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To: Martin Juckes <m.n.juckes@rl.ac.uk>
Subject: Re: Mitrie: Bristlecones
Date: Thu Nov 16 17:21:25 2006
Martin
This last point is likely true (though CO2 began to rise earlier than the 1960s
and the
authors of the original paper believed that the high elevation (and concomitant
low CO2
partial pressure) may have amplified the response to small concentration
changes. There is
also the possibility that a synergistic increase in water-use (and possibly
nitrogen use)
efficiency could have contributed .
However, I agree that the rapid growth increase is most likely a result of a
change in the
proportion of net photosynthetic production potential (ie needle mass) relative
to the area
of living cambium that could occur as a tree shifts from "normal" to strip bark
form .If
this changes suddenly , as growth occurs only along a small strip rather than
around the
whole circumference (I know this is oversimplified) then you could easily get
this apparent
change in growth rate . BUT , if this is seen synchronously in many trees it
would be hard
to believe that this was the cause. To look at this would require a detail
examination of
all the data (in relation to the precise sample geometry) . Changing
precipitation trends ,
such as occurred pre- and post the mid 1970s will also confuse things .
Thanks Jan and Rob also for this discussion.
At 17:14 16/11/2006, Keith Briffa wrote:
--
Professor Keith Briffa,
Climatic Research Unit
University of East Anglia
Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K.
Phone: +44-1603-593909
Fax: +44-1603-507784
[5]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/
--
Professor Keith Briffa,
Climatic Research Unit
University of East Anglia
Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K.
Phone: +44-1603-593909
Fax: +44-1603-507784
[6]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/
References
1. http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/pubs/salzer2005/salzer2005.html
2. mailto:m.n.juckes@rl.ac.uk
3. http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/
4. http://www.wsl.ch/staff/jan.esper
5. http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/
6. http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/