Journal of the Operational Research Society (2005) 56, 799–803 r 2005 Operational Research Society Ltd.

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Dynamic model for a defective production system

with Poka-Yoke
J-C Tsou* and J-M Chen
National Central University, Jhongli, Taiwan
This paper proposes a dynamic model for a defective production system with Poka-Yoke. Poka-Yoke is a Japanese
phrase which means mistake-proofing. The technique of Poka-Yoke has been diversely applied in modern production
systems. In this study, we evaluate the total cost of a defective production system with Poka-Yoke. We also use a
practical case in automotive industry to verify the proposed model. The case study reveals that Poka-Yoke is a cost-
effective mechanism that generates satisfactory return of a defective production system, the effect of which depends on
the investment cost of Poka-Yoke.
Journal of the Operational Research Society (2005) 56, 799–803. doi:10.1057/palgrave.jors.2601877
Published online 27 October 2004

Keywords: production; quality; Poka-Yoke

Introduction model to determine the optimal number of learning

Product quality is a major concern in today’s modern
production system. Poor quality products decrease customer
satisfaction, reduce efficiency, and increase the cost of
business operation. It is important to dig out the root
causes and eliminate the variance in the production line.
The relationship between quality and economics of
production has been diversely studied over the past decade.
Porteus1 is one of the earliest researchers who developed a
mathematical model to characterize the optimal investment
in setup cost reduction and quality improvement. Rosenblatt
and Lee2 formulated and analysed a similar model that
considers investment in process improvements. In their
subsequent paper, Lee and Rosenblatt3 considered the use of
process inspection during the production run so that the
shift to out-of-control state can be detected and restoration
made earlier. Tapiero4 linked optimal quality inspection
policies and the resulting improvements in manufacturing
costs. Fine5 used a stochastic dynamic programming model
to characterize optimal inspection policies, and added the
quality-based learning effects in the model. Fine and
Porteus6 refined Porteus’ original work to allow smaller
investments over time with potential process improvement of
random magnitude. Chand7 validated Porteus’ model when
learning effect is present in setups and process quality. In a
series of papers, Cheng8,9 included the production process
reliability into a classic economic order quantity model.
Hong et al10 established the relationship between process
quality and investment. Ng and Hui11 developed a cost
*Correspondence: J-C Tsou, Institute of Industrial Management, National
Central University, Jhongli, Taiwan.
E-mail: jtsou@ford.com
actions to be taken and the optimal action limit. The model
offers insight into the tradeoff of cost of quality and the cost
of prevention. Banker et al12 developed formal models
of oligopolistic competition to investigate whether equili-
brium level of quality increases as competition intensifies.
Krishnan et al13 examined the relationship between life-cycle
productivity and conformance quality in software products.
Salameh and Jaber14 considered a special production/
inventory situation where items, received or produced, are
of imperfect quality. Ganeshan et al15 brought Taguchi’s
cost of poor quality into the economic production quantity
model, and linked lot-size determination to the loss-based
quality accounting system.
Poka-Yoke (means mistake-proofing) technique is devel-
oped by Dr Shigeo Shingo by 1961, who also developed the
Toyota Production System (TPS) and Just-In-Time (JIT)
production system. Poka-Yoke uses devices on process
equipment to prevent the special causes that result in defects,
or to inexpensively inspect each item that is produced to
determine whether it is acceptable or defective. Poka-Yoke-
designed manufacturing device is one of the bases of Dr
Shigeo Shingo’s Zero Quality Control (ZQC) concept which
means that the defect rate in a production system is zero.
Poka-Yoke design can dramatically decrease the risk of
producing defectives again.16
In this paper, we study the effect of Poka-Yoke on the
economics of production system. We make two significant
contributions to the field. First, this is probably the first
research work that considers the effect of Poka-Yoke
activities on the economics of a defective production system.
This paper analyses the cost of poor quality and evaluates
the return of Poka-Yoke. Second, we develop a dynamic
800 Journal of the Operational Research Society Vol. 56, No. 7

model for the defective production system with Poka-Yoke. cost of unit product.
To the best of our knowledge, this is also the first work using
a practical case to analyse the cost of Poka-Yoke in a X
N
Holding cost ¼ h½Gi1 þ Qi  di  ð2Þ
production system. i¼1
In the next section, we will introduce our dynamic model
and evaluate the effect of Poka-Yoke. A practical case in The second term in the equation is the holding cost. The
automotive industry will then be used to verify our model, holding cost in the production line is the summation of the
and the sensitivity analysis of our model will be carried out. holding cost of the inventory in the N period. In Equation
Conclusion is given in the last section. (2), Gi1 is the inventory carried from the previous period. Qi
is the production lot size in period i and di is the demand.
[Gi1 þ Qidi] is the inventory in period i and
The model h[Gi1 þ Qidi] is the holding cost in period i. The third
term in our objective function is the setup cost:
We assume a defective production line without shortages
over N periods with production lot size Qi in period i. X
N
The primary goal of our model is to determine the Setup cost ¼ dðQi ÞS ð3Þ
minimum cost of this production system. The total cost, i¼1

TC(N, Ip, Qi) is the combination of the production cost, the where
holding cost, the setup cost, the poor quality cost and

the money invested on Poka-Yoke which is denoted 0 if Qi ¼ 0
dðQi Þ ¼
by Ip. This combination is made on the basis of the 1 if Qi 40
hypothesis of the traditional Economic Production
Quantity (EPQ) model. The total cost, TC(N, Ip, Qi), can Setup cost includes the cost to change the mould, the cost
be expressed as: to prepare the material, and the cost to adjust machines. In
our model, the setup cost is equal to the summation of the
TCðN; Ip ; Qi Þ ¼ Production cost þ Holding cost setup cost in every period. The fourth term is the poor
þ Setup cost þ Poor quality cost quality cost:
þ Poka-Yoke cost X
N
Poor quality cost ¼ Qi Cr DðIp Þ ð4Þ
The notation of our model is summarized as below. i¼1

In the beginning, we assume the production system to be

Notation defective. Without corrective activities, the production line
will continuously produce specific percentages of defective
D(Ip) probability of the process going out of control with products in the following period. In our model, the poor
investment Ip on Poka-Yoke quality cost is the summation of the poor quality cost in
q probability of the process going out of control with every period. In Equation (4), Qi is the production lot size in
zero investment on Poka-Yoke each period, Cr is the poor quality cost on each product and
P production cost of unit product D(Ip) is the probability of the process going out of control in
PY cost of Poka-Yoke action every period. D(Ip) is the function of Ip, the investment on
Ip investment on Poka-Yoke during the N period Poka-Yoke. The relation between D(Ip) and Ip can be
planning horizon. written as
Cr cost on poor quality per unit product 
S setup cost per period q if Ip ¼ 0
DðIp Þ ¼ ð5Þ
Qi production lot size in period i 0 if Ip ¼ PY
h holding cost per unit per period
Gi1 inventory carried from period i1 to i. Poka-Yoke cost ¼ Ip ð6Þ
di demand in period i
The fifth term in the objective function is the Poka-Yoke
Each term in our objective function has been defined below. cost. This is the money that we spend on Poka-Yoke
activities. In our model, Poka-Yoke has been proposed to
X
N
correct defects in the production system. The money we
Production cost ¼ Qi P ð1Þ
spend on Poka-Yoke is Ip, and Ip is a discrete choice of
i¼1
decision making. This alternative means Poka-Yoke is a
The first term in our model is the production cost. The lump sum investment but not a continuous investment. For
production cost during the N period production can be example, if we want to buy an inspecting machine, we cannot
expressed as the summation of the lot sizes and production buy only half of it, but the complete machine. In practice,
 J-C Tsou and J-M Chen—Defective production system with Poka-Yoke 801

there are many methods for improving the defective

production system. These actions can be Poka-Yoke,
6-sigma, or kaizen.
With the definition above, we can develop the dynamic
model of the total cost of a defective production system. This
is the objective function of our model:

P
N
Minimize TCðN; Ip ; Qi Þ ¼ Qi P
i¼1
P
N P
N
þ h½Gi1 þ Qi  di  þ dðQi ÞS
i¼1 i¼1
PN
þ Qi Cr DðIp Þ þ Ip
i¼1
Subject to Figure 1 CAD drawing of the front drive shaft.

Ip ¼ 0 or PY
Gi1 þ Qi  di X0
G0 ¼ GN ¼ 0
P; PY; Cr ; S; Qi and hX0


q if Ip ¼ 0
DðIp Þ ¼
0 if Ip ¼ PY


0 if Qi ¼ 0
dðQi Þ ¼ ð7Þ
1 if Qi 40 Figure 2 Flow chart of the manufacturing process of the front
drive shaft.
Terms on the right-hand side of the objective function
include production cost, holding cost, setup cost, poor
quality cost, and Poka-Yoke cost.
Further analysis has shown that the root cause of this
quality issue is the deformation of the welding fixture. The
A case study in the automotive industry bracket assemble-LH of the front drive shaft has a shifting
problem when assembled. This problem will make noise
In this section, we will use a real case in automotive industry
during driving. The fixture in the welding machine is getting
to verify our model. YAZAKI Industrial Co. is a key
loose. The fixture can be seen in Figure 3.
supplier for stamping parts in the automotive industry in
The defect rate of this quality issue is 20%. The cost on
Taiwan. In the market, there are many warranty claims of
each quality claim is 24 USD. This includes the material cost
YAZAKI’s front drive shaft. The unit production cost of the
and the labor cost. According to the research of production
front drive shaft is 12 USD per unit. There are 10 production
engineers, if the company takes Poka-Yoke, it will cost
periods every month. The monthly demand is 5000 units per
200 USD. The Poka-Yoke action in this quality issue is to
month. To simplify the calculation, we suppose the lot size in
add a stopper on the side of the checking gage. The stopper
every period is the same. The setup cost per production run
and the checking gage can be seen in Figure 4.
is 100 USD and the demand in each period is the same as the
Substituting the information above into our model, we
supply.
can compare the cost of involving Poka-Yoke or not. If we
The CAD drawing of the front drive shaft is shown in
do not improve the production system, the total cost in every
Figure 1. The manufacturing process of the front drive shaft
month would be:
can be divided into nine major steps. These include
assembling MER ASSY UP & MER ASSY LWR, welding
X
10 X
10
MER ASSY, BRKT ASSY MER EM, BRKT ASSY MER TCð10; 0; 500Þ ¼ 50012 þ h½0 þ 500  500
EMI, BRKT ASSY MER EMBR, HOOK & BRKT ASSY i¼1 i¼1
MERRM RM RH LH, assembling BRKT MER STF, X
10 X
10

checking, storing, painting, storing, checking and delivery. þ 1100 þ 5002420%

i¼1 i¼1
The flow chart of the manufacturing process of the front
drive shaft has been shown in Figure 2. þ 0 ¼ 85 000 USD
802 Journal of the Operational Research Society Vol. 56, No. 7

Poka-Yoke can reduce the total cost of production.

Otherwise, it is ineffective to apply Poka-Yoke.

Sensitivity analysis of the model

There are N þ 2 independent variables in our model: the
number of production runs, N, the cost of Poka-Yoke, Ip,
and lot sizes in every period, Qi, i ¼ 1, 2y, N. However, the
cost of Poka-Yoke, Ip has been limited to the value of 0 or
PY. In this section, we will conduct sensitivity analysis on
the independent variable, N. To simplify the problem, we
suppose the lot size in every period is the same. All
parameters in the previous numerical example will be
applied and the mathematical software, Mathematica 4.1,
Figure 3 Fixture of the welding machine. is employed to perform the numerical analysis.
As the number of period, N, changes from 5 to 20 and no
corrective action has been applied in the defective produc-
tion system, the total cost can be found by substituting
coefficients into Equation (7). The relationship between the
number of period, N, and the total cost, TC(N, 0), can been
drawn in Figure 5.
Figure 5 demonstrates the linear relationship between the
total cost and the number of production runs, N. This result
reflects that production cost is increasing with production
volume. Figure 6 presents the relationship between the total
cost and the number of production periods with Poka-Yoke
applied.
It can be seen that the total cost in Figure 6 is lower than
that in Figure 5. This is because Poka-Yoke has been applied
to the defective production system.

Summary and conclusion

Figure 4 Checking gage of the front drive shaft.
In this paper, we have analysed the effect of Poka-Yoke on
the cost of a defective production system. We considered a
If we improve this defective production system with Poka- defective production system and compared the cost with and
Yoke, the total cost in every month can be found as without Poka-Yoke. We also use a practical case in
X
10 X
10
TCð10; 200; 500Þ ¼ 50012 þ h½0 þ 500  500
i¼1 i¼1
160000
X
10 X
10
þ 1100 þ 500240% 140000
i¼1 i¼1
þ 200 ¼ 61 200 USD 120000
TC

100000
From the results above, the total cost for this defective
production system with Poka-Yoke is less than the system 80000
with no action. This special case validates the effect of Poka-
Yoke on the cost of a defective production system and the 60000
mathematical model.
Poka-Yoke can decrease the chances of defective products 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
to be made. However, there is a break-even value of q, which N
decides the cost effect of Poka-Yoke, and the value is equal Figure 5 Behaviour of the total cost to the lot size, N, without
P PN
to (PY)/( N i ¼ 1Qi  Cr). When q4(PY)/( i ¼ 1Qi  Cr), Poka-Yoke.

120000
100000
80000
TC
60000
8 10 12 14 16 18 20
N 174–179.
Figure 6 Relationship between the total cost and the number
of production periods with Poka-Yoke.
automotive industry to verify our model. Our findings reveal
that Poka-Yoke activities will affect the cost of a production
system, and the effect depends on the cost of Poka-Yoke and
the probability of the process going out of control. We also
found that the total cost of a defective production system is
increasing with the number of production runs. Future study
in this field can focus on the stochastic dynamic model of a
defective production system with Poka-Yoke.
Acknowledgements—We would like to thank the editor and anony-
mous referee for their valuable and constructive comments, which have
led to a significant improvement in this paper.
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Received November 2003;
accepted July 2004 after one revision