  use  solely  for  GSM,   FDD,   LTE   TDD,   GSM,   HSPA/and   or   CDMA   EV   DO   as   well   as  
or  gradually  deploy  LTE  in  co-­‐existence.   Wi-­‐Fi   and   GPS)   and   in   multiple   frequency   bands   are  
needed   in   order   to   ensure   smooth   services   both   in   all  
Provided   the   regulator   permits   technology   neutrality,   situations   in   the   home   country   and   when   roaming  
choosing   between   these   alternatives   is   essentially   a   internationally.  We  are  still  at  the  early  stages  of  LTE,  and  
commercial   decision.     The   route   an   operator   selects   is   although  more  than  half  of  the  LTE  mobile  devices  support  
largely   dependent   upon   the   access   to   and   amount   of   2.6   only   a   single   band,   there’s   still   an   encouraging   (ca.)   20%  
GHz  and  700/800  MHz  spectrum.     which  are  dual  band  and  over  25%  support  three  bands  or  
more.17   There   are   strong   reasons   to   believe   that   devices  
In   theory,   there   is   a   third   option   -­‐   to   deploy   3G,   but   in   will  increasingly  carry  multi-­‐band  chipsets.  
reality  operators  have  not  chosen  to  deploy  3G  in  the  1800  
MHz   band   and   the   device   ecosystem   is   currently   not   Technology  development  has  allowed  chipsets  and  devices  
supporting  such  a  choice.     to   support   greater   ranges   of   both   multi-­‐mode   and   multi-­‐
band   systems.   Even   though   it   is   technically   possible   to  
In   the   long   run,   as   3G   will   eventually   be   phased   out,   include   “everything”,   in   reality   device   vendors   are   facing  
operators   can   start   to   reuse   the   900   MHz   spectrum   for   the   decision   of   how   many   combinations   of   technologies  
LTE.   The   time   frame   is   uncertain,   but   in   the   future   LTE   and   frequency   bands   to   incorporate   in   a   single   device.   The  
900  MHz  will  catch  up  with  LTE  1800  Mhz.     trade-­‐off   is   typically   the   physical   size   of   the   device,   the  
BoM,   the   power   consumption   and   possibly   also  
Operators   may   also   re-­‐allocate   GSM   traffic   between   900   performance   degradations.   Nevertheless,   the  
and   1800   MHz   in   order   to   continue   serving   existing   GSM   advancements   in   chipsets   and   devices   have   been  
customers  while  reusing  spectrum  in  these  bands  for  new   impressive  and,  it  is  expected  that  the  1800  MHz  band  will  
technologies.     be  widely  supported  in  most  LTE  devices.    

These   are   of   course   simplified   examples,   and   in   reality   the   In   fact,   the   availability   of   devices   supporting   LTE   1800  
options   are   manifold,   driven   by   spectrum   assets.   MHz   is   rapidly   increasing.   Even   though   most   LTE   network  
Operators’   choices   will   be   based   on   a   combination   of   the   launches  so  far  have  been  in  the  2600  and  700  MHz  bands,  
regulatory  situation,  the  market  needs,  and  the  existing  as   ca.   20%18   of   all   the   LTE   devices   available   on   the   market  
well   as   potential   spectrum   allocations.   But   in   the   end,   today  are  LTE  1800  MHz  compatible19.    
having   the   flexibility   of   choosing   the   optimal   technology  
for   any   and   all   spectrum   assets   allows   operators   to   focus  
on   the   commercial   aspects   and   satisfying   customer   LTE$1800$MHz$Devices$
Tablet'
demand  and  growth.   Smartphone' 4%'
8%'
Urban Suburban Rural
Router'
32%'
Module'
26%'
700/800 MHz LTE
900 MHz GSM/3G
1800 MHz LTE/GSM Dongles'
30%'
2100 MHz 3G
                                             
2600 MHz LTE  
16 Figure  5:  LTE  1800  device  types  (GSA)  
Figure  4:  Evolution  of  frequency  band  allocation  
                                                                                                                       
17
   Informa,  Aug  2011,  ”A  global  analysis  of  LTE  spectrum  
  requirements  and  business  models”  
18
 If  devices  targeted  for  the  US  market  (700  MHz  band  devices  –
                                                                                                                        mainly  single  band)  are  excluded,  the  percentage  of  LTE  1800  devices  
16
 Based  on  data  from  Ericsson,  ”Mobile  Broadband  in  1800  MHz   is  much  higher  (ca.  40%)  
19
spectrum”,  Jul  2011      GSA,  Jan  2012,  “Report:  Status  of  the  LTE  Ecosystem”  
6  
 
  

One   challenge   with   respect   to   smartphones   has   been   to  

merge   3G   and   4G   into   a   single   chipset,   which   would   Mobile'Data'Services'in'2016'
overcome  some  of  the  shortcomings  above.  Manufacturers   Mobile'Gaming'
Mobile'M2M' 1.1%' Mobile'VoIP'
(e.g.   HTC   with   Thunderbolt)   have   had   to   strike   a   balance   4.7%' 0.3%'
Mobile'File'Sharing'
between  the  design  and  size  in  order  to  allocate  a  separate   3.3%'
space   for   an   LTE   chipset.   In   addition   to   the   phone   size,  
battery-­‐life   is   also   affected.   Nevertheless,   leading   device  
vendors   such   as   Samsung   have   launched   smartphones  
supporting   LTE   and   the   volumes   are   increasing.   Chipset   Mobile'Web/Data'
vendors   are   already   offering   solutions   that   enable   dual   20.0%'

mode  HSPA  and  LTE  1800  MHz  (Qualcomm,  for  example).  

Mobile'Video'
70.6%'
In   the   past   year   the   LTE   device   range   has   more   than   ten  
folded20.   Given   that   the   proportion   of   LTE   1800   MHz  
capable  devices  has  increased  within  the  overall  growth  in  
LTE   devices,   and   given   the   operator   interest,   it   is   fair   to  
assume   that   support   for   1800MHz   in   LTE   devices   will            
become  “standard”,  thus  supporting  the  adoption  of  1800   Figure  6:  Mobile  Data  services  in  2016  (Cisco)  
MHz  as  a  major  band  for  LTE.  
Even  though  today  3G  can  accommodate  comparable  data  
rates   to   LTE   (when   deployed   in   small   bandwidth),   going  
4.2. End-­‐user  data  services  
  forward   the   greater   efficiency   of   LTE   networks   will  
As   the   final   component   in   the   key   enablers,   end-­‐user   provide  good  opportunities  for  the  evolution  of  a  range  of  
services   play   an   important   part   in   driving   the   LTE   other   services   that   exploit   and   benefit   from   the   lower  
ecosystem   forward.   As   the   digital   lifestyle   continues   to   latency   and   increased   data   rates.   Subsequently,   LTE  
evolve,   devices   become   more   sophisticated   and   the   Advanced   will   be   the   real   differentiator,   bringing   along  
networks  become  capable  of  further  increased  data  rates,   tremendous  opportunities  for  end-­‐user  services.  Look  out  
the   services   get   more   advanced,   faster   and   data-­‐intense.   for  a  future  white  paper  on  this  topic…  
Unlike   the   2G   to   3G   transition,   the   3G   to   LTE   will   be    
subtler   for   the   end   users   and   mainly   –   at   least   initially   –    
visible   in   the   form   of   improved   versions   of   the   services   5. Future  considerations  and  conclusions  
consumed  over  3G  networks.  The  key  improvements  end-­‐
While   the   industry   has   endorsed   LTE   as   the   next   cellular  
users   will   experience   with   services   on   LTE   networks   will  
technology,   one   of   the   biggest   uncertainties   lies   in   the  
be   the   lower   latency   and   greater   data   speeds,   qualities  
spectrum   availability   and   the   potential   fragmentation   of  
that   are   especially   beneficial   to,   for   example,   video   based  
LTE   spectrum.   The   EU,   as   well   as   the   FCC   with   their  
services   and   gaming.   But   the   mere   existence   of   LTE   will  
flexible   refarming   policy,   have   given   their   support   to   the  
also   create   momentum   for   new   and   innovative   services  
technology   agnostic   use   of   spectrum.   Operators   need   this  
that  exploit  the  capabilities  of  LTE,  to  be  introduced  both  
in   order   to   proceed   with   commercial   LTE   deployments   –  
by  operators  and  OTT  (Over-­‐the-­‐top)  providers.    
and  even  more  to  exploit  LTE-­‐A  for  that  matter.    
 
As   forecasted   by   Cisco21,   already   before   LTE   becomes   While  2.6  GHz  has  been   the   most  popular  spectrum  band  
widely   available,   mobile   data   traffic   will   predominantly   for   the   initial   LTE   launches,   there   are   convincing  
come   from   mobile   video   oriented   services.   According   to   indications   that   1800   MHz   will   gain   strong   interest   as   it  
Cisco,   mobile   video   will   generate   71%   of   mobile   data   offers  significant  savings  in  network  costs  due  to  its  better  
traffic  by  2015,  followed  by  mobile  browsing  at  20%.  With   coverage  capabilities.  Nonetheless,  most  regions  will  need  
an   increased   LTE   penetration,   there   will   be   both   a   push   to   use   combinations   of   spectrum,   whether   due   to  
and   a   pull   effect   on   that   trend.   Informa   surveys18   also   economics,  spectrum  availability  or  legislation.  1800  MHz  
confirm   the   forecast   that   the   greatest   traffic   volumes   on   will   be   one   of   the   key   LTE   bands   in   the   future   as   almost  
LTE   networks   will   come   from   video   (incl.   streaming   and   half  of  the  operators  globally  are  already  in  possession  of  
downloads).   spectrum  in  this  band.  With  flexible  and  speedy  regulatory  
  adaptations  this  resource  can  be  very  instrumental  for  an  
efficient  LTE  deployment  and  growth.      

Operators   are   keen   to   deploy   LTE   as   the   current   networks  

are   struggling   to   cope   with   the   increasing   data   usage.  
                                                                                                                       
 Pyramid  Research,  Jan  2012,  ”LTE  Devices  and  Applications”  
20 Smooth   transitions   from   one   technology   generation   to  
21
 Cisco,  Feb  2012,  ”Cisco  VNI:  Global  Mobile  Data  Traffic  Forecast   another   have   always   been   challenging   for   the   industry.  
Update,  2011  –  2016”  
7  
 
  

This   time,   having   not   only   one   but   two   generations   of    

legacy  technologies,  whose  services  need  to  be  maintained    
for   quite   an   extended   period,   the   complexity   increases    
 
significantly.  Regulators  can  remove  a  potential  bottleneck  
 
by   promptly   and   justly   refarming   and   reallocating   the    
spectrum  resources.  In  the  end,  the  flexibility  of  combining    
spectrum  bands  and  technologies  to  satisfy  market  needs    
is  principal  to  reap  the  growth  opportunities.  By  speeding    
up   the   regulatory   processes   the   telecommunications    
market  as  a  whole  could  seize  this  opportunity  and  benefit    
 
from  what  LTE  technology  can  offer.  
 
 
   
 
   
 
   
 
   
 
   
 
   
 
   
 
   
 
   
 
 
 
 
 
   
 
About  Northstream  

Founded  in  1998,  Northstream  is  an  experienced  

management  consulting  firm  providing  strategic  business  
and  technology  advice  to  the  global  telecom  and  media  
industries.  We  help  our  clients  through  independent  and  
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based  on  a  well-­‐balanced  combination  of  innovation,  
industry  best  practices  and  in-­‐house  methodologies.  
Northstream  typically  works  with:  

• Business  strategy  development  and  planning  

• Strategic  sourcing  of  systems  and  services  
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• Investment  analysis  and  due  diligences  

Clients  across  the  world  include  mobile  operators,  

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investment  banks,  regulators  and  industry  fora.  Contact  us  
to  learn  more  about  how  we  can  work  together  to  ensure  
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Strategy  and  Sourcing  
www.northstream.se  
8