Bull Volcanol (2012) 74:2205–2218
DOI 10.1007/s00445-012-0656-3
RESEARCH ARTICLE
Hazard assessment of far-range volcanic ash dispersal
from a violent Strombolian eruption at Somma-Vesuvius
volcano, Naples, Italy: implications on civil aviation
Roberto Sulpizio & Arnau Folch & Antonio Costa &
Chiara Scaini & Pierfrancesco Dellino
Received: 16 March 2012 / Accepted: 7 September 2012 / Published online: 27 September 2012
# Springer-Verlag 2012
Abstract Long-range dispersal of volcanic ash can disrupt
civil aviation over large areas, as occurred during the 2010
eruption of Eyjafjallajökull volcano in Iceland. Here we assess
the hazard for civil aviation posed by volcanic ash from a
potential violent Strombolian eruption of Somma-Vesuvius,
the most likely scenario if eruptive activity resumed at this
volcano. A Somma-Vesuvius eruption is of concern for two
main reasons: (1) there is a high probability (38 %) that the
eruption will be violent Strombolian, as this activity has been
common in the most recent period of activity (between AD
1631 and 1944); and (2) violent Strombolian eruptions typically
last longer than higher-magnitude events (from 3 to 7 days for
the climactic phases) and, consequently, are likely to cause
prolonged air traffic disruption (even at large distances if a
Editorial responsibility: S. Calvari
R. Sulpizio (*) : P. Dellino
Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra e Geoambientali,
via Orabona 4,
70125 Bari, Italy
e-mail: roberto.sulpizio@uniba.it
R. Sulpizio
IDPA-CNR,
via Mario Bianco 9,
Milan, Italy
A. Folch : C. Scaini
Barcelona Supercomputing Center—Centro Nacional de
Supercomputación (BSC-CNS),
Barcelona, Spain
A. Costa
Environmental Systems Science Centre, University of Reading,
Reading, UK
A. Costa
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia,
Naples, Italy
substantial amount of fine ash is produced such as is typical
during Vesuvius eruptions). We compute probabilistic hazard
maps for airborne ash concentration at relevant flight levels
using the FALL3D ash dispersal model and a statistically
representative set of meteorological conditions. Probabilistic
hazard maps are computed for two different ash concentration
thresholds, 2 and 0.2 mg/m3, which correspond, respectively, to
the no-fly and enhanced procedure conditions defined in
Europe during the Eyjafjallajökull eruption. The seasonal influ-
ence of ash dispersal is also analysed by computing seasonal
maps. We define the persistence of ash in the atmosphere as the
time that a concentration threshold is exceeded divided by the
total duration of the eruption (here the eruption phase producing
a sustained eruption column). The maps of averaged persistence
give additional information on the expected duration of the
conditions leading to flight disruption at a given location. We
assess the impact that a violent Strombolian eruption would
have on the main airports and aerial corridors of the Central
Mediterranean area, and this assessment can help those who
devise procedures to minimise the impact of these long-lasting
low-intensity volcanic events on civil aviation.
Keywords Volcanic ash . Aviation safety . Hazard maps .
Somma-Vesuvius . FALL3D
Introduction
Volcanic ash, during dispersal and deposition, is among the
major hazards from explosive eruptions. Volcanic ash fall-
out can disrupt communities downwind (e.g. Blong 1984;
Witham and Oppenheimer 2004; Le Pennec et al. 2011),
interrupt surface transportation networks (e.g. Martin et al.
2009) and lead to closure of airports (e.g. Guffanti et al.
2009). Airborne ash seriously threatens modern jet aircraft
2206
in flight (Casadevall 1993). In several documented cases,
encounters between aircraft and volcanic clouds have
resulted in engine flameout and near crashes (Miller and
Casadevall 2000), so there is a need to accurately predict the
trajectory of volcanic ash clouds in order to improve avia-
tion safety and reduce economic losses. The ash clouds
affect aviation even in distal regions, as demonstrated by
several eruptions with far-range dispersal. Recent examples
include Crater Peak 1992 (Casadevall and Krohn 1995;
Schneider et al. 1995), Tungurahua 1999–2001 (Ruiz et al.
2004), Mount Cleveland 2001 (Simpson et al. 2002), Chaitén
2008 (Folch et al. 2008; Watt et al. 2009), Eyjafjallajökull
2010 (Langmann et al. 2011), Grimsvötn 2011 (Kerminen et
al. 2011) and Cordón-Caulle 2011 (GVP 2011). Amongst
these, the April–May 2010 eruption of Eyjafjallajökull in
Iceland provoked the largest civil aviation breakdown
(Oxford-Economics 2010).
In response to this hazard, the Volcanic Ash Advisory
Centres (VAACs), operating worldwide, issue periodic vol-
canic ash advisories, including the forecast location of vol-
canic ash clouds. The official criterion established by the
International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) is to avoid
any ash-contaminated airspace (“zero-ash” tolerance), al-
though less-restrictive options were adopted in Europe dur-
ing the Eyjafjallajökull crisis. In particular, quantitative
criteria based on airborne ash concentration thresholds were
used to define no-fly and enhanced-procedures zones. These
two zones were delimited by airborne ash concentrations of
2 and 0.2 mg/m3, respectively (ICAO 2010).
Beyond the need for short-term forecasting of ash clouds,
recent events have also revealed the importance of having
information to support pre-emergency responses and long-
term planning. To this end, probabilistic hazard maps are
extremely valuable. For example, at the onset of an emergency
(pre-eruptive phase) hazard maps can provide a preliminary
assessment days/weeks in advance, when deterministic fore-
casts are not yet possible. Probabilistic hazard maps have
traditionally focused on ash fallout, however, and maps for
ash concentration at different atmospheric levels are almost
non-existent. To our knowledge, the only two examples are
Papp et al. (2005), who estimated the probability distribution
of airborne ash in the North Pacific region, and Folch and
Sulpizio (2010), who simulated the dispersal of ash from
Somma-Vesuvius (SV). In particular, Folch and Sulpizio
(2010) generated probabilistic maps for ash fallout and air-
borne ash concentration at two atmospheric levels
(corresponding to flight levels of FL050 and FL300) for an
intermediate magnitude event (AD 472 Subplinian event;
Sulpizio et al., 2005). Such a scenario (Subplinian I type,
Cioni et al. 2008), is characterized by a relatively large amount
of erupted tephra (5×1011 kg) and short eruption duration
(12 h), and has a probability of occurrence estimated between
17 % (Neri et al. 2008) and 27 % (Marzocchi et al. 2004).
Bull Volcanol (2012) 74:2205–2218
Here we assess the hazard for civil aviation associated
with a violent Strombolian eruption at SV. This eruptive
scenario is of concern for two main reasons. Firstly, violent
Strombolian eruptions have a high eruption type probability
of occurrence (38 %, 90 % credible value interval of 8–87 %
according to Neri et al. 2008), because this type of event has
been quite common in the most recent period of activity at
SV (between AD 1631 and 1944; Arrighi et al. 2001; Cioni
et al. 2008; Santacroce et al. 2008). If we also consider the
repose time, then if an eruption takes place after 60 to
200 years of quiescence, there is a 72 % probability that
the eruption will be a violent Strombolian one (Marzocchi et
al. 2004). Secondly, violent Strombolian eruptions at Vesu-
vius typically last longer (from 3 to 7 days; Arrighi et al.
2001) than larger magnitude events and are likely to cause
more prolonged air traffic disruption, even far from the
volcano, if a substantial amount of fine ash is erupted. This
work is an extension to the work by Folch and Sulpizio
(2010) on the ash dispersal during a violent Strombolian SV
scenario; we now use substantially improved volcanological
assumptions and computational methodologies (discussed in
a later section). The main objective is to study the expected
effect on civil aviation of a low-intensity eruption by gen-
erating probabilistic hazard maps of ash concentration at
selected flight levels, and computing the persistency, de-
fined as the time that a given ash concentration threshold
is exceeded.
The paper is arranged as follows. First, we briefly over-
view the eruptive history of low-intensity eruptions at SV
and define the violent Strombolian eruption scenario. Sec-
ond, we describe the methodology used to generate the
probabilistic hazard maps including a strategy for sampling
model input data efficiently. Finally, we present the results
and discuss the implications in terms of impact on civil
aviation.
Eruptive history of low-intensity eruptions at Somma-
Vesuvius
SV is a composite volcano that has experienced different
types of volcanic activity, from effusive and cone building
(mildly explosive) to Plinian eruptions (highly explosive).
SV has been among the most active volcanoes in the Med-
iterranean area since 39 ka (Santacroce et al. 2008), and its
explosive eruptions are responsible for numerous wide-
spread ash fall deposits found on land and undersea in the
Central Mediterranean and Balkans (e.g. Keller et al. 1978;
Paterne et al. 1988; Wulf et al. 2004; Sulpizio et al. 2008;
2010a; 2010b). In particular, four Plinian eruptions punctu-
ated the activity of SV: Pomici di Base, 22.5 calendar (cal)
ka BP (Bertagnini et al. 1998), Pomici di Mercato, 8.9 cal ka
BP (Mele et al. 2011), Pomici di Avellino, 3.9 cal ka BP
Bull Volcanol (2012) 74:2205–2218
(Sulpizio et al. 2010c; 2010d) and Pompeii Pumice, AD 79
(Sigurdsson et al. 1985). Recently, deposits of two earlier
large explosive events in the area (Schiava Pumice, 36 cal
ka BP and Codola, 36 cal ka BP) have also been tentatively
attributed to SV (Di Vito et al. 2008). Cioni et al. (2008)
classified the intermediate intensity explosive eruptions of
SV into Subplinian I and Subplinian II categories. The
Subplinian I group comprises the Greenish (36 cal ka BP;
Cioni et al. 2003), the AD 472 (Sulpizio et al. 2005) and the
AD 1631 (Rosi et al. 1993) eruptions. The Subplinian II
group contains several other minor events, which include
the AP1, AP2 and AD 512 eruptions. Finally, low-intensity
explosive eruptions have been grouped into the violent
Strombolian type, which typically includes the explosive
activity between AD 472 and AD 1631 eruptions (AS ac-
tivity in Cioni et al. 2008), and the post AD 1631 events
(Arrighi et al. 2001), which ended with the last eruption of
SV in 1944. Usually, violent Strombolian eruptions rep-
resent a phase within a long-lasting eruption character-
ised by alternating effusive and mild explosive activity
(Table 1). Products from the violent Strombolian erup-
tions consist of massive to crudely stratified, coarse-to-
fine scoriaceous lapilli with a variable amount of acces-
sory lithics. Moreover, thin phreatomagmatic (lithic-rich
and accretionary lapilli-bearing) fine-ash beds were dis-
persed up to the medial sectors (10–15 km from the
source) during the final phreatomagmatic phases of the
eruptions (Arrighi et al. 2001; Cioni et al. 2008). The
total grain size distribution of the violent Strombolian
events can differ substantially from eruption to eruption.
This mainly depends on the energy released during
fragmentation in different phases of the eruption, possi-
bly including phreatomagmatic fragmentation due to
magma–water interaction. The violent Strombolian
events typically span a few days (Arrighi et al. 2001;
Cioni et al. 2008).
Methodology
Probabilistic hazard maps require the definition of eruptive
scenarios (with associated probability), a meteorological
dataset covering a representative time period and a tephra
transport and dispersal model (e.g. Folch 2012). Probabilis-
tic maps result from weighting hundreds/thousands of sim-
ulations, typically using analytical tephra transport models,
and considering different meteorological conditions and
volcanological inputs. In the case of airborne ash hazard
maps and/or for modelling far-range dispersal, however,
analytical models are inadequate and the use of time-
dependent numerical models is required (e.g. Folch and
Sulpizio 2010), something that makes the development of
probabilistic maps computationally expensive.
2207
Definition of the eruptive scenario
Volcanological inputs (eruption column height, eruption
duration, erupted mass, total grain-size distribution, particle
density and shape and mass fraction of aggregates) for low-
intensity eruptions at SV encompass a wide range of values.
For example, estimated eruption durations vary from a few
to several days, and averaged column heights range from ~4
to ~10 km (Arrighi et al. 2001; Cioni et al. 2008; Table 1).
Considering such variability, it is clear that the eruptive
scenario cannot be adequately defined using single values
for the volcanological inputs. In order to account for this
variability, we determined a range for each eruptive param-
eter and assumed symmetric beta probability density func-
tion (PDF) between the extreme values of the range
(Table 2). Once a PDF is defined, volcanological inputs
for each run are sampled using a stratified sampling method
(Krishnaiah and Rao 1988) that involves dividing the pop-
ulation into mutually exclusive (i.e. each element is only
assigned to one stratum), exhaustive (i.e. no elements are
excluded) and homogeneous sub-groups (strata) before sam-
pling. We used stratified sampling rather than the classic
Monte Carlo technique because it is computationally more
efficient for our application (Fig. 1).
Modelling strategy
The modelling strategy uses a meteorological re-analysis
dataset with the FALL3D tephra dispersal model (Costa et
al. 2006; Folch et al. 2009). We generated a set of synoptic
meteorological fields for a 10-year period (2001–2010) from
the NCEP-DOE reanalysis 2 (2.5° spatial resolution, 17
pressure levels; Kalnay et al. 1996). Meteorological varia-
bles, including wind speed, air temperature, density, pres-
sure and humidity, were linearly interpolated to the temporal
and spatial resolution used by the FALL3D model. FALL3D
is a tephra transport and dispersal model covering spatial
scales from local to continental. Given the meteorological
fields and the volcanological inputs (eruption source param-
eters, (ESP) and total grain size distribution (TGSD)), the
model outputs time-dependent tephra deposition on the
ground (i.e. accumulation rate and deposit load/thickness)
and atmospheric concentration variables. In order to gener-
ate the probabilistic hazard maps, we considered 1,000
simulations with the following characteristics:
& Start of the eruption (day and hour) was sampled ran-
domly assuming a uniform distribution within the
10 years interval (2001–2010).
& Eruption duration was sampled in the interval 3 to 7 days
(Table 1). Since we do not have enough data to constrain
the real statistical distribution of eruption duration, for
simplicity we assumed a Beta distribution centred in the
2208 Bull Volcanol (2012) 74:2205–2218

Table 1 Physical parameters of selected eruptions of the post AD 1631 activity at Somma-Vesuvius

Eruption Bed DRE vol. Est. tot. mass Durationa Fallout mass Ht (W&W) Duration climactic
(×106 m3) (×1011 kg) (days) (×1011 kg) (km) (days)

1944 March 23 – – – – 4 –
1944 March 22 – – – – 6 –
1944 total – 2.00b 17 0.79c 5 7
1906 EX3 9.98 0.68 – 0.27 11.4 –
1906 EX2 2.24 0.15 – 0.06 7.9 –
1906 EX1 1.45 0.10 – 0.04 5.7 –
1906 total 13.67 0.93 18 0.37 7
1822 G1, 2, 3 + BSR1, 2, 3 12.82 0.88 – 0.35 10.4 –
1822 G0 1.63 0.11 – 0.04 5.2 –
1822 total 14.45 0.99 26 0.39 3
1730 0.41 0.03 33 0.01 5.9 3
1723 3.43 0.23 79 0.09 2.8 6
1707 0.45 0.03 24 0.01 2.1 6
1682 2.1 0.14 10 0.06 2.2 9

Data from Arrighi et al. (2001)

W&W Ht calculated with the method of Wilson and Walker 1987
a
From Scandone et al. (2008)
b
From Macedonio et al. (2008)
c
Recalculated from Cioni et al. (2008) using a density of 1,200 kg/m3 (Cioni et al. 2003)

most probable the mid value (5 days). The duration of
the simulation was longer than the eruption duration in
order to give sufficient time for airborne ash to deposit
or leave the computational domain.
& The TGSD was compiled by using available field data of
the AD 1906 eruption (Cioni et al. 2008), integrated
with fine ash data from distal lacustrine and marine
cores (Fig. 2). In order to consider uncertainty and
variability related to TGSD, the parameters characteriz-
ing the distribution were sampled in a larger range as
explained below. We described the TGSD as a bi-
Gaussian distribution in Φ-units (where d02−Φ is the
particle diameter in millimeters), i.e. the sum of two
Gaussian distributions having means Φm1 and Φm2 and
variances σ1 and σ2. The mean Φm1 was sampled in the
Φ-interval −4.5 to −2.5 (from 22.6 to 5.6 mm) using the
stratified sampling method and assuming a Beta distri-
bution centred in the mid-range, whereas for Φm2 the
relation Φm2 0Φm1−4 was assumed, implying a variation
in Φm2 from −0.5 to 1.5 in the Φ-interval, that is, from

Fig. 1 Digital elevation model

(courtesy of M.T. Pareschi) of
the Mediterranean area and
parts of North Africa and
Central-Eastern Europe. Solid
lines indicate the busiest aerial
corridors over the study area
(source: www.drylabs.com/rou-
te2gmaps/). The annual number
of passengers (in millions) is
also indicated. The white trian-
gle indicates the Somma-
Vesuvius volcano. White dots
indicate some of the major air-
ports in the Central Mediterra-
nean and surrounding area
Bull Volcanol (2012) 74:2205–2218
1.4 mm to 350 μm (Fig. 1 and Table 2). The variances
(expressed in Φ-units) were sampled in the range 2 to 3.
Particle densities were sampled in the interval 1,400 to
1,800 kg/m3 for particles having Φ0−1 and in the inter-
val 2,600 to 2,800 kg/m3 for particles having Φ04,
based on measured densities of AD 1906 deposit par-
ticles. For the rest of particle sizes, density was assumed
constant for Φ<−2 and Φ>4 and interpolated linearly in
the interval −1 to 4. Particle sphericity was assumed to
vary between 0.90 and 0.94 (Table 2). Since we are more
interested in the far-range dispersal rather than proximal
fallout, simulations were performed considering five
particle classes (bins) of 10, 50, 100 and 200 μm, and
a class representative of aggregates.
& Only particle aggregation within the eruption column is
considered (not during transport). This allows us mod-
elling the aggregation phenomenon in a simple paramet-
ric way by modifying the original TGSD (similarly to
Cornell et al. 1983). Ash aggregation during violent
Strombolian eruptions at SV is not well constrained
and there are not enough data and studies to propose a
quantitatively rigorous aggregation model. We estimated
the relevant parameters on the basis of other studies that
quantified ash aggregation for different eruptions (e.g.
Cornell et al. 1983; Costa et al. 2010; Folch and Sulpizio
2010, Folch 2012) and considered a large range of
values in order to account for the uncertainty and vari-
ability (further studies are the subject of ongoing re-
search). We assume that a variable fraction of 10 to
50 % of fine particles (Φ >2) falls as aggregates of
diameter 250 μm and density in the range 100 to
700 kg/m3. The fraction of fine ash that aggregates and
Fig. 2 Grain size distribution used as an input parameter for numerical
simulations. Dashed vertical lines indicate the interval of random
sampling of coarse grain size mode (ϕm1) and fine grain size mode
(ϕm2) for the different numerical simulations
2209
the density of the aggregated particles are sampled ran-
domly within the assigned intervals.
& The source term (vertical distribution of mass in the
eruption column) is given by a Suzuki distribution
(Suzuki 1983; Pfeiffer et al. 2005) with the param-
eter A in the range 3 to 5 (we fixed the parameter λ
to 1). The height of the eruption column varies
between 3 and 9 km, following also a Beta PDF
peaked at 6 km.
& The total erupted mass ranges between 1×1011 and 5×
1011 kg assuming a Beta PDF centred in the mid-range
(the mean value of 2.5×1011 kg is consistent with the
erupted mass estimated by Macedonio et al. 2008 for the
AD 1944 eruption). For each run, the averaged mass
eruption rate is obtained dividing the total erupted mass
by the duration of the eruption.
& The computational domain spanned from 25° N to 40° N
in latitude and from 5° W to 25° E in longitude, with
horizontal resolution of 0.3°. The top of the computa-
tional domain was set at 12 km above the terrain, with a
uniform vertical discretization of 0.5 km (i.e. 25 vertical
layers). The model was configured using the Ganser
terminal velocity model (Ganser 1993) and the CMAQ
model parameterization for horizontal diffusion (Folch
et al. 2009).
Each of the 1,000 simulations corresponds to a possible
violent Strombolian eruption scenario. As an illustrative
example, Fig. 3 shows the temporal evolution of the ash
cloud for one particular run. It shows the simulated ash
column loads at different time slices for a single run, starting
on 12 April 2006 at 08.00 UTC and lasting for 105 h
(4.37 days). Hazard maps were generated considering hour-
ly outputs of all runs.
Generation of hazard maps
We constructed probabilistic hazard maps giving the proba-
bility of airborne ash concentration exceeding a certain
threshold at different flight levels. As in Folch and Sulpizio
(2010), we constrain our analysis to FL050 (nominal alti-
tude of 5,000 ft or ~1.5 km) and FL300 (nominal altitude of
30,000 ft or ~9.1 km) because these two levels are repre-
sentative of landing/take-off operations and jet cruise alti-
tude. We consider two concentration thresholds of 0.2 and
2 mg/m3 that were introduced in Europe during the Eyjaf-
jallajökull eruption, although the adoption of the thresholds
by ICAO worldwide is still under debate. We consider that
values of ash concentration above these thresholds at FL050
imply disruption of airports because the larger concentra-
tions block any landing/take-off operation, even if no ash
deposits on the ground impede airport operations. Analo-
gously, exceeding values at FL300 are assumed to imply
2210 Bull Volcanol (2012) 74:2205–2218

Table 2 Input parameters used

for numerical simulation runs Mean Minimum Maximum Distribution

Eruption starting time 1 2,920 Uniform

Eruption duration (days) 5 3 7 Beta
Total mass (×1011 kg) 2.5 1 5 Beta
Mean grain size coarse mode (Φ-unit) −1 −2 0 Beta
Mean grain size fine mode (Φ-unit) 3 2 4
Dispersion grain size (Φ-unit) 2 1 3 Beta
Density coarse mode (kgm−3) 1,600 1,400 1,800 Beta
Density fine mode (kgm−3) 2,700 2,600 2,800 Beta
Sphericity 0.92 0.9 0.94 Beta
% Aggregates 30 10 50 Beta
H (km) 6 3 9 Beta
Suzuki coefficient (A) 4 3 5 Beta

inoperability of the air traffic lines and aircraft re-routing. In
order to evaluate the influence of different characteristic
synoptic patterns occurring along the year, seasonal maps
for the same flight levels and ash concentrations were also
produced.
Probabilistic hazard maps do not contain information on
the time during which a threshold is exceeded at a given
location. However, this variable is of importance when
assessing disruption to aviation. For this reason, we also
compute the averaged duration of the disruption
(persistence), expressed as the ratio between the time over
Fig. 3 Simulated ash column loads at different times for a single run,
starting the 12 April 2006 at 08.00 UTC and lasting for 105 h
(4.37 days). Contours indicate a column load of 10 kg/m2. Assuming
a cloud thickness of 1 km, the contours would correspond to an
averaged cloud concentration of 10 mg/m3. Results at (1) 12 h, (2)
26 h, (3) 44 h, (4) 74 h and (5) 112 h after the start of the eruption. Note
the last contour is detached from the source because the simulation
lasts longer than the eruption duration in order to permit airborne ash to
settle or leave the computational domain
which the threshold is exceeded relative to the eruption
duration (i.e. persistence equal to 1 implies disruption dur-
ing the whole eruption duration). This allows the expected
intensity of the disruption to be estimated, along with the
impact in terms of number of routes (resulting in number of
passengers) potentially affected if the threshold is exceeded.
Results
Figure 4 shows the hazard maps for both thresholds of 0.2
and 2 mg/m3 at FL050 (nominal altitude of 5,000 ft) and
FL300 (nominal altitude of 30,000 ft). The map for FL050
and 0.2 mg/m3 threshold shows iso-probability contours.
The highest probability values (>80 %) are elongate to the
southeast. Lower probability contour lines are more circular
with a slight shift to the northeast (Fig. 4a). The same
behaviour is found for the 2 mg/m3 map (Fig. 4b), although
the affected areas are significantly smaller. Most of Southern
Italy lies within a very high probability area (practically
100 %) for the concentration threshold of 0.2 mg/m3, where-
as most of the Balkans, Greece and parts of Turkey and
North Africa are within the 60–70 % probability areas
(Fig. 4a). The 10 % probability curve exceeds the compu-
tational domain, covering an area of more than
249,000 km2. The map for FL050 and 2 mg/m3 threshold
shows a similar probability distribution but areas affected
are smaller, with Southern Italy enclosed within the 80 %
probability area and the main part of the Balkans and Greece
within the 40 % probability area (Fig. 4b). In this case, the
10 % probability curve covers an area of about 98,000 km2.
Concerning FL300, the probability curves are elongate to
the East for both ash concentration thresholds (Fig. 4c and
d), reflecting the different characteristic wind directions and
intensities at higher atmospheric levels at this latitude (Costa
Bull Volcanol (2012) 74:2205–2218
et al. 2009). For the threshold of 0.2 mg/m3, the highest
probability curves at FL300 (>80 %) form an elongate lens
between Apulia and Albania (Fig. 4c). The 50 % probability
curve extends more than 880 km downwind, covering most of
the Balkans, Romania and West-Central Turkey down to Crete
(more than 48,700 km2; Fig. 4c). The 10 % FL300 probability
curve exceeds the computational domain, covering an area of
more than 181,000 km2 (Fig. 4c). The 2 mg/m3, FL300 thresh-
old map shows much smaller areas are affected, and there is a
lower probability of occurrence (Fig. 4d). The highest proba-
bility is 60–70 % and affects a narrow path between SV and
Apulia (Fig. 3d). The 10 % probability covers an area of about
13,700 km2.
Figure 5 shows maps of persistence for both thresholds
and flight levels. It is worth noting how Southern Italy and
the Campanian region are characterized by persistence of
about 0.5 and 0.4 for the thresholds of 0.2 and 2 mg/m3,
respectively. A persistence value of 0.2 equates to disruption
of ~24 h during a 5-day eruption. For both threshold values
Fig. 4 Probabilistic hazard maps at two flight levels (FL050 and FL300) and for two concentration thresholds (0.2 and 2 mg/m3). Contours give
the probability (in %) to exceed the threshold at any time during a violent Strombolian eruption at SV
2211
the shapes of the iso-persistence curves are more circular
that those of the corresponding probability curves (Fig. 4).
For FL300, the values of persistence are lower than for the
FL50 case, indicating the limited influence of violent Strom-
bolian eruptions on higher FLs in the investigated area.
In order to investigate the seasonal variability of ash
dispersal, we constructed seasonal probability maps for both
FLs using the of 0.2 mg/m3 threshold only (Figs. 6 and 7).
For FL050 the highest probability contours are elongate to
the Southeast, except for the winter map, which shows a
general elongation towards East (Fig. 6). It is worth noting
that the 80–100 % probability contours cover a wide area
that includes a large part of Greece, except for the autumn
map that contains a smaller area covering the Albania–
Greece border (Fig. 6). In all cases, the lower probability
areas exceed the computational domain. The seasonal maps
for the FL300 are all stretched to the East, with narrow high
probability areas (80 %) elongated through Southern Italy,
Albania, and part of Greece (Fig. 7). The autumn map shows
2212
Fig. 5 Persistence of the disruption at two flight levels (FL050 and
FL300) and for two concentration thresholds (0.2 and 2 mg/m3).
Contours give the averaged disruption time as a fraction of the duration
of the eruption. For example, a value of 0.5 at a given point means that,
lower values of probability (Fig. 7a). Similar to the FL50
case, the low probability areas exceed the computational
domain (Fig. 7).
Figure 7a shows the probability of airport disruption
(here assumed to occur when the 2 mg/m3 threshold is
exceeded at FL050) together with the location of the main
international airports of the area. The three colours indicate
high (50–100 %), moderate (10–50 %) and low (<10 %)
probabilities of exceeding the 2 mg/m3 threshold during a
SV violent Strombolian eruption. Most of the airports of
Southern Italy and the Balkans lie within the high probabil-
ity curve, while almost all the Italian, Greek, Central and
Eastern Europe and part of the North African airports fall
within the moderate probability curve (Fig. 8a). As
expected, the persistence map for the 2 mg/m3 threshold
(FL050, Fig. 8b), shows Naples and Bari are the most
exposed airports (0.4–1 and 0.3–0.4 intervals of persistence,
Fig. 8b), while other airports of Southern Italy along with
Tirana, Dubrovnik and Podgorica are within the 0.2–0.3
Bull Volcanol (2012) 74:2205–2218
on average, the threshold is exceeded during 50 % of the eruption
duration (i.e. 2 days for an eruption lasting 4 days, 3 days for an
eruption of 6 days etc.)
interval of persistence. The Rome Fiumicino airport, an
international hub, is within the 0.15–0.2 interval of persis-
tence, and other important international airports (e.g. Milan
Malpensa, Munich) are within 0.1–0.15 (Fig. 8b). A persis-
tence value of 0.2 means equates to disruption of ~24 h
during a 5-day eruption. Finally, the 2 mg/m3 exposure map
for FL300 shows how there are no areas with probability
exceeding 50 %, which confirms ash emission from violent
Strombolian eruptions only have a minor influence on high
FLs (Fig. 9a). In this case, most persistence values are <0.3
(Fig. 9b).
Discussion and conclusions
Selection of the eruption scenario
The definition of the expected eruptive scenario is crucial
for constructing probabilistic hazard maps. In the case of
Bull Volcanol (2012) 74:2205–2218
Fig. 6 Seasonal influence. Probabilistic hazard maps at FL050 for a concentration threshold of 0.2 mg/m3
SV, the range of eruptive scenarios spans from a quiet
effusive event to a Plinian one due to the wide range of
eruption types and intensities that have characterized the
past activity of the volcano. Concerning the expected impact
of future eruptions on air traffic and airport operations, the
range of the expected explosive activity of SV is constrained
by the ranking of occurrence probability as defined by Neri
et al. (2008). Plinian eruptions have the lowest probability
(4 %), followed by Subplinian I (17 %), Subplinian II
(28 %) and violent Strombolian (38 %; Neri et al. 2008).
The high-intensity scenario has been investigated in the
previous work of Folch and Sulpizio (2010), which accounts
for a large explosive eruption scenario (Plinian to Subpli-
nian I). The short-to-medium range impact of fallout from
the other scenarios (Subplinian II and violent Strombolian)
was analysed by Macedonio et al. (2008), but the far-range
impact on civil aviation has never been considered. Since
violent Strombolian events are the most probable, an accu-
rate assessment of the impact on civil aviation of such
eruptions at SV is of particular interest, especially after the
2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption, which showed that medium-
2213
to-low intensity eruptions can have a substantial impact on
aviation (Schumann et al. 2010; Sigmundsson et al. 2010;
Rose and Durant 2011; Langmann et al. 2011; Dellino et al.
2012). The probabilistic assessment of this type of eruptive
scenario is challenging both from a volcanological and a
numerical point of view. In contrast to Plinian to Subplinian
I eruptions that are typically discrete and relatively short
(hours) high-intensity climactic events, violent Strombolian
eruptions are generally low to intermediate in intensity and
span a few days to weeks and months of continuous ash
emission (Cioni et al. 2008). The eruptive parameters can
vary greatly during an eruption and from one eruption to
another, as testified by past events at SV (Table 1). This
makes it quite difficult to set specific volcanological inputs
for a violent Strombolian scenario. For these reasons we
applied a statistical approach in selecting input parameters,
which were sampled from a range of typical values (not like
the fixed single values considered by Folch and Sulpizio
2010). Furthermore, the long duration of the eruptions and
the far-range analysis demands numerical simulations and
larger computational resources.
2214
Fig. 7 Seasonal influence. Probabilistic hazard maps at FL300 for a concentration threshold of 0.2 mg/m3
Impacts at FL050
The probability maps for the FL050 have relevance for
aviation procedures related to landing and take-off opera-
tions. We assume that, irrespective of the ground load of
ash, if the FL050 ash concentration thresholds are exceeded
then airport operations are disrupted. From Fig. 3 it is
evident how, in case of a future violent Strombolian eruption
at SV, a large proportion of the airports in Italy and Balkans
have medium to high probabilities of being disrupted. Along
with the probability to exceed the thresholds, it is important
to note how the persistence time (Fig. 4a) reaches 30–40 %
of the eruption duration over a large area that covers south-
ern Italy, Balkans, Albania and Greece. Our results suggest
that, in case of an eruption lasting 7 days, that area would
experience airport disruptions lasting between 50 and 67 h
on average.
The no-fly condition (threshold of 2 mg/m3) has a very
high probability to occur in a large part of Southern Italy,
Albania and Greece (Fig. 4b). Significant probability (10–
20 %) includes large parts of Italy, and parts of Central and
Bull Volcanol (2012) 74:2205–2218
Eastern Europe, Turkey and North Africa. Some critical
airports (e.g. Naples, Bari, Catania, Saloniki; Fig. 8a) have
a high probability (>50 %) of being disrupted. These air-
ports account for a total passenger traffic of 24 million per
year, with a daily average of 66,000 passengers (Folch and
Sulpizio, 2010). The same airports fall within the 0.2–0.3
area of persistence, which means that, for an eruption lasting
7 days, there is a high probability they will be disrupted for
more than 1–2 days. If we consider the medium probability
area (between 10 and 50 %, yellow area in Fig. 8a), the
number of airports potentially affected triples, and includes
the international hubs of Rome Fiumicino, Athens and
Wien, through which more than 64 million people pass each
year (daily mean rate of 172,000 passengers; Folch and
Sulpizio 2010).
Impacts on FL300
The probability maps for FL300 are relevant for air traffic
corridors and are linked to in-flight aircraft operations, acti-
vation of enhanced procedures (threshold of 0.2 mg/m3) and
Bull Volcanol (2012) 74:2205–2218
Fig. 8 Summary of results at FL050. a Probability of airport disrup-
tion. Only three contours are shown, indicating very high (>50 %),
moderate to high (between 10 and 50 %) and moderate to low (<10 %)
probability zones; b averaged disruption time as a fraction of the mean
duration of the eruption. Main international airports are indicated using
the World Airport Code (WAC): Athens (ATH), Ajaccio (AJA), Bari
(BRI), Bastia (BIA), Bratislava (BTS), Brindisi (BDS), Bucharest
(OPT), Budapest (BUD), Beograd (BEG), Cagliari (CAG), Catania
re-routing. Figure 3 shows that the aerial corridors passing
over Southern Italy, South Balkans, Greece and Northern
Turkey have medium–high probability of being affected by
ash concentrations exceeding 0.2 mg/m3. Most of Italy,
Central–Eastern Europe, Turkey, part of North Africa and
the Middle East are within the >10 % probability contours.
Beside the probability of exceeding the ash concentration
threshold, it is important to note that the persistence time
(Fig. 5c) reaches 10–15 % of the eruption duration in a large
area that extends from the Western Mediterranean to Central
Turkey, including Italy, part of Central Europe and part of
Fig. 9 Summary of results at FL300. a Probability of disruption of
aerial corridors. Only three contours are shown, indicating very high
(>50 %), moderate to high (between 10 and 50 %) and moderate to low
2215
(CTA), Cluj (CLJ), Dubrovnik (DBV), Iraklion (HER), Istanbul (IST),
La Valetta (MLA), Lamezia Terme (SUF), Ljubljana (LJU), Milano
Malpensa (MXP), Monastir (MIR), Munich (MUC), Napoli (NAP),
Olbia (OLB), Palermo (PMO), Pisa (PSA), Podgorica (TGD), Reggio
Calabria (REG), Rome Fiumicino (FCO), Saloniki (SKG), Sarajevo
(SJJ), Skopje (SKP), Sophia (SOF), Split (SPU), Tirana (TIA), Tripoli
(TIP), Tunis (TUN), Venezia (VCE), Wien (VIE), Zagrab (ZAG) and
Zurich (ZRH)
North Africa. It means that, in case of an eruption lasting
7 days, air traffic corridors within that area would be affect-
ed for an average period between 17 and 25 h. Persistence
time of more than 25 % of eruption duration affects only
Southern Italy, causing operational problems only for do-
mestic aerial corridors (more than 42 h for a 7-day eruption).
The no-fly condition (threshold of 2 mg/m3) has a limited
impact on air traffic corridors, with probability in excess of
10 % encompassing only Southern Italy, Central-Southern
Balkans and Northern Greece (Fig. 4). Also persistence is
limited, with values between 10 and 15 % that affect only
(<10 %) probability zones; b averaged disruption time as a fraction of
the mean duration of the eruption. The main aerial corridors from
Fig. 1 are superimposed on the maps
2216
Southern Italy and the 1 % area that encompasses Central–
Southern Italy, the Balkans and Northern Greece (Fig. 5d).
Medium–low persistence will only cause the disruption of
domestic aerial corridors over Southern Italy, allowing the
long-range international flights to reroute their tracks over
the Western Mediterranean or Balkans. Figure 7 shows that
disruption of air traffic corridors over a large area including
Balkans and Greece would be limited to a few hours, and
may cause some disturbance to air traffic over the Central
Mediterranean and Eastern Europe. These results help as-
sess the potential impacts of a violent Strombolian eruption
at SV to civil aviation over the Central Mediterranean area
and East Europe. Our results demonstrate that even low-
intensity explosive eruptions from SV can have long-range
consequences.
Comparison with results from a large intensity, short
eruption
Folch and Sulpizio (2010) carried out a study on air traffic
impact from a Subplinian I type eruption at SV. Although
the concentration thresholds and the modelling assumptions
are different to those of the present study, we compare the
impact on the same geographical area of a moderate long-
lasting eruption and a large, short eruption. It is evident that
if we scale the thresholds of the Subplinian I type eruption to
those adopted here, the impacts of the two scenarios differ
by some 10 % in terms of probability. The most striking
difference is the impact of the two eruption scenarios on
FL300, with the Subplinian I type having a greater proba-
bility of affecting aerial corridors than the violent Strombo-
lian one. This is not surprising, due to the higher column and
larger erupted mass modelled in the first case. Also the areas
affected by the same probability in FL050 maps are quite
different, although less than in the FL300 case. This means
that take-off and landing procedures would be limited or
prevented for a larger number of airports in case of a Sub-
plinian I type eruption. Nevertheless, it is worth noting that
if we use our FL050 results as a proxy of airport operation
disruption, the number of affected airports and their geo-
graphical distribution is comparable with ground load maps
of the Subplinian I type scenario (1 kg/m2 map; Folch and
Sulpizio 2010). This means that take-off and landing proce-
dures would be limited or impossible at the same airports
that would be closed during a large-intensity eruption. De-
spite the larger area potentially affected by ash dispersal
during a Subplinian I type eruption with respect to the
violent Strombolian scenario, the persistence of ash might
be longer in the case of the less-intense eruption when we
take into consideration the transit times of the ash clouds,
which are limited to a few hours for the Subplinian I erup-
tion. This is not the case for the violent Strombolian scenar-
io, in which persistence can be in the order of several hours
Bull Volcanol (2012) 74:2205–2218
to few days. It follows that high-intensity eruptions at SV
can provoke disruption to air traffic over larger areas but for
shorter times than lower intensity, long-lasting eruptions.
Acknowledgements AF is grateful to the Spanish “Ramón y Cajal”
scientific program. AF and CS have been partially funded by the
Spanish research project ATMOST (CGL2009-10244) and the CYTED
Thematic Network CENIZA (410RT0392). RS carried out this work
under the HPC-Europa ++ project (RII3-CT-2003-506079), with the
support of the European Community—Research Infrastructure Action
under the FP6 “Structuring the European Research area” Programme.
RS also acknowledge funding from IUGG (project “Predicting volca-
nic ash dispersal combining field, experimental and meteorological
data into super-computational numerical simulations” to RS), which
partially supported the ash sample collection and analysis. Simulations
have been done at the BSC-CNS supercomputing facilities (Barcelona,
Spain) using the MareNostrum supercomputer. We thank the construc-
tive reviews of Costanza Bonadonna and an anonymous reviewer.
Victoria Smith kindly revised the English text. Malo e lelei!
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