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(ln)
After understanding the exponential function, our next target is
the natural logarithm.
We can take any combination of rate and time (50% for 4 years)
and convert the rate to 100% for convenience (giving us 100%
for 2 years). By converting to a rate of 100%, we only have to
think about the time component:
For example:
$e^3$ is 20.08. After 3 units of time, we end up with 20.08
times what we started with.
$\ln(20.08)$ is about 3. If we want growth of 20.08, we’d
wait 3 units of time (again, assuming a 100% continuous
growth rate).
With me? The natural log gives us the time needed to hit our
desired growth.
$\ln(1) = 0$
Which says: Grow 5 times and “go back in time” until you have a
third of that amount, so you’re left with 5/3 growth. In general
we have
Suppose we want 30x growth: plug in $\ln(30)$ and get 3.4. This
means:
$e^x = \text{growth}$
$e^{3.4} = 30$
And intuitively this equation means “100% return for 3.4 years
is 30x growth”. We can consider the equation to be:
$\ln(30) = 3.4$
$\text{rate} * \text{time} = 3.4$
$.05 * \text{time} = 3.4$
$\text{time} = 3.4 / .05 = 68 \text{years}$
Cool, eh? The natural log can be used with any interest rate or
time as long as their product is the same. You can wiggle the
variables all you want.
Uh oh. We’ve been using natural log for continuous rates, but
now you’re asking for yearly interest? Won’t this mess up our
formula? Yes, it will, but at reasonable interest rates like 5%,
6% or even 15%, there isn’t much difference between yearly
compounded and fully continuous interest. So the rough
formula works, uh, roughly and we’ll pretend we’re getting fully
continuous interest.
So, if we only had 10% growth, it’d take .693 / .10 or 6.93 years
to double.
If you want to �nd the time to triple, you’d use ln(3) ~ 109.8 and
get
When you see $\ln(x)$, just think “the amount of time to grow
to x”. In the next article we’ll bring e and ln together, and the
sweet aroma of math will �ll the air.
Think intuitively.
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Name
Oliveira
⚑
5 months ago
Steph
⚑
8 days ago
I found this site while trying to figure out a problem that involved the log. It is
truly amazing how you make concepts so accessible that I was never really
completely able to wrap my head around, although I use a lot of math at
work. After reading this article I was pondering about the real reason why at
my job we so often plot things on a logarithmic scale. If I plot for example the
intensity of light that grows as you approach the light source, the plot is
exponential. If I plot it on a logarithmic scale, the plot becomes a line with
some slope. So what this tells me is that the rate of intensity growth is
constant. Do you agree that the rate of growth would be the slope of the line?
So my takeaway is, after understanding now the relationship between ln and
e, that the linear plot shows me the result intensity at any given moment,
while the log plot shows me visually if it is growing fast or slow, and it makes
it easier to predict to un-plotted areas. Thanks so much!
△ ▽ Reply
Hi Steph, great question. Yep, the slope corresponds to the rate the
change is happening.