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The Observer
Population
Europe needs many more babies to
avert a population disaster
Across Europe birth rates are tumbling. The net effect is a
‘perfect demographic storm’ that will imperil economic growth
across the continent

Ashifa Kassam Madrid, Rosie

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Birth rates are falling across Europe leading to a 'perfect demographic storm'. Photograph: Bernd Vogel/Corbis
Spike Lee rounds on Donald
hen Spanish business consultant Alejandro Macarrón started Trump over Twitter attack
crunching the numbers behind Spain’s changing
demographics, he couldn’t believe what he was seeing. “I was
astonished,” said Macarrón. “We have provinces in Spain 'Centuries of entitlement':
where for every baby born, more than two people die. And the ratio is Emma Thompson on why she
moving closer to one to three.” quit Lasseter film

Spain has one of the lowest fertility rates in the EU, with an average of 1.27
children born for every woman of childbearing age, compared to the EU
average of 1.55. Its crippling economic crisis has seen a net exodus of people
from the country, as hundreds of thousands of Spaniards and migrants leave
in the hope of finding jobs abroad. The result is that, since 2012, Spain’s
population has been shrinking.

Record numbers of economic migrants and asylum-seekers are seeking to

enter the European Union this summer and are risking their lives in the
attempt. The paradox is that as police and security forces battle to keep them
at bay, a demographic crisis is unfolding across the continent. Europe
desperately needs more young people to run its health services, populate its
rural areas and look after its elderly because, increasingly, its societies are no
longer self-sustaining.

In Portugal, the population has been shrinking since 2010. For many
analysts, the question now is how low can it go, with projections by the
National Statistics Institute suggesting Portugal’s population could drop from
10.5 million to 6.3 million by 2060. According to prime minister Pedro Passos
Coelho: “We’ve got really serious problems.”

In Italy the retired population is soaring, with the proportion of over-65s set
to rise from 2.7% last year to 18.8% in 2050. Germany has the lowest birthrate
in the world: 8.2 per 1,000 population between 2008 and 2013, according to a
recent study by the Hamburg-based world economy institute, the HWWI.

The UK’s population reached 64.6 million by mid-2014, a growth of 491,000

over the previous year, according to the Office for National Statistics. On
average, Britain’s population grew at a faster rate over the last decade than it
has done over the last 50 years.

Macarrón is astonished at the reluctance of Spanish authorities to address

what he calls a direct threat to economic growth as well as pensions,
healthcare and social services. He and a few friends took it upon themselves
to begin tackling the issue, starting the non-profit group Demographic
Renaissance in 2013, with the aim of raising awareness of the crisis.

“Most people think we’re only talking about something that will be a
problem in 50 years, but we’re already seeing part of the problem,” he said.
“If current numbers hold, every new generation of Spaniards will be 40%
smaller than the previous one.”

A political knock-on effect is the overwhelming political power of the grey

vote. Macarrón points to the crippling austerity measure put in place during
the economic crisis: “During the same time frame, expenditures on pensions
rose by more than 40%. We’re moving closer to being a gerontocratic society
– it’s a government of the old.”

Age

Median age over time

UK | Germany | Italy | Spain | Poland | Sweden

45

40

35

30

25
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Guardian graphic Source: Reuters

The region of Galicia is one of the few in Spain that has addressed the issue.
The population of this north-western region has been shrinking, leaving it
home to the nearly half Spain’s abandoned villages. More than 1,500
settlements – once home to schools, businesses and filled with children –
now sit abandoned, overgrown with weeds and bushes.

In 2012, the regional government launched a multi-pronged initiative to

address the falling fertility rate, with plans to roll out measures such as home
and transport subsidies for families and radio advertisements urging women
to have more children. But it is still estimated that Galicia’s population could
shrink by 1 million residents in the next 40 years, a loss of just under one
third of the region’s population.

For southern Europe, migration within the EU has become a grave problem.
Hundreds of thousands of Portuguese have left, hoping to find better
opportunities abroad. Coelho has said the next 10 to 15 years would be
decisive in reversing the trend. If no action is taken, he said last year, “these
issues will only be solved by a miracle.”

The EU’s Eurostat agency estimates that by 2050, Portugal will be the
country in Europe that is home to the smallest proportion of children, with
just 11.5% of the population expected to be under the age of 15. Toy shops
and hundreds of schools are closing while petrol stations and motels are
being converted into nursing homes.

Coelho has called on the EU to make falling birthrates a priority in the next
five years. “This question has a dimension that is not strictly national,” he
said, pointing to labour legislation and “the manner in which urban life is
organised.”

Last year he created a commission dedicated to coming up with proposals to

reverse the country’s dwindling birthrate. Led by Professor Joaquim Azevedo
from the Catholic University of Portugal, a recent report by the commission
warned that failure to reverse the demographic crisis could leave Portugal
“unsustainable in terms of economic growth, social security and the welfare
state.”

“We are losing our population, as we know. These matters are crystal clear,”
said Azevedo. “ It is a reality. Facts are facts and that is what is happening.”

Ad hoc political solutions at a national level are failing. Italy has tried to
overcome its bleak demographic outlook with initiatives ranging from
pension cuts to a baby bonus, but the statistics are not on their side.

The country’s falling birthrate has multiple causes, such a lack of financial
security that prompts many Italians to live with their parents well into their
30s. The difficulty for mothers to return to the workplace also means women
must make considerable sacrifices if they decide to have children.

With the fertility rate falling from 2.37 in 1970 to 1.39 in 2013, the government
is encouraging Italians to have children. Prime minister Matteo Renzi
announced plans last year to give low-income couples a monthly “baby
bonus” of €80 (£57), but he is well aware finances are only a small part of the
problem. Last year an estimated 91,000 Italians emigrated, a sharp increase
from the 50,000 that did so in 2011. The youth jobless rate hit 44.2% in June,
while overall it stood at 12.3%.

In Germany last week there was a rare piece of good news. Germany’s
birthrate was found to be higher than it has been for 13 years, thanks to the
33,000, or 4.8%, more babies born last year than in 2013. Nevertheless, the
scale of the demographic crisis Europe’s largest economy faces has finally hit
home. For decades there have been far more deaths (last year 153,000 more)
than births in Germany. Those women who do give birth are bearing
relatively few (on average 1.4) children. Experts say to keep the population at
its current rate, that would need to rise to just over two.

By 2060 the government expects the population to plunge from 81 million to

67 million, a decrease that is being accelerated by depressed areas in both
eastern and western parts of the country that are haemorrhaging large
numbers. The UN predicts that, by 2030, the percentage of Germans in the
workplace will drop 7% to just 54%. No other industrial land is as starkly
affected – and this is despite a strong influx of young migrant labourers.

In order to offset this shortage, Germany needs to welcome an average of

533,000 immigrants every year, which perhaps gives context to the estimate
that 800,000 refugees are due to come to Germany this year.

Only Scandinavia appears to be weathering the demographic storm with any

success, partly thanks to generous parental leave systems, stable economies,
and, in the cases of Sweden and Norway, high net immigration.

“We do face an ageing population but the problem is not so alarming due to
relatively high fertility rates,” says Nizar Chakkour of Statistics Sweden.

Chakkour He puts the high fertility rates down to social support for parents.
“One common explanation [for the fertility rate] is that in Sweden it is
possible to combine motherhood with a working life,” he argues. “It is not
only the parental leave: it is also the subsidised childcare and the gender
equality.”

For Swedes, improving the demographic profile is advanced as one of the

most powerful arguments in favour of immigration. At a meeting in Brussels
in June, Prime Minister Stefan Löfven enjoined other European countries
follow his country’s example.

“I am not going to sweep under the carpet the fact that it’s a major challenge
at the moment,” he said of Sweden’s high levels of asylum applications. “But
it is also an asset. We must recognise that if we do not do this now, we are
going to have a gigantic problem in a few years.”

Immigration also props up the fertility rate and Britain and France have
received a similar fillip to its population growth as a result.

But across huge swaths of the European Union, longstanding communities

are disappearing and the social burden on the young is becoming
unsustainable. Meanwhile, in Kos, Lampedusa and on the Hungarian border,
tens of thousands plead to be allowed in.

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comments 659 Order by Oldest Threads Collapsed 1 2 3 4 …

Sign in or create your
Guardian account to join the ApfelD 22 Aug 2015 18:10 3
discussion.
Europe needs many more babies to avert a population disaster

Four letters won't solve the problem

Share Report

saintsfc121 ApfelD 22 Aug 2015 18:29 54

we need less babies across Europe to compensate for the countries that cant and
refuse to put into place measure to stop over population to avoid environmental
catastrophe. countries e.g India and Nigeria where high population growth is
currently causing major economic problems especially India where the
infrastructure is crippled

Share Report

nanader saintsfc121 22 Aug 2015 18:35 12

You mean - what's the point of me living if someone else wants to live?
Share Report

Show 13 more replies

TheAnswers42 22 Aug 2015 18:15 22

Ah, but you see these migrant babies are the wrong sort. Sarcasm, if you were wondering.
Share Report

bandtogether TheAnswers42 22 Aug 2015 19:42 81

An increasing percentage of the population that doesn't share our values is

definitely not the solution to anything, and is more likely to cause problems than
an ageing population.
Ultimately, the world as a whole needs to get used to declining populations,
because the current population globally is unsustainable.

Share Report

Nedward Marbletoe bandtogether 22 Aug 2015 19:55 9

Then advertise for the immigrants who would share your values. Maybe?
Agree the world needs to adjust to a paradigm not addicted to growth.

Share Report

Show 2 more replies

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