Long Range Forecast for Summer Monsoon 2019, 3rd June 2019

Anomaly of 850 hPa geo-potential height from 1st April to 31st May 2019 shows an anti-cyclone
is located between 010E-045E/040S and cyclonic circulation is located between 060E-090E/40S,
trough extends up to 25S. For High-Low combination 2.0 points can be given. Another anti
cyclone is located between 095E-120E/40S for which 1.0 point can be given. Another anti
cyclone is located over Nino 3.4 i.e. over East Pacific between 120W-170W for which 0.5 point
can be given. There is no negative point. Total points come to 3.5 for which “Active Normal
Rainfall” (101%) can be forecast during this year Summer Monsoon with ±06% error. This LRF is
based on my research article published in IGU journal in 2016 and an upgraded research article
submitted for publication in 2019. This year Bihar and Jharkhand sub-divisions may get normal
rainfall (-19% or more), the research article is under study. On the same synoptic situations
Bengal, East U.P., Uttrakhand, Konkan and Goa, Gujarat Region, and Rajasthan may get normal
rainfall. For other subdivisions, forecast is not clear from this study.

Vinod Kumar, Scientist ‘E’ (retired), IMD,

Ashok Nagar, Kankarbagh, Patna: 800020, Email: vinodmanjusingh@gmail.com