Future of Energy

Dynamic Briefing
Generated 28 April 2019 for AXELL SUTTON
Future of Energy
Last review on Fri 07 September 2018

About

This dynamic briefing draws on the collective intelligence of the Forum network to explore the key trends,
interconnections and interdependencies between industry, regional and global issues. In the briefing, you
will find a visual representation of this topic (Transformation Map – interactive version available online via
TopLink), an overview and the key trends affecting it, along with summaries and links to the latest
research and analysis on each of the trends. Briefings for countries also include the relevant data from
the Forum’s benchmarking indices. The content is continuously updated with the latest thinking of
leaders and experts from across the Forum network, and with insights from Forum meetings, projects
communities and activities.

Future of Energy Briefing, April 2019

Executive summary
Energy consumption and production account for about two-thirds of global greenhouse gas emissions,
and 81% of the global energy mix is still based on fossil fuels - the same percentage as 30 years ago. A
transition to a more inclusive, sustainable, affordable, and secure global energy system that addresses
global challenges while creating value is needed. This must be done without upsetting the balance of the
“energy triangle”: security and access; environmental sustainability; and economic development and
growth. The World Economic Forum’s System Initiative on Shaping the Future of Energy aims to
accelerate the policies, private-sector action, and public-private cooperation required to enable this
transition.

(This Transformation Map is informed by the views of a wide range of experts from the World Economic
Forum’s Expert Network and is curated in partnership with Scott Burger, Research Associate and MIT
energy fellow, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and Simon Engelke, PhD Candidate, University of
Cambridge. It is based on one of the World Economic Forum’s “System Initiatives”: platforms for collective
action to enable sustained, positive change by addressing global challenges holistically)

1. Energy System Governance 5. Energy Technology and Innovation

The global energy system is still governed by institutions
like the International Energy Agency, the Organization of
Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), and the Energy
Charter Treaty, which were created after the oil crises of
the 1970s. But the energy world looks very different now.
2. Energy Finance and Investment
If global warming continues at its current pace, a 1.5°C
temperature rise above pre-industrial levels could occur as
soon as 2030 - triggering catastrophic drought, floods and
poverty, according to a 2018 Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change report. Renewable energy technologies
are desperately needed to help address this situation.
While the cost of solar energy decreased to $0.

Stabilizing global greenhouse gas emissions, meeting 6. Future of Energy Demand

future energy demand, and increasing access to reliable
electricity will all require substantial additional private Expanding populations, growing economies, and
investment. improving efficiency are all having a fundamental impact
on energy demand. Significant change will occur in the
3. Future of Power Systems next few decades, as the global population is expected to
grow from about 7.
The planning for electricity systems was traditionally done
according to investment cycles lasting as long as 60
years. However, this has now changed dramatically.
Record levels of new investment are required for
developed markets focused on rapid decarbonization,
while fast-growing emerging markets must build electricity
systems that can support increases in energy
consumption per capita.

4. Energy Access
Ensuring access to energy is a moral imperative. Nearly
half of the global population is affected by energy poverty,
and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals
established in 2015 make energy access a priority.

Future of Energy Briefing, April 2019

Energy System Governance

The governing of energy use has to be updated for a new geopolitical reality

The global energy system is still governed by institutions like

the International Energy Agency, the Organization of Related insight areas: Geopolitics, Cybersecurity, Climate
Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), and the Energy Change, Global Governance, Nuclear Security, United
Charter Treaty, which were created after the oil crises of the States, Geo-economics, International Security, China,
1970s. But the energy world looks very different now. New Global Risks, Sustainable Development, Middle East and
issues include an intensifying race to further exploit Arctic North Africa, International Trade and Investment
resources, turbulence in oil markets, an uncertain future for
natural gas, the transition to low-carbon energy, and
renewed concern about nuclear safety. Too much discussion
about international energy is being dominated by the
concerns of developed countries, and not enough is about
the opportunities for (and threats to) emerging economies -
which will have the most influence on driving demand,
innovation, and patterns of energy trade and investment in
the future. In addition, international energy matters are often
being viewed through a country-specific lens that frames
energy security as a zero-sum game - which in turn results
in the inefficient use of resources, and in missed
opportunities to cooperate on energy-related research &
development, investment, and commercialization.

Many threats to the global energy system have emerged,

including climate-related risks for energy infrastructure due
to coastal flooding, cyberattacks on increasingly integrated
electricity grids, a risk of financial collapse for energy firms,
and a risk of restricted access to minerals like cobalt that
are essential for new energy technologies. A number of
energy-related threats to health, productivity, and equality
result from the lack of access to electricity that still plagues
roughly 1 billion people, and from the lack of clean cooking
fuel affecting another 3 billion; however, this is often
overlooked by global governance systems. The changing
geopolitics of energy has also re-shaped related risk. The re-
emergence of the US as a major oil producer has tilted the
balance between OPEC and oil-consuming countries, the
emergence of shale oil and gas has created a new dynamic
that will shape energy markets for the foreseeable future,
and the growing popularity of wind and solar technologies
has made China the primary manufacturing centre for
renewables (China is also making significant investments in
technologies such as storage and power-sector automation).
As more economies electrify and become reliant on local,
low-carbon energy sources like wind, solar, geothermal, and
nuclear power, it will further alter governance and
geopolitical systems that were originally designed for fossil-
fuel-based energy markets.

Future of Energy Briefing, April 2019

 Latest knowledge

Project Syndicate Project Syndicate

Can Capitalism Beat Climate Change? The World Bank Must Change Course
27 April 2019 11 April 2019

Only clear targets can transform rational self-
interest from a potentially catastrophic force into a
powerful driver of beneficial change. Once investors know
that the non-negotiable end point is zero carbon in 2050,
they will desert any company whose plans are
incompatible with that objective.
The World Bank does a lot of important and
effective work, especially in health and education, but its
climate policies are poorly considered. The Bank’s new
president, David Malpass, should refocus the institution on
its core mission of eradicating poverty – including the
energy poverty that wrecks so many lives.

The Conversation Project Syndicate

How a Japanese system can help
African cities adapt to climate change
25 April 2019
Urban adaptation to climate change is more effective
where local citizens participate.
Project Syndicate
The Arab Spring’s Second Chance
23 April 2019
How to Liberate Algeria’s Economy
09 April 2019
Algeria’s economy is growing far too slowly to
provide enough jobs for a young, expanding, and
increasingly restless population. The country's authorities
need to boost competition, spur the creation of a digital
economy, and revamp state-owned enterprises.

Demonstrators in Algeria and Sudan want to

reduce the army's political role, and seem to have
learned the lessons from a decade of stymied political
transitions in the region. The next few weeks will show
whether they can wrestle enough control from the military
to start building a more hopeful future.

Wharton School of the University of

Pennsylvania - Knowledge@Wharton
Banking on the Future of
Cryptocurrencies
18 April 2019

Cryptocurrencies will one day be used everywhere,

predicts Litecoin creator Charlie Lee.

Bruegel
Getting better all the time: The benefits
of learning for decarbonisation
16 April 2019

The technological development will dramatically impact

decarbonisation cost. In this blog post, the author
suggests that national decarbonisation strategies should
put a special emphasis on the benefits of learning.

Future of Energy Briefing, April 2019

Energy Finance and Investment

Trillions of dollars in funding will be needed to follow through on the Paris Agreement

Stabilizing global greenhouse gas emissions, meeting future

energy demand, and increasing access to reliable electricity
will all require substantial additional private investment. The
International Energy Agency has estimated that about $53
trillion in energy-related investment will be necessary
between 2014 and 2035 in order to achieve the Paris
Agreement’s stated target of limiting warming to less than
2°C above pre-industrial temperatures. However, the 2016
agreement only calls for $100 billion in annual investment
over its first five years. Electricity markets will require more
renewables in order to achieve the Paris Agreement goals,
and electricity infrastructure will have to receive substantial
related funding. By some estimates, the power system alone
will require roughly $55 trillion to hit the 2°C target. With
national budgets generally constrained, private investors will
have to play a more prominent role. Creating the right
investment environment for them - one that takes into
account different risk appetites for different classes of
investors - will be key. This is especially true for institutional
investors like pension funds, which have historically avoided
the clean energy sector.

Public policy can help create the right market environment,

by setting long-term targets and enacting mechanisms to
help hit them. For example, California’s historic legislation
passed in 2018 calling for 60% of all of the state’s energy to
be renewable by 2030, and 100% to be renewable by 2045,
creates a stable financial framework for achieving this. The
value of similar mechanisms has been proven in many clean
energy markets by helping to drive deployment, increase
confidence, and decrease both risk and the cost of capital.
Increasing digitalization and transparent access to
information could have important effects on financing models
for future energy systems. As digital technologies capable of
monitoring and predicting the performance of energy
infrastructure proliferate, the resulting data will become
important elements of attracting financing - and parts of an
investment portfolio could become more easily segmented
according to risk profile. In addition, the small-scale nature
of many clean energy resources (like solar in sub-Saharan
Africa, for example) means they can be made widely-
available via financing done through a mobile phone.

Related insight areas: Digital Communications, Information

Technology, Financial and Monetary Systems, Climate
Change, Institutional Investors, Digital Economy and Society,
Environment and Natural Resource Security, Electricity,
Internet of Things, Private Investors, Blended Finance

Future of Energy Briefing, April 2019

 Latest knowledge

International Institute for Sustainable GovLab - Living Library

Development
How Can Blockchain Improve
Sustainability in Mining?
26 April 2019
Companies interested in sustainability and transparency
are starting to use blockchain to trace materials back to
their sources.
World Economic Forum
How electrification can supercharge
the energy transition
25 April 2019
Electrification is critical for decarbonization – and low-
carbon electricity is the best candidate energy carrier to
help us meet the terms of the Paris Agreement.
World Resources Institute
Climate Action Now: 3 U.S. States, 3
Cities and Puerto Rico Lead the Way
22 April 2019
The Green New Deal has inspired activism and debate,
but not much action on Capitol Hill so far. That hasn't
stopped states, cities and the U.S. territory of Puerto Rico
from taking bold steps now.
Building Trust in Human Centric
Artificial Intelligence
11 April 2019
Artificial intelligence (AI) has the potential to transform our
world for the better: it can improve healthcare, reduce
energy consumption, make cars safer, and enable farmers
to use water and natural resources more efficiently. AI
can be used to predict environmental and climate
change, improve financial risk management and provides
the tools to manufacture, with less waste, products
tailored to our needs. AI can also help to detect fraud and
cybersecurity threats, and enables law enforcement
agencies to fight crime more efficiently.
Project Syndicate
Toward a Global Green New Deal
09 April 2019
Though the 2008 financial crisis created an
impetus to reinvigorate multilateralism, global paeans to
cooperation ultimately did not lead to lasting solutions.
Now that uneven economic recovery is combining with
deteriorating environmental conditions to threaten
humanity itself, world leaders must finish what they
started.

Center for International Forestry Research

What Peru’s government officials think
of collective titling
17 April 2019

Bureaucracy, budgets, and a blank book on indigenous

conflict resolution

The German Marshall Fund of the United

States
The Implications of Eastern
Mediterranean Gas for Turkey
15 April 2019

Since the beginning of the year, the Eastern

Mediterranean has undergone two important
developments that will have significant geostrategic and
energy-market implications—the discovery of the third-
largest natural gas resources off the south coast of Cyprus
by ExxonMobil, and the creation of a regional energy
forum in Cairo in January. These developments confirm
that energy issues will play a bigger role in the new
regional dynamics and that several protagonists will be
competing to exploit these newly discovered resources.

Future of Energy Briefing, April 2019

Future of Power Systems

The developed and the developing worlds are on two distinct system-building missions

The planning for electricity systems was traditionally done

according to investment cycles lasting as long as 60 years.
However, this has now changed dramatically. Record levels
of new investment are required for developed markets
focused on rapid decarbonization, while fast-growing
emerging markets must build electricity systems that can
support increases in energy consumption per capita.
Regardless of the location, the energy “trilemma” - a
concurrent need for access and affordability, security, and
sustainability - promises to be a source of tension.
Developed markets will look to complete their transition to
cleaner energy by supplementing renewable capacity with
more decentralized generation, energy storage, and smarter
digital grids; meanwhile in faster-growing markets, energy
investment will be more heavily skewed towards the basic
infrastructure needed to one day provide universal access. In
order to help close this gap in power access between high-
and low-income countries, developing markets will likely
invest twice as much in generation capacity as Organisation
for Economic Co-operation and Development members.

The challenges facing electricity systems in need of greater

investment vary. In relatively wealthy OECD markets, policy-
makers need to maintain popular support for their related
objectives, and set up fair, transparent markets capable of
attracting the necessary interest. The most dramatic related
technological revolution will occur in energy storage - the
growing popularity of electric vehicles will be instrumental for
driving down storage costs, and ultimately enabling it to
replace the thermal capacity that currently backs up
(potentially intermittent) renewable energy generation. In
non-OECD markets, there will likely be more of an emphasis
on developing the right strategic roadmap for electricity
systems, and on developing the regulatory frameworks
necessary to support unprecedented levels of investment.
The biggest challenge for these markets will be to attract
the necessary capital by looking beyond domestic sources
and tapping global markets. This in turn will likely require a
greater number of effective public-private partnerships.

Related insight areas: Electricity, Future of Mobility, Private

Investors, Digital Economy and Society, Environment and
Natural Resource Security, Blended Finance, Sustainable
Development

Future of Energy Briefing, April 2019

 Latest knowledge

Council on Foreign Relations Nature

China's Green Investments Won't
Undo Its Environmental Damage to
Latin America
26 April 2019
While solar panels, electric buses, and wind turbines
emerge, fossil fuel usage and demand for commodities
continue to degrade Latin America’s environment.
Ocean uproar: saving marine life from a
barrage of noise
10 April 2019
Ship engines, underwater blasts, sonar and oil drilling are
filling the seas with sound. Researchers are now trying to
pin down the damage humanity’s growing acoustic
footprint has on ocean life.

Rocky Mountain Institute International Institute for Sustainable

How Community-Scale Solar Can Development
Change Our Energy System Prescribing the right medicine for
24 April 2019 India's troubled coal sector
08 April 2019
This post was originally published on Organic Valley’s
Rootstock blog site. Where and how we source our Instead of further subsidizing struggling coal infrastructure,
energy has a huge impact on our lives, from the food we India can begin to reallocate limited public funds to
eat to the air we breathe, which is why a shift... Read ensure a fair transition for workers and communities.
More The post How Community-Scale Solar Can Change
Our Energy System appeared first on Rocky Mountain
Institute .

World Economic Forum

We need to protect 30% of the planet
by 2030. This is how we can do it
22 April 2019

The Global Deal for Nature sets ambitious conservation

targets to address the extinction crisis and help us avert
catastrophic climate change, before it’s too late.

Wharton School of the University of

Pennsylvania - Knowledge@Wharton
Why Toyota Is Betting on Hybrid
Technology
16 April 2019

Toyota announced it will offer other automakers free

licenses to its patents on vehicle electrification, especially
hybrid vehicles. Is it a smart move?

Project Syndicate
Our Zero-Emission Future
15 April 2019

A low-cost shift to clean energy is now feasible

for every region of the world, owing to the plummeting
costs of solar and wind power, and breakthroughs in
energy storage. The total system costs of renewable
energy, including transmission and storage, are now
roughly on par with fossil fuels.

Future of Energy Briefing, April 2019

Energy Access

Failing to expand access to clean energy sources will imperil the environment and
human lives

Ensuring access to energy is a moral imperative. Nearly half

of the global population is affected by energy poverty, and
the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals
established in 2015 make energy access a priority. The
roughly 1 billion people without access to reliable, modern
electricity and the roughly 3 billion people who lack access
to clean, safe cooking fuels need more help to escape from
poverty. Enabling access to clean energy is also a climate
imperative; global emissions must peak before 2030, even
as energy access is dramatically accelerated in the
developing world. And, clean energy access is an element of
energy security - because a lack of access functions like a
threat multiplier. In 2017, access to electricity in sub-
Saharan Africa expanded faster than population growth for
the first time in history; however, a continued lack of access
to clean cooking fuels contributed to more than 4 million
premature deaths during that same year. Still, overall
progress has been made in expanding energy access via
sustainable sources - wind and solar accounted for more
than half of all capacity additions in emerging markets for
the first time ever in 2017, according to BloombergNEF’s
report Climatescope 2018.

There is a massive urban-rural divide in terms of access to

energy for cooking and electricity. Nearly 87% of the people
in the world going without electricity live in rural areas,
according to a report published by the International
Renewable Energy Agency in 2018. Working towards
ensuring universal access is an enormous wealth creation
opportunity. Mini- and micro-grid companies like Powerhive,
Mera Gao, and Husk Power Systems have raised hundreds
of millions of dollars in private funding, and companies with
business models that rely in part on expanding power access
like Facebook and Microsoft are investing in related
initiatives. In total, foreign direct investment aimed at
supporting clean energy in emerging markets rose to $21.4
billion in 2017, from $13.9 billion the previous year,
according to the Climatescope 2018 report. While efforts to
expand access have historically been made through
extensions of centralized systems, this is changing - as the
number of decentralized solar home systems, solar irrigation
systems, and microgrids in use expands.

Related insight areas: Electricity, Global Risks, Supply Chain

and Transport, Long-Term Investing, Infrastructure and
Development, Private Investors, Cities and Urbanization,
Human Rights, Environment and Natural Resource Security,
Sustainable Development, Values

10

Future of Energy Briefing, April 2019

 Latest knowledge

Mother Jones The Conversation

Study finds North American drilling When people downsize to tiny houses,
boom is threatening efforts to slow they adopt more environmentally
climate change friendly lifestyles
26 April 2019 10 April 2019

More than half of the world’s new oil and gas pipelines
are located in North America, with a boom in US oil and
gas drilling set to deliver a major blow to efforts to slow
climate change, a new report has found.
MIT Technology Review
The economic argument behind the
Green New Deal
24 April 2019
Economist Mariana Mazzucato explains how rethinking
industrial policy could be key to tackling climate change.
International Institute for Strategic Studies
US–Iran tensions and the oil factor
23 April 2019
With the US to end its sanctions waivers on
Iran’s oil exports on 2 May, Mahsa Rouhi reflects on
potential Iranian responses, including the shutting down of
the Strait of Hormuz – a critical passageway for the
world’s oil exports.
Research shows that moving from a larger dwelling to a
tiny home can change behavior in surprising ways.
International Institute for Sustainable
Development
In Search of Just Transition: Examples
From Around the World
08 April 2019
What is a just transition? Essentially, it’s a balancing act.
From an environmental perspective, we know we need
cleaner energy to meet Paris Agreement goals and avoid
the most catastrophic effects of climate change. From an
economic perspective, those cleaner energy options are
consistently dropping in price, making them increasingly
more attractive than fossil fuels (e.g., solar energy prices
have fallen more than 80 per cent over the past decade
alone according to the International Renewable Energy
Agency).

Foreign Policy
Russia’s Gas Web Ensnares Europe
17 April 2019

New pipeline projects throughout the Middle

East could boost Russian influence there while also
ensuring the country’s role as the prime supplier of energy
to…

Harvard Kennedy School - Belfer Center for

Science and International Affairs
The Role of Electric Vehicles in
Decarbonizing China’s Transportation
Sector
15 April 2019

This paper focuses on the deep decarbonization of the

transportation sector. The first part of the paper provides
an assessment of China’s efforts to stimulate the rapid
deployment of electric vehicles. The second part analyzes
the CO2 equivalent reductions from a 20% electric vehicle
deployment scenario. It concludes that under most
assumptions, emissions will be reduced, but the total
reduction will be less than many people believe due to the
carbon intensity of battery manufacturing.

11

Future of Energy Briefing, April 2019

Energy Technology and Innovation

New ideas and innovation are needed to counter the threat of climate change

If global warming continues at its current pace, a 1.5°C

temperature rise above pre-industrial levels could occur as
soon as 2030 - triggering catastrophic drought, floods and
poverty, according to a 2018 Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change report. Renewable energy technologies are
desperately needed to help address this situation. While the
cost of solar energy decreased to $0.37 per watt by 2017,
from $79 per watt in 1976, turbine costs have fallen by more
than 30% since 2010, and battery costs fell by more than
70% between 2010 and 2016 - all enabled by technological
advancements. This has created opportunities in regions
without centralized electricity systems; lithium-ion batteries
have been deployed to help meet peak demand in places
like Australia, for example, providing alternatives to gas
“peaker” plants. And while some countries are now revisiting
the use of coal, more are discussing phasing coal out
completely. Bloomberg NEF has estimated that coal will
shrink to 11% of global electricity generation by 2050, from
38% currently. Many countries have also set targets for
phasing out fossil-fuel-powered cars. By 2018, about half of
the cars being sold in Norway were electric.

However, only a small percentage of traditional energy

providers’ revenue is now being invested in low-carbon
energy alternatives. And there are other potential
drawbacks; conventional lithium-ion batteries used in
electric cars, for example, contain cobalt - the mining of
which has been marred by the use of child labour, and by
health and safety hazards. This has prompted interest in
finding alternative technologies to reduce or even replace
the cobalt used in batteries. Multi-stakeholder initiatives like
the World Economic Forum’s Global Battery Alliance provide
platforms to address such challenges. While some progress
has been made, the adoption of technologies that can help
replace fossil fuels must become more widespread. This
calls for greater support for research and development in
both academia and the private sector. A new workforce has
to be trained for the clean energy transition, and augmented
by resources like artificial intelligence as it pushes forward
on scientific discovery.

Related insight areas: Future of Consumption, Electricity,

Innovation, Artificial Intelligence and Robotics, Workforce
and Employment, Information Technology, Education and
Skills

12

Future of Energy Briefing, April 2019

 Latest knowledge

The Conversation VoxEU

Insights from Uganda on why solar Next-generation technologies and the
street lights make sense future of trade
25 April 2019 10 April 2019

Solar lights can help local governments drastically reduce
their spending on electricity bills.
Wharton School of the University of
Pennsylvania - Knowledge@Wharton
Why Oil Markets Are Changing
23 April 2019
Summertime gasoline price increases are normal, but
today's oil markets are undergoing fundamental change,
according to experts.
Wharton School of the University of
Pennsylvania - Knowledge@Wharton
Want to Build a Smart City? Here Are
Some Strategies That Work
19 April 2019
Collaborative platforms, sustainability, public-private
partnerships and data analytics are critical for developing
smart and inclusive cities, notes TCS’s Seeta Hariharan.
The history of trade reflects the ongoing march of
technological innovation. This column argues that despite
today’s increased trade tensions, rising nationalism, and
slowdown in global goods trade, globalisation is not in
retreat. Instead, it is entering a new chapter that is being
driven by flows of information and data, as well as
technological changes that are reshaping industry value
chains.
International Institute for Sustainable
Development
Sustainability and Second Life: The
case for cobalt and lithium recycling
02 April 2019
Adopting recycling in the mining sector and in supply
chains is essential to ensure the transition to a low-carbon
economy is responsible and sustainable for the longer
term.

International Institute for Sustainable

Development
Is Vanadium the “Valyrian Steel” of the
Energy Transition?
16 April 2019

In Game of Thrones, a sword forged out of Valyrian steel is

recognized for its unparallel strength and light weight. It is
this advantage that denotes it as one of Westeros’s most
sought-after materials. In the real world, its equivalent just
might be vanadium.

Observer Research Foundation

Earth Talks | How Green is my
manifesto? Expert analysis
12 April 2019

ORF presents – ‘EARTH TALKS ‘ - A weekly conversation

with citizens, policymakers, and politicians on issues
related to climate, sustainability, and biodiversity. Curated
and anchored by award-winning environment journalist
Bahar Dutt.

13

Future of Energy Briefing, April 2019

Future of Energy Demand

Greater efficiency means global energy demand has slowed, though China’s
consumption continues to spike

Expanding populations, growing economies, and improving

efficiency are all having a fundamental impact on energy
demand. Significant change will occur in the next few
decades, as the global population is expected to grow from
about 7.6 billion to nearly 10 billion by 2050 (per a United
Nations estimate), and global GDP is expected to nearly
triple by that year (according to a report published by PwC).
However, overall energy demand growth has actually been
slowing - due to a global shift towards more services-driven
economies, and to technology and process improvements
that boost both productivity and efficiency. The specific
shape of energy demand depends on geographic location. In
the year 2000, for example, 40% of global demand was
generated in Europe and North America while 20% was
generated in developing economies in Asia. By 2040, the
situation will be completely reversed - as China becomes by
far the biggest energy consumer. This has implications for
the production of primary energy, for trade, and for
renewables and alternative fuels as countries try to secure
their respective energy futures.

Even as global energy demand growth slows, total demand

is nonetheless expected to increase by more than 25% by
2040. Taking into account current and planned policies, and
modelled under the International Energy Agency’s “New
Policies Scenario,” an additional $2 trillion in annual
investment will be required in new energy supply. Demand
for natural gas in particular will likely increase, as a means
to deal with the intermittency of renewables and with
increasing demand from sectors like aviation, shipping, and
petrochemicals. Managing this demand growth while also
achieving the Paris Agreement on climate change’s target
of limiting warming to less than 2°C above pre-industrial
temperatures (especially in light of a more recent, 2018
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report warning
about the consequences of just 1.5°C of warming) will
require a rethinking of the supply and use of energy. It also
calls for better solutions for mitigating greenhouse gas
emissions; carbon capture utilization and storage technology
will likely have to play a significant role in the global energy
system of the future.

Related insight areas: Environment and Natural Resource

Security, China, Future of Economic Progress, Oil and Gas,
Digital Economy and Society, Climate Change, Electricity,
Emerging Multinationals, Cities and Urbanization

14

Future of Energy Briefing, April 2019

 Latest knowledge

World Economic Forum International Institute for Sustainable

Hydrogen power is here to stay. How Development
do we convince the public that it’s South Africa: Is a transition away from
safe? coal just around the corner?
25 April 2019 09 April 2019

It's a clean and viable replacement for fossil fuels in Workers at the Hendrina coal power station in
transport, energy storage and power-to-gas applications. Mpumalanga, South Africa, are unsure if they will soon be
But public doubts around hydrogen safety are contributing joining the former workers at the nearby Optimum coal
to the delay in its adoption around the world. plant, protesting outside a shuttered plant.

Wharton School of the University of MIT Technology Review

Pennsylvania - Knowledge@Wharton
China’s Blockchain Dominance: Can
the U.S. Catch Up?
23 April 2019
By all accounts, China is leading the world in the use and
development of blockchain technology. What will it take
for the U.S. to compete?
Why two wheels are better than four in
India’s electric vehicle push
08 April 2019
EVs represent a tiny share of the nation’s auto market,
but efforts to electrify scooters and rickshaws may begin
to change that.

World Resources Institute

This Month in Climate Science:
Migrating Mosquitoes, Marine
Heatwaves, More Hay Fever
18 April 2019

This Month in Climate Science summarizes significant

new research and provides a clearer picture of the threats
posed by climate change. Studies published in March
2019 reveal the spread of mosquito-borne diseases,
dolphin-killing heat waves, earlier allergy seasons and
more.

International Institute for Sustainable

Development
Engaging the Private Sector in National
Adaptation Planning Processes
16 April 2019

This study aims to offer guidance to governments and

their partners on how to engage the private sector in the
NAP process.

Brookings
Advancing inclusion through clean
energy jobs
11 April 2019

Beyond its environmental benefits, the clean energy

economy transition will bring higher paying job
opportunities with less barriers for workers to access.

15

Future of Energy Briefing, April 2019

References
1. Energy System Governance
Can Capitalism Beat Climate Change?, Project Syndicate, www.project-
syndicate.org
How a Japanese system can help African cities adapt to climate change,
The Conversation, theconversation.com
The Arab Spring’s Second Chance, Project Syndicate, www.project-
syndicate.org
Banking on the Future of Cryptocurrencies, Wharton School of the
University of Pennsylvania - Knowledge@Wharton,
knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu
Getting better all the time: The benefits of learning for decarbonisation,
Bruegel, bruegel.org
The World Bank Must Change Course, Project Syndicate, www.project-
syndicate.org
How to Liberate Algeria’s Economy, Project Syndicate, www.project-
syndicate.org
2. Energy Finance and Investment
How Can Blockchain Improve Sustainability in Mining?, International
Institute for Sustainable Development, www.iisd.org
How electrification can supercharge the energy transition, World Economic
Forum, www.weforum.org
Climate Action Now: 3 U.S. States, 3 Cities and Puerto Rico Lead the Way,
World Resources Institute, www.wri.org
What Peru’s government officials think of collective titling, Center for
International Forestry Research, forestsnews.cifor.org
The Implications of Eastern Mediterranean Gas for Turkey, The German
Marshall Fund of the United States, www.gmfus.org
Building Trust in Human Centric Artificial Intelligence, GovLab - Living
Library, thelivinglib.org
Toward a Global Green New Deal, Project Syndicate, www.project-
syndicate.org
3. Future of Power Systems
China's Green Investments Won't Undo Its Environmental Damage to Latin
America, Council on Foreign Relations, www.cfr.org
How Community-Scale Solar Can Change Our Energy System, Rocky
Mountain Institute, www.organicvalley.coop
We need to protect 30% of the planet by 2030. This is how we can do it,
World Economic Forum, www.weforum.org
Why Toyota Is Betting on Hybrid Technology, Wharton School of the
University of Pennsylvania - Knowledge@Wharton,
knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu
Our Zero-Emission Future, Project Syndicate, www.project-syndicate.org
Ocean uproar: saving marine life from a barrage of noise, Nature,
www.nature.com
Prescribing the right medicine for India's troubled coal sector, International
Institute for Sustainable Development, iisd.org
16
Future of Energy Briefing, April 2019
4. Energy Access
Study finds North American drilling boom is threatening efforts to slow
climate change, Mother Jones, www.motherjones.com
The economic argument behind the Green New Deal, MIT Technology
Review, www.technologyreview.com
US–Iran tensions and the oil factor, International Institute for Strategic
Studies, www.iiss.org
Russia’s Gas Web Ensnares Europe, Foreign Policy, foreignpolicy.com
The Role of Electric Vehicles in Decarbonizing China’s Transportation
Sector, Harvard Kennedy School - Belfer Center for Science and
International Affairs, www.belfercenter.org
When people downsize to tiny houses, they adopt more environmentally
friendly lifestyles, The Conversation, theconversation.com
In Search of Just Transition: Examples From Around the World,
International Institute for Sustainable Development, iisd.org
5. Energy Technology and Innovation
Insights from Uganda on why solar street lights make sense, The
Conversation, theconversation.com
Why Oil Markets Are Changing, Wharton School of the University of
Pennsylvania - Knowledge@Wharton, knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu
Want to Build a Smart City? Here Are Some Strategies That Work, Wharton
School of the University of Pennsylvania - Knowledge@Wharton,
knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu
Is Vanadium the “Valyrian Steel” of the Energy Transition?, International
Institute for Sustainable Development, www.iisd.org
Earth Talks | How Green is my manifesto? Expert analysis, Observer
Research Foundation, www.youtube.com
Next-generation technologies and the future of trade, VoxEU, voxeu.org
Sustainability and Second Life: The case for cobalt and lithium recycling,
International Institute for Sustainable Development, www.iisd.org
6. Future of Energy Demand
Hydrogen power is here to stay. How do we convince the public that it’s
safe?, World Economic Forum, www.weforum.org
China’s Blockchain Dominance: Can the U.S. Catch Up?, Wharton School
of the University of Pennsylvania - Knowledge@Wharton,
knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu
This Month in Climate Science: Migrating Mosquitoes, Marine Heatwaves,
More Hay Fever, World Resources Institute, www.wri.org
Engaging the Private Sector in National Adaptation Planning Processes,
International Institute for Sustainable Development, www.iisd.org
Advancing inclusion through clean energy jobs, Brookings,
www.brookings.edu
South Africa: Is a transition away from coal just around the corner?,
International Institute for Sustainable Development, iisd.org
Why two wheels are better than four in India’s electric vehicle push, MIT
Technology Review, www.technologyreview.com
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