Climatic Change (2014) 127:43–54

DOI 10.1007/s10584-013-0817-1

Temporal patterns of deforestation and fragmentation

in lowland Bolivia: implications for climate change

Jesús N. Pinto-Ledezma & Mary Laura Rivero Mamani

Received: 2 June 2011 / Accepted: 2 June 2013 / Published online: 22 June 2013
# Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013

Abstract The lowlands of eastern and northeastern Bolivia are characterized by a transi-
tion between the humid evergreen forests of the Amazon Basin and the deciduous thorn-
scrub vegetation of the Gran Chaco. Within this landscape lies one of the world’s best
preserved areas: the ecoregion known as the Chiquitano dry forest, where deforestation
patterns over a 30 year period were analyzed. Results indicate that the area of the natural
cover was reduced from 97.21 % before 1976 to 82.10 % in 2008, causing significant
change in the landscape, especially in the spatial configuration of forest cover. The density
of forest fragments increased from 0.073 patches per 100 ha before 1976 to 0.509 in 2008,
with a mean distance between patches of 151 and 210 m over the same period, leading to a
considerable reduction in the fragment sizes, from 1,204 ha before 1976 to a mere 54 in
2008. This pattern, observed in forests, does not occur in the savannas because, on one
hand the savanna area is much lower compared to that of forests, and on the other because
the deforestation process tended to be concentrated within forested areas. Based on the
observed patterns, it is possible that in the future the natural landscapes will be substituted
principally by anthropic landscapes, if there is no change in the economic and land
distribution policies. If this process continues, it will stimulate the expansion of mechanized
agriculture and the colonization of new areas, which will lead to further deforestation and
landscape fragmentation.

This article is part of a Special Issue on "Climate change and adaptation in tropical basins" edited by Pierre
Girard, Craig Hutton, and Jean-Phillipe Boulanger.
Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s10584-013-0817-1)
contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
J. N. Pinto-Ledezma (*) : M. L. Rivero Mamani
Departamento de Ecología, Museo de Historia Natural Noel Kempff Mercado, Universidad Autónoma
Gabriel René Moreno, Av. Irala 565, CC. 2489, Santa Cruz de la Sierra, Bolivia
e-mail: jesuspintoledezma@gmail.com

J. N. Pinto-Ledezma
Carreras de Biología y Ciencias Ambientales, Universidad Autónoma Gabriel René Moreno,
El Vallecito Km. 9 carretera al Norte, CC. 702, Santa Cruz de la Sierra, Bolivia
44 Climatic Change (2014) 127:43–54

1 Introduction

The global impacts of the growing human population are reflected in extensive changes in the
spatial patterns of land cover and land use (O’Neill et al. 1996; Dale et al. 2000). Since the last
millennium, the human population rise is the strongest driver of change on the planet (Dale et al.
2000) including the modification of the global climatic system, reduction in the stratospheric
ozone, alteration of biogeochemistry cycles, changes in the distribution and abundance of
biological resources, and decreases in water quality (Meyer and Turner 1994; Fearnside 1995;
Mahlman 1997). Anthropogenic, ecological, and land-surface processes interact and occur in
landscapes at multiple scales (Southworth et al. 2006).
The rapid destruction and degradation of tropical forest is an important source of greenhouse
gas emissions and could play an important role in exacerbating global warming (Dale 1997;
Fearnside 2000; Houghton et al. 2000; Lawton et al. 2001; Fearnside and Laurance 2004). One
of the main drivers of the transformation of earth by humans is the effort to provide food,
shelter, and other products for human consumption which deeply affect biological and physical
systems (Kates et al. 1990). In fact, changes in land use decrease the ability of the planet to
continue providing goods and services on which humans depend, as they result in the loss of
flora, fauna and ecosystems (Spies et al. 1994; Murcia 1995; Laurance and Bierregaard 1997;
Gascon et al. 1999; Pinto-Ledezma and Ruiz 2010).
At a global level, some estimates suggest that 9 million km2 of tropical humid forests have
been lost in the last 50 years and that the current extinction rate of fauna and flora is not only
high but accelerating (Pimm et al. 2001). Achard et al. (2002) estimated an annual deforestation
rate of 0.38 % of humid tropical forest in Latin America. Currently in Latin America,
deforestation and fragmentation are the main causes of ecosystem deterioration (Dirzo and
Garcia 1992; Pacheco 1998; Steininger et al. 2001; Camacho et al. 2001; Pinto-Ledezma and
Ruiz 2010). Bolivia still contains around 400,000 km2 of intact tropical forests, which corre-
sponds to 90 % of its original tropical forest cover (Killeen et al. 2007). Yet, deforestation is
rapidly advancing at an annual rate of around 0.5 %, and Bolivia is classified as a country at the
forest frontier (Angelsen 2007).
In Bolivia, one of the greatest impacts is in the lowlands of the Department of Santa Cruz,
which comprises over a third of the total area of the country (37 million hectares) an in recent
decades has suffered from very rapid changes in the cover and structure of its forests (Steininger
et al. 2001; Killeen et al. 2007, 2008; Pinto-Ledezma and Ruiz 2010). These changes in forest
cover and structure are mainly produced by the high rate of human immigration and consequent
activities, such as mechanical agriculture (Pacheco 1998, 2006; Killeen et al. 2007; Pinto-
Ledezma and Ruiz 2010). The development of the agricultural frontier in Santa Cruz began
only recently, in the late 1950s, driven by small and large scale farmers seeking mainly to
supply agricultural goods to the domestic market. Since the mid-1980’s, producers have looked
for ways to increase the exports of some commodities, primarily soybeans to regional markets.
The expansion of the agricultural frontier in Santa Cruz, with the subsequent deforestation, has
been accelerated since the mid-1980s as a result of shifts in the government’s macroeconomic
policy, and efforts to open up external markets, in order to increase the contribution of
agricultural exports to national revenues (Pacheco 1998).
In this paper, we focus on the Chiquitano Ecoregion (hereafter, “Chiquitanía”), located in
the eastern of Bolivian lowlands, within the Department of Santa Cruz (Fig. 1), an area of
approximately 20,000 km2 of deciduous forest. Here, mechanized cash crop production is
steadily expanding, mainly for the cultivation of soybeans for export (Hecht 2005), such that
the department of Santa Cruz has experienced some of the greatest rates of land-use change
in all of Latin America. The region subjected to greatest deforestation is the fertile alluvial
Climatic Change (2014) 127:43–54 45

Fig. 1 Study area, shows the location of the Chiquitano Dry Forest in Bolivia, also shown the main cities,
rivers and roads

plain situated to the east of the Andes where the cultivation of soybeans and other crops has
expanded exponentially since the early 1990s (Pacheco 1998; Steininger et al 2001; Mertens
et al. 2004; Kaimowitz et al 2002).
Based on the situation described above, the central goal of this article is to quantify and
report on the long term deforestation and fragmentation of the region. We focus on the land
use practices utilized over a period of >30 years in one of the best-preserved patches of
Neotropical Dry Forest in the world—the Chiquitano dry forest of the Chiquitanía—which
can serve as a model for the implementation of policies intended to reduce deforestation and
46 Climatic Change (2014) 127:43–54

protect biodiversity. We also report on the spatial distribution of forest-savanna cover for the
entire Chiquitanía.

2 Study area and methods

2.1 Lowland Bolivia and Chiquitanía

The eastern and northeastern portion of Bolivia is composed of vast lowlands with an
elevation mostly below 500 m. Vegetation is composed of both forest and grasslands, and
humidity and moisture decrease from north to south. The forests of eastern lowland Bolivia
are situated across a zone of climatic transition between the humid evergreen forests of the
Amazon in the north and the deciduous thorn-scrub vegetation of the Gran Chaco in the
south (Killeen et al. 2006).
The Chiquitano dry forest is a term used to describe a complex of forest communities that
occur across the climatic transition described above (Killeen et al. 1998), representing what is
probably the largest extant patch of what is now broadly recognized as the Neotropical seasonal
dry tropical forest complex (Prado and Gibbs 1993; Prado 2000; Killeen et al. 2006). The
Chiquitano dry forest ranges from completely deciduous in the south to semi-deciduous in the
north, while the degree of deciduousness in the intervening areas is highly variable depending
on the amount of precipitation that falls within any given year at any given place.

2.2 Image processing and deforestation and fragmentation analysis methodology

To analyze the spatial and temporal patterns of deforestation and fragmentation in the Chiquitanía,
a set of five mosaics of Landsat scenes (pre1976, 1986, 1992, 2001, and 2008) were used. The
details of the image processing and the analysis of deforestation and fragmentation can be found
in the Electronic Supplementary Material.
Shortly, a supervised classification was conducted using the result of two field visits where
geo-referenced data of the main types of coverage were collected. The classification process
resulted in three thematic classes: forest, savanna and deforested (Fig. 2). The term “defores-
tation” is used here when there is a replacement of natural cover (forest and savannas) by
cultivated pastures, agricultural fields, urban areas and/or human settlements (Dirzo and Garcia
1992; Pinto-Ledezma and Ruiz 2010). The term “fragmentation” refers to a disruption in the
continuity of natural covers (Lord and Norton 1990), and the subdivision of landscapes into
smaller units (Laverty and Gibbs 2007).

3 Results and discussion

3.1 Deforestation patterns and land cover changes

Deforestation affects all habitats in lowland Bolivia, as well as natural disturbances (e.g. floods,
wildfires. The savanna cover (Cerrado and Chaco woodland) did not show substantial loss to
deforestation, with a change of only 2.66 % until 2008 (Table 1), However, the total land area
deforested increased from 2.79 % pre1976 to 17.89 % in 2008, with intermediate values of
4.33 % (1986), 7.25 % (1992), and 13.96 % (2001). This pattern can also be observed by high
deforestation rates (r) in the study area (Fig. 2 and Table 1) during this period, when the Amazon
and Chiquitano dry forest had the highest losses (12.34 %) within the region, until 2008.
Climatic Change (2014) 127:43–54 47

Table 1 Areas in hectares of natural habitats (forest and savannas) and deforestation (ha and % approxi-
mately) for the five periods of study and entire Chiquitano Ecoregion. Also shown rates of total deforestation
for the five periods analyzed

Natural % natural Total % total Total Total r r (%)

habitat habitat natural natural deforestation deforestation (%)
habitat habitat

Pre1976
Forest 13082553 79.76 15836723 97.20 457025 2.79 −0.001 −0.135a
Savanna 2754170 16.79
1986
Forest 12847943 78.33 15583817 95.64 709931 4.33 −0.002 −0.161
Savanna 2735874 16.68
1992
Forest 12437493 75.82 15104136 92.70 1189612 7.25 −0.005 −0.521
Savanna 2666643 16.26
2001
Forest 11524984 70.26 14004458 85.95 2289290 13.96 −0.008 −0.840
Savanna 2479474 15.12
2008
Forest 11059117 67.42 13377521 82.10 2917190 17.89 −0.007 −0.654
Savanna 2318404 14.13
a
Represent the annual deforestation rate in the first period of study, the starting year of the first period is
considered 1950, year where performed the first national census of agriculture (Bethell 2008)

The factors that drive the alteration of natural landscapes are diverse, involving both natural
and anthropic changes (Skole and Tucker 1993; Steininger et al. 2001; Pacheco and Mertens
2004; Killeen et al. 2007; Müller et al. 2010), although the latter is the most frequent and results
in a major impact on the Bolivian lowlands (Steininger et al. 2001; Killeen et al. 2007; Pinto-
Ledezma and Ruiz 2010). In this sense, the main cause of the deforestation and fragmentation in
this region are demographic factors (primarily immigration), which increased due to govern-
ment policies between 1950 and 1980. During this period, the importation of agricultural goods
was replaced by domestic production, mainly rice, cotton, and sugarcane (Pacheco and Mertens
2004; Pacheco 2006; Pinto-Ledezma and Ruiz 2010), causing an increase in the region’s human
population. As a result, the Chiquitanía currently has one of the highest population growth rates
in Bolivia (INE 2005). As a consequence of these high immigration rates and the resulting use
of soil in the study area, there is a decrease of the original covers (especially forests), and
changes in their spatial configuration (see supplemental material for detailed information).

3.2 Forest and savanna fragmentation

During the study period, there have been changes in the size, number, distance and spatial
distribution of fragments, with different patterns in forests and savannas. As the study area
became increasingly deforested, there were synchronous effects on the remaining forest-
savanna habitat (Table 2). In this sense, we examined the behavior of some landscape metrics
at different temporal scales (pre1976, 1992, and 2008), and at the class level (Table 2).
The spatial configuration of the forest changed substantially between 1976 and 2006 in
the study area, and the mean size of forest patches decreased considerably as a function of an
48 Climatic Change (2014) 127:43–54

Fig. 2 Maps derived from satellite images of medium resolution (Landsat TM and ETM). Forest (gray),
savannas (clear gray), and deforested areas (black) for the five periods of study

increase in deforestation, causing an increase in the density of patches and in the distance
between them, as the forest underwent substantial fragmentation. These results corroborate
other analyses of change in the cover and spatial patterns of the forest (Gavier and Bucher
2004; McGarigal et al. 2001. In 1976 the density was 0.073, and increased to 0.509
patches/100 ha in 2008. This pattern is not repeated in savannas, since the density of patches
of savanna decreased (0.229 in pre1976 to 0.183 in 2008). This decrease may be due to the
fact that savannas are naturally fragmented. This increase and decrease in patch density is

Table 2 Representation of spatial pattern at class level (forest and savannas) for three periods of study
(pre1976, 1992, and 2008), based on six landscape metrics for the central Chiquitanía (San Julián district)

PLAND NP MPS PD MNN IJI DI

pre1976
Forest 92.519 415 1204 0.073 151 61.625 0.071
Savanna 5.804 1296 24 0.229 389 25.697 0.567
1992
Forest 71.931 1622 241 0.287 158 59.106 0.288
Savanna 5.815 1411 22 0.249 367 28.381 0.582
2008
Forest 27.333 2883 54 0.509 210 14.071 0.682
Savanna 4.389 1038 24 0.183 170 24.735 0.198

PLAND Percentage of landscape, NP number of patches, MPS mean patch size, PD patch density, MNN mean
nearest neighbor distance, IJI interspersion and juxtaposition index, and DI dispersion index
Climatic Change (2014) 127:43–54 49

also evident in the mean nearest neighbor distance between patches (MNN), which in pre
1976 had a value of 151 m for forest patches, and of 389 m for patches of savanna, which
was increasing along with the increase in patch density (Table 2). By the year 2008, there was a
mean distance between forest patches of 210 m, but of 170 m for patches of savanna, which was
expected because savanna patch density decreased (PD=0.183). Additionally, there was an
increase in the mean size of savanna patches (24 ha.) relative to the previous period (22 ha.), and
in the aggregated distribution of patches of savanna (Fig. 2 and Table 2). This is also explained
by a general pattern of extensive patches being divided into smaller areas. The mean size of
forest patches (MPS) decreased year by year as a function of the deforested surface area, from
an area of 1204 ha in pre 1976, to 54 ha in 2008. There was a slight decrease in the size of
patches of savanna up to 1992 (from 24 ha in pre1976 to 22 ha in 1992), with the peculiarity that
there was a recovery in the size of the patches in 2008 (Table 2).
The index of dispersion shows that for all the years analyzed, the distribution of forest
patches and savannas was aggregated, although as years go by this pattern tended to become
random, especially in the case of forests, where the index of dispersion (ID) increased from
0.071 in pre1976 to 0.682 in 2008. Savannas practically did not change in the first two study
periods (pre1976 and 1991), showing little increase by 1991; however, in 2008 the ID value
decreased to 0.198 and patches tended to become more aggregated, which corroborates the
results presented above (Table 2).
The index of interspersion and juxtaposition (IJI) indicates a decrease in the mixing of
patches over time, especially in forests, where it changed from 61.625 in pre1976 to 14.071 in
2008, which helps to explain changes in landscape patterns measured with other metrics
(Table 2). This is evident in 2008, when neighboring patches of forest and savanna tended to
lose connections and to be distributed at random, showing a high level of landscape fragmen-
tation in the study area.
Notably, a clear growth in deforestation rates from pre1976 to 2008 is evident, especially
in the last periods (2001 and 2008), which is the same or greater than deforestation rates
reported at the national level (Camacho et al. 2001; Steininger et al. 2001; Killeen et al.
2007), or than those of other tropical and subtropical regions of the world (Dirzo and Garcia
1992; Skole and Tucker 1993; Achard et al. 2002; Staus et al. 2002; Hansen et al. 2009).
For savannas, patterns of deforestation and fragmentation were not observed to be substantial,
possibly because of: i) the initial reduced surface of the savannas in relation to that of forest
(Table 2; % of natural habitat), ii) the spatial distribution of savannas (Table 2), iii) the
inaccessibility to land, and iv) an increase in deforestation, resulting on one hand in a decrease
of savanna patch density and on the other hand, in the disappearance of patches of savannah
(Fig. 3 and Table 2), causing the formation of savanna relicts. Even if a substantial decrease in
savanna surface (PLAND=4389) and patch size (MPS=24) by the year 2008 was not observed,
substantial changes in other metrics are evident (Table 2), which explains the observed formation
of savanna relicts (Fig. 2), as well as a decrease in the distance between patches of savanna
(PD=0.183; MNN=170), resulting in an aggregated distribution of these patches (ID=0.198).

4 Climate change implications

By the year 2100, global mean temperatures could increase from 1° to 4.2° C (IPCC 2001;
Solomon et al. 2007). In Bolivia, major warming is expected in the Amazon region (IPCC 2001;
Seiler 2009; Andersen and Mamani 2009), a situation that implies changes in temporal and
spatial precipitation and evapotranspiration (Watson et al 1997; Mulligan 2000). The increase in
temperature expected in the Bolivian lowlands by 2030 is of about 1.3 °C (SRES scenario A2;
50 Climatic Change (2014) 127:43–54

Fig. 3 a Dynamics of
forest-savanna habitat and
a
100 Forest
deforestation for the five
90 Savanna
periods of study, values in
80 Deforestation
percent show how forest and
savanna lost their surfaces 70

% of total area
and how the deforestation 60
increase, b Change in time 50
(% of deforestation) of 40
forest and savanna habitat
30
20
10
0
pre1976 1986 1992 2001 2008

b
20
Forest
18
Savanna
16
% of deforestation

14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
1986 1992 2001 2008

for more detailed information, see Seiler 2009). By 2100, temperature increases are predicted to
be about 4.7 °C, with the strongest temperature increases occurring around August and
September (Seiler 2009). In addition, the lowlands show a latitudinal temperature gradient,
with a relative increase in temperature in a northerly direction. This tendency becomes even
more pronounced in 2100 (Seiler 2009). Additionally, the precipitation cycle is predicted to
intensify, with more precipitation during the rainy season and less precipitation during the dry
season. Most maximum relative increases of precipitation will occur from April to June and
most maximum relative decreases of precipitation will be from July to August (Seiler 2009). By
2030 (SRES scenarios A2 and B2), the precipitation is predicted to decrease by about −28 % in
the Bolivian lowlands, and by 2100 the maximum reduction in precipitation is by about −36 %
(Seiler 2009), similar to what happened in the 60’s and early 70’s in the past century (see
supplemental material for examples). Finally, by 2030 an annual net increase of precipitation
will occur in the southern lowlands (mainly in the dry forest).
The rapid destruction and degradation of tropical forest is considered a major source of
greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide, and could play an
important role in exacerbating global warming (Dale 1997; Fearnside 2000; Houghton et al.
2000; Fearnside and Laurance 2004). This destruction and degradation is caused mainly by
land use change and expansion of agriculture (Grau et al. 2005; Pinto-Ledezma and Ruiz
2010), and is related to climate change as both a causal factor and a major way in which the
effects of climate change are expressed (Dale 1997). Recently, climate change after tropical
deforestation has been studied using several approaches, including global climate modeling,
regional climate modeling, theoretical approaches, and field observations (Berbet and Heil
Climatic Change (2014) 127:43–54 51

2003). These studies explain changes in precipitation after the conversion of tropical forest
(Eltahir 1996), demonstrating that precipitation change over deforested areas is not uniform
(Berbet and Heil 2003), and that differences in precipitation are seasonal. However, the
increase in the surface albedo after deforestation causes a reduction in the net surface radiation,
which cools the upper atmosphere over the deforested area, reducing aerodynamic roughness
length and mechanically turbulent mixing in the boundary layer. Additionally, a reduction in
evapotranspiration, and an increase in the ratio of connective sensible heat transfers latent heat
from the surface to the atmosphere, inducing a thermally driven circulation that results in
subsidence (Lawton et al. 2001; Berbet and Heil 2003). This change in surface albedo has been
considered the most important driver of climate change-induced deforestation (Dirmeyer and
Shukla 1994; Nouvellon et al. 2000; Berbet and Heil 2003).
The direct contribution of tropical deforestation to atmospheric GHG has been recog-
nized (Naughton-Treves 2004), but the net role of the tropics in the global carbon cycle
remains uncertain (De Jong et al. 2000; Houghton et al. 2000; Naughton-Treves 2004).
Every year, between 1.6 and 2.4 Pg of carbon are released to the atmosphere from tropical
forest clearing (De Jong et al. 2000; Fearnside 2000). By these estimates, tropical
deforestation accounts for roughly 20–29 % of global anthropogenic greenhouse gas
emissions (Watson et al. 2000; Solomon et al. 2007). In addition, inter-annual variation
in climate and atmospheric CO2 concentrations alter carbon uptake rates and forest-
savanna covers, increasing their flammability (Nepstad et al. 2001; Naughton-Treves
2004) and tree mortality, allowing for greater light penetration and lowering humidity
levels in the understory (Killeen et al. 2007). Similarly, land use change commonly alters
surface soil structure by compaction and thus reduces infiltration of rainfall and increases runoff,
with the end result of reducing soil moisture and increasing the chance of wildfire (Lawton et al.
2001), which is why understanding the dynamics of land use is key for more accurate modeling
of global climate.

4.1 Sustainable land use and forest management as an alternative

In the Bolivian lowlands, deforestation, not climate change, is the major immediate threat to
the forest and its biodiversity. Deforestation is the main source of Bolivian GHG emission
(10 tCO2/person) (Andersen and Mamani 2009), and if immigration, road construction and
globalization of the agricultural economy continue, we expect high rates of deforestation to
continue. As a result, it is necessary to develop novel resource use plans, and generate new
policies to improve conservation. Sustainable land use and forest management (Bucher and
Huszar 1999) become the better alternative, because the present management system is
degrading the resource base and is therefore unsustainable. This is important because the
process of landscape transformation observed in the study area is a risk for one of the most
important ecosystems in the Bolivian lowlands, from ecological, functional and economic
points of view. Therefore, the implementation of an adequate management system with the
ability to protect land, enhance the resource base and provide higher net returns in a
sustainable manner, is an alternative to reduce the advancement of deforestation and its
influences on climate change. Additionally, the development of social policies is likely
necessary to overcome the resistance of campesinos (i.e., indigenous Andean colonists) and
larger producers to this management system (Huszar 1999), because management requires
an initial investment that may be uneconomical in the short-term to campesinos and even
larger producers (Bucher and Huszar 1999).
Finally, it is important to enforce existing laws and if necessary offer economic and tax
incentives to promote forest conservation, including compensation for ecological services.
52 Climatic Change (2014) 127:43–54

Acknowledgments We are grateful to the reviewers for their contributions. We thank Alex E. Jahn and Daniel
Villarroel for helpful comments on earlier versions of this manuscript. We are also grateful to the Museo de
Historia Natural Noel Kempff Mercado for sharing their extensive data set on deforestation. This manuscript was
funded by the CNPq fellowship EXP-C (Projeto Sinergia-nº6 do CTHidro) to JNPL.

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