Proceding National Conference of Civil Engineering 1st

May 2017
ISSN : 2549-287X

Seismic Hazard Analysis Based On Modelling Earthquake Source With Using

Probabilistic Methods In The Region Of Papua

Kathana Didin Fakhrudin1, I R. Palupi2, A Y. Mujahidin3, Suharsono4, Y K. Munandar5

Geophysical Eng., UPN “V” Yogyakarta, E-mail : kathanagf@gmail.com
[1]
[2]
Geophysical Eng., UPN “V” Yogyakarta, E-mail : inder13101986@gmail.com
[3]
Geophysical Eng., UPN “V” Yogyakarta, E-mail : yahyaasadullah@gmail.com
[4]
Geophysical Eng., UPN “V” Yogyakarta, E-mail : harsonomgl550@gmail.com
[5]
Geological Eng., UPN “V” Yogyakarta, E-mail : yulian.kurnia@yahoo.co.id

Abstract

Papua is prone area to earthquakes because it is an area that is geologically very complex involving an
interaction between three plates, the Australian Plate, the Pacific Plate and the Eurasia Plate. Efforts to mitigate
buildings damage which resulted from the earthquake is an important part that must be done by the government,
so it is needed a study of seismic hazard analysis using PSHA method (Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis) to
determine the level of hazard that can be used for earthquake-resistant design standards. Workflows in this
research are; review and study of literature, collect data from various catalogs between 1900 to 2015, data
processing, modeling of seismic source zones, and seismic hazard analysis based on PGA value (peak ground
acceleration) and based on the response spectra value in bedrock. The results of this research are earthquake
hazard map based on PGA value (peak ground acceleration), earthquake hazard map based on SA value (spectral
analysis) for periods 0.2 and 1.0 sec which shows some areas of Papua are in high-hazard zones.

Keywords : Seismic Hazard, Earthquake Source Modelling, PSHA Method

Abstrak

Papua merupakan daerah rawan gempa karena secara geologi merupakan daerah yang sangat kompleks yang
melibatkan interaksi antara tiga lempeng, Lempeng Australia, Lempeng Pasifik dan Lempeng Eurasia. Upaya
mitigasi keursakan bangunan yang diakibatkan gempa bumi merupakan bagian penting yang harus dilakukan
oleh pemerintah, sehingga diperlukan suatu studi analisis resiko gempa dengan menggunakan metode PSHA
(Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis) untuk menentukan tingkat bahaya yang dapat digunakan untuk standar
desain tahan gempa. Tahapan yang dilakukan dalam penelitian ini adalah ; review dan studi literatur,
mengumpulkan data dari berbagai katalog antara 1900-2015, pengolahan data, pemodelan zona sumber gempa,
dan analisis seismic hazard berdasarkan nilai PGA (peak ground acceleration) dan berdasarkan pada nilai
respon spektra di batuan dasar. Hasil penelitian ini adalah peta bahaya gempa berdasarkan nilai PGA (peak
ground acceleration), peta bahaya gempa berdasarkan nilai SA (spectral analysis) untuk periode 0,2 dan 1,0
detik yang menunjukkan beberapa daerah di Papua berada di zona bahaya tinggi.

Kata kunci : Bahaya Seismik, Pemodelan Sumber Gempa, Metode PSHA

1. Introduction

Papua is vulnerable from earthquake due to Papua is meeting place of two plates, Pacific plates in
northwest and Indo-Australia plates in the south. Furthermore, Papua has many active faults such as
Yapen Fault, Terra-aidun Fault, Sorong Fault, Ransiki Fault, Mamberamo Thrust Belt, Manokwari
Trench, Highland Thrust Belt, and Waipago Fault. Papua tectonic characteristics can be divided into
two sections, bird body section (Eastern Papua) and bird head section (Western Papua). The main
elements of Papua geological structure more dominant in West Papua such as Sorong Fault, Kemum-
Plateau Ayamaru Blok, Ransiki Fault, Anjakan Lengguru fold path, Bintuni, and Salawati Basin,
Terra-Aidun Fault, Misool-Onin-Kumawa Anticline, and Berau Basin in south and southwest. Pasific-

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ISSN : 2549-287X

Caroline plate movement is 7,5 cm/year from west to southwest. Indo-Australian plate plate
movement is 10,5 cm/year in the north. West Papua has a complex geological structure which mainly
formed by Indo-Australia continental crust.

Associated with tectonic conditions in the Papua region, which so active that is potentially causing
earthquakes that can impact the material losses or fatalities. Therefore it is needed a research for
potential earthquake areas and one of it is doing a risk analysis of earthquakes that can be used as a
basis for reference planning mitigation and earthquake-resistant buildings in the Papua region.

This research result is an earthquake hazard map based on the PGA (peak ground acceleration) value
mapping using PSHA (Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis) method at Papua Island in the form
earthquake hazard map based SA (spectral analysis) with 0,2 second period, and earthquake hazard
map based SA (spectral analysis) with 1 second period.

2. Methods

2.1 Collect Data From Catalog

Data that used for this research is catalog data from USGS (United States Geological Survey), ISC
(International Seismological Center) EHB Bulletin, and NCEDC (Northern California Earthquake
Data Center) which taken from 1900 until 2015. Earthquake magnitude that used in this research is 5-
8,5 Mw with the hypocenter depth between 0-300 Km.

2.2 Magnitude Scale Conversion

The magnitude of earthquake data from each catalog does not match each other. During processing
data of earthquake hazard analysis, magnitude scale conversion data is important to match data from
each catalog. This research uses moment magnitude (Mw). Moment magnitude measures the size of
events in terms of how much energy is released. This is magnitude correlation between each region in
Indonesia:

Mw = 0,143M2s – 1,051Ms + 7,285 (1)

Mw = 0,114M2b – 0,556Ms + 5,560 (2)
Mw = 0,787ME + 1,537 (3)
Mb = 0,125M2L – 0,389ML + 3,513 (4)
ML = 0,717MD + 1,003 (5)

notes:
M s is magnitude surface
M b is magnitude body
M E is magnitude energy
M L is local magnitude
M D is magnitude displacement

2.3 Mainshock Earthquake Sorting

Mainshock earthquake data sorting in seismic earthquake hazard analysis is a process of separation
between the main earthquake (mainshock) and aftershock. Empirical criteria to identify the major
seismic events based on a period of time and a certain distance from major earthquakes.

2.4 Input Earthquake Parameters

Input parameter for hypocenter identification and modeling including location, dimension, mechanism
type of earthquake, and level of activity based on catalog and research. Earthquake models that used in
this research are subduction, fault, and background earthquake.

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2.5 A Dan B-Value Parameter

A and b-value parameter in seismic hazard analysis is used to describe the frequency of earthquakes of
a seismic source. Based on recurrence laws Gutenberg-Richter, the number of earthquake event is
equal or higher than magnitude m determined by equation
λm= a-bm (6)

The a -value indicates the overall rate of earthquakes in a region, and the b-value indicates the relative
ratio of small and large magnitudes. b-value parameter determined using maximum likelihood
method.
𝑙𝑜𝑔10 ℯ (7)
𝑏=
𝑀 − 𝑀1

M is middle value of magnitude which higher than Mi, the minimum magnitude in this model must
exactly at minimum magnitude completeness of research area. The calculation result of a and b-value
based on historical data which megathrust occurred.

2.6 Attenuation
To overcome the problems which affect intensity-based ground motion estimates, a new technique is
proposed for the estimation of acceleration attenuation functions for regions with inadequate strong
ground motion data for the generation of empirical functions. This method utilizes a site intensity-
acceleration correlation but on a much more restricted basis than previously used techniques. A
limited amount of instrumental observations is required but in a form which can generally be obtained
for regions of low seismic activity and short histories of instrumental coverage. The method is
dependent on three assumptions. The first assumption is that some functional form exists which can
depict the characteristics of peak acceleration attenuation in any region. The second assumption that is
made is that earthquakes having equal epicentral intensity, the epicentral intensity will have equal
levels of peak acceleration at short epicentral distances. The basis of this third assumption is that the
limit of the felt area is defined by the perception of acceleration by humans. The most commonly used
function for acceleration attenuation equations is of the form.

ln(A) = C1 + C2M + C3ln(R + C5) + C4R + ɛ, (8)

notes :
ɛ : N(0,σɛ2)
A : PGA or spectra acceleration(g)
M : magnitude (Mw)
R : hiposenter (km)

Figure1. Earthquake ditribution with Mw >5 and 0-300 Km depth based from
USGS, ISC, EHB Bulletin adn NCEDC earthquake catalouge

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2.7 Logic Tree

Logic tree is used to solve uncertainty parameter calculation of seismic hazard analysis. The logic tree
allows choosing several alternative methods or models to determine the weighting factor represents
the percentage likelihood relative accuracy of one model and another model. The model is a series of a
nodal logic tree (node) is represented as a point where the model is specified and the branch that
represents a different model that is specified on each node.

2.8 Pga (Peak Ground Acceleration)

USGS-PSHA-07 used to determinate peak ground acceleration (PGA) value in this research. Models
from this research based on seismic hazard analysis from each epicenter due to subduction, fault, and
background earthquake. The result of seismic hazard analysis is PGA map on basement rock in the
research area with 10 % and 2% probability at 50 years of building safety plan (475 to 2475 years
earthquake period) with grind space 0,1° × 0,1°.

3. Results and Discussion

Data result from software USGS-PSHA-07 shows that PGA value is affected by subduction
earthquake, fault earthquake, background earthquake, also all earthquake data event from research
area with exceeding probability 10% in 50 years of building safety plan. PGA value will be decreased
according to distance.

Maximum PGA map (Figure4 and 5) shows that PGA value at this area affected by subduction
earthquake from Megathrust in North Banda Sea Segment (from west Papua). Maximum PGA value is
0.56 g for exceed probability 10% and 1.05 g for exceeding probability 2%. PGA value at fault area
came from Ransiki fault, Yapen, Sorong, North Papua Thrust, Manokwari Trench, East Sorong, West
Sorong, Waipago, Membrano, Highland, and Terra-Aidun. PGA value from that segment is 1.2 g for
exceeding probability 10% (Figure2) and 1.6 g for exceeding probability 2% (Figure3).

PGA at the center of Papua is high due to many shallow earthquake events that occur outside fault
zone and the subduction zone. Furthermore, that earthquake still unidentified about its mechanism and
geometry. PGA value from that segment is 0.46 g for exceeding probability 10% (Figure6) and 0.7 g
for exceeding probability 2% (Figure7).

All earthquake data event including subduction earthquake, fault earthquake, and background
earthquake. PGA value from all earthquake data event are 1.2 g for exceed probability 10% (Figure8)
and 1.6 g for exceeding probability 2% (Figure9). PGA value for SA 0,2 sec is 1.2 g for exceed
probability 10% (Figure10) and 1.6 g for exceed probability 2% (Figure11). PGA value for SA 1 sec is
1.2 g for exceed probability 10% (Figure12) and 1.6 g for exceeding probability 2% (Figure13).

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Figure 2. Fault earthquake hazard map with Figure 3. Fault earthquake hazard map with
10% percent probability in 50 years 2% percent probability in 50 years

Figure 4. Subduction earthquake hazard Figure 5. Subduction earthquake hazard

map with 10% percent probability in 50 map with 2% percent probability in 50
years years

Figure 6. Background earthquake hazard Figure 7. Background earthquake hazard

map with 10% percent probability in 50 map with 2% percent probability in 50
years years

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Figure 8. PGA of all earthquake data with Figure 9. PGA of all earthquake data with
10% percent probability in 50 years 2% percent probability in 50 years

Figure 10. Hazard map of all earthquake Figure 11. Hazard map of all earthquake
event data with 10% probability (SA 0,2 sec) event data with 2% probability (SA 0,2 sec)
in 50 years in 50 years

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Figure 12. Hazard map of all earthquake Figure 13. Hazard map of all earthquake
event data with 10% probability (SA 1 sec) event data with 2% probability (SA 1 sec)
in 50 years in 50 years

4. Conclusion

Earthquake hazard map in Papua for PE 10% in 50 years on the PGA has a value of 0.07669 g -
1.24701 g, SA at T = 0.2 seconds has a value of 0.19028 g - 3.38784 g, and SA at T = 1 second has a
value of 0.05481 g - 0.08723 g. While earthquake hazard map for PE 2% in 50 years on the PGA has a
value of 0.12322 g - 1.93712 g, SA at T = 0.2 seconds to get value of 0.31465 g - 6.50941 g and SA at
T = 1 second has a value of 0.08723 g - 1.6339 g. Overall If we see hazard map for Papua that areas
with high PGA values located in the central part of the Papua Island.

References

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), 2015, Advanced National Seismic System Comprehensive Catalog, USA,
http://earthquake.usgs.gov, (Diakses 02/02/2015).

Asrurifak, M., 2010, Peta Respon Spektra Indonesia untuk Perencanaan Struktur Bangunan Tahan Gempa
Berdasarkan Model Sumber Gempa Tiga Dimensi dalam Analisis Probabillitas, Disertasi, Program Studi
Teknik Sipil, ITB, Bandung.

Badan Meteorologi Klimatologi dan Geofisika (BMKG), 2015, Repositori Gempa,

http://repogempa.bmkg.go.id/repository.php?id=101&session_id=a0euhlvT, (Diakses 02/02/2015).

Guttenberg, B. and Richter, C., 1944, Frequency of Earthquake in California, Bulletin of Seismological Society
of America, Vol. 34.

Irsyam, M., dkk, 2010, Ringkasan Hasil Studi Tim Revisi Peta Gempa 2010. Bandung.

McGuire, R.K., 1976. Seismic Structural Response Risk Analysis, Incorporating Peak Response Regresions on
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