Indonesia Macroeconomic Updates:

Facing the Headwinds ahead

Andry Asmoro
Senior Economist
PT. Bank Mandiri, Tbk.

Leadership Forum, Mandiri Tunas Finance, July 2018

Global Economic and Market Updates
What drives financial market in EMs?

GLOBAL
• US-China Trade War will affect to their growth → affect to
commodity prices → Indonesia GDP growth

• The Fed latest guidance on their benchmark → Front load episode?

• G3 monetary policy outlook → tightening or not? → flows to Ems

• Potential spill-over effect from certai EMs: Turkey and Venezuela

DOMESTIC
• Widening Deficit → Widening CAD

• Front load guidance on BI benchmark policies

• Flat Commodity prices → limited upside on Growth

• Politics and Private Consumption → should positively correlated

 Major Sources of Volatilities: US and China economies and policies

• Imposing higher tariffs to China products • China imposed a similar 25% tariff on 545
worth of USD34bn; US products, also worth of USD34bn;
• US Fed’s tightening policy until 2020 • China’s economic slowdown in the
upcoming 1-2 years
Major Sources of Volatilities: US and China economies and policies
Consensus: Higher global interest rate ahead

Rising FFR to respond Inflation will continue to ...affects to higher 10Y UST
recovery (%) pick up in US... (%)
(%)

4.00 Forecast 3.50 Forecast 4.00

Forecast
3.52
3.50 3.40 3.50
3.00 2.90
3.15
3.00 2.90 3.00 2.86
2.50

2.50 2.10 2.10 2.10 2.44 2.41

2.00 2.50
2.00 1.90
2.10
2.00
2.00 2.00
1.50
1.50
1.50 1.50

1.00
1.00 1.00
0.75

0.50
0.50 0.50

0.00 0.00 0.00

2016 2017 Jun-18 2018F 2019F 2020F 2016 2017 Jun-18 2018F 2019F 2020F 2016 2017 Jun-18 2018F 2019F

Source : Bloomberg, US Federal Reserve 16 July 2018

 Latest FOMC views: More agressive guidance ahead
• Expected for 4 time rate hike this year, next in September?
• Longer term rate will be at 2.9% (median level)

Median
Variable
2018 2019 2020 Longer Run

Change in real GDP 2.8 2.4 2.0 1.8

- March Projection 2.7 2.4 2.0 1.8
Unemployment Rate 3.6 3.5 3.5 4.5
- March Projection 3.8 3.6 3.6 4.5
PCE Inflation 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.0
- March Projection 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.0
Core PCE Inflation 2.0 2.1 2.1
- March Projection 1.9 2.1 2.1
Fed Funds Rate 2.4 3.1 3.4 2.9
- March Projection 2.1 2.9 3.4 2.9

Source : FOMC release in 17 June

 Impact 1 : Higher FX Volatility in EMs

Brazil Russia India

4.5 100 75
4 70
80
3.5 65
60 60
3
55
2.5 40 50
2 45
20
1.5 40
1 0 35
30
Nov-11

Nov-12

Nov-15

Nov-16

Nov-10

Nov-11
Nov-10

Nov-13

Nov-14

Nov-17

Nov-12

Nov-13

Nov-14

Nov-15

Nov-16

Nov-17
Jul-10

Jul-14

Jul-18

Jul-10

Jul-11

Jul-17

Jul-18
Jul-11

Jul-12

Jul-13

Jul-15

Jul-16

Jul-17

Jul-12

Jul-13

Jul-14

Jul-15

Jul-16
Mar-11

Mar-12

Mar-13

Mar-14

Mar-15

Mar-16

Mar-17

Mar-18

Mar-11

Mar-12

Mar-13

Mar-14

Mar-15

Mar-16

Mar-17

Mar-18

Nov-10

Nov-11

Nov-12

Nov-13

Nov-14

Nov-15

Nov-16

Nov-17
Jul-11

Jul-15

Jul-18
Jul-10

Jul-12

Jul-13

Jul-14

Jul-16

Jul-17
Mar-11

Mar-12

Mar-13

Mar-14

Mar-15

Mar-16

Mar-17

Mar-18
BRL/USD RUB/USD
INR/USD
Source : Bloomberg, as of July 11, 2018

Indonesia Daily Currency Volatility in EM

16000
15000
14000 As of July 11th, 2018
13000 Volatility
12000 FX
10 days 30 days 90 days 180 days 360 days
11000
10000 BRL/USD 3.81 14.85 22.37 16.22 14.83 14.73
9000 RUB/USD 62.12 11.07 22.98 15.31 12.82 11.99
8000
INR/USD 68.81 5.06 5.29 5.24 4.87 4.58
7000
6000 CNH/USD 6.68 7.20 5.20 4.91 4.89 4.36
Nov-16
Nov-10

Nov-11

Nov-12

Nov-13

Nov-14

Nov-15

Nov-17
Jul-12

Jul-14

Jul-16
Jul-10

Jul-11

Jul-13

Jul-15

Jul-17

Jul-18
Mar-11

Mar-12

Mar-13

Mar-14

Mar-15

Mar-16

Mar-17

Mar-18

IDR/USD 14385 4.46 8.20 5.53 4.49 3.74

Volatilitas mata uang IDR relatif lebih rendah dibandingkan negara-negara

IDR/USD
berkembang lainnya
Source : Bloomberg, OCE Calculation
 What level is the fundamental value of Rupiah?
140.0
REER, 2010 = 100
130.0
127.3
Appreciate
120.0
115.2
110.0

102.4
100.0

90.0
88.17

80.0
102.4
81.2
79.7
Depreciate
70.0

64.3
60.0
China Indonesia Brazil
Korea Russia Turkey
50.0
ASEAN-5 ex Indonesia Fragile-5 ex Indonesia

40.0
Nov-10
Feb-11

Feb-12

Nov-12

Nov-15

Feb-17
Nov-11

Feb-13

Feb-14
Nov-13

Nov-14
Feb-15

Feb-16

Nov-16

Nov-17
Feb-18
May-10

May-13

May-16

May-18
May-11
Aug-11

May-12

May-14
Aug-14

May-15

May-17
Aug-17
Aug-10

Aug-12

Aug-13

Aug-15

Aug-16
Source: BIS (May -18)
 Monetary Policy: More rate hike in the upcoming months?

Benchmark Spread
Countries Inflation (Benchmark rate – M2
Rate current Inflation)

US 2.00 2.90 - 90 4.2

EU - 1.90 na 4.6
Japan 0.10 0.70 - 60 3.2

China 4.35 1.90 2.45 8.0

India 6.25 5.00 1.25 20.3
Indonesia 5.25 3.12 2.13 6.0
Philippines 3.50 5.20 -1.70 13.8
Thailand 1.50 1.38 0.12 5.3
Malaysia 3.25 1.80 4.80 5.5

Source : Bloomberg, as July 16, 2018

Note : M2 data as of May 2018
EM interest rate is expected to rise, including Indonesia
• FFR movement → LIBOR O/N level → FX deposit rate
• Indo Bonds yield will be mostly affected by the UST yield
LIBOR O/N and Deposito Valas Simulations

Deposito Valas Deposito Valas Deposito Valas Deposito Valas

FFR LIBOR O/N
1 Bulan 3 Bulan 6 Bulan 12 Bulan
March 2018
1.75 1.70 1.29 1.62 1.72 1.38
Position
2.00 1.94 1.33 1.70 1.93 1.48
Simulation 2.25 2.19 1.42 1.79 2.03 1.54
2.50 2.45 1.52 1.88 2.14 1.60
Change from March 2018 position:

Deposito Valas Deposito Valas Deposito Valas Deposito Valas

FFR LIBOR O/N
1 Bulan 3 Bulan 6 Bulan 12 Bulan
25 bps 24 bps 4 bps 8 bps 21 bps 10 bps
50 bps 49 bps 13 bps 17 bps 31 bps 16 bps
75 bps 75 bps 23 bps 26 bps 42 bps 22 bps

GIDN10YR Simulations
BI Rate FFR UST 10-year CDS 5-year CPI YoY USDIDR GIDN10YR
4.75 2.00 3.00 135.00 3.61 14000.00 7.53
5.00 2.25 3.00 150.00 3.61 14000.00 7.60
5.00 2.50 3.25 150.00 3.61 14100.00 7.72
5.25 2.50 3.50 200.00 3.61 14100.00 8.55
5.25 2.50 4.00 200.00 3.61 14500.00 9.26
5.50 2.50 4.00 280.00 3.61 14500.00 10.03
Trump’s trade policy: What’s the impact to
Indonesia?
1 Trump Economic Policies: Deliver the promises
Impact to Indonesia
Export to US will be tougher if
US increase the barriers.
Good thing for Indonesia, TPP
could be rejected and
Indonesia will have the same
seat to other exporting
countries
Bigger budget deficit
means more debt →
increase debt ceiling →
create temporary negative
sentiment on the financial
market
Protectionism increase →
challenge for Indonesia’s
exported products
Source : Various Media, OCE
Econ Policies
Trade
More protectionism
and re-arrange the
Free Trade Agreement
Taxes
“a massive tax
reduction” for working
and middle-income
Americans
Public Finances
More tax cuts without
spending adjustment
means widening deficit
Jobs & Growth
Strategy to increase
employment, lower
taxes, trade barriers and
tighter immigration rules
→ stronger economic
growth.
 US Trade Balance Position in 2017
US trade deficit mostly resulted from trading with China

(USD mn) US Trade Deficit in 2016

-36.16 -33.66 -29.90 -29.57 -26.09 -25.50

-71.88 -67.10 -67.06

-365.91 US Trade Balance with

Indonesia is
–USD 14.11 mn
in 2016 (trade deficit)

-797.75
World China Japan Germany Mexico Ireland Viet Nam Italy Korea, India Malaysia
Republic of

(USD mn) US Trade Deficit in 2017

-40.26 -38.34 -33.08 -25.31 -24.90 -24.89

-74.00 -72.16 -66.68

-395.82 US Trade Balance with

Indonesia is
–USD 14.28 mn
in 2017 (trade deficit)

-862.75
World China Mexico Japan Germany Viet Nam Ireland Italy Malaysia India Korea,
Republic of

Source : Trade Map, CEIC

 US Economy and Indonesia Export
US economic recovery drives for higher Indonesia’s export to US

5000 4

4
4500
3

4000 3

2
3500 2

1
3000
1

2500 0

Indonesia Export to USA (USD mn) (LHS) USA GDP Growth (%) (RHS)

US is one of the most important trading partners and export destinations for Indonesia:
2015 2016 10M16 10M17
Value (USD Value (USD Value (USD Value (USD
% of Export % of Export % of Export % of Export
HS Definition Bio) Bio) Bio) Bio)
Palm oil and its fractions, whether or not refined (excluding chemically
11 7.31 11.06 7.65 8.4 7.16 11.48 8.28
modified and crude)
Coal, whether or not pulverised, non-agglomerated (excluding
7.5 4.99 6.53 4.52 5.1 4.33 8.52 6.15
anthracite and bituminous coal)
Bituminous coal, whether or not pulverised, non-agglomerated 7.22 4.8 6.37 4.41 5.02 4.26 6.01 4.33

Petroleum oils and oils obtained from bituminous minerals, crude 6.48 4.31 5.2 3.6 4.35 3.69 4.28 3.09
Natural gas, liquefied 7.36 4.89 5.15 3.56 4.22 3.58 5.11 3.68
Copper ores and concentrates 3.28 2.18 3.48 2.41 2.72 2.31 2.47 1.78
Crude palm oil 4.39 2.92 3.31 2.29 2.44 2.07 3.86 2.79
Technically specified natural rubber "TSNR" 3.56 2.37 3.24 2.24 2.59 2.2 4.3 3.1
Natural gas in gaseous state 2.97 1.98 1.85 1.28 1.47 1.25 2.09 1.51
Lignite, whether or not pulverised, non-agglomerated (excluding jet) 1.88 1.74 2.12 1.28 1.23 1.04 2.1 1.52
Total Top 10 Commodities 55.63 37 48.3 33.43 37.58 31.89 50.22 36.23
Total Commodities on Top 100 64.37 42.81 56.9 39.38 80.3 68.14 88.4 63.77
All products 150.37 100 144.49 100 117.85 100 138.62 100

Source : Trade Map, CEIC

 Indonesia is more sensitive to China’s economy than US
GDP Elasticity in Selected Countries
Country
Elasticity

1.73 1.40 1.50 1.21

1.08 1.08 0.83 0.41

0.83 0.51 0.73 0.48

0.61 0.40 0.54 0.34

0.07 0.08 0.05 0.09

note: every 1% decrease in China’s GDP, Indonesia’s GDP will decrease 0.11%;
every 1% decrease in US’s GDP, Indonesia’s GDP will decrease 0.05%

Source: Bloomberg, Office of Chief Economist

China’s economy and commodity outlook
 China economy will decelerate further

IMF expects world economic growth to World Bank expects global growth to improve
improve to 3.9% in 2018 (vs 3.7% in 2017) to 3.1% in 2018 (vs 3.0% in 2017F)
IMF World Bank

Area 2017 2018F 2019F 2017 2018F 2019F

World 3.8 3.9 3.9 3.0 3.1 3.0

US 2.3 2.9 2.7 2.3 2.5 2.2

Euro Area 2.3 2.4 2.0 2.4 2.1 1.7

Indonesia 5.1 5.3 5.5 5.1 5.3 5.3

Japan 1.7 1.2 0.9 1.7 1.3 0.8

China 6.9 6.6 6.4 6.8 6.4 6.3

India 6.7 7.4 7.8 6.7 7.3 7.5

Russia 1.5 1.7 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.8

Brazil 1.0 2.3 2.5 1.0 2.0 2.3

ASEAN-5 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.1

Source : IMF, World Economic Outlook April 2018,

World Bank, Global Economic Prospects January 2018
6
 Indonesia Commodity Export is Still Dominating
The top commodities are oil, coal, crude palm oil, rubber and cooper

2015 2016 10M16 10M17

Value (USD Value (USD Value (USD Value (USD
% of Export % of Export % of Export % of Export
HS Definition Bio) Bio) Bio) Bio)
Palm oil and its fractions, whether or not refined (excluding chemically
11 7.31 11.06 7.65 8.4 7.16 11.48 8.28
modified and crude)
Coal, whether or not pulverised, non-agglomerated (excluding
7.5 4.99 6.53 4.52 5.1 4.33 8.52 6.15
anthracite and bituminous coal)
Bituminous coal, whether or not pulverised, non-agglomerated 7.22 4.8 6.37 4.41 5.02 4.26 6.01 4.33

Petroleum oils and oils obtained from bituminous minerals, crude 6.48 4.31 5.2 3.6 4.35 3.69 4.28 3.09
Natural gas, liquefied 7.36 4.89 5.15 3.56 4.22 3.58 5.11 3.68
Copper ores and concentrates 3.28 2.18 3.48 2.41 2.72 2.31 2.47 1.78
Crude palm oil 4.39 2.92 3.31 2.29 2.44 2.07 3.86 2.79
Technically specified natural rubber "TSNR" 3.56 2.37 3.24 2.24 2.59 2.2 4.3 3.1
Natural gas in gaseous state 2.97 1.98 1.85 1.28 1.47 1.25 2.09 1.51
Lignite, whether or not pulverised, non-agglomerated (excluding jet) 1.88 1.74 2.12 1.28 1.23 1.04 2.1 1.52
Total Top 10 Commodities 55.63 37 48.3 33.43 37.58 31.89 50.22 36.23
Total Commodities on Top 100 64.37 42.81 56.9 39.38 80.3 68.14 88.4 63.77
All products 150.37 100 144.49 100 117.85 100 138.62 100

Source: BPS

19 23 July 2018
 Indonesia Economic Growth Depends on Commodity Prices
An increase of 1 point in commodity prices index will push economic growth by 0.004%

Commodity Price and Economic Growth Commodity Price and Economic Growth Relationship
9
9 600
8
8

(Commodity Index of Top Five Exports)

500
7
(Economic Growth in % (t+2))

(Economic Growth in % (t+2))

6 400 6

5 5
300
4 4

3 200 y = 0.0041x + 4.1818

3
R² = 0.202
2
100 2
1
1
0 0
1Q08
3Q08
1Q09
3Q09
1Q10

1Q16
3Q16
1Q17
3Q17
1Q07
3Q07

3Q10
1Q11
3Q11
1Q12
3Q12
1Q13
3Q13
1Q14
3Q14
1Q15
3Q15

0
150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600
(Commodity Price Index of Top Five Exports)
GDP YoY Growth (t+2)

Commodity Index of Top Five Exports

20 23 July 2018
 Loan Growth is Significantly Influenced by Commodity Prices
An increase of 1 point in commodity prices index will promote loan growth by 0.059%

Commodity Price and Loan Growth Relationship between Commodity Price and Loan
Growth
40 600
40
35
500 35

(Commodity Price of Top Five Exports)

30
30
400
(Loan Growth (t+3))

(Loan Growth (t+3))

25
25

20 300 20

15 15
200
10
10
y = 0.0591x - 2.6481
100 R² = 0.4873
5
5

0
0 0 100 200 300 400 500 600
4Q07

2Q09

2Q10

4Q12

4Q13

2Q16

2Q17
2Q07

2Q08
4Q08

4Q09

4Q10
2Q11
4Q11
2Q12

2Q13

2Q14
4Q14
2Q15
4Q15

4Q16

(Commodity Price Index of Top Five Exports)

Loan Growth (t+3) Commodity Index of Top Five Exports

21 23 July 2018
 Non Performing Loan (NPL) is Significantly Affected by Commodity Prices
An increase of 1 point in commodity prices index will decrease NPL by 0,002%

Commodity Price and NPL Relationship between Commodity Price and

Non Performing Loan (NPL)
4.5 600
4.50
4.0

(Commodity Price of Top Five Exports)

500
3.5 4.00

3.0 400
()NPL in % (t+6))

3.50

(NPl in % (t+6))
2.5
300
3.00 y = -0.002x + 3.545
2.0
R² = 0.165

1.5 200
2.50
1.0
100
0.5 2.00

0.0 0
1Q07

3Q08

3Q09

1Q11

1Q12

3Q14

3Q15

1Q17
3Q07
1Q08

1Q09

1Q10
3Q10

3Q11

3Q12
1Q13
3Q13
1Q14

1Q15

1Q16
3Q16

1.50
200 300 400 500 600
(Commodity Price of Top Five Exports)
NPL (t+6)
Commodity Index of Top Five Exports

22 23 July 2018
 120

100
140

20
80

40
60

0
Jan-09
Mar-09
May-09
Jul-09
Sep-09

64.1
June 2018...

Nov-09
Jan-10
Mar-10
May-10

Sources : Bloomberg, EstimasiOCE

Jul-10

80.7
Sep-10
Nov-10
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-11
Sep-11
112.3

Nov-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-12
Sep-12
111.5

Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
108.4

Nov-13

Brent Crude Oil Price (USD/bbl)

Jan-14
Mar-14
May-14
Oil Price (Brent) USD/bbl

Jul-14
Sep-14
Nov-14
97.5

Jan-15
Mar-15
May-15
Jul-15
Yearly Average

Sep-15
Nov-15
54.15

Jan-16
Mar-16
May-16
Jul-16
46.0

Sep-16
Nov-16
Jan-17
Mar-17
May-17
55.7

Jul-17
Sep-17
Nov-17
Jan-18
72.9
Global Oil prices is at trending up, YTD Brent reached USD 72.9 per barrel in

Mar-18
23

May-18
 100.0
120.0
140.0

80.0

20.0
40.0
60.0

0.0
Jan-09
Mar-09
May-09
Jul-09

72.5
Sep-09
Nov-09
Jan-10
Mar-10
May-10

Sources : Bloomberg, EstimasiOCE

Jul-10
Sep-10
100.5
Nov-10
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-11
Sep-11
121.5

Nov-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-12
Sep-12
96.0

Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
85.7

Sep-13
Nov-13

Newcastle Coal Price (USD/Ton)

Jan-14
Mar-14
May-14
Jul-14
Sep-14
Coal Price Newcastle (USD/Ton)

Nov-14
70.5

Jan-15
Mar-15
May-15
58.6

Jul-15
Yearly Average

Sep-15
Nov-15
Jan-16
Mar-16
May-16
Jul-16
Sep-16
66.5

Nov-16
Jan-17
...as well as the coal prices that reached USD 104.8 per ton ytd.

Mar-17
May-17
Jul-17
Sep-17
89.0

Nov-17
Jan-18
Mar-18
24

May-18
104.8
 1000.0
1200.0
1400.0

200.0
400.0
600.0
800.0

0.0
Jan-09
Mar-09
May-09

650
Jul-09
Sep-09
Nov-09
Jan-10
Mar-10

875
May-10

Sources : Bloomberg, EstimasiOCE

Jul-10
Sep-10
Nov-10
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
1064.8

Jan-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-12
Sep-12
Nov-12
933.9

Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
764.2

Sep-13

Newcastle Coal Price (USD/Ton)

Nov-13
Jan-14
Mar-14
May-14
733.4

Jul-14
Sep-14
Nov-14
CPO Price (FOB Malaysia) (USD/Ton)

Jan-15
Mar-15
May-15
558.3

Jul-15
Yearly Average

Sep-15
Nov-15
Jan-16
Mar-16
May-16
Jul-16
646.7

Sep-16
Nov-16
Jan-17
On the other hand, CPO prices dropped to USD 613.8 per ton...

Mar-17
May-17
637.8

Jul-17
Sep-17
Nov-17
Jan-18
Mar-18
25
613.8

May-18
 3.0

0.0
1.0
2.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
Jan-09
Apr-09

1.9
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10

3.5
Jul-10

Sources : Bloomberg, EstimasiOCE

Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
4.4

Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
3.1

Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
2.5

Oct-13

Newcastle Coal Price (USD/Ton)

Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
1.7

Jan-15
Rubber Price RSS Singapore (USD/Ton)

Apr-15
Jul-15
Yearly Average

Oct-15
Jan-16
Apr-16
1.4
...as well as the rubber prices that reached USD 1.4 per kg

Jul-16
Oct-16
Jan-17
Apr-17
1.6

Jul-17
Oct-17
Jan-18
Apr-18
26
1.3
 Forward price of important commodities for Indonesia up to December 2019

(a) Brent Crude Oil Price (USD/Bbl) (b) Coal Price Newcastle (USD/Ton)
80.0 150
70.27
70.0 62.47
100 96.4
60.0
78.8
50.0 50
40.0
30.0 0

Oct-17

Oct-18

Oct-19
Jul-18
Jul-17

Jul-19
Apr-19
Apr-17

Apr-18
Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19
Jan-17

Jan-18

Sep-18
Jan-19
Sep-17

Sep-19
May-18
May-17

May-19
Historical Price 30-Dec-16 Historical Price 30-Dec-16
31-Mar-17 30-Jun-17 31-Mar-17 30-Jun-17
30-Sep-17 December 30,2017
30-Sep-17 30-Dec-17
31-Mar-18
31-Mar-18

(c) CPO Price Malaysia (RM/Ton) (d) Rubber Price TSR 20 (e) LME Nickel Price (USD/Ton)
Singapore (USD/kg)
4000
25000
2.5
20000
2
2380 2434
1.5 1.498 15000 13086 13404.5
2000
1.337
1 10000
0.5
5000
0
0 0

Nov-19
Feb-18
Sep-18
May-16
Oct-15
Aug-14

Jul-17
Dec-16

Apr-19
Mar-15
Jan-14
Jul-14

Jul-16
Jul-15

Jul-17

Jul-18

Jul-19
Jan-14

Jan-17

Jan-19
Jan-15

Jan-16

Jan-18

Nov-19
May-16

Feb-18
Sep-18
Aug-14

Oct-15

Jul-17

Apr-19
Mar-15

Dec-16
Jan-14
Historical Price 30-Dec-16 Historical Price
30-Dec-16
31-Mar-17 30-Jun-17 Historical Price 31-Mar-18 31-Mar-17
30-Sep-17 December 30,2017 30-Jun-17
Sep-17
31-Mar-18 31-Dec-17
 Forecasts of average Commodity prices in 2018

• Crude Oil (Brent): USD 65-70 per barrel

• Crude palm oil/ CPO (FOB Malaysia) = USD$ 650 per ton

• Coal (Newcastle) = US$ 90 per ton

• Rubber (RSS Singapore) = US$ 1,6-1,8 per kg

28
Domestic economy updates
 Macroeconomic forecast : Economic growth will gradually improve in the coming years
BI will tighten policy rate more aggressively to stabilize Rupiah volatility

GDP growth forecast Inflation forecast

9.0 8.4
8.0
5.7 8.0
5.8
5.6
5.6 5.5 7.0
5.4 5.3 6.0
5.2 5.1 5.0
5.0 5.0
5.0 4.9 3.9 3.7
4.0 3.4 3.6 3.6
4.8 3.0
3.0
4.6
2.0
4.4
4.2 1.0
4.0 0.0

2018F

2019F

2020F
2013

2014

2015

2016

2017
2018F

2019F

2020F
2017
2013

2014

2015

2016

Previous forecast 3.6 3.6 4.0

GDP growth will gradually increased in the coming years Inflation will be stable and remain at BI’s
(no change from previous forecast) target of 3.5±1% in 2018 and 2019, and 3±1%
in 2020
1Q18 GDP growth was below expectation, we forecast for 5.2% - 5.3% in 2018
Biggest driver for low growth in 1Q18 was higher imports

Growth by components (% yoy) GDP composition 2017

5.21 5.19
5.12
5.06
2%
5.01
Household

32% Non profit inst

4.74
56% Government exp
Investment
9%
Net exports
2Q14

4Q14

2Q15

3Q17

1Q18
1Q14

3Q14

1Q15

3Q15

4Q15

1Q16

2Q16

3Q16

4Q16

1Q17

2Q17

4Q17
1.2%

Growth by components (% yoy)

Household Government exp Investments Exports Imports

5.31 9.09 12.7
5.15 7.95
5
6.17 8.06
2.73 6.15
5.01 2.14 2.12
5.01 1.07
4.96 4.95 4.95 1.16
4.45 4.47
-2.45

-0.14 -2.12 -1.57 -6.25

2014 2015 2016 2017 1Q18 2014 2015 2016 2017 1Q18 2014 2015 2016 2017 1Q18 2014 2015 2016 2017 1Q18 2014 2015 2016 2017 1Q18
What to watch: Positive and negative drivers on domestic economy

• Some events should lift up growth: 171 local elections

(June), Asian Games (Aug), IMF-WB Annual meeting (Oct)
Positive
• Better Government spending realization

• Stable administrative prices: BBM, electricity, and LPG

• Rising global and domestic interest rate

Negative • Weakening currency drives to higher imported inflation

• Widening CAD and continuing Capital flows

Our Macro Forecasts

2018F
Indicators 2015 2016 2017 2019F
Old Revision

Real GDP (%) 4.8 5.0 5.1 5.3 5.3 5.5

CPI inflation (%, eop) 3.4 3.0 3.61 3.6 3.6 3.9

CAD to GDP (%) -2.0 -1.8 -1.7 -2.2 -2.2 -2.2

USD/IDR (eop) 13,795 13,436 13,568 13,800 14,065 14,045

7-day repo rate - 4.75 4.25 4.75 5.5 6.0

 Some regions should have better performance this and next year

Kontribusi dan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Menurut Pulau (%)

Jawa Sulawesi
5.78 5.75 8.19
6,2%
5.59 5.61 7.42
5.47 6.99 6.83 7.17
58,5%

1Q18
1Q18
2015

2015

2016

2017
2016

2017

2018P

2018P
Bali-Nusa Tenggara
Sumatera
3,2% 10.45
4.29 4.30 4.37 4.61
3.53 5.89 5.41
3.73 6.6
21,5%

1Q18
2015

2016

2017

2018P

1Q18
2015

2016

2017

2018P
Kalimantan
Maluku-Papua
4.33 2,5% 18.42
3.55
3.25
8,2% 1.37 2.01 7.45 7.66
6.35 4.89
1Q18
2016
2015

2017

2018P

1Q18
2017

2018P
2015

2016
2018P: OCE Forecast
Sumber:BPS Proportion of Economic Size Economic Growth

34 Indonesia Regional Economic Update-Semester I-2018

 In 1Q18, 60% of provinces have lower growth than 1Q17

Pertumbuhan PDRB Menurut Provinsi 1Q18 (% yoy)

Aceh
3.34

Sumut Kaltara
4.73 5.56
Sulut
Riau Kepri Gorontalo Malut
6.68
4.47 Kaltim 6.19
2.91 Kalbar 7.98
5.11 1.77
Sumbar Pabar
4.71 Jambi Kalteng Sulteng
Babel Sulbar 5.69
4.66 4.62 6.62
2.46 5.65
Sumsel Sultra
Bengkulu 5.89 Kalsel Maluku
5.76
5.08 5.01 5.25 Papua
Lampung 28.93
5.16 DKI Sulsel
6.02 Jateng 7.41
Banten 5.41
Jabar Jatim
5.95 DIY
6.02 5.5 Bali NTB
5.36 5.68 -0.33 NTT
5.19

>7
5.5 - 7
4 - 5.49
<4

Source: BPS
Notes: Arrow represents declining growth compare to 1Q2017, no arrow means increase growth
Sector perfomances: Some sectors have been improved
 Consumption is still flat as depicted by the total consumption porsion to
income

%
80.0

70.0 66.4 67.1

64.4
60.0 63.0

50.0

40.0
Konsumsi Cicilan pinjaman Tabungan
30.0
19.4
20.0

10.0 13.5
0.0
May-16

May-17

May-18
Nov-16

Nov-17
Mar-16

Aug-16

Mar-17

Mar-18
Aug-17
Oct-16

Oct-17
Jun-16

Jun-17

Jun-18
Sep-16

Dec-16

Feb-17
Jan-16
Feb-16

Jan-17

Sep-17

Dec-17
Jan-18
Feb-18
Apr-17

Apr-18
Apr-16

Jul-16

Jul-17
Source: Bank Indonesia

37
 Ramayana sales was growing 3.9% in 1H18. In Ramadhan (Mei-June) 2008,
sales grew 5.2% yoy

Ramayana Gross Sales RALS Gross Sales Growth, (%, MoM)

(Rp Miliar)
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
250%
200%
2012 2013 2014 2015
150%
2016 2017 2018 100%
50%
2,500 0%
-50%
-100%

October

November
May
January

September
March

December
August
April

June

July
February
2,000

1,500
RALS Gross Sales Growth, (%, YoY)

1,000
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
100.0%
500 75.0%
50.0%
25.0%
0.0%
0 -25.0%
-50.0%
November
October
May
January

March

September
August
July
June
April

December
February

-75.0%

November
October
January

May
March

August

September
June

July
April

December
February
Sumber: Emiten
 ACES sales was growing 20.7% in 1H18. In Ramadhan (Mei-June) 2008, sales
grew 21.4% yoy
ACES Gross Sales ACES Gross Sales Growth, (%, MoM)
(Rp Miliar)
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
40.0%
700 30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
600 -10.0%
-20.0%
-30.0%

April

May

September
March
February

August
January

October
July

November

December
June
500

400

300 ACES Gross Sales Growth, (%, YoY)

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
200 35.0%
30.0%
25.0%
20.0%
100 15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
0 -5.0%
-10.0%
November
January

October
May
March

August

September
June

July
April

December
February

October

November
January

May
March

June

August

September
July
April

December
February
Sumber: Emiten
 Java still dominates the retail sales (68,5%)

Kontribusi dan Pertumbuhan Penjualan FMCG Menurut Wilayah, 1Q18

Sumber : AC Nielsen

40
Auto Sector Updates
Katalis positif industri Otomotif
• Rasio kepemilikan mobil masih rendah

• Utilisasi yang masih dapat dioptimalkan untuk pasar ekspor

• Suku bunga kredit konsumsi yang berangsur-angsur menurun

Katalis negatif industri Otomotif

• Rasio kepemilikan motor sudah tinggi

• Perubahan tren harga komoditas (batubara, CPO)

• Perubahan selera konsumen dalam jangka panjang

• Perubahan kebijakan terkait green car

Rekomendasi industri Otomotif

• Berhati-hati jika menyalurkan kredit kepada produsen sparepart LCGC apabila aturan LCEV telah dikeluarkan.
Dikhawatirkan LCGC tidak akan mendapat keringanan pajak lagi sehingga harga jualnya akan melambung. Jika hal ini
terjadi, maka LCGC akan sulit bersaing langsung dengan LMPV dari sisi kualitas dan harga.

• Untuk kredit kepada dealer mobil kami sarankan agar difokuskan kepada top brand, seperti Toyota, Honda, Daihatsu.
 Pertumbuhan industri otomotif mencapai 6,33% pada 1Q18
Akan tetapi share industri otomotif sedikit menurun pada 1Q18

Pertumbuhan PDB nasional, industri manufaktur dan industri alat Share industri otomotif per provinsi (2016)
angkutan (%)

Share ind. Oto 1Q17 thd manufaktur: 9.13%

14.90

Share ind. Oto 1Q18 thd manufaktur: 9.09%

DKI
Jabar

42% Banten
51%
6.40

6.33
6.30
6.20

6.00

Kepri
5.60
5.60

5.07

5.06
5.01
5.00

5.00
4.90
4.60

4.50

4.50
4.40
4.30

4.30

4.30

4.30

Jatim

4.28
4.00

3.70

3.06
Jateng
2.40

Lainnya
2%
1% 2%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 1Q17 1Q18 2%
1%
PDB Indonesia PDB Manufaktur
PDB Industri alat angkutan

Source: BPS.
 Penjualan mobil tumbuh 6.0% (yoy) pada 5M18, sama dengan tingkat
pertumbuhan 5M17
Mendekati bulan Ramadhan, penjualan mobil akan cenderung meningkat kemudian terkoreksi pada
periode Lebaran
Tren penjualan mobil Penjualan mobil bulanan
120
1,400 30% Periode Lebaran
Thousand units

Thousands
25% 110
1,200
20%
100
1,000 15%

10% 90
800
5%
80
600
0%
70
400 -5%

-10% 60
200
-15%
50
0 -20%

Jul
Jun
Apr

Mei

Nop
Jan

Des
Okt
Feb

Mar

Sep
Agust
5M17

5M18
2011

2014

2015
2012

2013

2016

2017

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Sales (000 unit) Growth

Source: Gaikindo.
 Pangsa pasar Astra menurun dari 56.7% pada 4M17 menjadi hanya 48.9% di 4M18
Toyota mengalami penurun pangsa pasar terbesar, sementara Mitsubishi meningkat pesat berkat
produk Xpandernya

Pangsa penjualan mobil 2017 Top 15 mobil dengan penjualan terbesar 2017

Astra Group Avanza 116,311

40%
Calya 73,236
35%
Inova 61,775
30% Gran Max 56,232

25% Brio 53,958

Sigra 44,993
20%
HR-V 39,081
15%
Xenia 38,535
10%
Mobilio 35,430
Share top 15
5% Ertiga 35,338
model = 64%
0% Carry 32,795
Nissan
Mitsubishi
Daihatsu

Honda
Suzuki

Others
Isuzu

Toyota

Agya 29,004
Ayla 28,051
Fortuner 24,531
2017 4M17 4M18
L300 23,170

Source: Gaikindo.
 Penjualan passenger car hanya tumbuh 2.8% pada 5M18, lebih rendah dari
5.2% pada 5M17
Di sisi lain, penjualan commercial car pada 5M18 justru meningkat 18.1%, lebih tinggi dari 9.2% pada
5M17
Penjualan mobil per kategori Pertumbuhan penjualan mobil penumpang per bulan
1000 40% 90

Thousands
Thousand unit

80
900 70
30%
800 60
20% 50
700
40 Periode Lebaran
10%
600 30
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
500 0%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
400
-10%
300 Pertumbuhan penjualan mobil komersial per bulan
-20% 40
200

Thousands
-30% 30
100

0 -40% 20
5M18
5M17
2011

2012

2014

2017
2013

2015

2016

10
Passenger car sales Commercial car sales
-
Passenger car growth Commercial car growth Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Source: Gaikindo.
 Penjualan commerial mengalami pertumbuhan positif sejak Feb 2017
Kategori mobil komersial yang mengalami pertumbuhan tertinggi adalah truck berkapasitas lebih
dari 24 ton meskipun pertumbuhannya di 4M18 lebih rendah dari 4M17

Penjualan mobil komersial berdasarkan kapasitas

Bellow 5 tonnes 5 -10 tonnes 10 – 24 tonnes 10 – 24 tonnes
250 20 120 40 12 15 25 120

30 10 100
10 100 10
200 20 80
20 5
0 80 8 60
10 0
150 15
40
-10 60 0 6 -5
20
100 10
-10 -10
-20 40 4 0
-20 -15
50 5 -20
-30 20 2
-30 -20 -40

- -40 - -40 - -25 - -60

4M17

4M18

4M18
4M18

4M17

4M17

4M17
4M18
2015
2016

2015

2014

2017

2015
2014

2017

2014

2016
2017

2015
2016

2014

2016
2017
Sales (000 unit) Growth (%) Sales (000 unit) Growth (%) Sales (000 unit) Growth (%) Sales (000 unit) Growth (%)

Source: Gaikindo.
Penjualan mobil komersial erat kaitannya dengan harga batubara global
Akan tetapi lag kedua variable tersebut adalah 7 bulan, yang berarti penurunan harga batubara baru
akan berdampak pada penurunan penjualan mobil komersial sekitar 7 bulan kemudian

Commercial car sales compared with commodity price index (Jan 10 = 100)

Lag Normal 1 month 2 months 3 months 4 months 5 months 6 months 7 months 8 months 9 months
R s quare 0.392 0.393 0.379 0.392 0.426 0.462 0.525 0.534 0.511 0.453
180 200

160

140 7 months lags 150

120
Jan 2010 = 100

100

Percentage
100

80
50
60

40 0
20

0 -50
Mar-13

Mar-16
Mar-10

Mar-11

Mar-12

Mar-14

Mar-15

Mar-17
May-11

May-16
May-10

May-12

May-13

May-14

May-15

May-17
Jan-10

Jan-13
Jan-11

Jan-12

Jan-14

Jan-15

Jan-16

Jan-17
Jul-10

Jul-11

Jul-12

Jul-13

Jul-14

Jul-15

Jul-16
Nov-14
Nov-10

Nov-11

Nov-12

Nov-13

Nov-15

Nov-16
Sep-10

Sep-11

Sep-12

Sep-13

Sep-14

Sep-15

Sep-16
Crude oil (LHS) Comm car growth (RHS) CPO (LHS) Coal (LHS)
 Penjualan LCGC mulai kembali ke fase normal
Meskipun penjualan LCGC pada 2017 turun -0.3% (yoy), pangsa pasar LCGC masih terjaga sebesar 28%

Penjualan LCGC per tahun Pertumbuhan penjualan LCGC per bulan

35
250 250% 30
25
20
200% 15
200
10
150% 5
-
150

Jul
Jun
Apr

Mei
Jan

Nop

Des
Okt
Feb

Sep
Mar

Agust
100%
100 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
50%
Share LCGC terhadap mobil penumpang
50
0% 30%
25%
20%
0 -50%
15%
2013*

5M18
5M17
2014
2015
2016
2017

10%
5%
Sales (000 unit) Growth
0%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 5M17 5M18
Source: Gaikindo.
 Penjualan sepeda motor selama 5M18 tumbuh 13.2% (yoy) yang kemungkinan
masih bersifat seasonal menghadapi musim Lebaran
Siklus musiman penjualan sepeda motor selalu turun pada periode Lebaran

Tren penjualan sepeda motor per tahun (juta unit) Pertumbuhan penjualan sepeda motor per bulan
9 30%
9
Millions

x 100000
8 25%
8 Periode Lebaran
20%
7
7
15%
6
10% 6
5
5% 5
4
0% 4
3
-5%
3
2
-10%
2
1 -15%

0 -20% 1
5M17

5M18
2011

2014

2015
2010

2012

2013

2016

2017

Jul
Jun
Apr
Mei
Jan

Nop
Des
Okt
Mar
Feb

Sep
Agust
Sales (mn unit) Growth

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Sumber: ASII / AISI

 Pasar sepeda motor Indonesia juga merupakan yang terbesar di ASEAN
Total produksi sepeda motor Thailand, Malaysia, dan Philippines tumbuh 15% (yoy) pada 9M17

Penjualan sepeda motor ASEAN

(000 unit) Market share sepeda motor ASEAN
(000 unit)
(000 units)

9,000 Sales Share

Country YoY
3M17 3M18 3M17 3M18
8,000 Thailand 462 465 1% 20% 23%
Indonesia 1,402 1,457 4% 62% 72%
7,000 Malaysia 108 111 3% 5% 5%
Philippines 294 0 -100% 13% 0%
6,000 Singapore 2 2 -31% 0% 0%
Total 2,268 2,035 -10% 100% 100%
5,000 *Thailand sales is 8M17

4,000 Produksi sepeda motor ASEAN

(000 unit)
3,000
Production Share
Country YoY
2,000 3M17 3M18 3M17 3M18
Thailand 515 543 5.4% 56% 83%
1,000 Indonesia* Data unavailable
Malaysia 108 110 1.6% 12% 17%
- Philippines 295 0 -100.0% 32% 0%
3M18
3M17
2012

2013

2016

2017
2010

2011

2014

2015

Total 918 653 -28.9% 100% 100%

*Indonesia production data stoped in August 2016

Thailand Indonesia Malaysia Philippines

Sumber: AFF
 Rasio kepemilikan kendaraan di Indonesia tergolong tinggi karena tingginya
kepemilikan sepeda motor
Rasio kepemilikan sepeda motor tahun 2016 stabil, menunjukkan potensi kejenuhan pasar
Jumlah kendaraan terdaftar, 2013 (per 1.000 orang) Rasio kepemilikan kendaraan (per rumah tangga)
808 (dalam %)

73.8
481 71.0 71.7
454 68.6
415 66.1
61.0
184 180
79

China Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam

GNI/capita
7.930 3.440 10.570 3.550 52.090 5.720 1.990
(2015)

Perkembangan pembangunan jalan

14.2%

11.3%
10.2% 10.3%
8.5%
8.5 9.3 10.0
6.7% 6.9 7.7 7.5
3.0%
2.4% 2.1% 1.7%
0.6% 0.9%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Road development Vehicle growth Motorcycle Car

Sumber: WHO, World Bank, BPS

2014 & 2015 vehicle growth are calculated using Gaikindo and AISI data
 Kondisi kredit kepemilikan kendaraan bermotor (KKB) 3M18
Total KKB tumbuh 9.6% (yoy) pada 3M18 dengan NPL untuk semua segmen cenderung rendah

Car ownership loan Motorcycle ownrshp loan Truck ownership loan Other vhcle ownrshp loan
120 25%

103.2
98.9
20.5%
100
93.1
91.1

19.3%
90.0

20%
88.0

17.5% 17.8%
79.8

17.0%
16.3%
80 15.9%
15.4%
71.1

14.7%
68.1

15%
IDR trillion

12.7%
12.6%
60

10%
42.0

8.3% 8.6%
8.1%8.2% 8.2%
36.5

7.9%
34.9

40 7.4%7.3%7.2%7.2%
6.7% 7.0% 6.9%
6.5%
29.0

6.0%6.2% 6.2%
27.2
26.4

5.7% 5.4% 5.7%

23.5
23.2

22.7
5.1%
22.0

4.9%
4.5%
19.6

3.8% 3.8% 5%
3.6% 3.6%
20 3.1%2.8% 3.2%
2.8% 2.7% 2.6%
2.1% 2.3% 2.0%2.1%2.1%1.8% 2.0% 1.9% 2.1% 1.8%2.0%
1.7% 1.6% 1.6% 1.0% 1.6%1.7%
1.5% 1.5%
1.1%1.1%1.1% 1.0%1.0% 1.0% 1.1%1.1%1.4%0.9%

4.5
0.6%
0.5%0.5%0.6%0.6%0.7%

3.3

2.9
2.8
0.6%

2.5

2.5

2.3
2.3

1.6

1.4
1.2

1.1
0.9
0.9
0.8

0.5

0.5
0.3
0.3

0 0.2 0%
3M17
3M18

3M17
3M18
3M17
3M18

3M17
3M18
2014
2015
2016
2017

2010
2011
2012

2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2010
2011
2012
2013

2013
2014
2015
2016
2017

2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017

2010
Loan Kol 2 NPL
Source: OJK
 Kondisi kredit kepada industri manufaktur otomotif 3M18
NPL dan Kol 2 cenderung menurun pada 3M18 menunjukkan pemulihan

Motor vehicle industry Caroseries industry Car accessory & spare Motorcycle manufaturing
25
18.8%
part industry & spare part industry 20%

18%

20.5
16.5%

20 16%

18.6
15.2%

12.9%
14%

15.2
14.9

14.6
14.6

14.4
11.6%
15 11.1% 12%
10.4%
IDR trillion

9.8%

11.5
9.5%
10%
8.9%8.7%
8.6%
10.3

9.5% 8.1%
9.7

9.2% 7.6% 7.8%

7.5%
10 7.1% 7.2% 7.2% 8%
8.0% 8.0%
5.7%

7.1
6%
6.4

6.4
6.2

6.1
6.4%

6.0
5.9
5.7

5.5
5.4

5.0
5.2% 3.7%

4.5
3.4% 3.6%
4.4

5 3.3% 4%
4.0

3.7
3.1
2.4%
3.9%
2.6

2.3

2.3
1.7%1.8% 1.8% 3.2% 3.3% 3.2%3.3%
2.0

2.0
1.9

3.1%
1.9
1.9

1.8

1.7
2.7% 2.7%2.9% 2.9% 2%
1.5

1.2% 2.7%1.1%
0.9%
1.0

1.0

2.1% 0.8% 0.8%2.1%2.3%

0.5

0.2%0.1%0.4%0.3%0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 1.6%

1.4%
0 0.7% 0.8% 0.9% 0.8% 0.8% 0.9% 0%
0.4% 0.5% 0.5%0.3%0.5% 0.4% 0.6%
0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
3M18

3M17

3M18
3M17

3M18

3M17
3M18

3M17
2011

2013

2010

2012

2017

2011

2016

2010

2015

2017
2010

2012

2014
2015
2016
2017

2011

2013
2014
2015
2016

2010

2012
2013
2014
2015

2017

2011
2012
2013
2014

2016
Loan Kol 2 NPL
Source: OJK
 Kondisi kredit untuk fasilitas penjualan otomotif (dealer) 3M18
Kol 2 dan NPL untuk semua segemen cenderung menurun, menunjukkan pemulihan

Car dealer Car spareparts dealer Motorcycle dealer Motorcycle spareparts

60 dealer 7%

6.0%
6%
48.1
5.7% 6.1% 5.7%
50
46.9
5.4% 43.8
5.7% 5.2%
42.0

41.1
40.9

5.3% 5%
4.7%
4.6%
40 4.3%
4.2%4.2%
34.8

4.2%
4.0%
3.9%
4.3% 4%
3.7%
IDR trillion

29.6

3.5% 4.0% 4.0%

3.3%
30 3.3%
3.7%
2.9% 3.0% 3.5% 3.5%
2.8% 2.9%
3.1% 3.2% 3.2% 3%

2.2% 2.3%
2.2% 2.1%
20
16.5

2.0%

15.5
2.4% 2.4%
15.2
1.9% 2.4%
14.5

1.8% 1.8% 2%
14.1
2.3% 2.2%2.2% 1.7% 2.3%1.7%

13.4
13.3
13.2

13.2
12.9

12.7

12.7
12.5
12.4
12.3
12.0

2.0% 2.0% 1.5% 1.5%

11.4
11.2
1.9%

10.4
10.3
1.3% 1.3% 1.8%
1.1% 1.1%1.1% 1.6%1.7%

9.4
9.3

1.1%

9.0
1.5%
10

7.7
7.4

1.4% 0.9% 1.4%

7.2
1.2%1.2%
1.3%
1.2%
1.3% 1.2% 1.2% 1.3% 1%
5.4

1.1%
4.2

4.2
1.0% 1.0%
3.4

0.9%

3.0
1.9
0 0%
3M17

3M18

3M17
3M18

3M17
3M18

3M17

3M18
2010

2012

2017

2011

2016

2010

2015

2017

2014

2016
2011

2013
2014
2015
2016

2010

2012
2013
2014
2015

2017

2011
2012
2013
2014

2016

2010
2011
2012
2013

2015

2017
Loan Kol 2 NPL
Source: OJK
 KKB mobil per provinsi 3M18
NPL (%) Kol 2 (%) Loan value (IDR tn) Loan growth (%)

Kalimantan Tengah 4.2 15.1 0.0 -35.1

Nusa Tenggara Barat 3.9 15.1 0.1 -31.9
Bengkulu 3.5 10.4 0.0 -10.7
Nusa Tenggara Timur 3.4 27.8 0.0 -40.8
Sulawesi Tenggara 3.3 7.7 0.1 -14.6
Sumatera Barat 2.5 7.9 0.1 -9.3
Sulawesi Barat 2.5 11.2 0.0 -25.8
Lampung 2.4 5.1 0.2 -20.2
Maluku 1.7 24.3 0.1 57.1
Jambi 1.7 9.1 0.1 -21.1
Gorontalo 1.7 25.7 0.0 -54.4
Kalimantan Timur 1.5 18.2 0.8 0.6
Jawa Barat 1.4 12.1 3.4 17.7
Sulawesi Tengah 1.4 8.3 0.1 -22.8
Sulawesi Selatan 1.3 24.7 2.2 8.7
Sulawesi Utara 1.3 9.5 0.2 -29.2
3Q18
Jawa Tengah 1.1 11.7 1.9 20.5
1.1 3Q17 5.0 0.1 2.2
Kalimantan Selatan
Papua 1.1 3.9 0.0 3.5
Sumatera Selatan 1.1 12.1 0.6 61.5
DKI Jaya 1.0 6.7 78.6 10.9
Maluku Utara 1.0 28.7 0.0 -49.4
Sumatera Utara 0.9 17.4 2.5 22.2
Kalimantan Barat 0.8 15.5 0.3 111.3
Banten 0.7 11.1 6.7 5.5
Daerah Istimewa… 0.7 3.8 0.3 -13.8
Jawa Timur 0.6 11.4 3.4 16.6
Riau 0.6 4.2 0.3 -15.0
NAD 0.5 3.3 0.2 37.2
Bali 0.5 12.9 0.5 48.2
Kep. Bangka Belitung 0.3 7.4 0.1 -5.8
Kep. Riau 0.2 5.6 0.2 -30.0
Papua Barat 0.0 5.3 0.0 -14.9

Source: OJK
 KKB sepeda motor per provinsi 3M18
NPL (%) Kol 2 (%) Loan value (IDR tn) Loan growth (%)

Sumatera Barat 13.2 26.5 0.0 -70.7

Kalimantan Tengah 8.5 27.4 0.0 -82.9
Daerah Istimewa… 7.9 17.9 0.0 -67.0
Lampung 7.2 21.2 0.0 -85.0
Jambi 6.2 36.4 0.0 -81.5
Riau 6.2 13.0 0.0 -76.3
Nusa Tenggara Barat 5.5 38.9 0.0 -77.6
Sulawesi Utara 4.6 17.0 0.0 -78.4
Sulawesi Barat 3.4 10.8 0.0 -28.7
Kalimantan Selatan 3.3 6.4 0.0 -55.2
Sulawesi Tengah 3.3 18.6 0.0 -49.9
Gorontalo 3.3 27.5 0.0 -77.7
DKI Jaya 3.2 17.7 15.3 -6.7
Jawa Barat 2.8 23.8 1.1 -3.0
Bengkulu 2.7 21.1 0.0 -67.5
Sulawesi Selatan 2.7 29.9 0.4 22.9
3Q18
Jawa Timur 2.4 23.0 0.9 -14.1
2.3 3Q17 35.0 0.0 -76.7
Nusa Tenggara Timur
Kalimantan Timur 2.3 19.1 0.5 -1.1
Kep. Riau 2.2 32.2 0.0 -88.9
Papua 2.2 12.5 0.0 18.2
Sumatera Utara 2.2 21.9 1.3 4.2
Kalimantan Barat 1.9 25.3 0.1 111.8
Jawa Tengah 1.9 20.7 0.8 -3.5
Maluku 1.6 32.9 0.0 174.2
Sumatera Selatan 1.4 25.4 0.1 99.6
Maluku Utara 0.9 6.4 0.0 -46.6
Bali 0.8 27.1 0.1 129.0
Banten 0.6 5.7 2.1 31.1
Kep. Bangka Belitung 0.5 11.9 0.0 -73.8
Sulawesi Tenggara 0.3 7.8 0.0 -11.6
NAD 0.1 5.0 0.0 -12.3
Papua Barat 0.0 6.2 0.0 20.2

Source: OJK
 Dealer mobil per provinsi 3M18
NPL (%) Kol 2 (%) Loan value (IDR tn) Loan growth (%)

Riau 21.2 4.6 0.2 -9.6

Kalimantan Timur 15.5 1.9 0.3 -21.7
Bangka Belitung 14.7 1.6 0.0 21.5
Nusa Tenggara Timur 12.1 1.2 0.0 2.3
Sulawesi Tenggara 9.8 1.1 0.1 -9.0
Papua Barat 8.8 4.2 0.0 -18.4
Sulawesi Utara 8.2 6.4 0.2 6.5
Aceh 7.3 4.0 0.1 -63.8
Bengkulu 7.2 3.7 0.1 9.3
Gorontalo 6.4 0.8 0.0 26.2
Bali 6.1 5.5 0.6 5.2
Jawa Barat 6.1 3.6 3.1 1.1
Kalimantan Tengah 6.0 1.7 0.0 -11.2
Jawa Tengah 5.5 2.2 2.5 2.5
Jawa Timur 5.4 2.9 2.7 -7.7
Sulawesi Tengah 5.2 2.4 0.1 1.5
3Q18
Sumatera Barat 4.9 0.7 0.4 7.0
4.8 3Q17 2.3 0.3 0.0
Banten
Kepulauan Riau 4.3 0.0 0.1 -1.1
Sulawesi Selatan 4.1 14.1 2.0 -2.0
Kalimantan Selatan 3.2 1.6 0.7 43.8
Sumatera Selatan 2.8 0.8 1.0 11.7
Sumatera Utara 2.8 3.1 1.3 -15.4
Papua 2.7 4.8 0.0 -21.3
Jambi 2.7 1.9 0.2 -6.0
Sulawesi Barat 2.7 0.2 0.0 -10.8
Kalimantan Barat 2.6 2.3 0.3 6.2
Lampung 2.4 2.8 0.3 14.4
Yogyakarta 2.1 1.4 0.4 -5.4
DKI Jakarta 0.5 2.5 29.4 12.8
Nusa Tenggara Barat 0.3 3.0 0.3 -6.5
Maluku 0.2 0.0 0.0 8.5
Maluku Utara 0.0 11.0 0.0 14.6

Source: OJK
 Dealer sepeda motor per provinsi 3M18
NPL (%) Kol 2 (%) Loan value (IDR tn) Loan growth (%)

Kalimantan Timur 27.3 7.4 0.2 -62.9

Kalimantan Selatan 18.4 1.4 0.1 0.7
Sumatera Selatan 13.4 3.9 0.2 1.1
Kalimantan Barat 8.7 7.1 0.5 31.9
Nusa Tenggara Timur 7.8 0.2 0.0 -0.7
Gorontalo 6.6 2.5 0.0 -36.0
Sumatera Barat 6.2 4.4 0.1 13.9
Sumatera Utara 5.9 4.3 0.4 -42.5
Jawa Timur 5.9 6.1 1.5 -4.6
Kalimantan Tengah 4.7 0.9 0.0 1.5
Banten 4.6 5.3 0.1 9.0
Jawa Tengah 4.4 1.2 2.2 -7.9
Bengkulu 4.0 11.4 0.0 -19.4
Sulawesi Tenggara 4.0 0.2 0.0 -23.3
Aceh 3.8 3.0 0.1 -15.5
Lampung 3.3 2.4 0.2 -13.3
3Q18
Yogyakarta 2.7 0.9 0.3 19.1
2.2 3Q17 1.8 1.3 -9.5
Jawa Barat
Riau 2.0 1.7 0.1 1.9
Bali 1.1 4.7 0.3 -5.1
Sulawesi Barat 1.0 0.4 0.0 -17.0
Sulawesi Tengah 0.9 25.8 0.1 -0.5
Bangka Belitung 0.8 2.6 0.0 -0.5
Sulawesi Utara 0.7 1.7 0.0 -22.0
DKI Jakarta 0.5 2.2 3.7 23.0
Nusa Tenggara Barat 0.4 1.2 0.1 17.0
Sulawesi Selatan 0.2 3.3 0.4 10.8
Kepulauan Riau 0.1 1.2 0.0 44.8
Jambi 0.0 30.2 0.1 -1.7
Maluku 0.0 0.5 0.0 -5.3
Papua 0.0 1.3 0.1 10.4
Maluku Utara 0.0 0.2 0.0 19.8
Papua Barat 0.0 1.0 0.0 54.5

Source: OJK
Multifinance industry
 Pembiayaan multiguna adalah bisnis utama industri multifinance
Pembiayaan multifinance ke sektor rumah tangga tumbuh lebih cepat dari KKB, menunjukkan preferensi
konsumen untuk lebih menggunakan multifinance

Share pembiayaan multifinance – 3M18 Perkembangan pembiayaan multiguna (Rp triliun)

Growth May 18: 8.6% (yoy) 253

0% 6%
233

30%

Nov-17
Feb-17

Sep-17

Feb-18
May-17

May-18
Oct-17
Aug-17
Mar-17

Jun-17

Mar-18
Jul-17
Apr-17

Apr-18
Dec-17
Jan-17

Jan-18
Perkembangan pembiayaan multifinance untuk sektor rumah
tangga (Rp triliun)
5%
Growth May 18: 16.2% (yoy)
59% 64
55

Pembiayaan Investasi Pembiayaan Modal Kerja

Pembiayaan Multiguna Pembiayaan Lainnya

Nov-17
Feb-17

Sep-17

Feb-18
May-17

May-18
Oct-17
Aug-17
Jun-17

Jul-17
Apr-17

Apr-18
Mar-17

Mar-18
Dec-17
Jan-17

Jan-18
Pembiayaan Syariah

Source: OJK
61
Source: OJK
62
IDR tn

100
120

20
40
60
80

-
Jawa Barat
Banten
DKI Jakarta
DI Yogyakarta
Jawa Tengah
Jawa Timur
Bengkulu
Jambi
DI Aceh
Sumatera Utara
Sumatera Barat
Riau
Sumatera Selatan
Bangka-Belitung
Kepulauan Riau

May-17
Lampung
Kalimantan Selatan
May-18 Kalimantan Barat
Kalimantan Timur
Kalimantan Tengah
Kalimantan Utara
Sulawesi Tengah
Sulawesi Selatan
Sulawesi Utara
Pembiayaan multifinance berdasarkan provinsi (Rp triliun)

Gorontalo
Sulawesi Barat
Sulawesi Tenggara
NTB
Bali
NTT
Maluku
Papua
Pembiayaan multifinance terbesar berada di Provinsi Jakarta

Maluku Utara
Papua Barat
 NPL multifinance cenderung meningkat pada tahun 2018 disertai penurunan pertumbuhan
pendapatan selama periode yang sama
Di sisi lain operating marginnya relatif stabil dan cenderung meningkat, sementara efisiensi cenderung membaik

NPL sektor multifinance Pertumbuhan pendapatan sektor multifinance

3.5% 20%
3.4%
3.3% 15%
3.2%
10%
3.1%
3.0% 5%
2.9%
2.8% 0%
May-17

May-18

May-18
May-17
Sep-16

Sep-17

Sep-16

Sep-17
Mar-17

Mar-18
Mar-17

Mar-18
Nov-17
Nov-16

Nov-16

Nov-17
Jan-17

Jul-17

Jan-18

Jan-17

Jul-17

Jan-18
BOPO sektor multifinance Operating margin sektor multifinance

84% 25%
83%
20%
82%
81% 15%
80% 10%
79% 5%
78% 0%
May-17

May-18
Sep-16

Sep-17
Mar-17

Mar-18
Nov-16

Nov-17
Jan-17

Jan-18
Jul-17

Sep-16

Sep-17

May-18
May-17
Mar-17

Mar-18
Nov-16

Nov-17
Jan-17

Jul-17

Jan-18
Thank You