H31

DEPLETION OF MANGROVE ECOSYSTEM DUE TO CLIMATE

CHANGE: A CASE STUDY OF NORTH ANDAMAN, INDIA

Subha Chakraborty1, Debaleena Majumdar2, Debajit Datta2 & Swati Saha1

1
Department of Architecture, Town and Regional Planning, IIEST, Shibpur, India
2
Department of Geography, Jadavpur University, Kolkata, India
email: debajit.geo@gmail.com

The coastal ecosystem are threatened with destruction by natural forcing (e.g. climate
change, global warming, sea level rise) coupled with various anthropogenic disturbances.
Mangroves are highly important natural resources of coastal regions which is vital for coastal
livelihood and works as natural guard from various natural phenomenons, like storms, tsunami
etc. Although, mangroves have the resilience capacity to adopt climate change and sea level
rise. Rapid climate change influences the longitudinal expansion with alteration of species
composition which will forced towards depletion of spatial coverage. This present investigation
focuses on the impact of climatic variables (2010-2050) on mangrove suitability using multi-
criteria decision making techniques. Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) projected
Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM1-M, RCP scenario 6) based climatic data and
projected population data plays the major roles in this analysis. The result shows that high
decrease of precipitation (14%), increase of temperature (1%) and population growth (10%)
has significant impact on mangrove depletion. However, continuous increase of sea surface
height (1.5mm observed during 1980-2009) and seismic events with frequent storm surges are
the key reason of quick depletion of this ecosystem. Thereafter, this study conclude that,
climate changes are one of the key triggering factor of mangrove deputation in North and
Middle Andaman. Simultaneously, population growth and encroachment of forest land are the
major threats in the region. A sustainable development planning approach is necessary to
increase the resilience capacity of these coastal ecosystem.

Keywords: Climate change, Mangrove suitability study, Multi-criteria decision making

techniques, Norwegian earth system model, Representative concentration pathways

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