Period quarter t Yt Yt-1 Yt-2 Yt-3 Yt-4 Yt - Yt-1 Yt-1 - Yt-2

1958 Q1 1 5965
1958 Q2 2 8460 5965
1958 Q3 3 8323 8460 5965
1
1958 Q4 4 6333 8323 8460 5965
1959 Q1 5 5675 6333 8323 8460 5965 -658 -1990
1959 Q2 6 10090 5675 6333 8323 8460 4415 -658
1959 Q3 7 9035 10090 5675 6333 8323 -1055 4415
2
1959 Q4 8 6976 9035 10090 5675 6333 -2059 -1055
1960 Q1 9 6459 6976 9035 10090 5675 -517 -2059
1960 Q2 10 10896 6459 6976 9035 10090 4437 -517
1960 Q3 11 9978 10896 6459 6976 9035 -918 4437
3
1960 Q4 12 7466 9978 10896 6459 6976 -2512 -918
1961 Q1 13 7199 7466 9978 10896 6459 -267 -2512
1961 Q2 14 10977 7199 7466 9978 10896 3778 -267
1961 Q3 15 9412 10977 7199 7466 9978 -1565 3778
4
1961 Q4 16 6341 9412 10977 7199 7466 -3071 -1565
1962 Q1 17 7784 6341 9412 10977 7199 1443 -3071
1962 Q2 18 11911 7784 6341 9412 10977 4127 1443
1962 Q3 19 10079 11911 7784 6341 9412 -1832 4127
5
1962 Q4 20 7721 10079 11911 7784 6341 -2358 -1832
1963 Q1 21 8197 7721 10079 11911 7784 476 -2358
1963 Q2 22 12038 8197 7721 10079 11911 3841 476
1963 Q3 23 11963 12038 8197 7721 10079 -75 3841
6
1963 Q4 24 8033 11963 12038 8197 7721 -3930 -75
1964 Q1 25 8618 8033 11963 12038 8197 585 -3930
1964 Q2 26 13625 8618 8033 11963 12038 5007 585
1964 Q3 27 11734 13625 8618 8033 11963 -1891 5007
7
1964 Q4 28 8895 11734 13625 8618 8033 -2839 -1891
1965 Q1 29 8727 8895 11734 13625 8618 -168 -2839
1965 Q2 30 13974 8727 8895 11734 13625 5247 -168
1965 Q3 31 12583 13974 8727 8895 11734 -1391 5247
8
1965 Q4 32 9525 12583 13974 8727 8895 -3058 -1391
1966 Q1 33 9662 9525 12583 13974 8727 137 -3058
1966 Q2 34 15490 9662 9525 12583 13974 5828 137
1966 Q3 35 13839 15490 9662 9525 12583 -1651 5828
9
1966 Q4 36 10047 13839 15490 9662 9525 -3792 -1651
1967 Q1 37 9788 10047 13839 15490 9662 -259 -3792
1967 Q2 38 14978 9788 10047 13839 15490 5190 -259
1967 Q3 39 13045 14978 9788 10047 13839 -1933 5190
10 1967 Q4 40 9489 13045 14978 9788 10047 -3556 -1933
1968 Q1 41 8741 9489 13045 14978 9788 -748 -3556
1968 Q2 42 13149 8741 9489 13045 14978 4408 -748
1968 Q3 43 14106 13149 8741 9489 13045 957 4408
11
11 1968 Q4 44 9998 14106 13149 8741 9489 -4108 957
1969 Q1 45 10034 9998 14106 13149 8741 36 -4108
1969 Q2 46 15081 10034 9998 14106 13149 5047 36
1969 Q3 47 13266 15081 10034 9998 14106 -1815 5047
12
1969 Q4 48 9997 13266 15081 10034 9998 -3269 -1815
1970 Q1 49 9027 9997 13266 15081 10034 -970 -3269
1970 Q2 50 14324 9027 9997 13266 15081 5297 -970
1970 Q3 51 13149 14324 9027 9997 13266 -1175 5297
13
1970 Q4 52 11209 13149 14324 9027 9997 -1940 -1175
1971 Q1 53 10332 11209 13149 14324 9027 -877 -1940
1971 Q2 54 15354 10332 11209 13149 14324 5022 -877
1971 Q3 55 13800 15354 10332 11209 13149 -1554 5022
14
1971 Q4 56 11786 13800 15354 10332 11209 -2014 -1554
1972 Q1 57 10550 11786 13800 15354 10332 -1236 -2014
1972 Q2 58 16114 10550 11786 13800 15354 5564 -1236
15 1972 Q3 59 13255 16114 10550 11786 13800 -2859 5564
1972 Q4 60 11403 13255 16114 10550 11786 -1852 -2859
Yt-2 - Yt-3 Yt-3 - Yt-4 Ŷt+1 et |et| et² |et|/Yt (%) et/Yt (%)

-137 2495
-1990 -137 8387.5 1702.5 1702.5 2898506.3 17% 17%
-658 -1990 8730.5 304.5 304.5 92720.25 3% 3%
4415 -658 6511 465 465 216225 7% 7%
-1055 4415 5835.75 623.25 623.25 388440.56 10% 10%
-2059 -1055 10286 610 610 372100 6% 6%
-517 -2059 9236.5 741.5 741.5 549822.25 7% 7%
4437 -517 7211.75 254.25 254.25 64643.063 3% 3%
-918 4437 6581.5 617.5 617.5 381306.25 9% 9%
-2512 -918 11081 -104 104 10816 1% -1%
-267 -2512 9998.25 -586.25 586.25 343689.06 6% -6%
3778 -267 7324.5 -983.5 983.5 967272.25 16% -16%
-1565 3778 6917.75 866.25 866.25 750389.06 11% 11%
-3071 -1565 11123.25 787.75 787.75 620550.06 7% 7%
1443 -3071 9645.5 433.5 433.5 187922.25 4% 4%
4127 1443 6507.75 1213.25 1213.25 1471975.6 16% 16%
-1832 4127 8129 68 68 4624 1% 1%
-2358 -1832 12014.25 23.75 23.75 564.0625 0% 0%
476 -2358 10110.75 1852.25 1852.25 3430830.1 15% 15%
3841 476 8192 -159 159 25281 2% -2%
-75 3841 8275 343 343 117649 4% 4%
-3930 -75 12143.25 1481.75 1481.75 2195583.1 11% 11%
585 -3930 12359.75 -625.75 625.75 391563.06 5% -5%
5007 585 7975.75 919.25 919.25 845020.56 10% 10%
-1891 5007 8833.5 -106.5 106.5 11342.25 1% -1%
-2839 -1891 13652.25 321.75 321.75 103523.06 2% 2%
-168 -2839 11821.25 761.75 761.75 580263.06 6% 6%
5247 -168 9107.25 417.75 417.75 174515.06 4% 4%
-1391 5247 8884.5 777.5 777.5 604506.25 8% 8%
-3058 -1391 14207.75 1282.25 1282.25 1644165.1 8% 8%
137 -3058 12962 877 877 769129 6% 6%
5828 137 9839 208 208 43264 2% 2%
-1651 5828 9792.5 -4.5 4.5 20.25 0% 0%
-3792 -1651 15521.5 -543.5 543.5 295392.25 4% -4%
-259 -3792 13711 -666 666 443556 5% -5%
5190 -259 9848.5 -359.5 359.5 129240.25 4% -4%
-1933 5190 9648.5 -907.5 907.5 823556.25 10% -10%
-3556 -1933 14716.25 -1567.25 1567.25 2456272.6 12% -12%
-748 -3556 12587.75 1518.25 1518.25 2305083.1 11% 11%
 4408 -748 9754.25 243.75 243.75 59414.063 2% 2%
957 4408 8868.25 1165.75 1165.75 1358973.1 12% 12%
-4108 957 13472.25 1608.75 1608.75 2588076.6 11% 11%
36 -4108 14589 -1323 1323 1750329 10% -10%
5047 36 9788 209 209 43681 2% 2%
-1815 5047 10033.75 -1006.75 1006.75 1013545.6 11% -11%
-3269 -1815 14829.25 -505.25 505.25 255277.56 4% -4%
-970 -3269 13076.75 72.25 72.25 5220.0625 1% 1%
5297 -970 9967.75 1241.25 1241.25 1540701.6 11% 11%
-1175 5297 9330 1002 1002 1004004 10% 10%
-1940 -1175 14650.25 703.75 703.75 495264.06 5% 5%
-877 -1940 13406.5 393.5 393.5 154842.25 3% 3%
5022 -877 11371.75 414.25 414.25 171603.06 4% 4%
-1554 5022 10476.25 73.75 73.75 5439.0625 1% 1%
-2014 -1554 15408.5 705.5 705.5 497730.25 4% 4%
-1236 -2014 13990 -735 735 540225 6% -6%
5564 -1236 11649.75 -246.75 246.75 60885.563 2% -2%
ne = 55 37735 38256533 3.518780781 155%
686.0909 695573.32 0.063977832 0.028178
MAD MSE MAPE MPE