See discussions, stats, and author profiles for this publication at: https://www.researchgate.

net/publication/318259267

Ordinary Kriging and Spatial Autocorrelation Identification to Predict Peak

Ground Acceleration in Banda Aceh City, Indonesia

Conference Paper  in  Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing · September 2017

DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-67621-0_29

CITATIONS READS

0 251

4 authors, including:

Edy Irwansyah Bayu Kanigoro

Binus University Binus University
31 PUBLICATIONS   75 CITATIONS    24 PUBLICATIONS   40 CITATIONS   

SEE PROFILE SEE PROFILE

Some of the authors of this publication are also working on these related projects:

Image segmentation model using region growing algorithm for land cover identification and classification View project

Model for Earthquake Non-Engineered Building House Damage Hazard Determination View project

All content following this page was uploaded by Edy Irwansyah on 17 October 2017.

The user has requested enhancement of the downloaded file.

 Ordinary Kriging and Spatial Autocorrelation
Identification to Predict Peak Ground
Acceleration in Banda Aceh City, Indonesia

Rokhana D Bekti1 , Edy Irwansyah2 , Bayu Kanigoro2 , and Theodorick3

1
Department of Statistic, Institut Sains and Teknologi AKPRIND, Yogyakarta
55222, Indonesia
2
School of Computer Science, Bina Nusantara University, Jakarta 11480, Indonesia
3
Department of Statistic, Bina Nusantara University, Jakarta 11480, Indonesia
eirwansyah@binus.edu, bkanigoro@binus.edu

Abstract. Peak ground acceleration (PGA) is a measure of earthquake

acceleration in the ground. The prediction information about PGA is
important to minimize the effect of earthquake. The method for predic-
tion is Ordinary Kriging. It is geostatistic method used to predict data
in certain locations which have autocorrelation. The sample data used
in this research are PGA in Meuraxa, Banda Aceh 2006. The steps of
research methodology consist of autocorrelations identify by Moran’s I
and LISA, build semivariograms, and prediction by Ordinary Kriging.
The results is Ordinary Kriging can be applied to predict PGA. It was
shown by evaluate of mean and MSE value. According to mean value
of three prediction, all models (Gaussian, Spherical, and Exponential)
have mean 0,3534; 0,3584; and 0,3555 which approaches the actual PGA
mean 0.34. According to MSE value, it can be seen that all models have
small MSE or relatively closed to zero.

1 Introduction

There are some location in Indonesia which is vulnerable to natural disasters,

such as earthquake. Earthquake is an earth vibrant event which is caused by
a sudden explosion of energy inside earth. It is indicated by the cracks of rock
layers in earth crust [1]. Sumatera Island is one of the islands that experiences
earthquake regularly. It is caused by its position that is near to the path where
two tectonic plates collide. In the last six years, there are many earthquakes
that happen in Indonesia, the most terrifying one is Aceh Earthquake happened
in 2004, which is also followed by tsunami. The impact of the earthquake and
tsunami was severe loss of life and property, and severe environmental damage.
The most casualties as a result of earthquake followed by tsunami in Aceh are
110,229 people died, 12,123 people missing and 703,518 people evacuated [2].
The earthquake hazard assessment can be performed using the acceleration
value in the ground or peak ground acceleration (PGA) [2, 3]. PGA is a scale
used to measure the speed at ground level. According to Seismic Hazard Analysis
(PSHA) research, PGA in Aceh region is 0.3-0.4g. This number is quite high and
it explains that Aceh region is potentially going to experience earthquake in the
future. Then, the prediction information about PGA is important to minimize
the effect of earthquake.
The information about PGA characteristic caused by earthquake can be ob-
tained from the records of earthquake events in the past. There are some meth-
ods for calculate PGA value, such as using the attenuation function [3–5]. This
method can be used if there are the data about distance to the location of epicen-
ter, depth of the earthquake, and magnitude. The problem was how to predict
PGA in certain locations which no information about it. The spatial statistics
methods can be used to perform it.
The current spatial statistic and geostatistic have been developed and able
to both explain and analyze variance caused by natural and artificial (human-
made) phenomenon in air, under sea, and on earth surface. Geostatistic has been
applied in many fields, one of them is geology. Geostatistic is used to predict
data at locations that are yet to be measured [6]. Spatial statistics perform
based on autocorrelation among locations. One of the prediction methods for
geostatistic is Kriging which used to utilize spatial interpolation in a certain
region to estimate values in other non-sampled regions. There are several Kriging
methods that are commonly used, such as Ordinary Kriging, CoKriging, and
Robust Kriging. Ordinary Kriging is use for one variable and can be use to
predict PGA. The research about kriging is [2, 7–9].
Based on the problems, the purpose of this research is to predict PGA in
Banda Aceh based on the desired location points. The method which used is
Ordinary Kriging. It predicts PGA based on spatial characteristics or autocor-
relation spatial among locations.

2 Autocorrelation Spatial and Ordinary Kriging

PGA value at one location has relationship with other locations. The location
which closed to earthquake epicenters relatively has high PGA. It was show
that there an autocorrelation among locations. It corresponds to the first law of
geography by Tobler, “Everything is related to everything else, but near things
are more related than distant things” [10]. Spatial method can be used to analyze
the autocorrelation in PGA. Spatial method is a method to get information
of observations influenced by space or location effect. The spatial methods for
identify autocorrelation spatial are Moran’s I and Local Indicator of Spatial
Association (LISA).
Moran’s I coefficient is used to test the spatial dependence or autocorrelation
between observations or location [11, 12]. The formula of Moran’s I is equation
(1).
 n P
P n
wij (xi − x̄)(xj − x̄)
n i=1 j=1
I= P
n P
n n
P (1)
wij (xj − x̄)2
i=1 j=1 i=1

The xi is the variable in location i, x̄ is mean of xi , wij is weighted of i and j

location, and n is the total locations. The value of Moran’s I is between −1 and
1
1. Value I > − n−1 is shows the positive autocorrelation and I < Io is shows the
negative autocorrelation [11].
LISA is used to identify autocorrelation in each local locations [12]. It use
the hypothesis test
H0 : Ii = 0 (no autocorrelation among location)
H1 : Ii 6= 0 (autocorrelation among location)
The conclusion is reject H0 if P-value of LISA test less than significance level α.
Ordinary Kriging is geostatistic method which is used to predict data in cer-
tain location. Consider that a random variable Z has been measured at sampling
points or locations, xi with i is location i = 1, 2, 3, . . . , n. It uses to predict or
estimate the value at a point x0 [7]. The data point Z(xi ) was obtained from
coordinate latitude and longitude in i location. The prediction is,
n
X
Ẑ(x0 ) = λi Z(xi ) (2)
i=1
where,
n
X
λi = 1 (3)
i=1

The value of λi is calculate from equations (4). C is covariance matrix among

data point xi and D is the vector of covariance between data point (xi ) and the
estimation target (x0 ).

λ = C −1 D (4)
The covariance matrix C can be estimated from variogram model, such as
Gaussian, Spherical, Pentaspherical, Exponential, or Stable exponential model.
In these models, there are parameter nugget, sill, and range. These parame-
ters can be performing by empirical semivariogram in Figure 1. Semivariogram
is a plot of semivariance versus lag. It commonly represented as a graph that
shows the variance in measure with distance between all pairs of sample loca-
tions. It also indicates spatial correlation in observations measured at sample
locations.The empirical semivariance can be calculated by equation (5) [6].
n(h)
1 X
γ̂ = [z(xi + h) − z(xi )]2 (5)
2n(h) α=1
 where z(xi ) and z(xi + h) are the actual values of Z at location (xi ) and
(xi + h), and n(h) is the number of paired comparisons at lag h.

Fig. 1. Semivariogram

3 Research Methodology

This research was use the secondary data. It was from Sengara research in 2006
about microzonation and hazard mapping of Meuraxa District - Banda Aceh
[13]. It was also from Meteorological, Climatological and Geophysics Agency.
The methods for predict PGA is Ordinary Kriging. All the calculation was done
by spdep and gstat package in R [14]. The steps are:

1. Descriptive analysis which is done to know the characteristic of PGA through

average, minimum value and maximum value of actual data.
2. Calculate Moran’s I by equation (1) and LISA to identify the autocorrelation
spatial.
3. Prediction by Ordinary Kriging.
(a) Partitions of data by randomly selected data, 17 were actual data and 3
were testing data.
(b) Determine empirical semivariogram, which its purpose to show the char-
acteristic of spatial correlation among locations and to determine the
initial value of sill, range and nugget.
(c) Determine empiric semivariogram, which consist of Gaussian, Spherical
and Exponential.
(d) Calculate the prediction of PGA.
(e) Calculate Mean Square Error (MSE) to evaluate the prediction.
4 Results and Discussion

Figure 2 shows PGA explorations, and the location of the actual (training) data
and testing data for predict the PGA. In this figure there are 17 actual data and
the 3 testing data. The data testing is locations 18,19, and 20. The PGA average
of actual data was 0,34. It implies that the average speed of earthquake from
earthquake epicenters toward towards the points surrounding area was 0,34. The
center point was at the latitude 5,553 and longitude 95,31. The minimum value
of PGA was 0.31 at latitude 5,541 and longitude 95,294. The maximum value
of PGA was 0.41 at latitude 5,562 and longitude 95,303. This figure also shown
that there were some locations have PGA which closes together. Example, PGA
in location 1, 7, 15, 17, 19, and 20 was between 0,33 and 0,35.

Fig. 2. PGA Exploration

Detection of spatial autocorrelation is very important to show the PGA re-

lathionship in every locations. It can perform by Moran’s I and LISA. The value
of Moran’s I by equation (1) was -0,038 and expected value of Moran’s I was
-0.053. Moran’s I was greather than expected. It means that there was an auto-
correlation between PGA in Meuraxa, Banda Aceh. The autocorrelation shows
that PGA has the cluster pattern based on neighbours location. Location which
neighborhood have the same characteristics of PGA. It was shown in Figure 2
and explained by the previous paragraph. Example is PGA in location 1, 7, 15,
17, 19, and 20. They relatively close to location 6, 9, 10, 12, and 14 which have
PGA between 0,40 and 0,42. Then location 4 or 16 which have PGA 0,36 and
0,37, was closed to location 9, 10, 12, and 14.
The results of LISA (see Table 1) was perfomed by P-value. It show the
detail autocorrelation characteristics for each location. P-value which less than
significance level (α) is show that the location has significant autocorrelation
with nearest locations. the The LISA test α = 10% and α = 20% conclude that
there were four and three locations which have significance autocorrelation with
nearest locations. That locations tend to have high PGA and close to each other.
The results of Moran’s I and LISA show that to predict PGA was better perform
by kriging which based on autocorrelation spatial.

Table 1. Result of LISA Test

Location Latitude Longitude PGA P value Location Latitude Longitude PGA P-Value
1 5.56363 95.2933 0.33 0.296 11 5.55568 95.2909 0.32 0.425
2 5.56092 95.2877 0.32 0.473 12 5.55081 95.2867 0.40 0.263
3 5.55884 95.2836 0.33 0.298 13 5.54139 95.2938 0.31 0.305
4 5.554 95.2851 0.36 0.139** 14 5.54278 95.2869 0.41 0.1998**
5 5.56243 95.3345 0.32 0.427 15 5.54744 95.2953 0.35 0.001*
6 5.55841 95.2887 0.41 0.176** 16 5.54643 95.3065 0.37 0.247
7 5.56149 95.2939 0.33 0.306 17 5.55637 95.2959 0.34 0.203
8 5.55558 95.3169 0.32 0.457 18 5.55603 95.3139 0.32 0.463
9 5.56201 95.3032 0.42 0.057* 19 5.55344 95.3072 0.35 0.001*
10 5.55874 95.3082 0.41 0.204 20 5.54974 95.3012 0.35 0.001*

The first Ordinary kriging process is build empirical semivariogram by equa-

tion (5). It uses to determine the characteristic of spatial correlation among loca-
tions, sill, range, and nugget. After that, semivariogram model will be created. It
consists of three models: Gaussian, Spherical, and Exponential. Semivariogram
model has different results on each of its plot (see Figure 3). The blue line shows
the semivariance model. The points show that there were 14 groups of data
and their spatial autocorrelation. The interpretation of this is very important to
identify the characteristic relationship among locations, as same as in Moran’s I
or LISA. Example in semivariogram, there was a point which has 3 locations. It
has the distance among locations about 0,003 and semivariance about 0.003. The
points which were at distance more than 0,005 have the constant semivariance
and it means that there were no autocorrelation among locations.
After determining semivariogram model, the next step was predicting the
PGA value. The prediction result of three testing data was shown in Table
2. Locations with 5,556 latitude and 95,314 longitude has the PGA prediction
0,3499; 0,3554; 0,3526 from Gaussian, Spherical, and Exponential models. The
results of prediction was evaluated by mean and MSE. According to mean value,
all models have mean 0,3534; 0,3584; and 0,3555 which approaches the actual
PGA mean 0.34. According to MSE value, it can be seen that all models have
small MSE or relatively closed to zero. This evaluation showed that ordinary
kriging give better prediction in PGA or earthquake case. This methods works
based on autocorrelation characteristics or spatial methods. The calculation was
from semivariance which performs autocorrelation among locations.

5 Conclusion
The Ordinary Kriging can be applied to predict Peak Ground Acceleration
(PGA). The methods perform prediction based on autocorrelation among lo-
 Gaussian
Spherical

4
4
(a) (b)
0.003 3 0.003 3
semivariance

semivariance
0.002 0.002
8 9 8
8 8 9
7 6 7 6
6 6
9 9
8 5 5
8
0.001 0.001

7 7

2 1 2 1
1 1 1 1
0.005 0.010 0.015 Exponential 0.005 0.010 0.015

distance distance

(c)
0.003 3
semivariance

0.002
8 9
8
7 6
6
9

8 5
0.001

2 1 11
0.005 0.010 0.015

distance

Fig. 3. Semivariogram Model: (a) Gaussian, (b) Spherical, and (c) Exponential

cations. The calculation was from semivariance which performs autocorrelation

among locations. Based on Moran’s I and LISA, it can be conclude that there was
an autocorrelation spatial among locations. According to mean value of three
prediction, all models (Gaussian, Spherical, and Exponential) have mean 0,3534;
0,3584; and 0,3555 which approaches the actual PGA mean 0.34. According to
MSE value, it can be seen that all models have small MSE or relatively closed
to zero. This evaluation showed that ordinary kriging give better prediction in
PGA.
 Table 2. PGA Ordinary Kriging

Locations Semivariogram Models

No
Latitude Longitude Gaussian Spherical Exponential
1 5.556025 95.31391 0.3499 0.3554 0.3526
2 5.553439 95.30772 0.3533 0.3613 0.3575
3 5.549742 95.30116 0.3569 0.3584 0.3563
Mean 0.3534 0.3584 0.3555
MSE 0.00095011 0.00145588 0.00115661

References
1. BMKG: Earthquake. http://www.bmkg.go.id/RBMKG Wilayah 10/ Ge-
ofisika/gempabumi.bmkg Accessed: 2012-12-12.
2. Irwansyah, E., Winarko, E., Rasjid, Z., Bekti, R.: Earthquake hazard zonation
using peak ground acceleration (pga) approach. In: Journal of Physics: Conference
Series. Volume 423., IOP Publishing (2013) 012067
3. Megawati, K., Pan, T.C.: Ground-motion attenuation relationship for the sumatran
megathrust earthquakes. Earthquake Engineering & Structural Dynamics 39(8)
(2010) 827–845
4. Youngs, R., Chiou, S.J., Silva, W., Humphrey, J.: Strong ground motion attenua-
tion relationships for subduction zone earthquakes. Seismological Research Letters
68(1) (1997) 58–73
5. Lin, P.S., Lee, C.T.: Ground-motion attenuation relationships for subduction-
zone earthquakes in northeastern taiwan. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of
America 98(1) (2008) 220–240
6. Fischer, M.M., Getis, A.: Handbook of applied spatial analysis: software tools,
methods and applications. Springer Science & Business Media (2009)
7. Davis, E., Ierapetritou, M.: A kriging method for the solution of nonlinear programs
with black-box functions. AIChE Journal 53(8) (2007) 2001–2012
8. Eldeiry, A.A., Garcia, L.A.: Comparison of ordinary kriging, regression kriging,
and cokriging techniques to estimate soil salinity using landsat images. Journal of
Irrigation and Drainage Engineering 136(6) (2010) 355–364
9. Kumar, V., et al.: Kriging of groundwater levels–a case study. Journal of Spatial
Hydrology 6(1) (2006)
10. Anselin, L., Rey, S.J.: Perspectives on spatial data analysis. In: Perspectives on
Spatial Data Analysis. Springer (2010) 1–20
11. Bekti, R.: Sutikno. spatial durbin model to identify influential factors of diarrhea.
J. Math. Stat 8 (2012) 396–402
12. Lee, J., Wong, D.W.: Statistical analysis with ArcView GIS. John Wiley & Sons
(2001)
13. Sengara, D.I.W.: Microzonation and hazard mapping of meuraxa district-banda
aceh. (2009)
14. Bivand, R., Pebesma, E.: Gomez-Rubio, V.(2008) Applied Spatial Data Analysis
with R. Springer, New York

View publication stats