ACI Airport Statistics and Forecasting Workshop

AVIATION STATISTICS & DATA: A VITAL TOOL

FOR THE DECISION MAKING PROCESS

Narjess Teyssier
ICAO
Chief Economic Analysis & Policy Section

London, 3rd March 2011

 Content

Statistics

Data &
Trends
Forecasts

Derived
Products
 Monitoring air transport development:
Statistics, analysis and forecasts

Safety
MARKET
ANALYSES FORECASTING

Sustainable
Air transport
Development Environment

Security
STATISTICS

ICAO : an independent and reliable source of information on civil aviation matters

Civil Aviation : the global picture

2.5 Billion passengers

 ICAO Statistics Programme foundations

Chicago Convention (Art. 54, 55, and 67) 67)

Each contracting State undertakes that its
international airlines shall, in accordance with
requirements laid down by the Council, file with the
Council traffic reports, cost statistics and financial
Council statements showing among other things all receipts
Air Transport and the sources thereof.
Assembly
Committee Assembly Resolutions (A37
(A37--20, App. B):
B):

Whereas the development of ICAO’s validation
Statistics Statistics and storage Integrated Statistical Database
Division Panel provides Contracting States and other
users with an efficient online system for
the retrieval of statistical data;

Requests the Council, calling on national
experts in the relevant disciplines as
required, to examine on a regular basis the
statistical data collected by ICAO and etc…
5
Aviation statistics collection,
dissemination and use : a value chain
 12 existing reporting forms

COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIERS STATISTICS

 A Commercial air carrier traffic by carrier
 A-S Total traffic of all commercial air carriers of a State
 B On-Flight Origin and Destination
 C Traffic by Flight Stage
 D Fleet and Personnel
 EF Financial Data
AIRPORTS
 I Airport traffic by airport
 I-S Total traffic of all the airports in the territory of a State
 J Financial data
AIR NAVIGATION SERVICES PROVIDERS
 K Financial data
 L Traffic

CIVIL AIRCRAFT ON REGISTER

 H Number of aircraft in the register 7
Most popular series

Match Multi-
Multi-Stage and single Leg
OFOD Flight Stages
pax A-B B-C C-D
A-B 120 120
A-C 50 50 50
A-D 30 30 30 30
B-C 80 80
B-D 25 25 25
C-D 60 60

TOTAL 365 200 185 500

8
 STA/10 Outputs

 23-27 Nov 2009: Tenth Session of the Statistics Division (STA/10)

 RECOMMENDED AMENDMENTS IN THE CURRENT AIR

TRANSPORT REPORTING FORMS:
 PARTIAL REMOVAL OF THE OFOD PUBLICATION RESTRICTIONS
 A DOPTION OF A STATISTICAL CLASSIFICATION
 POSTING OF A LIST OF WORLDWIDE LCCS
 NEED TO NOMINATE DGCA´S FOCAL POINTS FOR STATISTICS, ETC..

 RECOMMENDED NEW DATA COLLECTIONS AND

PROCESSES IMPLEMENTATION
 To implement a form on aviation personnel licenses and training

 To introduce a new collection process on fuel consumption by

commercial air carriers
 ETC…
 Internal and external surveys

Research was required amongst existing:

Internal users to ICAO STA site (free access) and
External users to ICAOData.com
Research objectives:

 Understand which information is important in users’ job roles

 Explore how the data accessed from both sites are used
 Identify any improvements which users would like to see
Methodology
 An online survey was emailed to around 1000 users and subscribers
 An incentive of entry into a free prize draw was offered to boost response
 External users: a 10% response rate & Internal users: a 21% response rate
 Some general comments

“ICAO secure site is very important for ICAO membership

countries…there they can find many important and useful information’’
“The content is quite useful. The reason it doesn't score higher is the confusing
layout and difficulty finding what you want.

“Very frustrating when trying to access data at an aggregated level.”

“Data has proven not to be particularly helpful as at times quite unreliable”

“Great source of air transport information, very useful for data analyses.”

“I find it invaluable for my research so I am sure my peers would find it

equally useful”

“Very useful information…the data collected and disseminated by

ICAO are very useful to the Aviation Statistics Centre of Canada as
they complement our own aviation programme”
 Usage of the data

Data from ICAO are most often used

External users to carry out industry analysis and market studies
Carry out air transport industry
79%
analysis and market studies
Internal users
Produce reports for internal
32%
customers

Produce reports for external Carry out air transport industry

27% analysis and market studies 62%
customers

Import ICAO data into own

23%
database Produce reports for internal
customers 71%
Use to help generate sales /
16%
business leads

Produce reports for external

customers 26%
Academic purposes 11%

Other 4%
Import ICAO data into own
database 25%
Spontaneous response

Other: To construct a model, Security & Safety analyses

Other 11% Forecasts
To understand safety issues
Bilateral negotiations
 Users´ Opinion

External users Internal users

Fair Poor Excellent

Poor 14% 2% 18%
Fair 4% Excellent
18%
29%

Good Good
49% 66%

Around 80% rate both sites as excellent or good

 Rating of different types of information
according to importance
Internal & External users
Airline and airport traffic statistics are equally essential for most respondents
Essential Important (but not essential) Not useful (but I am interested) Not useful or interesting

Airline Traffic Statistics 66% 23% 10%

Airline Traffic Statistics by route (Origin / Destination) 55% 32% 12% 1%

Airline Traffic Statistics by route (Traffic by Flight stage) 43% 37% 18% 2%

Airline Financial Results 30% 32% 29% 9%

Airline Fleet Information - Utilisation 32% 39% 24% 5%

Airline Fleet Information - Fleet size 30% 42% 25% 3%

Airport traffic information 65% 26% 8% 1%

Airport financial information 10% 27% 35% 6%

Airline Personnel and remuneration statistics 18% 31% 36% 15%

 Suggested Improvements to both sites

New data collection: General comments referred to improving the quality

of data already available by:
 Up-to-date Bilateral Air
Services Agreements (ASAs)
Fuel consumption by a/c type
 CO2 emissions by air carrier
Country breakdown on
incidents and accidents
Traffic statistics for General
Aviation
Additional information requested:
 ICAO training programmes schedule
•.Completing and updating the missing data for airlines
and airports (for consistency purposes)
• Providing the recent years for airlines data
Data processing:
 Improve set up and layout of the
websites, seen as old-fashioned
and not user friendly
Include pictures, graphs, etc..
 Send emails to users every time
new data are available
 Install an online application that
make calculation easier”

List of focal points in each DGCA

Layout and data processing

Current layout of the statistics site

The projected new ICAO data website
 ICAO Statistics Programme
Why do we need Statistics?

1 – Monitor ICAO Strategic Objectives

 Air travel safety rates
 The environmental impact on air transport
 The sustainability of air transport development
 Fuel consumption and efficiency evolution

70
AAGR 1998-2008
65 +2.5 %
60
55
Fuel burn

50
45
40
AAGR 1998-2008
35
-1.7 %
30
25 Fuel consumed (USG) Lts per 100 ATK
20
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Source: ICAO based on OAG timetable

19
 ICAO Statistics Programme
Why do we need Statistics?

1 – Monitor ICAO Strategic Objectives

 Air travel safety rates
 The environmental impact on air transport
 The sustainability of air transport development

2 – Analyse the air transport market

 Regional traffic overview for 2010

North America Europe

Intal Traffic: 6.2% Intal Traffic: 6.7%
Dom Traffic: 1.5% Dom Traffic: 12.2%
Asia Pacific
Intal Traffic: 12.9%
Dom Traffic: 15.1%
Middle East
Latin America Intal Traffic: 21%
Intal Traffic: 11.4% Dom Traffic: 3.6%
Dom Traffic: 15.9%

Africa
World Intal Traffic: 10%
Traffic: 8% Dom Traffic: 4%

Capacity: 3.7%
Load Factor: +2 Pt
 Market shares* achieved

International traffic represents 60% of the total passenger traffic

International passenger
traffic
traffic**
** Domestic passenger
traffic**
traffic**
Africa *
North America 3% Africa *
17% 1%
Asia Pacific
Middle East Asia Pacific North 30%
10% 25% America
55%
Latin America Europe 8%
4%
Europe 41%
Latin
Middle East America 5%
1%

* Market share of the scheduled traffic of the airlines domiciled in the region **Expressed in Revenue Passenger Kilometre
 Traffic recovery started in 2010,
despite the volcanic ash impact
Regional traffic* growth forecasts
4.4%
Preliminary 2010 Forecast 2011 Forecast 2012

World

North America

Middle East

Latin America

Europe

Asia-Pacific

Africa

0 2 4 6 8 10 12
RPKs Growt h in %

2000-2010
*Traffic of airlines domiciled in each region expressed in RPKs average
growth
Source: ICAO
 ICAO Statistics Programme
Why do we need Statistics?

1 – Monitor ICAO Strategic Objectives

 Air travel safety rates
 The environmental impact on air transport
 The sustainable air transport development

2 – Analyse the air transport market

3– Assess the impact of new regulations

 Air transport conducted under liberal arrangements

As a % of international scheduled services

Frequencies Country pairs
Number of frequencies
60% 50%
Number of country-pair routes

50%
40%

40%
30%
30%
20%
20%

10%
10%

0% 0%
1995 1999 2004 2009
Source : ICAO
 Toward more consolidation: Alliances,
Airlines´ mergers and acquisitions

Most well-known Non Aligned airlines

3 Major alliances grouping : more than 60% of the worldwide scheduled traffic
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