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Joe 2018 9229 PDF
Joe 2018 9229 PDF
China
2East China Branch of State Grid Corporation of China, Shanghai, 200122, People's Republic of China
E-mail: willzsx@sjtu.edu.cn
Abstract: High-penetration renewable energy and AC/DC hybrid network are two main basic characteristics of future power
systems. Evaluating different networks' structure adaptability is extremely important for the power system to keep economical,
safe, reliable and flexible. Firstly, the basic characteristic and the definition of network structure adaptability are given under the
background of strong randomness. On this basis, several probable indexes of structure adaptability are proposed. After that, a
practical calculation method is put forward, in which the Monte Carlo simulation method and the optimal economic dispatch
model are used. Case studies are carried out on the modified IEEE 30-bus system, and the simulation results show that the
proposed indexes can effectively reflect the adaptability of different network structures with the integration of high-penetration
renewable energy.
N ∫ +∞
xiφl(xi) dxi Dmax
PEBLR =
1
∑
Ni=1
−∞
Si, max
, i = 1, 2...N (1) φZ (z) = ∫ 0
φ(D)φZ (z D)dD (8)
Dmax
∫
where xi, φl(xi) and Si,max respectively denote power flow,
probability density function and transferring capacity of branch PAPLS, 2 = φZ (z)dz (9)
−∞
line. And N counts for branch number in this paper.
where φX and φY are the probability density function of total
3.2 Comprehensive fluctuation rate of branch line (PCFRB) generation output and total demand in need. The marks ⊕ and ㊀
PCFRB refers to the ratio that totally combines factual fluctuation take the symbol of convolution difference and convolution sum. S
and L are respectively sets of electrical supply equipment as well as
with maximal fluctuation, where the former is able to be computed
demand equipment. φz(z) is the probability density function of
by variance:
remaining supply power. Ultimately, PAPLS is computed as the sum
N of PAPLS,1 and PAPLS,2.
∑ El(xi2) − [El(xi)]2
i=1
PCFRB = N , i = 1, 2...N (2)
2
∑ max { Si, max − El(xi) , El(xi) 2} 3.4 Absence consumption probability of renewable energy
i=1
(PACRE)
∫
+∞
PACRE considers about the consumption ability under structure
El(xi2) = xi2φi(xi)dxi (3)
−∞ restrictions and also can be computed by convolution method:
Z = X−Y
∫
+∞ (10)
El(xi) = xiφi(xi)dxi (4)
−∞
φZ = φX ΘφY = ( ⊕ φXi)Θ ( ⊕ φYi) (11)
i∈S i∈L
2
El(xi) is the expectation of transmission power and El(xi ) is the
Rmax
∫
expectation of the square.
2
El(xi2) − (El(xi))2 and max Si, max − El(xi) , El(xi) 2 , are φZ (z) = f (R)φZ (z R)dR (12)
0
respectively factual and maximal fluctuation of the ith branch line.
∫
+∞
where φ(D) is the probability density function of demand and D Pi j = Bi jθi j, i j ∈ li j (18)
refers to the total demand of power system. Dmax is the maximal
demand supplied with special transmission structure. The Pi j, min ≤ Pi j ≤ Pi j, max, i j ∈ li j (19)
computation method of it can refer to [10]. The simulation of
stochastic contingencies depends on Monte Carlo method by where di is the load-shedding of bus i. Pg,i, Pre,j and Pd,k are the
producing element state randomly based on the failure rate.
power of conventional generator, renewable energy generator and
As for the second condition, it only needs to consider about the
load. Pij, Bij are respectively the power flow and the admittance of
balance of supply and demand without structure limitation. We
employ convolution calculation based on the probability density to branch line lij. θij is the phase difference of bus i and j. Pij,min and
deal with the uncertainty of source and demand. For example, we Pij,max are the minimal and maximal branch power flow. Pg,min and
2 J. Eng.
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Pg,max are minimal and maximal output power of generator. Ng, Nr, occurred based on the contingency rate of generations and branch
Nb and lij are respectively sets of conventional generator, lines by means of roulette.
renewable energy generator, bus and branch line. Step4: Compute the maximal supply and consumption power.
Stage2: With the optimal load distribution d* computed from The limitation supply power of demand and consumption of
stage 1, this stage concentrates on maximal renewable energy renewable energy, are optimised through the maximal energy
consumption: supply model and maximal renewable energy consumption model.
Step5: Solve the optimal economic dispatch model. The specific
operation mode comes from the optimal economic dispatch model,
min ∑ ri (20) which takes the minimal operation cost, renewable energy
i ∈ Nr
curtailment punishment and load-shedding fund as the objective.
Step6: Deal with the index of POTBC. If simulation
s.t. ∑ Pg i + ∑ (Pre j − r j) − ∑
, , Pi j
contingencies cause the system to be unstable conditions, set
i ∈ Ng j ∈ Nr i j ∈ li j
(21) POTBC as 1. Otherwise, just calculate the contingency power flow,
= ∑ (Pd, k − dk*)
such by quick-contingency power flow computation through multi-
k ∈ Nb
branch distribution factors.
Pg, min ≤ Pg, i ≤ Pg, max, i ∈ Ng (22) Step7: Count probability distribution of power flow and
calculate the ith iteration adaptability indexes Padapt,i through (1),
0 ≤ r j ≤ Pre, j, j ∈ Nr (23) (2),(5),(6),(9),(10) and (14) respectively.
Step8: Compute expectation of adaptability indexes. The
Pi j = Bi jθi j, i j ∈ li j purpose of this step is to reduce the influence of index instability in
(24)
the beginning:
Pi j, min ≤ Pi j ≤ Pi j, max, i j ∈ li j (25) i
∑k = 1 Padapt, k
Ei = (30)
where ri is the energy-curtailment of bus i. i
With the above two computation stages, Rmax is proposed as Eq.
where Ek represents the expectation of former iterations. Padapt,i is
(26).
the adaptability index of ith iteration.
Step9: Calculate the convergence factor by (33). Stop Monte
Rmax = ∑ (Pre j − r j) , (26) Carlo simulation when max {VEBLR, VCFRB, VOTBC, VAPLS, VACRE}
j ∈ Nr
≤ɛ. Otherwise, update the iteration count by k = k + 1, then return
to step3.
4 Evaluation procedure of structure adaptability
A practical calculation method of structure adaptability is Vσ = ∑ (Ek − Eavg) /(k − 1)/Eavg
2
(31)
presented and the specific steps are introduced as follows: n
Step1: Set system basic parameters. Input initial data of power
system and set simulation count k as 0. In Eq. (31), Vσ and Eavg are respectively on behalf of the
Step2: Get forecast error distribution. The probability convergence factor and the average of array {Ei,i = 1,2…k}.
distribution of forecast error to renewable energy and demand,
respectively, are formed according to the history data and obeyed
the normal distribution. The factual power of demand is computed 5 Case study
as follows: The proposed approach is applied to a modified IEEE 30-bus
system in [11] with the integration of high proportion wind energy.
f cst f cst
P̄load, t = Pload, t + ΔPload, t (27) The wind speed satisfies the Weibull distribution with parameters
W(c,k) = W(11,2). Concentration wind turbines with 120 MW
f cst capacity are joined into bus 3, 18, 24 and 29 respectively, in order
where Pload, t is the forecast demand. ΔPload, t is the forecast error. to form the high-penetration renewable energy system. Moreover,
f cst
And P̄load, t is the factual demand. the fluctuant demand variables are supposed to obey the normal
Considering the time relevance, the adjacent forecast error is distribution, in which the standard deviation approximately equals
supposed to be computed as difference sequence ηt,k: 15% average. Correspondingly, the total demand adds up to 600
MW for rapid increasing sources.
real f cst real f cst
ηt, k = εt + k t − εt + k − 1 t = (Pre , t − Pre, t ) − (Pre, t − 1 − Pre, t − 1) (28)
5.1 Convergence analysis of adaptability index
real
Where Pre and
,t Pref cst
are factual and forecast power of renewable
,t Before evaluating the structure adaptability, it is of great
energy generation at time t. In order to get every time's forecast importance to verify the index consistency. The adaptability
error, we can get the initial error power by sampling from the indexes are computed with Monte Carlo simulation. With the
probability distribution function. Then every time's forecast error sampling number gradually increasing, the changing process of
can be obtained by the difference sequence ηt,k. Similarly, the adaptability indexes and convergence factors is shown in Fig. 1.
factual power of renewable energy is computed as follows: From the perspective of fluctuation, Fig. 1 indicates that the
adaptability indexes universally meet with big local fluctuation in
f cst the beginning. However, all indexes converge to a constant
P̄re, t = Pref cst
, t + ΔPre, t (29)
ultimately with a small fluctuation. Furthermore, the convergence
factors Vσ can be used to display the convergence process of
Step3: Get stochastic scenarios. Monte Carlo method can be used
indexes numerically. Compared with other indexes, PEBLR has the
to give out stochastic renewable energy power and fluctuant
demand, on the basis of error distribution function and day-ahead big convergence factor all the time from the bottom histogram,
forecast. On this paper, Nataf transformation and Latin hypercube which means the average utilisation of branches varies a lot from
sampling method are employed to construct stochastic samples, different stochastic scenarios. Owing to the insufficient sampling
which have the main advantage of high accurate solution with less process at first, the index shows big fluctuation until enough
computation. Also, it is almost unconstrained for the probability samples are joined in. With the decreasing trend, if the threshold ɛ
distributions of the input random variables. The contingencies are is set as 0.01, max{Vσ} satisfies the convergence requirement when
the sampling number gets to 6000. At the same time, we have
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As shown in Table 1, by comparing two scenarios for the AC
network, we can conclude that H-RE decreases the utilisation rate
of branch lines both for AC and AC/DC network, resulting in a
superior drop in PEBLR. Therefore, due to the low utilisation
especially appearing with H-RE, it is of great importance for
transmission expansion to take the utilisation as one of the targets.
H-RE causes power system to be caught in a big fluctuation, where
PCFRB rises from 0.4 to 18.7% especially for AC network.
However, owing to the low load factor of branch lines, the network
structure behaves higher adaptability to contingencies apparently,
which reduces POTBC to 6.9% ultimately. Though PAPLS has a
slight rising with HRE integration, two kinds of structure both have
the ability to supply adequate power for demand. At the same time,
there appears to be a lack of renewable energy for AC network,
which approximately occupies 20.4%.
Comparing the adaptability of AC and AC/DC network in H-
RE power system, because of the automatic adjustment of power
converter, AC/DC structure is adept in homogenising and
Fig. 1 Convergence trend of adaptability index restraining the power flow, which cuts down the fluctuation rate
from 18.7 to 3.2%. However, high contingency rate of electronics,
especially with the characteristic of losing control under
contingency, lead to the absence of contingency adaptability.
Furthermore, the consumption limitation of renewable energy
raises up thanks to the joined DC lines, which can be drawn up
from the changing trend of PACRE.
4 J. Eng.
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Table 1 Results of adaptability index
Type Scenario PEBLR PCFRB POTBC PAPLS PACRE
AC network 1 0.705 0.004 0.520 0.003 0
2 0.321 0.187 0.069 0.054 0.204
AC/DC network 1 0.877 0.001 0.285 0.012 0
2 0.562 0.032 0.219 0.082 0.143
Fig. 3 Trend chart of adaptability index of AC network structure under different ratio of renewable energy
Fig. 4 Trend chart of adaptability index for AC/DC hybrid network structure under different ratio of renewable energy
Table 2 Results of structure adaptability index for different AC/DC hybrid networks
Link type number PEBLR PCFRB POTBC PAPLS PACRE
AC/DC hybrid network 1 0.525 0.067 0.133 0.129 0.236
2 0.608 0.073 0.169 0.092 0.197
3 0.632 0.065 0.209 0.089 0.183
4 0.367 0.090 0.090 0.023 0.143
makes the utmost of the network, which poses superior economic probable to take place for this structure, which gives rise to POTBC
adaptability than other structures. However, over-loading is more 11% higher than structure 4. As for resisting of disturbance, four
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