Comparison between

3C Popularity Rate and

Some Indices of Countries

National Tsing Hua University

Department of Electrical Engineering
Group 13, Jhang, Chuan-Jia 張傳佳
Student ID: 105061224

2019/6/12 1
 Outline

• Motivation
• Survey Sources
• Goodness of Fit Test
• Variance Test
• Linear Regression Analysis
• Non-linear Analysis
• Future Works

2
Motivation
• The influence of 3C product to the world, e.g., smart phone.

• What kind of influence?

• The relation between some indices of countries,

e.g., HDI, GDP, etc.

3
Survey Sources
• Smart Phone Ownership & Internet Usage:
Pew Research Center
• Human Development Index (HDI) & Education Index:
United Nations Development Programme
• Age Distribution:
UNITED NATIONS DESA/POPULATION DIVISION
• GDP per Capital & GNP per Capital:
World Bank
4
 Survey Sources
• Total, Age, Education, Income
• HDI, Education Index, Age Distribution, GDP, GNP

5
https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2016/02/22/smartphone-ownership-and-internet-usage-continues-to-climb-in-emerging-economies/
 Goodness of Fit Test 2
𝜒0.05 ≅ 42.5570
Age Education Income
Less More Lower Higher
TOTAL 18-34 35+
education education income income
ei fi fi fi fi fi fi fi
5 6 5 9 5 5 6 6
5 4 5 1 9 4 5 4
5 2 1 4 4 3 4 2
5 6 3 6 2 3 4 6
5 6 16 4 3 12 5 6
5 6 0 6 7 3 6 6
Chi-Square 2.8 33.2 7.2 6.8 12.4 0.8 2.8
Conclusion H0 H0 H0 H0 H0 H0 H0

7
 Goodness of Fit Test 2
𝜒0.05 ≅ 42.5570

Education GDP per GNP per

HDI Age Distribution
index capital capital
0-14 15-59 60+ 80+
ei fi fi fi fi fi fi fi fi
5 6 4 0 0 6 5 6 3
5 2 4 15 15 6 4 8 13
5 7 6 6 6 4 5 2 1
5 3 3 0 0 6 4 4 4
5 5 8 2 2 3 7 2 3
5 7 5 7 7 5 5 8 6
Chi-Square 4.4 3.2 32.8 32.8 1.6 1.2 7.6 18
Conclusion H0 H0 H0 H0 H0 H0 H0 H0

8
 Variance Test 2
𝜒0.05 ≅ 42.5570

Age Education Income

Less More Lower Higher
TOTAL 18-34 35+
education education income income
% % % % % % %
Average 58.53333 75.43333 47.6 39.7 78.7 44.76667 70.16667
Variance 23.26272 26.49877 25.35078 26.70677 18.4038 23.87422 23.609
Exp. Std. 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
Chi-Square 39.2337 50.9084 46.593 51.7108 24.5558 41.3234 40.4104
Conclusion H0 H1 H1 H1 H0 H0 H0

10
Regression Analysis
Total 3C Popularity Rate vs. Indices of Countries

11
 Total vs. HDI
Total vs. HDI 100

Total (Y)
80
迴歸統計 60
R 的倍數 0.921187778 40 Y
R 平方 0.848586923 20 預測 Y
調整的 R 平方 0.843179313
標準誤 9.212173778
0
觀察值個數 30 0 0.5 1
HDI

係數 標準誤 t 統計 P-值
截距 -52.81736028 9.046609066-5.838359974 2.82966E-06
X 變數 1 148.0268006 11.81666333 12.52695422 5.36877E-13

12
 Total vs. Edu. Index
Total vs. Edu. Index 100
80
60

Total
迴歸統計
R 的倍數 0.897946188 40 Y
R 平方 0.806307356 20 預測 Y
調整的 R 平方 0.799389762 0
標準誤 10.41926281 0 0.5 1
觀察值個數 30
Education

係數 標準誤 t 統計 P-值
截距 -25.58854712 8.020623708-3.190343799 0.003489315
X 變數 1 120.5011896 11.16139739 10.79624579 1.72744E-11

13
 Total vs. GDP
Total vs. GDP 100
80

Total
60
迴歸統計
R 的倍數 0.794700865 40 Y
R 平方 0.631549464 20 預測 Y
調整的 R 平方 0.618390516 0
標準誤 14.37043866
0 20000 40000 60000
觀察值個數 30
GDP per Capital

係數 標準誤 t 統計 P-值
截距 41.54988079 3.590756133 11.57134577 3.49658E-12
X 變數 1 0.0010581 0.000152733 6.927764323 1.56854E-07

14
 Total vs. GNP
Total vs. GNP 100
80

Total
60
迴歸統計 40 Y
R 的倍數 0.790042587
R 平方 0.62416729 20 預測 Y
調整的 R 平方 0.610744693 0
標準誤 14.5136858 0 20000 40000 60000
觀察值個數 30 GNP per Capital

係數 標準誤 t 統計 P-值
截距 41.62996355 3.628499219 11.47305292 4.26488E-12
X 變數 1 0.000998289 0.000146394 6.819181194 2.08168E-07

15
Age Distribution
Total vs. Age 0~14 Total vs. Age 15~59
100 100
90 90
80 80
70 70
60 60
Total

Total
50 50
40 Y 40 Y
30 預測 Y 30 預測 Y
20
10
𝑨𝒅𝒋. 𝑹𝟐 ≅ 𝟎. 𝟓𝟓𝟔𝟓 20
10
𝑨𝒅𝒋. 𝑹𝟐 ≅ 𝟎. 𝟎𝟒𝟐𝟖
0 0
0 10 20 30 40 50 0 20 40 60 80
Age 0~14 Age 15~59

Total vs. Age 60+ Total vs. Age 80+

100 100
90 90
80 80
70 70
60

Total
60
Total

50 50
Y 40 Y
40
30 預測 Y 30 預測 Y
20 𝑨𝒅𝒋. 𝑹𝟐 ≅ 𝟎. 𝟓𝟑𝟒𝟏 20
10
𝑨𝒅𝒋. 𝑹𝟐 ≅ 𝟎. 𝟒𝟖𝟓𝟑
10
0 0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 0 2 4 6 8 10
Age 60+ Age 80+

16
Regression Analysis
Sub-Items 3C Popularity Rate vs. Indices of Countries

17
 Less/More Education vs. Edu. Index
Less Education vs. Edu. Index High Education vs. Edu. Index
80 100

High Education
80
Less Education

60
60
40
Y 40 Y
20 預測 Y 預測 Y
20
0
0
0 0.5 1 0 0.5 1
-20
Edu. Index Edu. Index

𝑨𝒅𝒋. 𝑹𝟐 ≅ 𝟎. 𝟓𝟗𝟒𝟏 𝑨𝒅𝒋. 𝑹𝟐 ≅ 𝟎. 𝟑𝟕𝟎𝟔

係數 標準誤 t 統計 P-值 係數 標準誤 t 統計 P-值
截距 -44.1723 13.09731 -3.37263 0.002192 截距 32.27857 11.23935 2.871926 0.007692
X 變數 1 120.1437 18.22605 6.591869 3.78E-07 X 變數 1 66.49682 15.64053 4.25157 0.000213
18
 Lower/Higher Income vs. GNP per Capital
Lower Income vs. GNP per Capital Higher Income vs. GNP per Capital
100 100
80 80

Higher Income
Lower Income

60 60
40 Y 40 Y
20 預測 Y 20 預測 Y

0 0
0 20000 40000 60000 80000 0 20000 40000 60000 80000
GNP per Capital GNP per Capital

𝑨𝒅𝒋. 𝑹𝟐 ≅ 𝟎. 𝟕𝟎𝟐𝟑 𝑨𝒅𝒋. 𝑹𝟐 ≅ 𝟎. 𝟓𝟑𝟏𝟗

係數 標準誤 t 統計 P-值 係數 標準誤 t 統計 P-值
截距 26.23086 3.256483 8.054965 9.03E-09 截距 54.09125 4.038104 13.39521 1.07E-13
X 變數 1 0.001095 0.000131 8.331988 4.59E-09 X 變數 1 0.000949 0.000163 5.827344 2.92E-06
19
Multiple Regression

20
Total vs. Edu. Index+Age Distribution+GDP
Multiple Regression Line
Y= −𝟏𝟐. 𝟗𝟔 + 𝟗𝟓. 𝟒𝟐𝑿𝟏 − 𝟎. 𝟎𝟓𝑿𝟐 + 𝟑. 𝟓𝟖 × 𝟏𝟎−𝟑 × 𝑿𝟑

𝒀 Total 3C Popularity Rate

𝑋1 Education Index
𝑋2 (Age 60+) + (Age 80+)
𝑋3 GNP per Capital

21
 Total vs. Edu. Index+Age Distribution+GDP
Total vs. Edu. Index Total vs. Age Distribution Total vs. GDP
100 100 100
Total

Total

Total
50 50 50
Y Y Y
預測 Y 預測 Y 預測 Y
0 0 0
0 0.5 1 0 20 40 60 0 50000 100000
Edu. Index Age Distribution GDP

迴歸統計 係數 標準誤 t 統計 P-值

R 的倍數 0.91226 截距 -13.694 10.24815 -1.33624 0.193049
R 平方 0.832219 X 變數 1 97.27288 19.04779 5.106779 2.54E-05
調整的 R 平方 0.81286 X 變數 2 -0.07795 0.31288 -0.24915 0.805201
標準誤 10.06339 X 變數 3 0.000332 0.000175 1.900115 0.068562
觀察值個數 30
22
Non-linear Regression Analysis

23
Logarithmic Relation
Higher Income vs. GNP per Capital
100
80
Higher Income

60
40 Y
預測 Y
20
0
0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000
GNP per Capital
24
 𝑦 = log10 𝑥
y=log10x
1
0.5
0
-0.5
y

-1
-1.5
-2
-2.5
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5
x
25
Logarithmic Regression Line
Higher Income vs. GNP (log)
150

Higher Income
迴歸統計
R 的倍數 0.794700865 100
R 平方 0.631549464
調整的 R 平方 0.618390516 50 Y
標準誤 14.37043866 預測 Y
觀察值個數 30 0
0 2 4 6
GNP per Capital
𝑦 = 41.550 + 0.001 × log10 𝑥
係數 標準誤 t 統計 P-值
截距 41.54988079 3.590756133 11.57134577 3.49658E-12
X 變數 1 0.0010581 0.000152733 6.927764323 1.56854E-07

26
Future Works
• Find the cause-effect relation between them

• Compare the data in 2015 to 2018 to check the trends

27
Source URL
• Smart Phone Ownership & Internet Usage:
https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2016/02/22/smartphone-ownership-
and-internet-usage-continues-to-climb-in-emerging-economies/
• Human Development Index (HDI):
http://hdr.undp.org/en/data#
• Education Index:
http://hdr.undp.org/en/data#
• Age Distribution
https://population.un.org/wpp/Publications/

28
Source URL
• GDP per Capital:
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?end=2015&start=1960
• GNP per Capital:
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GNP.PCAP.CD?end=2015&order=wbapi_d
ata_value_2014+wbapi_data_value+wbapi_data_value-last&sort=desc&start=1962

29
Thank you for listening!!
National Tsing Hua University
Department of Electrical Engineering
Group 13, Jhang, Chuan-Jia 張傳佳
Student ID: 105061224

2019/6/12 30