MAD

Period TSD MA 2 MA 3 MA 4 MA 5 MA 6 MA 7 MA 8
January 2015 30
February 2015 48.5
March 2015 48 311
April 2015 49.25 142 323
May 2015 47.6 144.6 182.5 29
June 2015 40.83333 149.5 178.6667 63.5 44
July 2015 40.42857 142 137.75 43.33333 48 95
August 2015 37.625 152.625 155.6 75.75 86.66667 150 243
September 2015 34.33333 154.6667 169.8333 112.6 122 175.6667 254.5 303
October 2015 34.3 150.5 151.8571 97.66667 107.6 139.75 181.6667 189
November 2015 35.18182 156.4545 159.5 108 109.5 131 163.5 161
December 2015 36.25 154.1667 147.7778 99.25 102.7143 125.6667 154 146.25
January 2016 36.07692 158.5385 152.8 105.1111 107.75 131 161.1667 159.6
February 2016 34.5 161.4286 164.6364 123.7 125.2222 147.375 178.5714 185.5
March 2016 37.53333 152 157.6667 127.0909 130.9 149.7778 177.875 187
April 2016 35.375 157.625 161.1538 129.4167 126.9091 141.2 166 171.625
May 2016 36.52941 151.5294 157.2857 127 122.1667 130.0909 149.5 153.4444
June 2016 35.55556 158.0556 160.5333 129.4286 125.3077 134.5 156.4545 162.2
July 2016 35.78947 161.8421 168.5 138.3333 133.3571 143 165.5833 175.3636
August 2016 34.15 156.75 160.8824 136.0625 130.8667 138.7857 160.2308 170.6667
September 2016 36.09524 155.8095 158.6111 131.0588 122.75 129.5333 149.3571 157.8462
October 2016 36.40909 150.8182 150.5789 124 118.1765 126.875 145.1333 152.2143
November 2016 36.08696 152.5217 151.9 125 119.6111 130.2941 149.9375 156.8667
December 2016 34.75 155.9167 158.3333 133.45 127.7895 138.6667 159.8824 169.25
MA 9 MA 10 Holt's 1 Holt's 2 Holt's 3 Holt's 4 Holt's 5 Holt's 6 Holt's 7 Holt's 8
132 132 132 132 132 132 132 132
113 105.5 96.5 87 76 68 81 95
131 134.6667 138 140.3333 141 142 154.6667 164.6667
156.75 161 163.25 162.25 156.5 147.5 143.25 133.75
133 140.8 149.6 158.6 166.2 172.4 181.4 183.2
133.5 143.1667 155.1667 167.6667 178 183.6667 186.3333 177
117.8571 126.7143 137.7143 147.8571 153.2857 163.8571 176.4286 179.2857
116.5 124.125 134 144.5 153 167.25 181.625 183.375
120.4444 125.8889 133.4444 142.6667 150.6667 162.6667 171.7778 166.5556
111 114.1 122 131.5 141.8 151.1 165.3 178.4 178.1
91 37 124 133.2727 143.0909 152.5455 160.6364 173.2727 183.9091 179.7273
95.33333 85.5 116.6667 124.75 131.8333 142.5 153.8333 169.6667 184.6667 187
122.25 125.6667 111.3077 119.6923 128.3846 141.1538 154.0769 170.2308 184.6154 185.1538
164.4 175.5 114.2143 122.5714 132.0714 145.2143 157.0714 170.5714 181.1429 177.5714
175.1667 190 110 117.2 125.8 137 147.8 164.0667 177.8 177.7333
156 160 115.9375 123.625 132.4375 144.5 157 174.25 187.875 186.5625
136.875 139.5714 118.7059 125.4118 132.7647 143.4706 154.3529 168.2941 177.1176 180.4706
147.7778 152 115.6111 123.5556 132.5556 144.3889 156.7778 172.8889 184.2222 189.0556
165.3 170.6667 116.5789 125.2632 134.8947 146.5789 158.5789 173.6842 182.8947 183.8947
164.7273 171.3 112.1 120.05 129.4 141.6 154.5 171 182.85 187
153.1667 161.4545 113.2857 120.5238 129.619 142.1429 155.2857 171.8571 183.5238 186.3333
148.2308 157.0833 111.2727 117.1818 125.4091 137.1818 149.1364 164.1818 177.2273 182.6364
153.1429 162.4615 108.7826 115.6522 124.2174 135.913 148.1739 163.5652 177.087 182.7391
166.8667 176.2857 111.6667 119.0833 127.375 138.4167 150.0417 164.4167 176.5 180.2083
Holt's 9 Holt's 10 Winters' 1 Winters' 2 Winters' 3 Winters' 4 Winters' 5 Winters' 6 Winters' 7
132 132 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
110 126 19.5 19.5 19.5 19.5 20 20 20
171.3333 173.6667 39.33333 41 42.666667 44.666667 47 49.666667 52.333333
137 157.25 48.25 48.25 48 47.25 46.25 44.75 42.25
189.4 202.2 45 47.4 50.2 52.8 55.4 57.6 58.6
166.3333 177.6667 39.66667 40.166667 42.333333 45.333333 47.5 48.333333 51
177.4286 187.4286 39.28571 38.142857 39 41.142857 43.428571 45.285714 49
175.75 175.25 35.5 36.5 38.625 43.5 45.5 46.875 50.5
159.8889 163.6667 35.22222 38 43.111111 47.555556 46.777778 47.666667 50.777778
173.4 174.8 36.8 40.5 45.3 46.7 45 44.9 47.1
168.8182 163 38.81818 42.545455 46.272727 46.272727 43.363636 42.090909 45
181.8333 178.4167 38.41667 40.416667 45.333333 47.166667 46 45.833333 49.083333
175.6154 165.3846 39.61538 41.384615 44.923077 45.846154 44.769231 45.615385 50.307692
164.7143 153.7143 39.78571 40.642857 42.5 45.214286 44.785714 45.642857 50.285714
167.1333 156.4667 41.46667 43.266667 46.866667 50.866667 49.866667 50.466667 54.733333
173.625 160.25 40.125 41.3125 43.9375 48.4375 49.3125 51.5 57.125
173.2941 164.3529 42.52941 44.352941 46.235294 51.352941 54.705882 57.294118 61.176471
181.5556 170.0556 42.27778 42.611111 44.055556 48.777778 52.166667 54.555556 60.444444
172 165.5263 43.73684 42.526316 42.894737 47.473684 50.315789 52.894737 57.894737
177.45 170.75 43.1 40.5 41.4 45.6 47.9 51.6 56.05
174.1905 164 44.09524 42.952381 44 47.761905 50 53.285714 56.809524
173.5909 164.8182 43.04545 42.818182 43.318182 46.045455 48.5 51.090909 56.772727
173.087 162.4783 43.52174 42.391304 43.608696 47 50.173913 52.913043 58.217391
168.6667 156.7917 43.375 41.291667 42.958333 46.541667 48.916667 51.166667 57.291667
Winters' 8 Winters' 9 Winters' 10
1 1 1
20.5 20.5 21
55.666667 58.666667 62.666667
44.5 54 66
62.4 70.4 77.8
58 69.833333 81.5
55.857143 65.428571 72.285714
57.75 68.25 73.625
57.333333 66.222222 67.222222
52.2 60.1 61
48.909091 55.545455 56.272727
52.916667 58.833333 60.833333
55.923077 63.692308 67.923077
56.428571 64.142857 68.785714
60.533333 67.533333 69.2
64.25 74.1875 74.875
66.941176 73.235294 71.294118
67.777778 75.388889 71.833333
65.105263 73.578947 70.736842
62.3 71.2 69.05
62.095238 70.190476 66.714286
62.681818 70.727273 67.681818
63.043478 71.217391 67.26087
63.208333 71.708333 68.708333
MAPE
Period TSD MA 2 MA 3 MA 4 MA 5 MA 6
January 2015 1.99
February 2015 3.14
March 2015 2.95 16.87
April 2015 2.88 14.99 16.48
May 2015 2.78 12.95 9.44 1.66
June 2015 2.38 12.30 9.69 3.75 2.62
July 2015 2.34 10.91 7.47 2.55 2.75 5.25
August 2015 2.16 11.01 8.28 4.11 4.60 7.82
September 2015 1.97 10.62 8.85 5.81 6.21 8.88
October 2015 1.95 10.04 7.91 5.04 5.50 7.08
November 2015 2.00 10.28 8.43 5.69 5.70 6.75
December 2015 2.03 9.91 7.80 5.22 5.34 6.46
January 2016 2.00 9.93 7.97 5.46 5.53 6.66
February 2016 1.91 9.85 8.40 6.22 6.24 7.30
March 2016 2.02 9.16 8.02 6.33 6.46 7.36
April 2016 1.91 9.39 8.20 6.46 6.27 6.95
May 2016 1.96 8.95 7.99 6.34 6.04 6.40
June 2016 1.89 9.13 8.07 6.40 6.13 6.55
July 2016 1.88 9.17 8.33 6.72 6.42 6.84
August 2016 1.80 8.81 7.94 6.58 6.27 6.62
September 2016 1.88 8.68 7.81 6.33 5.88 6.18
October 2016 1.88 8.35 7.41 5.99 5.66 6.04
November 2016 1.85 8.33 7.41 5.99 5.68 6.13
December 2016 1.78 8.36 7.59 6.26 5.94 6.40
MA 7 MA 8 MA 9 MA 10 Holt's 1 Holt's 2 Holt's 3
8.78 8.78 8.78
7.40 6.92 6.34
7.95 8.10 8.22
8.95 9.14 9.22
7.59 8.00 8.46
7.68 8.20 8.87
6.77 7.25 7.86
12.32 6.60 7.02 7.56
12.61 14.69 6.69 6.99 7.42
9.03 9.31 5.83 6.32 6.75 7.27
8.32 8.19 4.92 2.09 6.89 7.40 7.94
7.83 7.44 5.04 4.45 6.47 6.91 7.32
8.11 8.00 6.23 6.27 6.14 6.60 7.07
8.77 9.03 7.98 8.36 6.19 6.64 7.15
8.67 9.03 8.41 8.98 5.94 6.33 6.79
8.11 8.31 7.51 7.57 6.22 6.64 7.11
7.30 7.43 6.59 6.61 6.33 6.70 7.09
7.55 7.76 7.02 7.11 6.14 6.55 7.02
7.86 8.24 7.68 7.83 6.11 6.56 7.04
7.59 7.99 7.63 7.83 5.87 6.28 6.75
7.07 7.39 7.09 7.38 5.89 6.26 6.72
6.86 7.12 6.85 7.17 5.76 6.07 6.49
7.01 7.26 7.01 7.35 5.61 5.96 6.38
7.33 7.67 7.48 7.82 5.67 6.03 6.44
Holt's 4 Holt's 5 Holt's 6 Holt's 7 Holt's 8 Holt's 9 Holt's 10
8.78 8.78 8.78 8.78 8.78 8.78 8.78
5.73 5.03 4.52 5.35 6.25 7.21 8.23
8.29 8.25 8.25 9.03 9.66 10.12 10.35
9.12 8.78 8.28 8.16 7.77 8.02 9.14
8.95 9.37 9.74 10.35 10.58 10.99 11.69
9.57 10.16 10.50 10.72 10.26 9.66 10.28
8.43 8.75 9.35 10.11 10.32 10.21 10.76
8.14 8.61 9.39 10.23 10.37 9.97 9.98
7.93 8.36 9.03 9.59 9.39 9.04 9.25
7.84 8.34 9.12 9.88 9.93 9.68 9.77
8.46 8.90 9.59 10.21 10.04 9.44 9.12
7.89 8.49 9.34 10.18 10.33 10.03 9.83
7.75 8.42 9.28 10.08 10.14 9.63 9.11
7.83 8.45 9.18 9.80 9.67 9.02 8.46
7.38 7.94 8.79 9.55 9.58 9.03 8.50
7.74 8.39 9.29 10.03 10.00 9.33 8.66
7.66 8.22 8.95 9.46 9.66 9.28 8.83
7.63 8.26 9.08 9.68 9.95 9.56 8.99
7.64 8.25 9.02 9.53 9.63 9.05 8.71
7.36 8.01 8.84 9.46 9.69 9.23 8.87
7.35 8.00 8.83 9.44 9.61 9.03 8.52
7.08 7.68 8.43 9.10 9.39 8.94 8.50
6.97 7.57 8.34 9.02 9.31 8.85 8.33
7.00 7.57 8.29 8.91 9.12 8.59 8.02
Winters' 1 Winters' 2 Winters' 3 Winters' 4 Winters' 5 Winters' 6 Winters' 7
0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07
1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.28 1.28 1.28
2.26 2.35 2.44 2.55 2.68 2.83 2.97
2.65 2.66 2.65 2.61 2.57 2.50 2.38
2.49 2.63 2.79 2.95 3.11 3.25 3.32
2.20 2.23 2.36 2.54 2.67 2.73 2.90
2.18 2.12 2.17 2.30 2.44 2.55 2.78
1.96 2.01 2.13 2.39 2.51 2.60 2.82
1.92 2.06 2.32 2.56 2.54 2.60 2.79
2.00 2.18 2.43 2.51 2.44 2.45 2.58
2.12 2.31 2.49 2.50 2.36 2.30 2.47
2.09 2.19 2.43 2.53 2.48 2.47 2.66
2.13 2.22 2.40 2.45 2.40 2.44 2.70
2.11 2.16 2.26 2.39 2.37 2.42 2.67
2.17 2.26 2.44 2.63 2.59 2.62 2.85
2.10 2.16 2.29 2.50 2.56 2.67 2.97
2.21 2.30 2.40 2.64 2.82 2.95 3.16
2.18 2.21 2.28 2.51 2.68 2.81 3.11
2.22 2.18 2.21 2.43 2.58 2.71 2.97
2.18 2.08 2.13 2.33 2.46 2.63 2.87
2.22 2.18 2.24 2.42 2.54 2.70 2.89
2.16 2.16 2.19 2.33 2.46 2.59 2.87
2.16 2.13 2.19 2.35 2.51 2.64 2.91
2.14 2.06 2.14 2.31 2.44 2.55 2.85
Winters' 8 Winters' 9 Winters' 10
0.07 0.07 0.07
1.31 1.31 1.35
3.15 3.32 3.54
2.51 3.00 3.62
3.54 3.96 4.33
3.31 3.96 4.60
3.17 3.70 4.08
3.23 3.80 4.09
3.16 3.64 3.72
2.87 3.31 3.38
2.70 3.06 3.12
2.88 3.21 3.33
3.00 3.41 3.64
2.99 3.39 3.64
3.15 3.52 3.62
3.34 3.86 3.91
3.46 3.80 3.72
3.47 3.86 3.71
3.33 3.75 3.63
3.18 3.62 3.53
3.16 3.56 3.41
3.17 3.56 3.43
3.16 3.56 3.39
3.14 3.54 3.41
MSE
Period TSD MA 2 MA 3 MA 4 MA 5 MA 6 MA 7
January 2015 900.00
February 2015 2694.50
March 2015 2532.67 96721.00
April 2015 2601.75 81385.00 104329.00
May 2015 2417.60 62265.00 53046.50 841.00
June 2015 2022.83 54267.75 45111.33 5222.50 1936.00
July 2015 1940.14 45296.00 33889.75 3484.67 2320.00 9025.00
August 2015 1738.13 46334.83 37417.60 10095.75 10512.00 25525.00 59049.00
September 2015 1552.11 43892.86 40861.50 21596.60 20880.00 34193.00 64902.50
October 2015 1512.50 40002.38 35300.71 18085.33 17204.00 25900.75 43700.33
November 2015 1551.00 40741.67 36559.25 19630.29 16696.83 22563.80 35745.50
December 2015 1613.75 38331.60 32821.11 17357.00 14860.71 20436.67 31287.60
January 2016 1578.54 38894.27 33459.40 17995.56 15559.25 21312.71 32541.17
February 2016 1479.79 38953.17 37698.45 24664.10 21633.22 27229.13 39333.71
March 2016 1807.80 35987.54 35103.67 24778.36 22782.30 27377.11 38158.13
April 2016 1695.38 37600.14 35573.31 24715.58 21399.27 25049.00 34478.44
May 2016 1773.59 35287.87 33850.14 23553.15 20024.33 22804.64 31030.70
June 2016 1695.11 37604.94 34422.53 23722.29 20527.77 23695.00 32853.00
July 2016 1690.11 38504.65 37455.13 26752.07 23107.50 26489.62 36011.58
August 2016 1606.05 36565.50 35341.35 25730.31 22181.40 25101.50 33950.38
September 2016 1797.43 35628.84 34177.94 24369.76 20795.13 23428.07 31529.93
October 2016 1799.77 33953.20 32381.00 23016.78 19691.00 22436.88 29921.00
November 2016 1758.09 34055.43 32328.40 22881.63 19749.06 23130.29 31131.19
December 2016 1685.50 34996.36 34711.29 26059.35 22689.89 26232.00 35285.88
MA 8 MA 9 MA 10 Holt's 1 Holt's 2 Holt's 3 Holt's 4 Holt's 5 Holt's 6
17424.00 17424.00 17424.00 17424.00 17424.00 17424.00
13130.00 11832.50 10572.50 9594.00 8912.00 8720.00
18049.67 20304.67 23328.67 26732.33 30421.67 33846.67
27226.25 29628.50 31776.75 33045.25 33118.50 32109.00
22069.80 24422.80 27226.40 30583.40 34899.80 40484.00
21474.17 24356.50 28270.17 33047.67 38444.67 43336.67
18488.71 20989.00 24387.14 28446.71 32956.14 37435.00
17608.75 19769.88 22796.75 26721.00 31686.75 37315.75
91809.00 18219.33 19751.00 22112.78 25572.44 30102.00 34933.56
48717.00 12321.00 16722.30 18532.80 21201.10 24810.80 29494.30 35012.30
36153.00 8681.00 1369.00 19722.91 22349.45 25372.00 28700.73 32770.82 37648.36
29715.75 9392.67 9662.50 18187.33 20567.08 23263.00 26394.33 30560.00 35919.33
32846.40 17346.75 20587.00 16958.23 19252.77 22055.77 25565.92 30105.31 35566.23
43909.50 36055.20 41846.50 17397.21 19706.14 22794.64 26540.07 30698.93 35213.29
43124.71 38786.17 45778.00 16410.80 18510.00 21371.27 24803.00 28673.93 33221.00
38246.13 33485.43 38165.00 18011.69 20378.13 23399.56 27380.88 32320.88 37827.75
34003.67 29300.88 32754.14 18515.06 20574.47 23143.35 26719.00 31157.53 35916.06
36411.40 32181.33 35800.00 17706.94 19901.67 22782.11 26656.83 31604.56 37420.78
41669.36 39396.10 43200.00 17720.05 20135.05 23231.95 27074.68 31861.21 37311.47
39377.00 38112.91 42012.90 16870.50 19150.35 22101.60 25831.40 30564.60 36165.90
36349.23 34993.17 38554.36 16960.90 19043.19 21904.19 25716.05 30501.57 36144.71
34198.64 32910.69 36331.58 16406.36 18278.00 20970.77 24596.64 29133.32 34502.18
35204.33 33923.43 37500.62 15819.83 17775.65 20476.57 24034.35 28567.91 33980.35
40880.63 40253.93 43874.57 16480.83 18668.50 21290.04 24633.58 28929.63 33975.17
Holt's 7 Holt's 8 Holt's 9 Holt's 10 Winters' 1 Winters' 2 Winters' 3 Winters' 4 Winters' 5
17424.00 17424.00 17424.00 17424.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
9162.00 10394.00 12584.00 15912.00 722.50 722.50 722.50 722.50 761.00
36509.33 37734.67 37201.33 34728.33 2562.00 2833.67 3122.00 3490.00 3907.67
30352.25 28721.25 28190.00 28962.25 3327.75 3350.25 3365.50 3373.75 3414.75
46593.00 52009.20 54392.20 52354.60 2867.00 3067.40 3388.60 3824.00 4424.60
46247.67 46893.67 45760.33 44133.00 2417.33 2558.83 2825.33 3197.33 3697.83
41596.43 45515.86 47728.29 46473.43 2267.57 2289.86 2473.29 2777.14 3221.14
42337.38 45444.38 45124.25 41676.75 1994.25 2081.75 2326.13 2880.00 3268.50
38594.22 40508.78 40231.44 37606.11 1893.67 2128.22 2761.11 3271.11 3266.33
40399.20 44410.30 44910.80 41408.00 1964.40 2312.30 2907.50 3096.10 3023.80
41919.36 43865.36 42203.36 37827.73 2102.27 2462.91 2928.27 2975.00 2815.18
41530.17 46150.67 47488.50 44767.42 2023.42 2281.75 2786.33 2997.83 3049.33
40939.85 44644.38 44620.23 41330.00 2092.08 2322.31 2695.08 2836.46 2884.00
39336.71 41901.29 41470.86 38378.14 2068.64 2225.07 2511.21 2731.64 2822.64
37858.33 41267.87 41399.53 38354.60 2212.40 2503.40 3121.40 3676.20 3610.53
42674.75 45048.69 43402.13 38900.50 2099.13 2355.94 2926.31 3455.44 3489.94
40165.94 42804.00 42509.29 39724.00 2361.59 2726.12 3159.41 3817.12 4454.12
43102.56 46660.72 45907.89 41477.61 2310.61 2584.06 2986.61 3606.44 4211.17
42164.58 44640.74 43491.68 39665.95 2446.89 2536.53 2854.89 3446.95 4004.74
41712.55 45434.50 45265.15 41327.65 2372.60 2409.90 2720.60 3279.60 3804.70
41574.29 44696.14 43675.43 39399.71 2454.67 2698.19 3029.90 3517.76 4026.57
39776.59 43165.64 42868.41 39114.45 2363.14 2648.27 2930.41 3362.41 3856.68
39363.52 42776.91 42145.61 37949.52 2387.17 2580.48 2911.70 3417.26 4018.09
38830.42 41614.71 40576.58 36396.46 2354.38 2483.63 2823.04 3328.88 3867.33
Winters' 6 Winters' 7 Winters' 8 Winters' 9 Winters' 10
1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
761.00 761.00 800.50 800.50 841.00
4467.67 5070.33 5825.67 6608.67 7666.00
3575.75 3838.75 4399.50 5356.50 7193.50
5236.80 6146.20 7110.80 7984.40 8879.80
4364.67 5150.00 6141.67 7401.83 9066.50
3845.29 4609.86 5528.43 6561.71 7812.57
3785.13 4498.75 5467.50 6709.50 7697.13
3688.56 4311.00 5184.00 6241.78 6870.33
3359.70 3899.50 4669.20 5620.10 6185.80
3072.09 3597.36 4268.00 5118.27 5630.82
3446.83 4033.92 4696.42 5443.83 6188.33
3323.92 4048.62 4986.23 6170.00 7513.00
3237.64 3938.00 4913.57 6079.29 7433.50
3950.07 4588.07 5514.27 6555.67 7312.93
3983.75 4841.88 6069.63 8038.19 8455.88
5072.94 5490.94 6424.35 7763.24 7970.00
4794.67 5313.89 6441.00 8028.83 7891.72
4570.16 5041.79 6117.21 7694.74 7613.26
4378.10 4811.75 5815.40 7343.80 7301.05
4530.05 4829.48 5698.67 7113.14 6972.43
4325.27 4752.50 5695.32 7095.45 7007.50
4513.26 4898.04 5666.87 7079.30 6849.09
4330.25 4747.96 5617.79 7071.38 6997.21
Demand
Period Sales
January 2015 1504
February 2015 1561
March 2015 1844
April 2015 1960
May 2015 1747
June 2015 1680
July 2015 1811
August 2015 1973
September 2015 2063
October 2015 1905
November 2015 1768
December 2015 1966
January 2016 2078
February 2016 2221
March 2016 2170
April 2016 1954
May 2016 2008
June 2016 2250
July 2016 2359
August 2016 2245
September 2016 2165
October 2016 2251
November 2016 2398
December 2016 2559