Negotiation & Peacemaking

ACTORS, ISSUES, & INTERESTS Session 4 – Nov. 16, 2017

Dr. Romain Malejacq

AGENDA

Actors
Interests & Issue Salience
Two-Level Games
Let’s Negotiate!
AGENDA

Actors
Interests & Issue Salience
Two-Level Games
Let’s Negotiate!
STATE DIPLOMACY
Formal format
 Routine negotiations
 Track I negotiations

Representatives of national governments

 Professional diplomats (and experts - envoys)
 Political leaders (high ranking officials)

Conveying messages
 Explicit (loud and clear)
 Implicit
SHIFTING PRACTICES
Coalitions
 Result of interdependency
 Pooling of sovereignties (leverage + costs)

Transnational Actors
 Corporations
 Sub-State Actors
 Rivals to Existing States
 NGOs

Track II Negotiations
 Unofficial negotiations
 Professionals, experts, interest groups
 Topic related forums
AGENDA

Actors
Interests & Issue Salience
Two-Level Games
Let’s Negotiate!
POSITIONS/INTERESTS/NEEDS
INTERESTS
High politics (Survival)
 Military Security
 Economic Interests

Low politics
 Environment
 Human Rights
 Aid and Development
 Health

Overlap between high and low issues

ISSUE SALIENCE
Perceived stakes
• How important is a particular issue to a particular actor
• Salience affects who and how will be involved in the negotiations

Domestic level
Interest groups – increasing the salience
Diverging/competing perceptions (Ex. agricultural subsidies by the EU)

Committing to an issue
Advantage: issue will become a priority (resources)
Disadvantage: issue will be subject to emotions and irrationality (pride & identity)
ISSUE SALIENCE
Sense of urgency (crisis)
Aim not to further aggravate the situation
Preventive scope

CNN effect
Making an issue salient
Visual aid
Information overload
(Re)Framing of issues
Political cover for unpopular decisions
AGENDA

Actors
Interests & Issue Salience
Two-Level Games
Let’s Negotiate!
TWO-LEVEL GAMES
Two-Level Game
Level 1 – international
Level 2 – domestic

Success dependent on a win-set: Overlap of perceptions

of acceptable outcomes on both levels
TWO-LEVEL GAMES
Openness vs. secrecy (Back Channel Negotiation)
 Publicizing willingness to negotiate internationally = more pressure from interested
groups domestically
 Utility of secret meetings: avoiding pressure from level-two

Regime type
 Democracies vs. autocracies
 Ex. Cuban Missile Crisis

Sense of urgency
 Political responsibility vs. “political suicide”
BREAK TIME
AGENDA

Actors
Interests & Issue Salience
Two-Level Games
Let’s Negotiate!
LET’S NEGOTIATE!

Oil pricing game between Russia and Azerbaijan

 Groups of 6: Team Russia (3) + Team Azerbaijan (3)
 Team Russia: 2 decision-makers + 1negotiator
 Team Azerbaijan: 2 decision-makers + 1negotiator (envoy)
 Barrel of crude oil: 50$, 55$, or 60$
 5 negotiating rounds
Price per barrel $60 $55 $50

$11M $18M $15M

$60
$11M $2M $2M

$2M $8M $15M

$55
$18M $8M $3M

$2M $3M $5M

$50
$15M $15M $5M
 Price Profit (month) Profit (cumulative)

Month Russia Azerbaijan Russia Azerbaijan Russia Azerbaijan

1