Delphi Method

Definition:
‘’A group communication structure used to facilitate communication on a specific task. The
method usually involves anonymity of responses, feedback to the group as a whole of
individual and/or collective views and the opportunity for any respondent to modify an earlier
judgment.’’

The most important factor in this process is anonymity. It helps avoiding two effects among
participants which allows them to freely express their opinions, bandwagon effect (the
observation that people often do (or believe) things because many other people do (or
believe) the same) & halo effect (when a person's perception of another is influenced by their
appearance).

The Delphi method is well known method used for forecasting. The method is usually
conducted asynchronously via paper and mail but can be executed within a computerized
conferencing environment. At the essence of the method is the question of how best to tailor
the communication process to suit the situation. The Delphi method was originally developed
at the RAND Corporation by Olaf Helmer and Norman Dalkey. (Murray Turoff)

Description:

How it works?
Delphi method can be explained in following steps:

Define the Problem:

Identify the problem that you want to work on, writing it down in a clear way that is easy to
understand. This can be in various forms, from a questionnaire to a broad and open question.
You can work on one problem and you can work on several problems at once. The
constraint is usually the bandwidth and expertise of the people in the Delphi group.

Distribute the Problem:

A panel of carefully selected experts is asked to reply to a series of questionnaires. The group
can comprise small group of participants or it can reach a number of hundreds. Usually a
group of 20 is appropriate. The purpose of this is to reach consensus about an opinion or
view. This method does not bound the participants to physically gather at place, this practice
can be carried out easily via e-mail or other ways. Distribute the questionnaire among the
participants and ask them respond.
Gather Feedback on Questionnaire:

After first round collect the feedback and collate it to a list or set of list. This set of list(s)
must be as easy as possible for the participants to read during the second round. In the
second round participants are asked to revise their answers in the light replies from the other
participants.
Repeat as necessary:

This process is repeated in several rounds until the number of answers has sufficiently
decreased to reach final answers.

Flow Chart: (source: Reyerson University, Canada)

Problem
Select panel members
Start
based on the expertise
Definitio
required
n

Analyse Prepare and

distribute
questionnair
e responses questionnaire

Has a
consensus Provide requested
been NO
information and
reached?
tabulated
responses – restart
from point 4

YES

Develop final
report