mm h\/ 2f we Cuapter 5 Probability Distributions ________ Probability Distributions Heer ue auaeatea eel ea ig ce Tee wey ens coat a eS See koe oe OS eS neces is called atrial and the possible outcomes are known as events Or cases For example{\i) Tossing of a coin isa trial and the turning up of head or tail ia an events Ui) Throwing a die is atrial and getting 1 or 2 or 3 or 4 or 5 o 6 is an event. (6) Exhaustive events. The total number ofall possible outcames in any tral is known as ckeutioe events op exhaugtve canes) For example: In tossing a coin, there are two exhaustive cases, head and tail, 7 (vfs towing a die, there arw 6 exhaustive cares, for any one ofthe sx Theos may tam ii) In throwing two dice, the exhaustive cases are 6 x 6 = 6 for any of the 6 numbers from I to 6 on one die can be associated with any of the 6 numbers on the other die. In general, in throwing m dice, the exhaustive cases are 6°. (cf Favourable events or cases. The cases which entail the happening of an event are ‘said to be favourable to the evend It is the total number of possible outcomes in which the ‘specified eveat happens. For example: (i) In throwing a die, the number of cases favourable to the appearance ofa multiple of 3 are two viz, 3 and 6 while the number of cases favourable to the appearance ofan even number are three, viz., 2,4 and 6 (ii) In a throw of two dice, the number of cases favourable to geiting a sum 6 is 5, iz. 1,6); (8, Ds (2, 9; 4, 2% (8, 3.) (d) Mutually exclusive events. Events are said to be mutually exclusive or incompat- ible ifthe happening of any one of them precludes (.c., rules out) the happening of all others] Le. ifno two or more than to of them can happen simultaneously in the same trial For example:({i) In tossing a coin, the events head and tail are mutually exclusive, ‘since if the outcome is-head, the possibility of getting tail in the same trial is ruled out. Gi) In throwing a die, all the six faces numbered, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 are mutually exclusive ‘since any outcome rules out the possibility of getting any other. Cie) Equally likely events. Events are said to be equally likely if there is no reason !° expect any one in preference to any other.) 2 wp. (NO WA) PROBABILITY OISTRIBUTIONS. 25 or examples) When ncard ia drwn fom awl shuld pack, anycardmayappenr ithe drs tht the 52 iforen cases are ealy ely in throwing» de all Uae fcr rt equally Healy come.) Tadependent and dependent event wor mere vets are ait be independent ice happening or nowhuppaning ofan ene fous mat Sepend fr nt afcead bythe heppning or atrhappesng ef any thr: Othervie they esi wet depen) or example: acai drtwn froma pack of wel sued cards and replaced bere raving th ero cad he reel ie pond draw a andapentient ote feet Se, Hew ihe ft car dow ot replaced, tet esto draw depts he fit draw. MATHEMATICAL (or Classical) DEFINITION OF PROBABILITY Ifa trial results inn exhaustive, mutually exclusive and equally key cases and m of them are favourable tothe happening of an «vent B, then the probability of happening of Ex riven by \vourable number of ent Por PIE)= Exhaustive number of eases n Note 1. Since the numberof case favourable to happening of Eis m and the exhaustive number cane inn, therefore, the numberof canes unfavoursble to happening of E aren mi "Note 2. The probability thatthe event E will not happen is given by Unfivoursble numberof nace _ n= ‘Exhaustive numberof see piget ie, PE)+PE)=1 Obviously, p andy are sot-negative and cannot exceed unity, tx, 0Sp5 1.05951 Note 3. IF P(E) = 1, Eis called a certain venti, the chance of ts happening is cent percent, I{PAE) =0, then Eis an impovsibie event [Note 4. fm cases ae fvoursble to E and m cases are favourable te E(k. unfavourable to E), then exhaustive sumber of ensen = Fa aan We any that “odds in for of" are nm and “odds against Bare mn ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLES. Expatiple 1. A bag contains 7 white, 6 red and § black balls. Two balls are drawn ot random: Find the probability thot they wil Both be white Sol. Total number of balls = 7+ 6 + 5 = 1. ‘Out of 18 balls, 2 ean be drawn nC, ways. aot) =e, Exhaustive number of cases = "C, Out of 7 white balls, 2 ean be drawn in Favourable number of cases = 21 Required probability esta 153" 51- Re rrmcot or nance mares Example 2 four cards ar dr fom pat of card Pind the probaly tha a, for aiamond i) hrs oan cad of coc mut di re are to oped td ash Sol, «card can be daa rom a pack o 52 cards in "Care x 5150%49 Exhaustive number ofeasen = "C, = S2XS51X50%49 ree! "C= Gxaxax1 72707. {0 There are 18 diamonds inthe pack and 4 canbe drawn tof them in ™C, way 1x 1211610 Favournble number of casen = Wc, = M9*12*11%10 | ble number of ng, = Beet? ons, Required probability ee Boras ” Bares ~ 4165 (G2) There are 4 suits, each containing 13 cards. Favourable number of cases = "Cj x #0, x 8G, 90, = 19% 196 19 019, Required probability = SAB e uaa 2197 270725” 20625 (i) 2 spades out of 13 cam be drawn in "Cy way 2 hearts out of 13 ean be drawn in Cy ways, Favourable number of exter = 10, + 90, 0 78 x 78 A Aoi prdbaey Bn se Eos "Doers Example 3:A bo cnsins 0 tek eed aS 160, of which five are dra at random and arranged in ascendir uitude (x, PS+PO=PS) > PHO. 5.6, PROBABILITY OF THE COMPLEMENTARY EVENT A or A® OF AIS GIVEN BY P(A) 1-PA) Proof. A and A are disjoint events, Alto AU A = S PAU A)=PS) = PIA) + PLA) = 1 Hence PKA) = 1 - PAA. SAE EN AREA eee ee OUa SE : [N\A he) PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS. aa PAU B)= PIA) + AB)— PAB) [Note 1. 1A and B are two mutually dajoit events, then AB = 9, an that PAB 2 AUB) = P(A) + PB). [Note 2. A.B) ie alan writin ax PUA +), Ths, for mutually diay ents A and 8, RAY B)= FA} PR), ao writen a POA An IF A, B AND C ARE ANY THREE EVENTS, THEN Pa A TEXTO0O OF HOMERS MATH, 5.7. FOR ANY TWO EVENTS A AND B, P(A © 8) = P(B)— PAB) Sn Proof, Ao B= (p:pe Bandpe Al Now © 9B and AB are disjcint sets and ~ Gapoans ees | - PLA AB) LAN B)) = PB) a) 5 PRA) + PAnB)=PB) | Ree = PAA \B) = PB)- ANB). Sn Aon Note. Similarly, it can be proved that VA = B) = PYA)~ MAB). 5.8. IF BCA, THEN (0 P(A P(A) — PB) _ (1) PB) 5 PLA) Proof. When BA, Band AB are disjoint and their union is A. = BuAnB=A = PIBU (An By) = Pra) = PB) + PAN B)= P(A) = PAnB) Now, if Bis any event, then O PAUB)=PIAU(A 1 Bll = PA) + AB) = PA) + IPRA OB) + AM B)- PA By PAA) + PUA 9B) (An BY PUA mB Ar Band AB are disjoint = PAA) + PB) Pan) = . be AnBvAnB=B) POAC BU 0) = PUA) + PAB) + P(C) - PAB) - PAB AC) - PICA) + PAS BO) Or P(A + B +) = P(A) + PCB) + P(C) ~ PLAB) - P(BC) ~ PICA) + PLABC). roof. Using the above Art. §.10 for two events, we have PAUBUC)=PIAUB) SC} AUB) + PC) PUAWB) OC) IPA) + PAB) - PAB) + PC) PLAC) BNC, [By distributive law] = PAA) + PLB) + PIO) PAN B)- (RANCH TRBAC)-PIADC)A (BOON [By 5.10) = PUA) + PIB) + PC) PIAA BI BANC)—PABACI+ BARB AC) fe An @ABaC=AnBacl : = MA) + PB) + PC) PAA B)- PBC) PACHA) + PAB AC) Te ANC=CoAl or PAs B+ C)= PIA) + PRB) + PIC) ~ PAB) — RBC) ~ P(CA) + PLABC). 5-12 Ay Ay A, ARE n MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE EVENTS, THEN THE \LITY OF THE HAPPENING OF ONE OF THEM IS PUA Ag Un UA) = PUA, + Ag oe Ay) = PUA) + PUA) + = + POA) Proof. Let N be the total number of mutually exclusive, exhaustive and equally likely ceases of which m, are favourable to A,, m, are favourable to A, and 80 on, Probability of currence of vent Ay = KA) = Prabbliy of ccurene of eent A, = Pia) = 22 | as Probability of occurrence of event A, ‘The events being mutually exclusive and equally likely, the number of eases favourable tothe event Aye Be orAyer a. Of Aism,+m,+...#m, Probability ofotuene font ofthe een hy At A Ay ¢ Ay A Mitmetoctm, om me em N N’N N PIA) + PAD +. HAA, | Using (2) Note. The student should sot get confused with Theorems 5.10, 5.11 and 5.12. Theorems 6.10 ‘and 6.11 are for ANY events (mutually exclusive or not) whereas Theorem 51 i fer mutually exclusive ‘evonts