Professional Documents
Culture Documents
los riesgos
en los proyectos
Ing. (Esp) David A. Chigne T
PMP®, PMI-RMP®, PMI-ACP®
Capitulo 3 - Sesión 1
¿Qué herramientas tenemos para realizar el análisis
cuantitativo de riesgos?
Técnicas de recopilación y representación de datos
• Juicio de expertos: Se requiere para identificar los impactos
potenciales sobre el costo y el cronograma, para evaluar la Juicio de Expertos
probabilidad y definir las entradas tales como las distribuciones de
probabilidad a las herramientas.
• Intervienen en la interpretación de datos.
• Los expertos deben ser capaces de identificar las debilidades de las
herramientas, así como sus fortalezas. Los expertos pueden
determinar cuándo una determinada herramienta puede o no ser la
más adecuada.
OJO!, Que sean
expertos DE
VERDAD.
Profesor David A. Chigne T | PMP®, PMI-RMP®, PMI-ACP®
11.x.2
Herra.
11.x.1
Entradas
Actualización a los
Documentos del
Proyecto
Registro de
Riesgos
A.Ganancia de 20,000 $
B.Pérdida de 60,000 $
C.Ganancia de 100,000 $
D.Pérdida de 40,000 $
Análisis de Riesgos
¿Qué mas?
Profesor David A. Chigne T | PMP®, PMI-RMP®, PMI-ACP® Profesor Felix Soto | AACE - PSP
Que dice la RP 64R-11??
Registro de Riesgos
Profesor David A. Chigne T | PMP®, PMI-RMP®, PMI-ACP® Profesor Felix Soto | AACE - PSP
Que dice la RP 64R-11??
• Interpretar Resultados
• Grafico de distribución
Profesor David A. Chigne T | PMP®, PMI-RMP®, PMI-ACP® Profesor Felix Soto | AACE - PSP
Que dice la RP 64R-11??
• Interpretar Resultados
• Índice de Criticidad
Profesor David A. Chigne T | PMP®, PMI-RMP®, PMI-ACP® Profesor Felix Soto | AACE - PSP
GDR: Un enfoque integrador AACE - PMI
39R-06, Project Planning – As Applied in Engineering and Construction for Capital Projects
40R-08, Contingency Estimating – General Principles
41R-08, Risk Analysis and Contingency Determination Using Range Estimating
42R-08, Risk Analysis and Contingency Determination Using Parametric Estimating
43R-08, Risk Analysis and Contingency Determination Using Parametric Estimating – Example Models as Applied for the Process
Industries
44R-08, Risk Analysis and Contingency Determination Using Expected Value
57R-09, Integrated Cost and Schedule Risk Analysis Using Monte Carlo Simulation of a CPM Model
58R-10, Escalation Estimating Principles and Methods Using Indices
61R-10, Schedule Design – As Applied in Engineering, Procurement, and Construction
62R-11, Risk Assessment: Identification and Qualitative Analysis
63R-11, Risk Treatment
64R-11, CPM Schedule Risk Modeling and Analysis: Special Considerations
65R-11, Integrated Cost and Schedule Risk Analysis and Contingency Determination Using Expected Value
66R-11, Selecting Probability Distribution Functions for use in Cost and Schedule Risk Simulation Models
67R-11, Contract Risk Allocation – As Applied in Engineering, Procurement, and Construction
68R-11, Escalation Estimating Using Indices and Monte Carlo Simulation
70R-12, Principles of Schedule Contingency Management – As Applied in Engineering, Procurement and Construction
72R-12, Developing a Project Risk Management Plan
75R-13, Schedule and Cost Reserves within the Framework of ANSI EIA-748
77R-15, Quality Assurance/Quality Control for Risk Management
80R-13, Estimate at Completion (EAC)
82R-13, Earned Value Management (EVM) Overview and Recommended Practices Consistent with ANSI EIA-748
85R-14, Use of Decision Trees in Decision Making
16
GDR: Un enfoque integrador AACE - PMI
39R-06, Project Planning – As Applied in Engineering and Construction for Capital Projects
40R-08, Contingency Estimating – General Principles
41R-08, Risk Analysis and Contingency Determination Using Range Estimating
42R-08, Risk Analysis and Contingency Determination Using Parametric Estimating
43R-08, Risk Analysis and Contingency Determination Using Parametric Estimating – Example Models as Applied for the Process
Industries
44R-08, Risk Analysis and Contingency Determination Using Expected Value
57R-09, Integrated Cost and Schedule Risk Analysis Using Monte Carlo Simulation of a CPM Model
58R-10, Escalation Estimating Principles and Methods Using Indices
61R-10, Schedule Design – As Applied in Engineering, Procurement, and Construction
62R-11, Risk Assessment: Identification and Qualitative Analysis
63R-11, Risk Treatment
64R-11, CPM Schedule Risk Modeling and Analysis: Special Considerations
65R-11, Integrated Cost and Schedule Risk Analysis and Contingency Determination Using Expected Value
66R-11, Selecting Probability Distribution Functions for use in Cost and Schedule Risk Simulation Models
67R-11, Contract Risk Allocation – As Applied in Engineering, Procurement, and Construction
68R-11, Escalation Estimating Using Indices and Monte Carlo Simulation
70R-12, Principles of Schedule Contingency Management – As Applied in Engineering, Procurement and Construction
72R-12, Developing a Project Risk Management Plan
75R-13, Schedule and Cost Reserves within the Framework of ANSI EIA-748
77R-15, Quality Assurance/Quality Control for Risk Management
80R-13, Estimate at Completion (EAC)
82R-13, Earned Value Management (EVM) Overview and Recommended Practices Consistent with ANSI EIA-748
85R-14, Use of Decision Trees in Decision Making
17
GDR: Un enfoque integrador AACE - PMI
39R-06, Project Planning – As Applied in Engineering and Construction for Capital Projects
40R-08, Contingency Estimating – General Principles
41R-08, Risk Analysis and Contingency Determination Using Range Estimating
42R-08, Risk Analysis and Contingency Determination Using Parametric Estimating
43R-08, Risk Analysis and Contingency Determination Using Parametric Estimating – Example Models as Applied for the
Process Industries
44R-08, Risk Analysis and Contingency Determination Using Expected Value
57R-09, Integrated Cost and Schedule Risk Analysis Using Monte Carlo Simulation of a CPM Model
58R-10, Escalation Estimating Principles and Methods Using Indices
61R-10, Schedule Design – As Applied in Engineering, Procurement, and Construction
62R-11, Risk Assessment: Identification and Qualitative Analysis
63R-11, Risk Treatment
64R-11, CPM Schedule Risk Modeling and Analysis: Special Considerations
65R-11, Integrated Cost and Schedule Risk Analysis and Contingency Determination Using Expected Value
66R-11, Selecting Probability Distribution Functions for use in Cost and Schedule Risk Simulation Models
67R-11, Contract Risk Allocation – As Applied in Engineering, Procurement, and Construction
68R-11, Escalation Estimating Using Indices and Monte Carlo Simulation
70R-12, Principles of Schedule Contingency Management – As Applied in Engineering, Procurement and Construction
72R-12, Developing a Project Risk Management Plan
75R-13, Schedule and Cost Reserves within the Framework of ANSI EIA-748
77R-15, Quality Assurance/Quality Control for Risk Management
80R-13, Estimate at Completion (EAC)
82R-13, Earned Value Management (EVM) Overview and Recommended Practices Consistent with ANSI EIA-748
85R-14, Use of Decision Trees in Decision Making
18
Algunos pantallazos de software
11.x.2
Herra.
11.x.1
Entradas
Asegurar que
sean
Proveer Direccionar la apropiadas, a
Definir roles y Especificar Direccionar
recursos, interacción de tiempo, Desarrollar
Comunicación responsabilida fechas para las amenazas y
presupuesto y los riesgos y efectivas y estrategias
des respuestas oportunidades
cronograma las respuestas acorde al
riesgo las
respuestas
11.x.2
Herra.
11.x.1
Entradas
11.x.2
Herra.
11.x.1
Entradas
Oportunidades
Amenazas Escalar
D.Explotar
E. Compartir
F. Mejorar Estrategias de
respuesta ante
riesgos negativos
A.Evitar
B.Transferir
Estrategias de
C.Mitigar respuesta ante
riesgos positivos
D.Explotar
E. Compartir
F. Mejorar Estrategias de
respuesta ante
riesgos negativos
D.Explotar
E. Compartir
F. Mejorar Estrategias de
respuesta ante
riesgos negativos
D.Explotar
E. Compartir
F. Mejorar Estrategias de
respuesta ante
riesgos negativos
D.Explotar
E. Compartir
F. Mejorar Estrategias de
respuesta ante
riesgos negativos
A.Evitar
B.Transferir
Estrategias de
C.Mitigar respuesta ante
riesgos positivos
D.Explotar
E. Compartir
F. Mejorar Estrategias de
respuesta ante
riesgos negativos
D.Explotar
E. Compartir
F. Mejorar Estrategias de
respuesta ante
riesgos negativos